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Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

JerikTelorian posted:

I'm not sure it's entirely the case that it is wrong, or that leaders don't prioritize it. One of Hitler's big goals with lebensraum and all that was to acquire enough space to build a "unified Europe" that could challenge the US economically. This also included his attempts at autarky and used the holocaust and eastern conquest as a desperate attempt to pay down those economic costs with plunder. Ultimately though their economy just couldn't stand up to the much more united and functional economy of the Allies. The same of Japan, who sought all those wars of territorial expansion to get raw materials to not be dependent on economic ties, especially those with the west. In the end, you saw the same collapse as they simply couldn't outproduce the Allies.

The issue is less prioritization, then, and more thinking "this time, we can prepare well enough to suffer the economic issues and come out the other end with enough new stuff to recover and thrive" which largely just doesn't seem to work.
The claim that it makes war "almost impossible" means a single counter-example should be enough to cast significant doubt and World War 1 is a hulking, 800lb gorilla of an example. Western Europe was highly interconnected and interdependent at the time (as the Keynes quote about how you could order the fruits of the world from your house in London illustrates), so the argument was made that of course no-one would think it worth burning the whole thing down in a war. Then they burned the whole thing down in a war.

Then they did it again 20 years later.

Now Russia is doing it again right before our very eyes. I think the theory looks pretty threadbare at this point, personally.

And it's pretty clear that national leaders have priorities other than mere economics. Putin isn't invading because he's crunched the numbers and the spreadsheet says he should. And no one thinks the sanctions are going to cause him to stop vountarily.

Hell, America spent literally trillions of dollars in a failed war in Afghanistan after 9/11. There's no rational economic calculus under which that could possibly have been worth it. They could have covered half of lower Manhattan in World Trade Centres and made all the families of the dead millionaires and had a whole bunch of change left to spend on hospitals or chip factories or ice cream shops or literally any sort of halfway-productive economic investment, but they didn't. They blew it all up, quite literally, in Afghanistan.

Zephro fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Mar 2, 2022

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MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

FishMcCool posted:

That would be a very, very bad idea from my armchair's perspective. Russia would likely get a lot of mileage out of an invading Ukrainian armor column.

Ya, despite my comment above, I agree with this. Ukraine has been playing it's cards well as an invaded state thus far, and it makes no sense to throw that away with a diversionary counter-invasion.

It would feel so loving good though.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This is 8 years old or something, iirc.

Still makes me smile.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



cinci zoo sniper posted:

@GirkinGirkin Twitter account is not the Igor Girkin, to best of my knowledge.

oh it's irony lol. people in the @s (and when you twitter search) are constantly replying warning people that that guy is a war criminal and to be careful believing his posts because he's igor girkin, so I'm not the only one who didn't get the joke

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013


Quoting for the new page because Russia is no poo poo issuing required lesson plans to Russian schools on why the war in Ukraine isn't war

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group
Obviously this can't be verified, but deep in your heart, you know it's real. Russian tank tries to cross crappy rickety bridge near a village, goes as you'd expect.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsi...web2x&context=3

Edit: This might be from 2 years ago, it might also be a Ukrainian tank.

That said, I want to believe and it makes me feel good. So it's Putin's personal tank and the bridge was destroyed by the Ghost of Kiev as Putin crossed. Putin got really scared and poo poo his pants while he cried for help. Really embarrassing.

Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Mar 2, 2022

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/malonebarry/status/1499007215872655362?s=20&t=54FNhiw7E9xOIx3GbFtrag

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

KitConstantine posted:

Quoting for the new page because Russia is no poo poo issuing required lesson plans to Russian schools on why the war in Ukraine isn't war

Something something it's unfair to compare Putin to Hitler because

slowdave
Jun 18, 2008

eke out posted:

oh it's irony lol. people in the @s (and when you twitter search) are constantly replying warning people that that guy is a war criminal and to be careful believing his posts because he's igor girkin, so I'm not the only one who didn't get the joke

I'm assuming that's why he changed his handle?

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Unlikely. Obviously, I'm not a Patriot operator, but my understanding is that a lot of NATO poo poo require university degree to operate, which is why we've been flooding Ukraine specifically with missile launchers that a goat farmer can be trained into over a bottle.

I think it depends on how long this drags out. Past a certain point it becomes practical to train Ukrainians on more advanced Western equipment in e.g. Poland and then deliver it.

Like training Ukrainians to operate Western tanks is definitely feasible, we train our rednecks with GEDs to do it just fine. :911:

Not saying this is likely by any stretch, but if Poland gave their old Leopard 2 tanks away in return for shiny new M1A2 SEPv3 god killers it would be an insane boost in armor capability for Ukraine.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

sean10mm posted:

I think it depends on how long this drags out. Past a certain point it becomes practical to train Ukrainians on more advanced Western equipment in e.g. Poland and then deliver it.

