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Russia invading Ukraine and losing Volgograd before taking Kyiv would make me laugh so hard I think I'd implode on myself and form a singularity.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:58
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Alchenar posted:The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there. Breaking news: Ukraine conquers Russia in shocking turnabout victory
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Mar 2, 2022 16:58
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Jeza posted:It's long been a talking point that conventional wars of aggression between developed powers are effectively impossible because national economies are now too tightly tied up in a globalised economy and that doing so would never be worth it economically. The line of logic that “conventional wars are too costly between major states” has been both completely true and completely ignored since WW1. The question is how you view where the cost is paid. Of course the $ and human suffering cost is immense on Russia as a whole, but that doesn’t matter to Putin. I don’t think he’s literally insane like some people suggest, he just believes that the tremendous costs are “worth it”. Of course it’s easy to make that “worth it” decision when you personally don’t feel the cost.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It would marginally slow it down. As evilweasel notes, the introduction of martial law is mostly meant to allow Russian cops to beat people up outside detainment. I'm not convinced it'll slow it down, Russian cops already beat people up outside detainment. What it will do is make pretending things are "normal" impossible.
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Mar 2, 2022 16:59
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Alchenar posted:The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there. "Ohhh bluh bluh bluh they're going to get encircled, they need to pull back to Poland." The UA is getting better intelligence than the Russians and more up to date satellites. They know what their strengths and weaknesses are. Ukraine needed something like this, a complete tactical victory that shows their army isn't just giving land without reason. If there is going to be a pullback, it makes sense to stabilize a front and then lower your troop count on that front. If Ukraine can feel confident that Russians won't be pouring through because of commitments elsewhere, they're able to pick their battles. The real question is whether Ukraine opts to put troops into Russia to disrupt supply and air bases. I get the feeling they aren't willing to risk the propaganda of Ukrainian troops on Russian territory, but they know better than me.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:00
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GABA ghoul posted:So the plan is now to let Russia rot as a hermit kingdom for 20-30 years until it completely collapses like the Soviet Union and then try to bring it back into the global community again(and not repeating the post-Soviet mistakes this time)? Jfc, this was a busy week for the world If that is the plan I really really the hope the lessons of the 90s and shock therapy are learned otherwise my brain-in-a-jar will be posting about the second Russian invasion of Ukraine in space year 2122.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:00
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:is russia pressuring belarus to join the fighting because it wants to form its own mini "coalition of the willing" to downplay their international isolation, or at this point are they actually looking to supplement their own army? if the russians are having widespread morale and logistics problems, i can't imagine that belarusian soldiers with even less operational planning and investment in the conflict are going to be very effective Russians run the Belarus army, basically. ZombieLenin posted:They are clearly more informed than I; however, I do not see how the Russian Federation can sustain it's current military operations for much more than a month, let alone 6 weeks just to take Kiev--then the rest of Ukraine--and then to sit in Ukraine for 15 or 20 years with a full-scale insurgency. I think that might be more angled in that Russia will freeze its eventually controlled land grab and build a Korea-style DMZ, which will then take decades to fall apart. Russia doesn't appear to be ready at all to wage for months a war more active than random artillery shelling.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:01
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The Nazis have stalled out once again with Kharkiv Mariupol and Kyiv still Ukranian. idk that I'm very keen on referring to Russian forces as "the Nazis" but that's a personal thing and less of a moderation suggestion in particular because of reports that many conscripts thought they were on exercises and had no idea they would end up invading Ukraine, kinda unfair to label all your Ivan Conscriptovich teenagers Nazis because they got forced into Putin's war
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Mar 2, 2022 17:01
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Not totally convinced on the situation or sources, but the Luhansk People's Republic folding in a day with the only resistance being from a Russian brigade should cause some people to reassess their view as to whether this was a country with a real popular independence movement or not.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:02
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MrYenko posted:Russia invading Ukraine and losing Volgograd before taking Kyiv would make me laugh so hard I think I'd implode on myself and form a singularity. Don't know. Maybe they can blow up some bridges or shell Gukovo but I don't they'll be pushing too far into Russia proper.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:03
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Alchenar posted:The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there. i suspect they pulled back soon after. https://twitter.com/nanditab1/status/1499044116528828422 also i suspect this will happen soon, especially with russia going full Grozny with all the cities and their maps coming out. Pook Good Mook posted:"Ohhh bluh bluh bluh they're going to get encircled, they need to pull back to Poland." that too. they are hitting where and when they can and loving Russians poo poo up and that buys time. also more destroyed or abandoned russian vehicles. https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
