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Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD
Yo dawg I heard you like talking about Ukraine so I put a Ukraine in the Ukraine

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psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Nuclear Tourist posted:

I can only hope you're right.

I mean to be clear, I think you're 100% right about them pounding civilian areas into dust. Whether Ukraine wins or loses, Russia's already indicated they're running back to their old playbooks.

Syrian Lannister
Aug 25, 2007

Oh, did I kill him too?
I've been a very busy little man.


Sugartime Jones
Airbus joining Boeing in ending maintenance support activities.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
Ooo! Look at me! NO DON'T LOOK AT ME!



These are pictures of military incompetence.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1498923375699406849?t=9_COpn7MQz96esw6zMhG2g&s=19

And for all of our justified fears of Grozny, remember that Jeltsin bitterly accepted the independence of tiny Chechnya in '96. Nothing is impossible.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ThisIsJohnWayne posted:

These are pictures of military incompetence.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1498923375699406849?t=9_COpn7MQz96esw6zMhG2g&s=19

And for all of our justified fears of Grozny, remember that Jeltsin bitterly accepted the independence of tiny Chechnya in '96. Nothing is impossible.

That's one way to block a street.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
Good update from ISW

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1


quote:

Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the capital likely aimed at encircling and ultimately capturing it. This effort will likely accelerate in the next 24-48 hours. Russian operations against Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations are active, with the operation against Mariupol making the most progress in the last 24 hours.

The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle Kyiv from the east. The long Russian column of combat and logistics vehicles north of Kyiv is likely setting conditions for the envelopment to the west, although it could also support attacks directly into the city from the positions Russian forces maintain in Kyiv’s northwestern outskirts. Russian forces are more likely to pursue the envelopment/encirclement than a direct assault into the city.

The Russian military has continued using area-attack weapons in the city of Kharkiv, dramatically increasing the damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties. Russian forces have not reportedly attempted large-scale ground operations against Kharkiv in the last 24 hours but are likely instead using air, missile, and artillery bombardment to set conditions for a renewed ground attack sometime in the next 24-48 hours. Russian ground forces appear likely to conduct another frontal assault on Kharkiv from the northeast rather than attempt to envelop or encircle the city.

Russian forces in the south appear to be holding their positions south of Zaprozhya, fighting to reduce Ukrainian positions in Kherson and seize that city, and encircling Mariupol to set conditions to seize it. Russian operations in the south do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa within the next 24 hours. A Russian drive north through or near Zaprozhya to cut off Ukrainian forces fighting along the line of contact also appears very unlikely in the next 24-72 hours.

Russian troops claim to have encircled Mariupol and have reportedly entered the city of Kherson in the south.

Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are addressed and reinforcements come into the fight.[1] It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat power the added Russian troops will bring.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.

Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.

Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.

Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

CNN Prima (Czech) report about fighting in Kharkiv. Filmed yesterday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MsYJghUdTw

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

BBC confirms Russia mostly controls Kherson in the south which is the first actual major population center that’s not in the breakaway regions.

Rude Dude With Tude
Apr 19, 2007

Your President approves this text.
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1498965599850045440

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Cugel the Clever posted:

l "NATO-pilled donors to Nazis".

Leading up to the war a ton of the coverage was literally parroting Azov propaganda events, and a bunch of foreign Ukraine related activism is tied with these groups and if people want to pretend that won’t be a problem in the future just lol.

Hopefully they’re not as useful as they were before since Putin inspired previously poorly motivated Ukrainian conscripts to want to fight with whatever he thought his coked out 10-D chess plan was but I doubt it. Neofascism is going to be a problem in both Ukraine and Russia well after this is over regardless of the outcome since both states are happy to embrace them.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018


Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

That's, uh, quite the way to engage in negotiations with a city government.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498955188811583492?cxt=HHwWiMC-ta3zrc0pAAAA

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Terrifying Effigies posted:

That's, uh, quite the way to engage in negotiations with a city government.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498955188811583492?cxt=HHwWiMC-ta3zrc0pAAAA

Seems like most Russian troops got their training from action movies

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I'm still floored by two major petroleum companies pulling out as well as loving Boeing telling Russia to get hosed.

Yeah, really noble of all these companies to pull out of a country that suddenly has no real money.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

CBJSprague24 posted:

The endless Nazis in Ukraine talk Russia continues to spew feels a lot like what the right has done in the US: "most of the world is too smart to know it's bullshit, but dammit, we're going to keep hammering it home to whoever's willing to listen!".

