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I would be very curious to find out how many men of fighting age are now actively returning to Ukraine. Border traffic is more or less being documented. Ukrayinska Pravda is claiming 80k but, you know.
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Mar 2, 2022 08:59
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I want to know how quickly Ukraine can field all these new weapons and deploy all these new troops. With all this artillery pouring into Ukraine and news reports of airstrikes its sounding like the Ukranians are starting to take losses or are getting suppressed and can't hold the line anymore.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:00
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lifetime supply of Pocky posted:i’m not playing dumb here (just actual dumb), but if they’re paying Russian national staff in rubles, won’t they just keep paying them in those, regardless of inflation spiraling out of control or not? I think the more important implications from what is discussed in the article is that lenders will see Russia as an extremely risky borrower so it will be very very expensive for the Russian government to borrow money. If they can't borrow money to fund government expenditure then it has to come from someplace else. I am assuming their tax revenues won't be amazing now a lot of their businesses can't export poo poo. They could just print money, but that probably isn't going to help the inflation situation.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:07
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steinrokkan posted:Here's one weird trick about conscription
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Mar 2, 2022 09:09
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Kavros posted:I would be very curious to find out how many men of fighting age are now actively returning to Ukraine. Border traffic is more or less being documented. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/1/7327246/ Dunno how accurate those figures are.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:09
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Also this has bounced around a couple of times but you can't really just call up a new shipper/factory and go "Hi yes due to reasons I now need you to fulfill a large portion of my countries import needs" That poo poo takes time to spool up (if whoever you call can even meet your demands in a reasonble time) get transportation and stuff sorted, etc etc.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:10
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As someone who's started dabbling in cyrillic - what the hell does the Ь even do?
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Mar 2, 2022 09:10
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Telsa Cola posted:Also this has bounced around a couple of times but you can't really just call up a new shipper/factory and go "Hi yes due to reasons I now need you to fulfill a large portion of my countries import needs"
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Mar 2, 2022 09:12
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Nessus posted:I imagine it also helps if, for instance, you quietly prepare for this turn of events a couple of years ahead of time. Sure, if you have stockpiles and your reasonably certain that your stockpiles will last until everything gets sorted. But also things might not get sorted for months/years.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:13
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Kraftwerk posted:I want to know how quickly Ukraine can field all these new weapons and deploy all these new troops. With all this artillery pouring into Ukraine and news reports of airstrikes its sounding like the Ukranians are starting to take losses or are getting suppressed and can't hold the line anymore. I'd hazard a guess that new troop deployments amount to "hey, guys who just showed up at the army office in your city, here's an AK each and maybe some gear, go to X Street and man the barricade". Fielding weapons is slightly different but probably boils down to "how fast can you drive a truck down the back roads from Lviv to Kyiv and give what's in the back to the guys in the first paragraph".
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Mar 2, 2022 09:13
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Mr. Sunshine posted:As someone who's started dabbling in cyrillic - what the hell does the Ь even do? It's a softening sound. The kind of weird slavic sounds that Westerners cannot pronounce properly. It's like 'Ć' in Polish, instead of 'CI'.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:14
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GABA ghoul posted:Indefinitely, since they are all paid in Rubles(or the professional soldiers at least, the 18 years old conscript kids don't get paid at all IIRC). The sanctions are not going to affect Russia's war-making ability short term. Everything they need to pound Ukrainian cities into dust they can make domestically and without even touching a US Dollar or Euro. Yeah, there's no way the sanctions directly affect the military except for some replacements parts they probably have a stash for. Sanctions and the threat of asset seizure are a threat to ruin Russia's economy and society so thoroughly that the 1991 Soviet collapse will look mild by comparison. And this is with a population much more accustomed to ease and luxury products. From a cynical point of view, the West only helped made Russian lives better so that they would more severely feel the difference when everything is taken away.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:15
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lifetime supply of Pocky posted:i’m not playing dumb here (just actual dumb), but if they’re paying Russian national staff in rubles, won’t they just keep paying them in those, regardless of inflation spiraling out of control or not? gay picnic defence posted:If the troops don't have phones on them I'm not sure they'd even know if they'd been paid. It was brought up before that a large number of the Russian troops currently fighting in Ukraine were fresh conscripts supposedly recently coerced into signing professional contracts with the carrot of them only being a couple of months in duration. If that is really the case, then even if the troops are currently unaware of developments outside of their immediate situation of being shot at in a foreign country, they'd expect to be out of there personally when their contracts expire. If the conflict lasts that long, that could be a yet another bomb under Russia's plans as it has to either to rotate in fresh troops who'd presumably be a bit more aware of what's going on, or find a way to force the conscripts to stay and deal with the additional hit to morale that will undoubtedly bring with it.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:16