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Mar 2, 2022 17:03
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Jeza posted:It's long been a talking point that conventional wars of aggression between developed powers are effectively impossible because national economies are now too tightly tied up in a globalised economy and that doing so would never be worth it economically.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:03
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Morrow posted:I'm not convinced it'll slow it down, Russian cops already beat people up outside detainment. What it will do is make pretending things are "normal" impossible. With martial law, I'm essentially expecting a curfew quite soon, and significant reduction in the required decorum for Russia cops to crime it up.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:04
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Do not resist your reeducation citizens https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499042830064680961?t=clt4oZvrPR0r3vheYHdmQw&s=19 A 1984 comparison is almost always an exaggeration. Almost always. Edit: in English https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1499050753637457922?t=wJYZcwfSrMk9vlHEeF7uAg&s=19 KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:09 on Mar 2, 2022 |
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Mar 2, 2022 17:06
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Morrow posted:I'm not convinced it'll slow it down, Russian cops already beat people up outside detainment. What it will do is make pretending things are "normal" impossible. i am expecting curfews and out and out shooting protesters. my guess is the mask of "democracy" that was already half hanging off is just gonna get torn down now.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:06
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Alchenar posted:The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there. Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia? Having a few Ukrainian military units running around the Russian countryside would put even more strain on the Russian military as they'd have to send massive amounts of troops to try and deal with it.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:07
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Zephro posted:It's been a talking point since before 1914, even. I think it's pretty clearly wrong, or at least it's pretty clear that national leaders don't prioritise the economy over all else. Economists wonder why actors don't behave like logical, rational frictionless spheres with perfect information. News at 11.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:07
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Fritz the Horse posted:idk that I'm very keen on referring to Russian forces as "the Nazis" but that's a personal thing and less of a moderation suggestion Alignment of an armed force is determined by its commanders, not its rank-and-file. Said leaders of Russian military are fascists at the very least, so I don't hesitate to label the army as a fascist force, until such time as the rank-and-file stops following their orders, perhaps to the degree of the Sepoy or Polkos mutinies. Not holding my breath for that
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Mar 2, 2022 17:07
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Shes Not Impressed posted:It's wrong. The whole field couldn't predict the soviet union collapsing without a world War and they didn't predict this. As a former academic political scientist; let me just say about the entire field of IR that... let's just say that this part of the field is not too terribly accurate when they try to be predictive.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:07
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MrYenko posted:Russia invading Ukraine and losing Volgograd before taking Kyiv would make me laugh so hard I think I'd implode on myself and form a singularity. Unfortunately, as we can see, it's a big logistical cost to drive from Belarus to Kiev, Volgograd is twice as far away and I doubt Ukraine had the fuel/ammo/food dumps prepared for such an adventure, because who exactly thought that would be (or is) remotely possible.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:07
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Fritz the Horse posted:idk that I'm very keen on referring to Russian forces as "the Nazis" but that's a personal thing and less of a moderation suggestion I agree with this. Russian officers can be vilified all they long, as far as I'm concerned, but a lot of rank and file soldiers are under very real threat, for showing any disobedience.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:08
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spacetoaster posted:Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia? No Ukrainians need food and fuel just as much as Russians do.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:08
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spacetoaster posted:Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia? I would think they'd want to avoid that, as their whole argument is that they're defending their homes from invasion. Stopping at the border and declaring "This is Ukraine!" is enough.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:08
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Alchenar posted:Not totally convinced on the situation or sources, but the Luhansk People's Republic folding in a day with the only resistance being from a Russian brigade should cause some people to reassess their view as to whether this was a country with a real popular independence movement or not. Did anyone believe that? I remember last week the "celebration" for the war on the part of the "leadership" was like 15 guys and gas-station fireworks. There's an actual argument whether a majority of people in the Crimea want to be Russian. There was never even close to the same number of people in Eastern Ukraine who actually wanted independence. From day one the major export of the LPR was astroturf.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:09
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https://twitter.com/2maciek/status/1498972157199765507 Can anyone give me a rundown on what the gently caress the deal with Igor Girkin is? I am aware that he's a prime suspect in shooting down MH-17, has done a bunch of war crimes, etc etc. Trying to square that with the part where he's now a prime twitter source posting leaked Russian plans and videos of their troop movements and poo poo, does he think Putin turned on the separatists or something?
