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Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

ronya posted:

and in case there is any doubt:

they should get the head of wagner group to chair it



oh wait you said conference opposing fascism didn't you, nm

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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018
If it's Kursk 2.0 I will lean back from my computer in satisfaction like Antonio Banderas

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Kuznetsov isn't sailing, it's still somewhere in Murmansk possibly waiting for a drydock to be built to accomodate it after the first floating drydock it was in dropped crane on it and sank, and then it spontaneously caught fire while docked up and having further refit works. The refit completion date has been 'a year from now' since 2018.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

It's looking like the paratrooper assault on Mikoleiv was unsuccessful. I won't post the video but it's of a captured paratrooper from the assault calling his mom :sigh: he looks unscathed.

Relatedly, new propaganda just dropped

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498996597673402369?t=k-lwBKIdWAlR9Ys1qlyc6A&s=19

This I don't like because it's asking noncombatants to travel to a warzone, but since Russia brought the warzone to noncombatants...

Wibla
Feb 16, 2011

Re: RPG on ship action, this was one of the threats we prepared for when we deployed to the Gulf of Aden. Most normal military vessel hulls do little to protect against anti tank weaponry.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

This honestly was my first thought also and seems more likely than anything else.

It's way more likely than Ukraine managing to attack it. I mean, it's not impossible that Ukraine did it, but likelyhood is they just hosed up.

I mean, read about the fleet that the Russians sent to attack Japan. Farce is too kind a word.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Alchenar posted:

I'd like to touch on this really briefly because I recall 'D&D threads get bad when they start endlessly circling the same arguments' as a bit of feedback I gave recently: firstly there's no way anyone in a thread this big and fast is keeping track of what's been discussed so I think new people appearing should get a bit of generocity, secondly if you are going to say 'this topic is done unless you have something new to say' then you can't leave people to track through 500 pages to see what the discussion was, you either need to say 'read between p.356 to 375 where everything new was said' or pick a few good posts and highlight them in the OP.

NATO discussions honestly can go elsewhere, most of us want actual details on the poo poo on the ground, not rehashing idea 2500 that NATO caused the war and this is us imperialism to trap Russia who are big teddy bears trying to stop the Ukrainian Nazi propaganda that keeps coming up. Or world war three clancy chat.

I'd rather the focus here be what it is, actual up to date info on the ground and not screaming about NATO. There's ample room for that discussion in other threads or a new thread, and absolutely no reason besides wanting to continue dragging it up that it needs to be here

My two cents as someone reading the thread, and very much appreciate of not having to read doom posting about Clancy chat or endless rehashs from people that NATO is the true devil.

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Gervasius posted:



e: there is also this guy doing donuts near Belarus border



So yeah, I'd guess entire airspace around UA and BY border is infested with NATO SIGINT.
The RAF one near Belarus seems to be heading back to the UK now. You'd think they'd have tankers nearby, or at least be refuelling in Poland or Lithuania or something rather than flying all the way home.

Zephro fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Mar 2, 2022

Vaginaface
Aug 26, 2013

HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!

KitConstantine posted:

This I don't like because it's asking noncombatants to travel to a warzone, but since Russia brought the warzone to noncombatants...

The idea might be to tie up Russian military assets managing an army of babushka that Cannot Be Harmed

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Charlz Guybon posted:

The Russian navy has historically been vastly more incompetent than the army, by like an order of magnitude. They may have just blown themselves up trying to attack Odessa.

Good history vid on the Russian's attempts to get a fleet to fight japan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag

It went so badly that that war is often considered the beginning of the end for the Russian empire and one of the key events that set the stage for the 1917 revolution.

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

KitConstantine posted:

It's looking like the paratrooper assault on Mikoleiv was unsuccessful. I won't post the video but it's of a captured paratrooper from the assault calling his mom :sigh: he looks unscathed.
Paratroops are like zero-for-four so far in this war or something, jeez

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

If it's what that thread thinks it is, a missile frigate, it has significant countermeasures and missiles of its own aboard.

Other options could be internal sabotage or just a really badly maintained ship that gave up the ghost. :shrug:

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

KitConstantine posted:

It's looking like the paratrooper assault on Mikoleiv was unsuccessful. I won't post the video but it's of a captured paratrooper from the assault calling his mom :sigh: he looks unscathed.

Relatedly, new propaganda just dropped

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498996597673402369?t=k-lwBKIdWAlR9Ys1qlyc6A&s=19

This I don't like because it's asking noncombatants to travel to a warzone, but since Russia brought the warzone to noncombatants...

this seems like a really stupid idea. you want them to return home so they can tell about what they saw, using them as essentially hostage POW's isn't going to go over well

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1498998487324807168

Destroying the last ipad you'll ever own to own the libs americans.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Zephro posted:

Paratroops are like zero-for-four so far in this war or something, jeez

Think they successfully took Kherson this morning, so probably 1/5

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Shibawanko posted:

this seems like a really stupid idea. you want them to return home so they can tell about what they saw, using them as essentially hostage POW's isn't going to go over well

I don't think they seriously expect any to come. It's yet another attempt to drum up outrage in Russia. Moms seem to be sacrosanct there so why not use that?

