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ThomasPaine posted:Lol can you seriously make something 'not a war' by calling it something else? Hi, yes, I'm sending troops into your borders uninvited and shelling your cities and shooting your citizens, but we're definitely not at war, dumbass.  " argument also gets trotted out depressingly often (see: NI, I/P, American policing operating normally)
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Mar 2, 2022 13:08
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ThomasPaine posted:Lol can you seriously make something 'not a war' by calling it something else? Hi, yes, I'm sending troops into your borders uninvited and shelling your cities and shooting your citizens, but we're definitely not at war, dumbass. If you have enough ICBMs and a permanent security council seat you can say anything is anything you want.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:13
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Speaking of NI my partner pointed out the other day that all these newscasters saying the quiet part out loud about unprecedented conflict in Europe must have been received with some bemusement in Belfast and Derry, not to mention the former Yugoslavia.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:15
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keep punching joe posted:If you have enough ICBMs and a permanent security council seat you can say anything is anything you want.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:16
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ThomasPaine posted:Speaking of NI my partner pointed out the other day that all these newscasters saying the quiet part out loud about unprecedented conflict in Europe must have been received with some bemusement in Belfast and Derry, not to mention the former Yugoslavia. You just need to understand that for a lot of people, World War 2 extended roughly up until the Afghanistan war.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:17
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Makes sense, all those boomers who swore that they were on the beaches at Normandy really just got drunk and tried to start a sectarian fight at the Sea Life in Bray while on holiday.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:23
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I know nothing about Russian internal politics, but is there a possibility that harsh economic sanctions could spark internal conflict. Like the Balkans war(s), except this time bigger and with the power of the atom harnessed.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:24
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spilling warm beer and ice cream down my england shirt while screaming terrorist bastard at an octopus
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Mar 2, 2022 13:25
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Are you genuinely trying to claim sending actual NATO forces in to Ukraine to fight Russian forces - because that's what a no-fly zone *is* - somehow isn't a colossal escalation of the situation? No, I am trying to claim it is a colossal escalation of the situation and I believe that with each passing day as situation in Ukraine turns from an apparently heroic and effective resistance into Alepo 2.0 it's more and more likely to actually happen. Again I am not saying that is what should happen. I am saying that I don't think "no-fly-zone" talk is going to stay just rhetoric for very long. e: Guavanaut posted:Another Brexit promise gone back on. Made me lol
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Mar 2, 2022 13:26
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Guavanaut posted:Makes sense, all those boomers who swore that they were on the beaches at Normandy really just got drunk and tried to start a sectarian fight at the Sea Life in Bray while on holiday. All too real
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Mar 2, 2022 13:28
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josh04 posted:You just need to understand that for a lot of people, World War 2 extended roughly up until the Afghanistan war. You can make the argument (and many have) that in fact the Franco-Prussian War never actually ended, it just snowballed. The effects of the aftermath were one of the main causes of WW1, the effects of the aftermath of that led to WW2, which led to the Cold War, etc. What I'm saying is if all of the nations of the world decided to get rid of their nuclear weapons by detonating them in the Saar so nobody could have it, we might actually get world peace at last.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:30
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jiggerypokery posted:No, I am trying to claim it is a colossal escalation of the situation and I believe that with each passing day as situation in Ukraine turns from an apparently heroic and effective resistance into Alepo 2.0 it's more and more likely to actually happen. Again I am not saying that is what should happen. I am saying that I don't think "no-fly-zone" talk is going to stay just rhetoric for very long. Okay, I misunderstood your point, my mistake.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:31
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ThomasPaine posted:Speaking of NI my partner pointed out the other day that all these newscasters saying the quiet part out loud about unprecedented conflict in Europe must have been received with some bemusement in Belfast and Derry, not to mention the former Yugoslavia. The Insignificant Facts are easily ignored when a narrative is in play. ''No fly zone'', yeah... that's not for happening. Proxy war is where we are at, as previously in Korea & Vietnam.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:35
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This film is dedicated to the brave fighters of the Azov Battalion.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:37
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keep punching joe posted:I know nothing about Russian internal politics, but is there a possibility that harsh economic sanctions could spark internal conflict. Like the Balkans war(s), except this time bigger and with the power of the atom harnessed. Naah. Sanctions never work - they impoverish ordinary people in the countries that they're targeted at but do little or nothing to destabilize regimes or encourage internal rebellion. Places like North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for decades to no discernable effect; conversely, I can't think of a single situation where sanctions actually achieved their aim of changing a country's behaviour. Basically, if you're too stubborn to negotiate but don't fancy actually starting a war, sanctions are the perfect middle option, the 'being seen to be doing something' of international relations. (Naturally, our declining neoliberal western regimes loving love them.)