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Telsa Cola posted:Sure, if you have stockpiles and your reasonably certain that your stockpiles will last until everything gets sorted. But also things might not get sorted for months/years.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:16
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Telsa Cola posted:Sure, if you have stockpiles and your reasonably certain that your stockpiles will last until everything gets sorted. But also things might not get sorted for months/years. It seems like maybe they they didn't stockpile enough of some things given the rumours of them running out of precision bombs and missiles. It would not come as any surprise to me that 30 years of corruption and rot has seen significant amounts of stuff get sold off by base commanders etc.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:21
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Anyone have an explainer on Turkey's current position with regards to Russia in Syria? They seem determined to poke the Russians in the eye at the present
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Mar 2, 2022 09:23
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Nessus posted:Oh I meant more you could actually like, prepare internal production capacity. Of course, spending money on that is money you can't steal. I don't think it's even possible for stuff like semiconductors. Russia doesn't have the capital, know-how or access to patents/equipment to create a domestic competitive industry. China has been trying it for a couple of years now and they are making steady progresses, but it's slow. And Russia ain't no China. For example, Russia produces millions of cars per year which all need off-the-shelf and custom designed integrated circuits. Getting the off-the-shelf stuff in large quantities through middle-men is going to drive up the production costs a lot. Replacing the custom designed stuff will take time and money for redesign and also makes the products less competitive(who the gently caress would buy a new car without stability control, air bags, an engine immobilizer, or central locking, etc., it probably wouldn't even be street legal in half of the world)
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Mar 2, 2022 09:27
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ronya posted:Anyone have an explainer on Turkey's current position with regards to Russia in Syria? They seem determined to poke the Russians in the eye at the present They are back different sides. See also the Libyan Civil War.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:27
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ronya posted:Anyone have an explainer on Turkey's current position with regards to Russia in Syria? They seem determined to poke the Russians in the eye at the present It's weird, Erdogan and Putin seemed to have a kind of strongman dictator bromance thing going on for a few years but then they started clashing over Syria and a couple of Russian jets got shot down.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:27
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Terminally Bored posted:It's a softening sound. The kind of weird slavic sounds that Westerners cannot pronounce properly. It's like 'Ć' in Polish, instead of 'CI'. I once got into an almost Abbot and Costello routine with my Russian history professor (a Hungarian) trying to pronounce Pskov. I could not say it right no matter which way I tried pronouncing it.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:28
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Nessus posted:Oh I meant more you could actually like, prepare internal production capacity. Of course, spending money on that is money you can't steal. Eh I'm not an expert on it but for a bunch of fairly complicated things I dont think you can just spin up a domestic industry wholecloth in a couple years and also have it meet your demands.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:34
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:I'd hazard a guess that new troop deployments amount to "hey, guys who just showed up at the army office in your city, here's an AK each and maybe some gear, go to X Street and man the barricade". They've had conscription since the invasion of Crimea, I read they had 400k veterans in their 20s that they just had to arm and organize and send out.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:35
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Speaking of Turkey it seems like they've delivered more Bayraktars. The OG source is said to be Oleksii Reznikov's (Ukraine Minister of Defense) FB post. https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1498920567830990852
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Mar 2, 2022 09:38
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Mustard Iceman posted:Transnistria has about as many people in it as Omaha, Nebraska, and two-thirds of them aren't even Russian... a strange place to be so interested in. jonboy8871 fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 09:40
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Mr. Sunshine posted:As someone who's started dabbling in cyrillic - what the hell does the Ь even do? An equivalent in English would be when a word ends in E and it changes the vowel sound of the word: Grim-Grime, Sin-Sine etc. The E isn't there to be pronounced but to modify the sound of the word. kemikalkadet fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 09:42
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steinrokkan posted:Here's one weird trick about conscription Another weird trick is paying them in your own currency. Tom Clancy is Dead posted:Speaking of Turkey it seems like they've delivered more Bayraktars. The OG source is said to be Oleksii Reznikov's (Ukraine Minister of Defense) FB post. They'll be really useful next to the 70 migs.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:42
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ronya posted:Anyone have an explainer on Turkey's current position with regards to Russia in Syria? They seem determined to poke the Russians in the eye at the present Erdogan is more willing to work with Putin than the rest of NATO because he doesn't have to give a poo poo about democracy or civil rights, but on the other hand Turkey and Russia are (and pretty much always have been) strategic rivals. Weakening Russia strengthens Turkey's position in Syria and the Caucasus, and Turkey has an obvious interest in limiting Russia's control of the Black Sea.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:44
