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the popes toes posted:The "10 years" is just a euphemism because it's too uncomfortable to publicly say, "He's going to annex Ukraine and we can't do anything about it." And inimical to Ukrainian morale. So "10 years". And the 10-20 year duration prediction range basically matches up with Putin's natural life expectency.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:53
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William Bear posted:I don't get what they're suggesting. Purple says Hungarian territory, green says Romanian. How would that work? Oh that's interesting, i wonder if Orban was going to be/is promised that if he left the EU? 
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Mar 2, 2022 15:53
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KitConstantine posted:A volunteer for the Ukraine defense force was recording a voice message when the city council building in Kharkiv was hit by some kind of shell It's theorized that this was a single shell from a smersh MRLS They can launch like a dozen of these
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Mar 2, 2022 15:53
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Morrow posted:The presumption is that Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all as willing to reclaim their former territory as Russia is, so they will seize and annex it while Ukraine is collapsing. Yes, correct. In Putin's mind this is still 1913 and everyone in Europe is out to alter their borders at the expense of their neighbors. Next there will be a map with Austria reoccupying Hungarian territory, and Germany re-annexing Eastern Prussia (except Kaliningrad of course!) I mean clearly, Putin's next plan to dismantle NATO and European unity is to get everyone involved in a free-for-all game of "Let's Paint the Map Like 1914!"
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Mar 2, 2022 15:54
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William Bear posted:I don't get what they're suggesting. Purple says Hungarian territory, green says Romanian. How would that work? It doesn't. That's not the point. This war is hosed and pointless -even more so then most- and this is just a propaganda piece to elevate fears of people who may be noticing it fuked and pointless. It's just trying to make it seem like there could possibly be a good point or some, any sort of reason or end point behind it. The fact they needed three different scenarios instead of just one in there loving state propaganda, sort of telling of how little people know and are making sense of any of this.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:54
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This is very bad. Every remaining nominally government-independent major news company in Russia was shut down yesterday, and now their staff are fleeing the country. The poster is the editor of Meduza, an indie news operation in Latvia reporting on Russia https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1499029758939746304?t=JK0AF9RU8meroi2-mQGxGg&s=19 More: https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1498941253009948672?t=etuT_prz-neUaxdyxSLlfg&s=19 https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1498955846138703873?t=k6ceiWR0t6FqqyX6n329VQ&s=19 The last time Echo went off the air was in 1991 during the Soviet coup Edit: forgot a word; fixed location of Meduza operation KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 15:56
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Discendo Vox posted:If the Russians are using open and unsecured radio channels, would it be possible to transmit misinformation through them? No doubt is likely happening to some extent already
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Mar 2, 2022 15:56
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499019151586832384?s=20&t=YmdTiviHpSm6YpoPJTASwA this is, incidentally, why the US army stopped doing regional regiments after the civil war iirc, specifically to avoid this "whoops an entire town's population of young men was wiped out in one go" vs spreading it out
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Mar 2, 2022 15:57
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KitConstantine posted:Hmm Nice timing to do this during Olaf Scholz' visit to Yad Vashem. No, really https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-germanys-sholz-meet-at-yad-vashem-during-chancellors-lightening-visit-to-jerusalem/
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Mar 2, 2022 15:58
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ZombieLenin posted:Is there any source for this other than the British Foreign Secretary's off the cuff statements? Given the costs of war--this is probably costing Russia tens of billions of dollars each day--and the sanctions I doubt the Russians can afford a ten year war. The war in Afghanistan only coat about 300 million per day. My guess would be this is costing Putin like half that. But he also has a smaller bankroll by far.