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Mar 2, 2022 17:09
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spacetoaster posted:Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia? That would be a very, very bad idea from my armchair's perspective. Russia would likely get a lot of mileage out of an invading Ukrainian armor column.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:09
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Pook Good Mook posted:Did anyone believe that? One forum down, etc etc
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Mar 2, 2022 17:10
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spacetoaster posted:Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia? Only missiles strikes. I strongly doubt any Ukrainian boots on Russian ground, especially anything more ambitious than driving 5km to shell with tanks some military airport close to LDNR-area border of Ukraine.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:10
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Zephro posted:It's been a talking point since before 1914, even. I think it's pretty clearly wrong, or at least it's pretty clear that national leaders don't prioritise the economy over all else. I'm not sure it's entirely the case that it is wrong, or that leaders don't prioritize it. One of Hitler's big goals with lebensraum and all that was to acquire enough space to build a "unified Europe" that could challenge the US economically. This also included his attempts at autarky and used the holocaust and eastern conquest as a desperate attempt to pay down those economic costs with plunder. Ultimately though their economy just couldn't stand up to the much more united and functional economy of the Allies. The same of Japan, who sought all those wars of territorial expansion to get raw materials to not be dependent on economic ties, especially those with the west. In the end, you saw the same collapse as they simply couldn't outproduce the Allies. The issue is less prioritization, then, and more thinking "this time, we can prepare well enough to suffer the economic issues and come out the other end with enough new stuff to recover and thrive" which largely just doesn't seem to work.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:10
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eke out posted:https://twitter.com/2maciek/status/1498972157199765507 @GirkinGirkin Twitter account is not the Igor Girkin, to best of my knowledge.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:11
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spacetoaster posted:Has anybody seen anything about Ukrainian attacks into Russia?
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Mar 2, 2022 17:11
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Could the US start delivering some Patriot missiles to to the Ukrainians? Would there be enough time to quickly train them in their use? Apparently these are great for denying entire zones to hostile aviation as well as being very useful for shooting down cruise missiles.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:12
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:our alphabet has 44 letters (sounds)  Good cat though. Alchenar posted:The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:13
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What are American squatting laws? How long can you squat in a sanctioned oligarch penthouse in NY or hold boat parties somewhere in Florida till it's legally yours?
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Mar 2, 2022 17:13
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Kraftwerk posted:Could the US start delivering some Patriot missiles to to the Ukrainians? Would there be enough time to quickly train them in their use? Apparently these are great for denying entire zones to hostile aviation as well as being very useful for shooting down cruise missiles. Unlikely. Obviously, I'm not a Patriot operator, but my understanding is that a lot of NATO poo poo require university degree to operate, which is why we've been flooding Ukraine specifically with missile launchers that a goat farmer can be trained into over a bottle.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:13
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Kraftwerk posted:Could the US start delivering some Patriot missiles to to the Ukrainians? Would there be enough time to quickly train them in their use? Apparently these are great for denying entire zones to hostile aviation as well as being very useful for shooting down cruise missiles. if they do, we won't know until they shoot some off.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:13
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I really needed to laugh this morning. More evidence my field of study is I really hate the American brain worms on the opposite sides of the spectrum, where countries are entirely affectd by what we do and have no agency over themselves. It's the most paternalistic, self-centered worldview possible, so of course Americans from both extremes subscribe to it.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:13
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https://twitter.com/Der_Parrot/status/1498801174895599617?s=20&t=6nanpS9wRLKWV-elAy6GwQ
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Mar 2, 2022 17:15
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TulliusCicero posted:I really hate the American brain worms on the opposite sides of the spectrum, where countries are entirely affectd by what we do and have no agency over themselves. no you see, Ukraine was Grima Wormtongue'd into resisting Russia. They are going to be so disappointed when they realize the US won't directly intervene and go to war with Russia.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:16
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/Der_Parrot/status/1498801174895599617?s=20&t=6nanpS9wRLKWV-elAy6GwQ This is 8 years old or something, iirc.
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Mar 2, 2022 17:17
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