I still don't like it because the mom thing hits really close to home for me, but I don't think it's a serious proposal.

In other news a leaked audio message from Russia to the Kyiv Independent indicates the bodies are starting to flow back to military cities in Russia in ways that incate Ukrainian enemy casualty reports might not be as far off as they seem. It's not going over well.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Really bad

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499006779354718209

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Zephro posted:

The RAF one near Belarus seems to be heading back to the UK now. You'd think they'd have tankers nearby, or at least be refuelling in Poland or Lithuania or something rather than flying all the way home.

The crew needs downtime and rest.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Good history vid on the Russian's attempts to get a fleet to fight japan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag

It went so badly that that war is often considered the beginning of the end for the Russian empire and one of the key events that set the stage for the 1917 revolution.

The failure is the Imperial Russian navy in the Russo-Japanese war, a war fought in 1904 and 1905, between Tsarist Russia and Imperial Japan does not really tell you much about the current capabilities of either the Russian or Japanese navies.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

ronya posted:

and in case there is any doubt:

A fascist organizing a conference against fascism while he invades a sovereign country (like fascists do) led by a popularly elected Jewish man. :thunk:

Owlkill
Jul 1, 2009

Zephro posted:

The RAF one near Belarus seems to be heading back to the UK now. You'd think they'd have tankers nearby, or at least be refuelling in Poland or Lithuania or something rather than flying all the way home.

There's been British/US/Dutch tankers circling over eastern Poland pretty much continuously since before the invasion, if you see one Rivet Joint heading off it normally ovetlaps with or is replaced by another in pretty short order so I assume its some sort of shift pattern for want of a better description (I'm sure someone with more on depth knowledge can correct me though).

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Zephro posted:

Paratroops are like zero-for-four so far in this war or something, jeez

I mean to be fair to them, they're dropping in (I think mostly by helicopter) lightly armed, and if not relieved by a rapid nearby ground advance or given relentless air cover they are likely to end up grossly outnumbered, outgunned and under attacked from multiple directions. Even if they're well-trained and well-equipped (though due to the nature of their mission their equipment is going to be on the ligter side) soldiers, what are they going to do?

TheRat posted:

Think they successfully took Kherson this morning, so probably 1/5

What makes you think those were paratroops who took that city?

Randarkman fucked around with this message at 14:22 on Mar 2, 2022

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Shibawanko posted:

this seems like a really stupid idea. you want them to return home so they can tell about what they saw, using them as essentially hostage POW's isn't going to go over well

I can't see russia releasing former POWs into the general population or them contacting the public in any way either, this is nasty and cruel stuff.

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

KitConstantine posted:

It's looking like the paratrooper assault on Mikoleiv was unsuccessful. I won't post the video but it's of a captured paratrooper from the assault calling his mom :sigh: he looks unscathed.

Relatedly, new propaganda just dropped

https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1498996597673402369?t=k-lwBKIdWAlR9Ys1qlyc6A&s=19

This I don't like because it's asking noncombatants to travel to a warzone, but since Russia brought the warzone to noncombatants...

maybe they are saying "if their soldiers come to Ukraine, they will extradite their sons"?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

KitConstantine posted:

Ukraine will have a chance to find out either way.

The guy maintaining the equipment loss list just updated his blog a half an hour ago.

Detailed list at the link.

Edit: Ukrainian military guys seem pretty psyched about their new stuff
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1498974245170429952?t=KuHA0iquJYz0Zy-ARe_2kg&s=19

A minor technical correction but this appears to be a BMD-4, not BMP-3. You can tell from the much smaller hull, the gun otoh is bigger than on BMD-3. It's an airdroppable VDV troop carrier. It's only been around since 2004 and there aren't too many of those around. The guys using them should be better than most.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

tl;dr Russian civilian aircraft will be completely unable to fly in 3 weeks time. They won't be able to fly anywhere internationally by next week because they can't be insured. They will run out of spare parts and the ability to repair anything within the month.


The timetable to Putin's End is accelerating.

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Good history vid on the Russian's attempts to get a fleet to fight japan

Was just going to post something on that. It feels and hopefully is... very relevant.

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...
Here's a Turkish military transport plane that looks like it's about to land in Poland near the Ukrainian border. I wonder if it's got another batch of Bayraktars on board.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

KitConstantine posted:

I don't think they seriously expect any to come. It's yet another attempt to drum up outrage in Russia. Moms seem to be sacrosanct there so why not use that?

