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DOOMocrat posted:There's a lot of "Russia can't arrest everyone" and "Russia can't return to a totalitarian managed economy" spurring the short war conclusion and I'm not convinced of any of that. Many things are feasible that have incredibly high costs. I'm sure that Russia could transition to some kind of more autarkic managed economy, but the process would be very bad for pretty much everyone involved except maybe certain oligarchs and China. But that's basically sanctions working as intended.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:20
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DOOMocrat posted:There's a lot of "Russia can't arrest everyone" and "Russia can't return to a totalitarian managed economy" spurring the short war conclusion and I'm not convinced of any of that. It's technically possible, but doing it over two weeks with no warning isn't going to happen smoothly. It's only going to be a few more days until warehouses run out of general consumer goods and distributors can't buy more with their worthless rubles.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:20
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Batka was almost ousted during the last Belarusian uprising. If Russia hadn't been there to support him, the revolution might have been successful. So what's different in Russia? How does Putin's grip on the country differ from Batka's?
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Mar 2, 2022 15:21
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It comes down to do the army and the cops remain loyal, frankly. If Putin goes it will be a coup not an uprising
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Mar 2, 2022 15:23
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A volunteer for the Ukraine defense force was recording a voice message when the city council building in Kharkiv was hit by some kind of shell He got it all on video. He also survived and no one else was near him that i can see, so no nms. Let me know if I should change that https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499018436269248513?t=6ZMqKtrYGBlkuUNCu5ju-Q&s=19
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Mar 2, 2022 15:23
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https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1499008228700700689?s=20&t=fHvf5h2x2TDjRwKGK-cP1Q If this does really happen, what are the chances of Russia going full hermit kingdom?
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Mar 2, 2022 15:24
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GABA ghoul posted:Batka was almost ousted during the last Belarusian uprising. If Russia hadn't been there to support him, the revolution might have been successful. So what's different in Russia? How does Putin's grip on the country differ from Batka's? More cops Higher standard of living, slightly lighter censorship and minor outlets for activism are tolerated
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Mar 2, 2022 15:24
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Groke posted:It's like... there's no point in trying to go for a really big naval fuckup; Tsarist Russia took the all-time trophy. The Kamchatka can never be beaten, though it was very afraid of torpedo boats (British fishing vessels). 
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Mar 2, 2022 15:26
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Comstar posted:I just saw a post on reddit (which I now cannot find) of a dozen or so Donask soldiers who surrendered. They all were in schools/technical schools. All had the same story- show up for conscription, here's your uniform, off you go. 3 days later they are on the front line. Air Land Battle definitely would have worked, particularly after 1982-1984 or so. The First Gulf War proved that out. The post just above about 18 survivors in a 150-man unit is just  . I guess I shouldn't be surprised given the tactical results in some training exercises, but generally you take the highest casualties in the first 30 seconds of contact. If you survive those first 30 seconds, you have a decent chance at surviving that contact. 88% casualties is astounding. Just an utter waste of life.#fuckputin
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Mar 2, 2022 15:26
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kemikalkadet posted:Russian ships seem to spend most of their existence on fire in some way, it's like their rest state. Some trivia on the Kuznetsov - though it is known to have caught fire at least once while docked for repairs (2019), most of the other multitude of photos of it spitting a thick black plume of smoke can be attributed to its power plant, which burns low-grade fuel oil called mazut. Though given the processes required to actually burn that oil, it's also quite possible that it was on fire while underway in a few of those photos as well. (I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination)
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Mar 2, 2022 15:27
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Many things are feasible that have incredibly high costs. I'm sure that Russia could transition to some kind of more autarkic managed economy, but the process would be very bad for pretty much everyone involved except maybe certain oligarchs and China. But that's basically sanctions working as intended. I mean, that's always a choice Russia could make. Return to a command economy. Of course, that's the actual anthesis to Putinomics and kleptocapitalist plutocracy; also, ask the DPRK about how well command economies work when your country is completely isolated as a pariah state.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:27
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Just Another Lurker posted:The Kamchatka can never be beaten, though it was very afraid of torpedo boats (British fishing vessels). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag&t=18s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXpj6nK5ylo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCrAQFBUFlU For everyone looking for a reference, these are good NTRabbit fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:28
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fatherboxx posted:More cops It’s just the first one now
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Mar 2, 2022 15:28