Man you think it's bad in english, you should see how bad it is on VK and other russian language sites. All ukranians are either freikorps, vulkssturm, or just undefined nazis and russian forces are courageous anti-fascists according to the more dedicated russian nationalists.

Tyler Whitney
Jan 21, 2020

Why don't you make it sing?


Spoggerific posted:

Wikipedia quotes the allies as taking 10,000 casualties (of which 4,414 died) and losing 185 M4 Sherman tanks on D-day. I also have no military knowledge beyond videogames, but the fact that Russian losses (granted, those reported by the other side, which are definitely inflated) appear to be approaching D-day levels after less than a week is... unthinkable.

Pages back but many of the D-Day tank losses were the result of DD tanks being swamped by seas coming ashore onto Omaha beach, not necessarily combat kills.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Stultus Maximus posted:

Yeah, really noble of all these companies to pull out of a country that suddenly has no real money.

Who said anything about nobility? I'm talking about what the impacts to Russia will be.

A Festivus Miracle
Dec 19, 2012

I have come to discourse on the profound inequities of the American political system.

The attempt to supply Ukraine with fighters it has parts for has been a dud . Most of the countries still using Soviet era and Russian warplanes are unwilling to relinquish their own tiny airforces and parts to the Ukrainians. I'd say send them some EuroFighters but I doubt that would ever happen in any world.

nwin
Feb 25, 2002

make's u think

Are we sure the Russian nukes aren’t just made of paper mache at this point?

Hekk
Oct 12, 2012

'smeper fi

nwin posted:

Are we sure the Russian nukes aren’t just made of paper mache at this point?

Are you proposing we roll the dice and find out?

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
So the twitter sphere is rumoring that Putin plans to reinstall Viktor Yukanovich, who was last seen in Ukraine fleeing charges of treason and mass murder.

If this is true, then this is a clear message that even if Ukraine capitulates immediately, the killings will continue in the form of political Terror.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://youtu.be/wCjBki16zl0

Timothy Snyder / Yuval Harari livestream, if you're interested in that kind of thing.

Spoggerific
May 28, 2009

A Festivus Miracle posted:

I'd say send them some EuroFighters but I doubt that would ever happen in any world.

I know this isn't a serious suggestion, but I imagine even the best pilot is next to worthless in a combat situation in a plane they've never trained in. I know I eat poo poo every time I try a new plane in IL-2 and DCS, even after looking up how to fly it.

Prop Wash
Jun 12, 2010



A.o.D. posted:

So the twitter sphere is rumoring that Putin plans to reinstall Viktor Yukanovich, who was last seen in Ukraine fleeing charges of treason and mass murder.

If this is true, then this is a clear message that even if Ukraine capitulates immediately, the killings will continue in the form of political Terror.

ah yes, bastion of leftist thought and self-determination, Viktor Yanukovych, definitely not known for being a notably corrupt oligarchist stooge with a persistent history of election fraud who told a female presidential candidate to get back in the kitchen before refusing to debate her, deeply disliked in the urban areas of ukraine, definitely a natural ally for the american left

wonder why he was overthrown? i guess it was the cia

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Hekk posted:

Are you proposing we roll the dice and find out?

I, uh, don't think that's up to us anymore.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

A.o.D. posted:

So the twitter sphere is rumoring that Putin plans to reinstall Viktor Yukanovich, who was last seen in Ukraine fleeing charges of treason and mass murder.

If this is true, then this is a clear message that even if Ukraine capitulates immediately, the killings will continue in the form of political Terror.

That dude's gonna get assassinated the first day on the job.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.
According to Russia, he’s the rightful leader ousted by the NATO backed nazi coup in 2014.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Prop Wash posted:

ah yes, bastion of leftist thought and self-determination, Viktor Yanukovych, definitely not known for being a notably corrupt oligarchist stooge with a persistent history of election fraud who told a female presidential candidate to get back in the kitchen before refusing to debate her, deeply disliked in the urban areas of ukraine, definitely a natural ally for the american left

wonder why he was overthrown? i guess it was the cia

Yanukovych deserves all the scorn you're heaping on him, but I don't understand where the "american left" angle comes from? :confused:

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I, uh, don't think that's up to us anymore.

Agreed.

Putin is going to launch nukes if he wants to. We know he doesn't care how things get done as long as he gets his way.

We don't have a choice anymore on the nuke question. Putin is achieving what Best Korea wants to achieve. We let nations dangle their nukes like a get out of jail free card.

Hekk
Oct 12, 2012

'smeper fi

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I, uh, don't think that's up to us anymore.