I still don't like it because the mom thing hits really close to home for me, but I don't think it's a serious proposal.

In other news a leaked audio message from Russia to the Kyiv Independent indicates the bodies are starting to flow back to military cities in Russia in ways that incate Ukrainian enemy casualty reports might not be as far off as they seem. It's not going over well.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

presumably it's intended for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Committees_of_Soldiers%27_Mothers_of_Russia who have been very vocally opposed to russian policies of basically communicating nothing about captured and killed soldiers (and moreover using pensions and mortgage payments essentially as bribes to not ask questions)

ZombieLenin posted:

The failure is the Imperial Russian navy in the Russo-Japanese war, a war fought in 1904 and 1905, between Tsarist Russia and Imperial Japan does not really tell you much about the current capabilities of either the Russian or Japanese navies.

yeah ofc, i'm posting that purely because it's an interesting and funny bit of history

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

ZombieLenin posted:

The failure is the Imperial Russian navy in the Russo-Japanese war, a war fought in 1904 and 1905, between Tsarist Russia and Imperial Japan does not really tell you much about the current capabilities of either the Russian or Japanese navies.

The North Sea Fleet has spent the last 20 years repeatedly trying to kill its own sailors so with literally nothing to go on I think 'accidentally set fire to itself' is a pretty decent bet to lay.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Comstar posted:

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020

tl;dr Russian civilian aircraft will be completely unable to fly in 3 weeks time. They won't be able to fly anywhere internationally by next week because they can't be insured. They will run out of spare parts and the ability to repair anything within the month.


The timetable to Putin's End is accelerating.

This seems like it got a lot worse for them when Boeing and airbus cut off parts. I can’t imagine they stockpiled a whole lot.

However with china right there I wouldn’t be surprised if they could backchannel parts

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

ZombieLenin posted:

The failure is the Imperial Russian navy in the Russo-Japanese war, a war fought in 1904 and 1905, between Tsarist Russia and Imperial Japan does not really tell you much about the current capabilities of either the Russian or Japanese navies.

The most incredible example of incompetence in this war, unencrypted open communications up to battalion and brigade command level is exactly the greatest factor that led to the Germans curb stomping the Russians in 1914 despite being vastly outnumbered and having the great majority of their army fighting France in the west.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Invading Ukraine: it’s like jazz. It’s not about the cities you capture it’s about the cities you dont capture.

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Owlkill posted:

There's been British/US/Dutch tankers circling over eastern Poland pretty much continuously since before the invasion, if you see one Rivet Joint heading off it normally ovetlaps with or is replaced by another in pretty short order so I assume its some sort of shift pattern for want of a better description (I'm sure someone with more on depth knowledge can correct me though).
Yeah I looked for a replacement but couldn't see one. Maybe it's got its transponder off for whatever reason.

Randarkman posted:

I mean to be fair to them, they're dropping in (I think mostly by helicopter) lightly armed, and if not relieved by a rapid nearby ground advance or given relentless air cover they are likely to end up grossly outnumbered, outgunned and under attacked from multiple directions. Even if they're well-trained and well-equipped (though due to the nature of their mission their equipment is going to be on the ligter side) soldiers, what are they going to do?
Right, absolutely. It's just weird that the Russians seem to be thinking "this time it'll work!"

thedavid
Oct 29, 2004

Starting on 9/11 this year I've 'season passed' Keith Olbermann on my tivo.

Also, Golden Girls.

ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1498998487324807168

Destroying the last ipad you'll ever own to own the libs americans.

It's like an ipad 2 as well. Hilarious.

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
In a better world, the utter tragic failure of the Kursk also torpedoed Putin’s reign just as it started. Alas.

DOOMocrat
Oct 2, 2003

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498866224125648898?t=WCCv3Ho9bBAPSAR2s_OJ_w&s=19

I don't know if I've ever heard of a JSDF foreign fighter before.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

TheRat posted:

Still columning slowly towards encircling Kyiv. It's not a 70 mile long smoking crater yet which means they probably have means of defending themselves now.

The column wasn't actually that long. The imaging company/group whatever clarified it was the same column moving along a 70 miles route.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1

quote:

Reports that the convoy’s length grew from 17 to 40 miles are likely inaccurate. A spokesperson from Maxar Technologies has clarified to ISW that Maxar obtained new imagery showing more of the convoy, not the convoy getting longer.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

There is a lot of good war nerd info in these links from yesterday.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Bang my hammer on a lithium battery

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Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Zephro posted:

Yeah I looked for a replacement but couldn't see one. Maybe it's got its transponder off for whatever reason.

Right, absolutely. It's just weird that the Russians seem to be thinking "this time it'll work!"

It's really a universal problem that peacetime militaries keep falling into. Encrypted communications are a hassle, especially when you can straight up call someone on your cell phone when things aren't working. There needs to be a lot of discipline during exercises to break that habit.

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