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Mar 2, 2022 13:38
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keep punching joe posted:This film is dedicated to the brave fighters of the Azov Battalion. gently caress Azov with a broken bottle, better they die on the line than a Ukranian is the best i will wish for them.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:39
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goddamnedtwisto posted:You can make the argument (and many have) that in fact the Franco-Prussian War never actually ended, it just snowballed. The effects of the aftermath were one of the main causes of WW1, the effects of the aftermath of that led to WW2, which led to the Cold War, etc. For all the "I would go back in time and kill Hitler" fanfics, which would probably solve nothing as you just get some other Nazi oval office, it'd be far more interesting to go back and get Frederick III to quit smoking.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:40
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Guavanaut posted:For all the "I would go back in time and kill Hitler" fanfics, which would probably solve nothing as you just get some other Nazi oval office, it'd be far more interesting to go back and get Frederick III to quit smoking. Bill and/or Ted voice: "Here Fred dude, try this vape!"
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Mar 2, 2022 13:43
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Two years later Europe is bankrupt after he convinces Babbage and Darwin to team up and make a big clock that draws monkey pictures for some reason.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:45
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Just Another Lurker posted:gently caress Azov with a broken bottle, better they die on the line than a Ukranian is the best i will wish for them. I think this may have been a reference to a certain sly stallone film, not an earnest endorsement
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Mar 2, 2022 13:46
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Pistol_Pete posted:Naah. Sanctions never work - they impoverish ordinary people in the countries that they're targeted at but do little or nothing to destabilize regimes or encourage internal rebellion. Places like North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for decades to no discernable effect; conversely, I can't think of a single situation where sanctions actually achieved their aim of changing a country's behaviour. I'd argue Russia is different from (most) other places where sanctions have been tried because the money-men that keep Putin in power are much more vulnerable to them - there's a considerably shorter and more direct route to apply pressure on him than there was on Hussein etc. However, to reinforce your point, at the moment the sanctions that have been applied have not been on these men or their wealth, but on institutions where the pain is felt more at the lower end of the scale. Part of this is because of course Lebedev, Abramovich, et. al. are good chums of the ruling class so we can't hurt them too much, can we, but I'd not be surprised at all if another factor is that there's a lot of people who *really* don't want that can of worms opened and it being demonstrated just how easily you can appropriate the funds of the hyper-rich (and just how little it would hurt the non-hyper-rich if you did so).
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Mar 2, 2022 13:47
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I'm probably wrong but instinctively I feel like the west, and the UK in particular, could probably hobble the Russian state overnight if they seized every one of every oligarch's assets, Putin included. As far as I can tell, Russian money very rarely stays in Russia. Also, assuming a cool socialist government, how much power would the UK have to stamp down on tax havens/dodgy banking in the overseas territories/Crown dependencies? I know they're nominally autonomous, but nonetheless...
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Mar 2, 2022 13:52
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goddamnedtwisto posted:I'd argue Russia is different from (most) other places where sanctions have been tried because the money-men that keep Putin in power are much more vulnerable to them - there's a considerably shorter and more direct route to apply pressure on him than there was on Hussein etc. However, to reinforce your point, at the moment the sanctions that have been applied have not been on these men or their wealth, but on institutions where the pain is felt more at the lower end of the scale. Part of this is because of course Lebedev, Abramovich, et. al. are good chums of the ruling class so we can't hurt them too much, can we, but I'd not be surprised at all if another factor is that there's a lot of people who *really* don't want that can of worms opened and it being demonstrated just how easily you can appropriate the funds of the hyper-rich (and just how little it would hurt the non-hyper-rich if you did so). I would also say that sanctions have tended to be against smaller countries (at least in economic terms) that just end up getting propped to a certain extent up by whichever superpower feels like it, e.g. China would never let NK collapse because then it would have to deal with the consequences of that. I don't think we've ever seen an economy the size of Russia be sanctioned to anywhere near this extent before.
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Mar 2, 2022 13:55
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Pistol_Pete posted:Naah. Sanctions never work - they impoverish ordinary people in the countries that they're targeted at but do little or nothing to destabilize regimes or encourage internal rebellion. Places like North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for decades to no discernable effect; conversely, I can't think of a single situation where sanctions actually achieved their aim of changing a country's behaviour. In general I agree but.. Russia is a big landmass, comprised of many semi autonomous substates. I guess what I was wondering was that by turning of the money, do these regions start thinking seditious thoughts. Like maybe that's just fantasy talk but how invested in the Russian national identity are they? (probably a lot because I imagine the Soviet Union kept a firm hand on that sort of thinking). keep punching joe fucked around with this message at 14:03 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 14:01
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:What do those stand for again? I've forgotten. Nws : Not work safe Nms: Not mind safe
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Mar 2, 2022 14:06
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Sanctions aren't totally useless. But they have a "success" rate of only about 40%. And even then most of that data is from countries far less rich and powerful than Russia.