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GABA ghoul posted:I don't think it's even possible for stuff like semiconductors. Russia doesn't have the capital, know-how or access to patents/equipment to create a domestic competitive industry. China has been trying it for a couple of years now and they are making steady progresses, but it's slow. And Russia ain't no China. I don't think they would even have the capability of designing those new custom designed stuff or redesign anything if they even wanted to. Most of that software on the more advanced side is based in the US. China is just now trying to get there.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:44
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Telsa Cola posted:Eh I'm not an expert on it but for a bunch of fairly complicated things I dont think you can just spin up a domestic industry wholecloth in a couple years and also have it meet your demands. Given the economic situation they're in I think they need a resolution to this in weeks rather than the sort of timeframes required to make significant changes to their manufacturing capabilities. If they already had production lines making semiconductors or circuit boards they could make some new jigs or whatever and switch them over to making designs/patterns they can't import. If they had to start from scratch there's going to be a fuckton of specialised manufacturing plant and equipment that they probably don't have the expertise to make domestically and can't import. Even expanding existing munitions and tank/vehicle/plane manufacturing to cover losses in the conflict may well be impossible unless they have unused production lines that they can spin up without needing to import new tools.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:47
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Mar 2, 2022 09:52
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Russia redesigns the Volkswagon Thing so they can sell cars with no electronics. Time to get back to basics.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:52
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Something bad: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498928659683491842 Something good: https://twitter.com/NDmytriiev/status/1498559858286678023
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Mar 2, 2022 09:53
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mongeese posted:I don't think they would even have the capability of designing those new custom designed stuff or redesign anything if they even wanted to. Most of that software on the more advanced side is based in the US. China is just now trying to get there. Yeah, agreed. I was thinking more towards product redesigns, i.e. removing features like stability control, sophisticated control panels, etc. Basically going back to 90s technology. The cars will still sell in Russia if there are import bans on western cars, but the damage to the competitiveness of the industry will be massive. We had a similar situation here in Germany recently with many car mega factories being shut down for weeks and even months due to supply chain issues with integrated circuits. It was an extremely expensive experience. Russia has millions of jobs that depend on car manufacturing so this is going to be a disaster for the population.
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Mar 2, 2022 09:59
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kemikalkadet posted:An equivalent in English would be when a word ends in E and it changes the vowel sound of the word: Grim-Grime, Sin-Sine etc. The E isn't there to be pronounced but to modify the sound of the word. An excellent example. Thanks!
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Mar 2, 2022 10:03
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Azov flag on the right
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Mar 2, 2022 10:13
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GABA ghoul posted:Yeah, agreed. I was thinking more towards product redesigns, i.e. removing features like stability control, sophisticated control panels, etc. Basically going back to 90s technology. The cars will still sell in Russia if there are import bans on western cars, but the damage to the competitiveness of the industry will be massive. Most of the Russian car manufacturing is for European, Korean and to an extent Japanese and American companies. They will likely shut down regardless, so the inability to import electronics is just the icing on the cake
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Mar 2, 2022 10:14
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Tomberforce posted:Howitzers sitting in a mudpit have a real second world war aesthetic don't they. I had a laugh to myself when it occurred to me that Russia might conceivably lose this war due to Putin being an old man who grew up before global warming started in earnest who doesn't realize February just isn't cold enough to freeze the ground anymore. ronya posted:Anyone have an explainer on Turkey's current position with regards to Russia in Syria? They seem determined to poke the Russians in the eye at the present They're not huge fans of Russia from rivalry in Syria as well as Russian influence directly east of them in Armenia, plus their historic spheres of influence overlap and both are led by men who want to bring back old imperial glory so that matters. There's also the fact that Turkey wants to develop its arms industry so when official Turkish sources post about the Bayraktar drones it's a bit of a commercial from them. They got known when Azerbaijan smoked Armenia's army with them, and if Ukraine does the same to Russia you can bet every Turkish arms salesman will be pitching the magic weapon that lets underdogs triumph over major powers.
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Mar 2, 2022 10:14
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:Speaking of Turkey it seems like they've delivered more Bayraktars. The OG source is said to be Oleksii Reznikov's (Ukraine Minister of Defense) FB post.
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Mar 2, 2022 10:16
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:Azov flag on the right Also, it's apparently from 2014 or 2015.
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Mar 2, 2022 10:16
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Zephro posted:This is interesting given Turkey's public statements about how they don't want to choose a side between Ukraine and Russia because both are allies etc I guess they'd be happy to sell them to Russia too if they could work out how to pay for them 
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Mar 2, 2022 10:19
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