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Video out of Mariupol today. Sounds of shelling but no visuals. The end shows the inside of a grocery store - it's interesting to see what's still on the shelves but it's clear things are running out. Translations would be nice, if anyone is able, but things are pretty clear from context. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1499014041875976193?t=2kxFX_KUqS08jC8MjQHOGw&s=19
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Mar 2, 2022 15:29
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lifetime supply of Pocky posted:The posts about “EU surprised even itself when it showed a little spine” got me pondering about what further actions can/will be taken to economically punish Russia. Like, what’s left? Have they turned the gas receipt off yet? When they do, what else can or will the western world do? We’re still importing their natural gas, and oil. If we would want to simply kill their economy, we stop doing that. And Americans stop importing their oil. Problem is, if we withdraw from their oil cold turkey, that may also crash the global economy. ronya posted:it does feel like the cost of some of that equipment has just gone through the roof of late - not just some infantry vehicles but very modern MBTs and complex mobile weapon systems They couldn’t manufacture modern MBTs during peacetime even, since sanctions existing for years have prevented Russian from manufacturing optics for Armata series. Red posted:You can imply or impose sanctions on the few trading partners Russia has left, I suppose. Belarus has been under sanctions since forever, including some fairly harsh sanctions on their exports in the aftermath of shambolic 2020 “election”. Furthermore, they have been further sanctioned earlier this week, for involvement in the Russian invasion - by U.K. and EU at the very least.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:29
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Hmm: https://twitter.com/drsarahwhitmore/status/1499013645635833858 
ronya fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:29
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ZombieLenin posted:I mean sure, but there is orders of magnitude of a difference between the economic costs of a low-grade conflict on a static line of contact than the full-scale invasion and occupation of a country with a strong armed forces and a hostile population the size of Ukraine. Oh, absolutely. I was just pointing out something that needs to be pounded into some people's heads.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:29
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This was literally what was on the invasion map that Belarus' president leaked accidentally.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:31
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https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1499018248037310464?s=20&t=n6SKQ2eG-ORGPNp5MikgEg
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Mar 2, 2022 15:34
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Charlz Guybon posted:They've had conscription since the invasion of Crimea, I read they had 400k veterans in their 20s that they just had to arm and organize and send out. 400k per year. That's the size of the class of men who age into conscription per year, minus those unfit for service. The military training before Crimea wasn't very good, the standard was roughly "what you see among Russians right now". However, after the dust settled in 2014, Ukraine suddenly got very serious and motivated about their military. They got a lot of foreign advisors, and insituted a very tight curriculum for the conscripts, including rotating everyone through a combat deployment in Donbass to get them accustomed to being shelled. The total size of this well trained reserve is ~3 million men.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:36
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1499018248037310464?s=20&t=n6SKQ2eG-ORGPNp5MikgEg Yeah, uh 
Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:36
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I don't get what they're suggesting. Purple says Hungarian territory, green says Romanian. How would that work?
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Mar 2, 2022 15:37
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William Bear posted:I don't get what they're suggesting. Purple says Hungarian territory, green says Romanian. How would that work? The presumption is that Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all as willing to reclaim their former territory as Russia is, so they will seize and annex it while Ukraine is collapsing. Edit: That map also clearly annexes transnistria as part of the red section.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:38
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Morrow posted:The presumption is that Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all as willing to reclaim their former territory as Russia is, so they will seize and annex it while Ukraine is collapsing. As people have been pointing out, Putin isn't "crazy," he just assumes the rest of the world acts the same as they do are motivated by the same things. So he truly believes the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate because to him, the protests could HAD to be organized by the West and the elections HAD to be fraudulent. Why? Because that's how things work in Russia.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:40
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CommieGIR posted:This was literally what was on the invasion map that Belarus' president leaked accidentally. I would guess it's being passed around the media with orders to go to press. I do like the casual intrusion into Moldova's borders to recover Transnistria.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:40
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Pook Good Mook posted:As people have been pointing out, Putin isn't "crazy," he just assumes the rest of the world acts the same as they do are motivated by the same things. So he truly believes the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate because to him, the protests could HAD to be organized by the West and the elections HAD to be fraudulent. Why? Because that's how things work in Russia. There's going to be one hell of a crisis if Orban reaches for his slice of the pie.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:43