Like training Ukrainians to operate Western tanks is definitely feasible, we train our rednecks with GEDs to do it just fine. :911:

Not saying this is likely by any stretch, but if Poland gave their old Leopard 2 tanks away in return for shiny new M1A2 SEPv3 god killers it would be an insane boost in armor capability for Ukraine.

Poland wouldn't give those away for fear they might be needing them soon.

Aren't Patriot launchers one of those things like the F-22 that America doesn't want getting disbursed everywhere?

Shit Fuckasaurus
Oct 14, 2005

i think right angles might be an abomination against nature you guys
Lipstick Apathy

Pook Good Mook posted:

Obviously this can't be verified, but deep in your heart, you know it's real. Russian tank tries to cross crappy rickety bridge near a village, goes as you'd expect.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsi...web2x&context=3

Bad news: https://www.reddit.com/r/submechanophobia/comments/t2n8tj/ukrainian_t64_tank_fell_off_a_bridge_into_the/

(Also look at the top comment)

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Dudes rock :cheers:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499033028424839169?t=0oMRUoI_R0i6Wn-wL4NK4A&s=19

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

You can't just hand someone a new weapons system, it requires training, support, logistics, (all the people to do those things) and then you need to work out a doctrine to actually fight with the new system as a coordinated part of your armed forces.

You just can't do that with complicated kit on the march. What you can do is say 'here is a shoulder-mounted SAM system, it's just like the one you currently use except a bit better and you can have as many as you want, use it like you would use your current ones'

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Pook Good Mook posted:

Poland wouldn't give those away for fear they might be needing them soon.

Aren't Patriot launchers one of those things like the F-22 that America doesn't want getting disbursed everywhere?

Obviously they get the new tanks first. :haw:

This is just theorycrafting so I won't belabor the point, but the US has like 3,700 M1 series tanks in mothballs or something silly like that.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This is 8 years old or something, iirc.

More like 140 years - oh...

(you can also tell that it's not winter)

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse

Pook Good Mook posted:

Obviously this can't be verified, but deep in your heart, you know it's real. Russian tank tries to cross crappy rickety bridge near a village, goes as you'd expect.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsi...web2x&context=3

This is from day 1. It was concluded from the tracks that it's a tank from the Russian arsenal iirc.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



MrYenko posted:

Russia invading Ukraine and losing Volgograd before taking Kyiv would make me laugh so hard I think I'd implode on myself and form a singularity.

*10 days later*

"Breaking:Ukraine besieges Sevastpol as Russian enciclement of Kyiv with fuel convoys continue"

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

There is something indescribably weird about watching gopniks drive around in main battle tanks

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

gently caress. I'll edit the original.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Pook Good Mook posted:

Obviously this can't be verified, but deep in your heart, you know it's real. Russian tank tries to cross crappy rickety bridge near a village, goes as you'd expect.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsi...web2x&context=3

:stare: Whether it's Russian or not I sure as hell hope whoever was in that figured out what was happening and bailed before it went over.

That Italian Guy
Jul 25, 2012

We need the equivalent of the shrimp = small pastry avatar, but for ambulances and their mysteries now.

KitConstantine posted:

Quoting for the new page because Russia is no poo poo issuing required lesson plans to Russian schools on why the war in Ukraine isn't war

We've always never been at war with Eurasia Ukraine.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Zephro posted:

The claim that it makes war "almost impossible" means a single counter-example should be enough to cast significant doubt and World War 1 is a hulking, 800lb gorilla of an example. Western Europe was highly interconnected and interdependent at the time (as the Keynes quote about how you could order the fruits of the world from your house in London illustrates), so the argument was made that of course no-one would think it worth burning the whole thing down in a war. Then they burned the whole thing down in a war.

Then they did it again 20 years later.

Now Russia is doing it again right before our very eyes. I think the theory looks pretty threadbare at this point, personally.



Both WWI and Russia now clearly involved them severely underestimating the cost of war. So while I agree that some country leaders might not prioritize economics as much as the theory's advocates suggest they would, they are also I think underestimating how bad wars get in the first place.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Zero_Grade posted:

:stonk:

Good cat though.

It is incredible that Ukraine can launch successful counterattacks at all, much less barely a week after being invaded. Gives some hope that they might be able to break some of those encirclements/developing pockets.

The heavy Ukrainian units have been conspicuously absent up until this offensive. They had a bunch of them tied up at the border with the contested regions that Russia planned to encircle on day 1, and it looks like they just broke a chunk out of the anvil while the hammer was stuck in traffic.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



slowdave posted:

I'm assuming that's why he changed his handle?

the account is @girkingirkin with the display name 'Igor Girkin'

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

spacetoaster posted:

That's almost exactly what US national guard units are though.