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Mar 2, 2022 15:59
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DandyLion posted:No doubt is likely happening to some extent already I've seen some colorful tweets full of Ukrainian soldiers trash-talking Russians over their open comms, like a Halo match.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:00
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evilweasel posted:this is, incidentally, why the US army stopped doing regional regiments after the civil war iirc, specifically to avoid this "whoops an entire town's population of young men was wiped out in one go" vs spreading it out The UK had similar battalions in WW1 and they stopped doing it for the same reasons.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:01
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Pook Good Mook posted:As people have been pointing out, Putin isn't "crazy," he just assumes the rest of the world acts the same as they do are motivated by the same things. So he truly believes the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate because to him, the protests could HAD to be organized by the West and the elections HAD to be fraudulent. Why? Because that's how things work in Russia. I remember hearing George W. talking about a conversation he had with Putin at the end of his second term, and Bush said Putin asked him, "why are stepping down as president?" Bush apparently responded, "I have to. Our constitution only allows me to be president for 8 years." Putin's straight face and serious response was apparently, "why don't you just change the constitution then?" Because you're right. That's what Putin did when he was up against term limits; and Putin thinks that the internal politics of all countries works the exact same way as the internal politics of Russia does. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 16:01
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Antigravitas posted:Nice timing to do this during Olaf Scholz' visit to Yad Vashem. In other "definitely a Nazi" news President Zelensky, who happens to be Jewish, spoke with the Prime Minister of Israel this morning https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499033687861645319?t=YNcQO6uxkAhPd7PqyOcr7Q&s=19
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Mar 2, 2022 16:01
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evilweasel posted:this is, incidentally, why the US army stopped doing regional regiments after the civil war iirc, specifically to avoid this "whoops an entire town's population of young men was wiped out in one go" vs spreading it out It didn't quite work. But that's due to the way the National Guard is set up.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:01
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All the 10 year war mentions could also be the west signalling to Russia that the sanctions aren't just going to end next month, they're in it for as long as it takes
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Mar 2, 2022 16:01
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So the plan is now to let Russia rot as a hermit kingdom for 20-30 years until it completely collapses like the Soviet Union and then try to bring it back into the global community again(and not repeating the post-Soviet mistakes this time)? Jfc, this was a busy week for the world
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Mar 2, 2022 16:02
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"we are doing denazification of Ukraine and this is our Generalplan Westen with its Reichskommissariats and Protectorates"
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Mar 2, 2022 16:02
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GABA ghoul posted:So the plan is now to let Russia rot as a hermit kingdom for 20-30 years until it completely collapses like the Soviet Union and then try to bring it back into the global community again(and not repeating the post-Soviet mistakes this time)? Jfc, this was a busy week for the world No?
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Mar 2, 2022 16:03
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NTRabbit posted:All the 10 year war mentions could also be the west signalling to Russia that the sanctions aren't just going to end next month, they're in it for as long as it takes Doesn't really matter at this point, it's clear that Putin has chosen the dictatorship siege-state path and is locking Russia down for the long haul.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:03
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Dwesa posted:"we are doing denazification of Ukraine and this is our Generalplan Westen with its Reichskommissariats and Protectorates" Since I cannot read this map, I assume the red area is Russian annexation, the yellow area goes to Belorussia, the blue area is some Western Ukrainian rump state, and the green and purple areas are apparently the areas the Western NATO powers are going to agree to annex?
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Mar 2, 2022 16:05
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ZombieLenin posted:I remember hearing George W. talking about a conversation he had with Putin at the end of his second term, and Bush said Putin asked him, "why are stepping down as president?" Bush apparently responded, "I have to. Our constitution only allows me to be president for 8 years." Yeah, it reay appears that Putin just fundamentally doesn't understand any power structure other than organized crime / kleptocracy.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:05
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Alchenar posted:Doesn't really matter at this point, it's clear that Putin has chosen the dictatorship siege-state path and is locking Russia down for the long haul. Time to send more guns to Ukraine. They can't be allowed to have it. Putin is trying to rebuild the iron curtain.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:05
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The plan, if you can call it one, is containment of Russia. That much is clear from EU/US communication and action. I doubt there's much planning beyond that, and there can't really be.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:05
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Alchenar posted:I'd like to touch on this really briefly because I recall 'D&D threads get bad when they start endlessly circling the same arguments' as a bit of feedback I gave recently: firstly there's no way anyone in a thread this big and fast is keeping track of what's been discussed so I think new people appearing should get a bit of generocity, secondly if you are going to say 'this topic is done unless you have something new to say' then you can't leave people to track through 500 pages to see what the discussion was, you either need to say 'read between p.356 to 375 where everything new was said' or pick a few good posts and highlight them in the OP. I’m very well aware of this, being the person who came up with the specific boring posting rules for this thread, and I feel that the NATO quote in OP explains fairly well how to post about these topics. I even specifically talk about the silliness of requiring everyone to be up to speed with combined 1000 pages of this thread and the old EEPol thread. At the same time, I am very much against having everyone just tuning into the conflict bringing up the obvious things over and over again. Yes, sucks for them, but I prioritise keeping the thread readable to hundreds of people over some individual’s privilege to cause 52nd 3-page derail about whether if NATO did really promise Russia to not admit Eastern European countries. That’s not interesting to anyone except for select individuals who love to hear themselves talk, and, perhaps, it is not unfair to ask for some humility and reflection, on whether if late comers truly have unique insights that haven’t been brought up before. Thinking that you’re smarter than hundreds of people participating already in this conversation will most often be arrogance, or carelessness (and careless posting should, arguably, be discouraged in D&D). cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 16:06