There are lines NATO haven’t crossed yet. If for example, NATO piloted aircraft started flying sorties within Ukraine, it’d certainly be an escalation that I have no idea how Russia would respond to. They are running out of non nuclear responses though.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006
All we have to do to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle is give Putin his every demand without complaint

It's so easy.

Hekk
Oct 12, 2012

'smeper fi

A.o.D. posted:

All we have to do to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle is give Putin his every demand without complaint

It's so easy.

Yeah that’s exactly the argument that was being made. Stupendous analytical skills on display here.

A.o.D.
Jan 15, 2006

Hekk posted:

Yeah that’s exactly the argument that was being made. Stupendous analytical skills on display here.

Putin won't stop at Ukraine if he's not stopped. This needs to be understood. If his nuclear threat is successful in getting him what he wants he will advance his brinksmanship.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Hekk posted:

There are lines NATO haven’t crossed yet. If for example, NATO piloted aircraft started flying sorties within Ukraine, it’d certainly be an escalation that I have no idea how Russia would respond to. They are running out of non nuclear responses though.

I mean, yes, but I was more making the point that now we are down to the self-control of a madman.

Prop Wash
Jun 12, 2010



Torrannor posted:

Yanukovych deserves all the scorn you're heaping on him, but I don't understand where the "american left" angle comes from? :confused:

No, you’re correct, that’s not the right group to single out here. It just gives me a headache to think there’s anyone out there who considers themselves left wing and would support an invasion to return him to power, no matter how many times we use the word “denazification”

Hekk
Oct 12, 2012

'smeper fi

A.o.D. posted:

Putin won't stop at Ukraine if he's not stopped. This needs to be understood. If his nuclear threat is successful in getting him what he wants he will advance his brinksmanship.

Maybe.

I am holding out hope that there are senior officials within Russia that are helping keep Putin away from that button. Maybe the sanctions and extreme loss of life from their attack will generate enough unrest with Russia for someone to step in solve the problem for us.

I don’t think the response should be calling bullshit and waiting to see if cans of sunshine get opened up.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
“Putin is insane” and other rhetorical arguments to say that the US or NATO should launch attacks in Russia don’t make any good sense. NATO is doing a lot to support a non-NATO nation under attack. NATO launching an aggressive attack on Russia would be an absurd escalation and would shatter NATO unity. NATO actions like that require unanimity. So it would just never happen, so really advocacy to attack Russia is advocacy for select states to deliberately break ranks with NATO policy and go it alone, hope it works and sacrifice their Article 5 protections.

You don’t get to attack a nation, then call for article 5 if they fight back, for example.

The admins of NATO, US, UK, et al are letting the economic and diplomatic ramifications run course; not everything is a nail requiring offensive hammers.

Crini
Sep 2, 2011
What can the US / NATO do, beyond sanctions & material, to help Ukraine covertly?

Obviously, running B-2s with JDAMs or cruise missile strikes would help, but that would no doubt lead to ICBMs in the air shortly thereafter.

Similarly you can’t run a battalion of infantry or armor from Poland straight to the Kyiv, for the same reason.

So what kind of deniable help do you think we’re giving them? Several former military or government employees who happened to be ‘vacationing’ in Ukraine and now have volunteered to fight? Or do you think we are just feeding intel?

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Based upon what we're seeing, I don't think Russia could seriously contest even a smaller NATO county like Estonia. Seems like this fairly local war has already stretched Russia's ground forces thin, and they're being incredibly risk averse with committing their aircraft after early losses.

The sanctions will take some time to bite, but they're going to hit the defense sector hard (especially stuff like steel and electronics).

I can see the corruption in the Russian military accelerating to post-USSR collapse levels, as the people in charge try to get their hands on currency worth something, with lots of weapons and supplies going missing and suddenly turning up in the hands of warlords and terrorist organizations around the world. So that's not great.

But I think this was supposed to be as much a performance for NATO as it was a subjugation of Ukraine. And so far it's been a disaster.

psydude fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Mar 2, 2022

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Spoggerific
May 28, 2009

Crini posted:

Or do you think we are just feeding intel?

I think it's a bit more than "just" intel. The intel NATO is feeding them through satellites and constant AWACS/sigint flights on the border is probably worth just as much, if not more, than the ATGMs they're being showered with. I don't know how often a spy satellite passes overhead, but I imagine there can't be any more than a couple hours of a gap. Immediately knowing where everything visible from the air is once every couple hours has to be one of the most powerful assets on Ukraine's side.

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