They are not the US Army

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021


I feel like I saw that image in 2015

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

OddObserver posted:

Both WWI and Russia now clearly involved them severely underestimating the cost of war. So while I agree that some country leaders might not prioritize economics as much as the theory's advocates suggest they would, they are also I think underestimating how bad wars get in the first place.

their last successful war was georgia and even that showed to of portents of "if you hadnt been fighting in friendly territory against a retreting small army, poo poo would be bad" they are making the same mistakes that they made in all their wars outside WW2 but dumber and worse.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

the holy poopacy posted:

:stare: Whether it's Russian or not I sure as hell hope whoever was in that figured out what was happening and bailed before it went over.

Yep, that's a bad way to go for anyone.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Zero_Grade posted:

:stonk:

Good cat though.

It is incredible that Ukraine can launch successful counterattacks at all, much less barely a week after being invaded. Gives some hope that they might be able to break some of those encirclements/developing pockets.

I've made some dumb calls so I'm trying not to go too far into armchair general, but Russia doesn't really seem ready to perform defensive operations against concentrated attacks. Ukraine, meanwhile has spent half-a-decade fighting a defensive conflict and probably making plenty of preparations.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Warbadger posted:

The heavy Ukrainian units have been conspicuously absent up until this offensive. They had a bunch of them tied up at the border with the contested regions that Russia planned to encircle on day 1, and it looks like they just broke a chunk out of the anvil while the hammer was stuck in traffic.

I suspect the 28th is likely defending Odesa from the threat of naval landings, and 24th is guarding Western Ukraine, etc.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This is 8 years old or something, iirc.

In any case, Ukrainian PMs did it better, I think

https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1414877329676021778

That Italian Guy
Jul 25, 2012

We need the equivalent of the shrimp = small pastry avatar, but for ambulances and their mysteries now.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

their last successful war was georgia and even that showed to of portents of "if you hadnt been fighting in friendly territory against a retreting small army, poo poo would be bad" they are making the same mistakes that they made in all their wars outside WW2 but dumber and worse.
I guess the main difference is that Ukraine is a lot smaller (however big) and a lot densely populated (however steppish) compared to what the Soviet Union was at the time. Also UA isn't burning their own resources down to deny them to the invading army.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




On the topic of Strelkov, he’s active on his VK page https://vk.com/igoristrelkov - mostly stanning LDNR and being vaguely critical of Putin’s government, ever since he got “politely asked” to leave the “republics”. Historically, there’s been a great number of his cosplay accounts, basically a “stolen valour” equivalent of crypto bros pretending to be the real Satoshi.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

sean10mm posted:

Obviously they get the new tanks first. :haw:

This is just theorycrafting so I won't belabor the point, but the US has like 3,700 M1 series tanks in mothballs or something silly like that.

The US has been churning out thousands of M1s because it keeps the money and political donations going to the senators/house reps of the districts they're built in. The US Army has testified before congress begging them not to make anymore tanks and it's fallen on blind ears.

I'm not a military expert, but if Ukrainian civilians can quickly figure out how to steal a BTR or a T-80U I see no reason why we can't dump all these extra M1s the US Army doesn't even need on Ukraine and let them figure it out. These tanks would be a massive morale boost for the Ukranians and would probably do serious damage against armored columns the Russians are sending in. Like how hard can it possibly be? The only thing issues I can see would be spares, maintenance and training Ukranian servicemen how to load the gun since Russian tanks use auto-loaders. The engine runs on loving bunker fuel if you need it to so it's not like Ukraine is a hostile environment to this kind of stuff.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost
Hey friends, I've just remembered that the Finnish public broadcaster Yle has a Russian-language news service, which could be of interest for Russian speakers. The same stuff you see on other western media, but in Russian

Another thing is the Finnish railways, VR, which has some info here about the train from St Petersburg to Helsinki. I'm not sure what the status of that is exactly on the Russian side, but it could be a way of travelling from Russia to the EU.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Warbadger posted:

Yep, that's a bad way to go for anyone.

Even if that one isn't real there have been multiple verified pictures of Russian tanks sunk or flipped in rivers over the course of the assault. 18 year olds are bad drivers the world over.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Kraftwerk posted:

I'm not a military expert, but if Ukrainian civilians can quickly figure out how to steal a BTR or a T-80U I see no reason why we can't dump all these extra M1s the US Army doesn't even need on Ukraine and let them figure it out.

The reason for this is that the same factories that make tractors for farmers do also make tanks, for the same farmers to drive during war time. American tanks could easily have completely alien design language, as far as controls go.

Rassle
Dec 4, 2011

Now with audio...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQTlT8-qYUk

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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Warbadger posted:

The heavy Ukrainian units have been conspicuously absent up until this offensive. They had a bunch of them tied up at the border with the contested regions that Russia planned to encircle on day 1, and it looks like they just broke a chunk out of the anvil while the hammer was stuck in traffic.

Also the anvil was made of cheese.

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