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BoldFace posted:How tight moderation do the bigger Russian social media platforms like VKontakte have? Are people allowed to post the same clips that are being circulated on Telegram channels and Twitter, or will the accounts get banned? You’ll get police knocking on your door 1 day after you make a war post. Not kidding. WaltherFeng posted:Does anyone have any info how reliant Russia is on imports to replace or fix their destroyed / damaged military hardware like MBTs and such? They’re running a lot of older hardware because the previous sanctions were already a problem for modernisation. WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:A naval loving invasion. They tried a few smaller ones and those got repealed. There were rumours of them trying a larger one that lead to unit-level mutiny, but it’s wholly unconfirmed. Afaik, weather right now is too poo poo for massive amphibious landing campaigns. Dante posted:Does the russian military use the latin alphabet normally, sort of like the NATO phonetic alphabet? It's weird to me to see that Z there. Not really, this choice was likely dictated by some legibility considerations.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:44
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Partitioning out conquered countries like it's the 1930s again. Cool times. Cool, cool
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Mar 2, 2022 15:45
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Alchenar posted:There's going to be one hell of a crisis if Orban reaches for his slice of the pie. Invading ZKP is a bad idea for many, many reasons.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:45
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William Bear posted:I don't get what they're suggesting. Purple says Hungarian territory, green says Romanian. How would that work? They're fantasizing about partition like it's Poland or the Vienna Diktat or something. It's entirely masturbatory at this point, since you need to you know, take over the country to execute any of it.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:46
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 for a dead body in the loving header but a russian senator is calling out the Russian Military for not even trying to bring back the bodies of dead soldiers.https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/ly...i-50221640.html Quote from the article: quote:"The question of at least collecting the bodies of the dead is simply not worth it. I called the headquarters of the Western Military District, the press secretary of the Deputy Minister of Defense, and said, why not agree on a corridor that can at least remove the bodies? After all, they lie on unloved land, wild stray dogs eat bodies, some cannot be identified because they are burnt, "Narusova said on the Russian TV channel Dozhd. I've also heard from more than one POW and Russian radio chatter say that officers are shooting the wounded rather than trying to transport them.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:47
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:depending on how you want to count Donbass, that's an eight year war and counting. While the UK Foreign Secretary is an absolute idiot, I don't think that the statement was "war of this nature at this tempo for 10 years." However, since Truss is a moron, I'm not totally discounting the possibility. Yeah, I interpreted the statement that it would be a ten year war to be meant in the same sense that the war in Afghanistan was a twenty year war, even if the invasion only lasted two months. I don't think she meant it including Crimea and Donbass, more that after conventional victory the insurgency could last a decade until either crushed or victorious.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:47
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KitConstantine posted:Hmm I feel like they intended to say "there are mass graves from the Nazi regime in Ukraine, let us show you them!" but this for sure reads like "hold my vodka and watch me make some mass graves, you ain't seen nothing yet." Yikes.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:48
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NTRabbit posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag&t=18s Been listening & watching his vids for years, he very rarely goes further than just after WW2 as such records and schematics on ships can be inaccurate/non existent due to security concerns.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:48
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KitConstantine posted:
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Mar 2, 2022 15:48
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KitConstantine posted:Hmm "We're going to invade Ukraine because they're Nazi's." "Why would Nazi's elect a Jewish president?" "Insidious evil reasons, I guess. Look calm down we're just going to surgically target military and government, we're the good guys here." "Uhh, we have some videos where you're just indiscriminately carpet bombing cities, hitting schools, hospitals, residences and memorials for holocaust mass graves." "SHUT THE gently caress UP I'LL GENOCIDE YOUR WHOLE GODDAMN COUNTRY AND MAKE MORE MASS GRAVES YOU INFERIOR UNDESIRABLES, HAIL PUTIN." KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I feel like they intended to say "there are mass graves from the Nazi regime in Ukraine, let us show you them!" but this for sure reads like "hold my vodka and watch me make some mass graves, you ain't seen nothing yet." Yikes. Ah yeah, I just saw it as a threat, that makes sense too. Xachariah fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:50
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The "10 years" is just a euphemism because it's too uncomfortable to publicly say, "He's going to annex Ukraine and we can't do anything about it." And inimical to Ukrainian morale. So "10 years".
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Mar 2, 2022 15:50
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KitConstantine posted:
Russia fully embracing their Warhammer 40k destiny TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:50
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If the Russians are using open and unsecured radio channels, would it be possible to transmit misinformation through them?
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