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GABA ghoul posted:So the plan is now to let Russia rot as a hermit kingdom for 20-30 years until it completely collapses like the Soviet Union and then try to bring it back into the global community again(and not repeating the post-Soviet mistakes this time)? Jfc, this was a busy week for the world The plan you decided on in your mind perhaps
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Mar 2, 2022 16:06
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:It didn't quite work. But that's due to the way the National Guard is set up. There were other 'reasons' for this that had to do with the politics of the American Civil War and sectionalism by state contributing to said conflict.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:06
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GABA ghoul posted:So the plan is now to let Russia rot as a hermit kingdom for 20-30 years until it completely collapses like the Soviet Union and then try to bring it back into the global community again(and not repeating the post-Soviet mistakes this time)? Jfc, this was a busy week for the world i read the "martial law" stuff as outlawing dissent and democracy because putin is a little concerned with the public blowback of this russia being a hermit kingdom is out of their control at this point, it's hermit kingdom or back down. but they could try to react without outlawing dissent, but they've chosen to rip off the remaining democratic facade
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Mar 2, 2022 16:07
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KitConstantine posted:In other "definitely a Nazi" news President Zelensky, who happens to be Jewish, spoke with the Prime Minister of Israel this morning This is the memorial Putin just destroyed btw, some Ukrainians thought that it played up the role of Ukrainian militia too much, but now none of that matters as it has been leveled. https://time.com/6102593/ukraine-holocaust-memorial-kremlin-propaganda/
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Mar 2, 2022 16:08
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The other thing here is it seems that Putin doesn't really care what happens to Russia after he dies. Declining population isn't going to be helped by a long insurgent war where your 18 - 36 year old kids are being killed. At some point something has to give internally to Russia.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:08
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The plan is most surely to force Putin to blink first when the advisors finally show him the projections and declare retreat EU can live without Russia but they still want gas and consumer base and oligarch money - the rollback is assured if Putin throws the towel
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Mar 2, 2022 16:09
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ZombieLenin posted:Since I cannot read this map, I assume the red area is Russian annexation, the yellow area goes to Belorussia, the blue area is some Western Ukrainian rump state, and the green and purple areas are apparently the areas the Western NATO powers are going to agree to annex?
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Mar 2, 2022 16:10
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So uh, are the reports on twitter about an airborne operation to try to take Karkiv (and failing) true? If so, what a loving waste of resources, Karkiv is 20km from the Russian border and is in a russian-friendly part of ukraine. Are their supply lines so terrible they can't even flank the city 20km form the border and instead waste
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Mar 2, 2022 16:11
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Huh, effective immediately the EU is banning Russia's international propaganda outlets. https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/status/1499038839406485506?s=20&t=YAThFI53PAu-lQxA-DCJnQ
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Mar 2, 2022 16:12
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quote:The rest of the current Ukraine is divided into two relatively small states - Ukraine proper (Little Russia) on the lands of the so-called. Hetmans of the 17th century (now these are the lands of Kiev, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Chernihiv and Cherkasy regions) and Western Ukraine (Galicia and Volyn) as part of the current Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Rivne regions. Love to use 17th century Russian Empire borders as the justification for carving out pieces of a sovereign state.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:13
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Interesting - looks like Russia is trying to say they have more weapons coming. The man quoted, Alnur Musayev, was head of the Khazakh KGB and is living in exile in Austria as of Jan 2022. https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1499036968923111435?t=u4ZupKV393a0VOKcv3soJQ&s=19 He does not seem to be in a position to have details on what the current Khazakh government is thinking of doing, but I bet he's telling the truth about Russia pressuring them
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Mar 2, 2022 16:13
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fatherboxx posted:The plan is most surely to force Putin to blink first when the advisors finally show him the projections and declare retreat Nah we're past that point  This is Putin's big roll of the dice to confront the West and restore Russia to greatness. It's a fight he's deliberately chosen and chosen to have now. To blink would mean accepting everything he has spent the last 20 years of his life building towards has been a failure and I just don't think that given his actions to this point he's even capable of doing that. The war is now going to play out to the end however it plays out, the rest is a matter of containment. e: if Putin is going to blink then the sign will be stories appearing in Russian media castigating corruption and incompetence in the Army leadership as he hurridly sets up his scapegoats Alchenar fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 16:13
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Mooseontheloose posted:The other thing here is it seems that Putin doesn't really care what happens to Russia after he dies. Like that 100% true of Trump with the US or anything really. With Putin, honestly it's far harder to tell. Like Maybe he just wants the glory of "uniting" russia once more, maybe he actually does want russia to be "strong" after he dies and he actually thinks he's done well by making russia strong with his criminal dictator bullshit. If it's the second he is far stupid, and had far less idea what was going on in his own country than people ever gave him credit for.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:14
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The Nazis have stalled out once again with Kharkiv Mariupol and Kyiv still Ukranian.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:18
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I'm not sure if taking away a country's ability to do air travel nationally and internationally still counts as containment.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:20
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