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Mar 2, 2022 14:09
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Mega Comrade posted:Sanctions aren't totally useless. But they have a "success" rate of only about 40%. And even then most of that data is from countries far less rich and powerful than Russia. I think they might succeed in contributing to civil unrest and even toppling Putin in this case but I am not sure when that has ever been true before.
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Mar 2, 2022 14:14
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I mean, if you look at the language of the actual people imposing the sanctions, it's all about "being tough" and "sending a clear message" etc, which comes back to my point that sanctions are mostly gesture politics used when you don't want to either talk to or fight with an opponent.
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Mar 2, 2022 14:29
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Their existence or at least the threat of their existence has wiped billions off the value of Russian assets. Look at Sberbank. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBR...j_dINa3r_L1qZyS It's so many countries at once too. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/25/list-of-sanctions-on-russia-after-invasion (pray for taiwan  )
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Mar 2, 2022 14:38
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from a remark I made in the War thread:ronya posted:
by this time sanctions had been a regular feature of international policy as part of the League of Nations, but were regarded with some skepticism due to the inability of sanctions to restrain Italy's invasion of Ethiopia; this perhaps led to a certain amount of carelessness regarding their use subsequently Henry Farrell has an excellent essay here: https://www.lawfareblog.com/modern-history-economic-sanctions: quote:Despite these failures, states took a different lesson from sanctions and blockade than Carr’s account would suggest. Rather than despising their inefficacy, they feared them. Italy, Germany and Japan worried about their vulnerabilities to sanctions, and took extensive measures to mitigate them. Italy strove for autarky—effective independence from global economic pressure—but failed, falling ever deeper into Germany’s shadow. Japan, entangled in its own war with China, embarked on what one authority cited by Mulder has described as a “perverted search for self-sufficiency.” Germany placed the principles of “raw materials freedom” and “blockade resilience” at the heart of its four-year economic plan. The Nazi leadership saw the threat of foreign sanctions as further justifying its hegemonic ambitions—the more territory it influenced or controlled, the less vulnerable it would be to the Jews and Bolsheviks whom it believed were orchestrating the international campaign against Germany. I do agree actually however that at the present moment,
ronya fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 14:41
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Much like Goering and Hitler, Jeremy Corbyn wanted us to be food and mineral self sufficient, which is why Russia has invaded Ukraine
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Mar 2, 2022 14:51
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ronya you get a lot of poo poo in here on occasion but its nice to see someone with a cooler head posting about the situation in here and the D&D thread.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:33
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I haven't looked at the war thread, is it as ridiculous as I imagine it is?
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Mar 2, 2022 15:40
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ThomasPaine posted:I haven't looked at the war thread, is it as ridiculous as I imagine it is? Yes
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Mar 2, 2022 15:41
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I suspect you would not like it.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:41
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I can't keep up with it, and gave up trying. I think your bullet points are basically spot on, ronya.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:44
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The D&D one or the C-Spam one? The latter is pretty funny if you read all the posts with a Russian accent.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:44
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Pistol_Pete posted:Naah. Sanctions never work - they impoverish ordinary people in the countries that they're targeted at but do little or nothing to destabilize regimes or encourage internal rebellion. Places like North Korea and Iran have been sanctioned for decades to no discernable effect; conversely, I can't think of a single situation where sanctions actually achieved their aim of changing a country's behaviour. The threat of US financial sanctions on the UK in response to Suez seem to have worked pretty well. That’s the nature of threats; if they have to be acted on, they failed. Outside that, sanctions have, for example, been entirely effective in preventing North Korea from achieving their goal of dropping the first part of their countries name. They have done so not by changing their behavior, but by changing their capability. Toppling Putin is unlikely, though it could happen. But avoiding sanctions, continuing business as usual, would clearly be to participate in funding his next military adventure. A world in which Russia would lose a war with Finland and/or Poland is one in which that war is a lot less likely to happen.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:51
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ThomasPaine posted:I haven't looked at the war thread, is it as ridiculous as I imagine it is? The dnd thread is awful, you honestly get more level headed and informative posting in the Cspam equivalent.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:26
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I often forget that the UKMT is inexplicably very left-wing and quite level headed compared to most other threads in D&D.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:35
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