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buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
I’m seriously hoping the extent of her arrest is just taking her home or something. Can’t stomach the idea of police roughing up the elderly like that. There’s been a lot of bad things posted here but somehow this is the one that got me.

I had ask been meaning to ask, is there a website/resource that aggregates all these updates? This thread has been an excellent resource of footage, tweets, so-on. Seems to be quicker to report on things than the conventional news. But also there’s like 1000 new posts every time I wake up.

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




buglord posted:

I’m seriously hoping the extent of her arrest is just taking her home or something. Can’t stomach the idea of police roughing up the elderly like that. There’s been a lot of bad things posted here but somehow this is the one that got me.

I had ask been meaning to ask, is there a website/resource that aggregates all these updates? This thread has been an excellent resource of footage, tweets, so-on. Seems to be quicker to report on things than the conventional news. But also there’s like 1000 new posts every time I wake up.

Kyiv Independent and Understanding War both have daily live-blogs of decent quality.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


Djarum posted:

If this was a conventional war I would agree with you. The Ukrainians don't seem to be engaging directly which they would be suffering heavy losses. From what I have seen come out from their side they are employing a lot of ambush/surprise attacks, drone/MANPAD/AT and setting up engagements that are advantageous to them. This is honestly to be expected from a smaller force on their home terf. That coupled with real time info from NATO can allow them to do a lot more with a lot less. The fact that the Russians haven't been able to take any population centers closest to the border where supply lines should be the least vulnerable should tell you a lot.
We are basically only getting videos from the Ukrainian side. They have no interest in posting large losses of their own. We have seen some videos of the successes of the Ukrainian army fighting. So we know that they are fighting.

The Ukrainians obviously can't post videos of Russians passing by large numbers of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. There was apparently at least one video of a very large convoy of Ukrainian vehicles destroyed at the very beginning of the war, while retreating from the Crimean Peninsula. We also know that Russia is still advancing in the south.

So putting those things together, I would expect the Ukrainians to also have some very heavy losses.

However, I think that the Ukrainians are more able to take those losses.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!
I just scroll through until I see a twitter post to be honest

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
Is it still the case that Ukraine managed to counter attack successfully in the east? I guess that answers the question as to where all their heavy assets are. Seems like there's a 50% chance Russia might actually just straight up lose this war if true.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


buglord posted:

I’m seriously hoping the extent of her arrest is just taking her home or something. Can’t stomach the idea of police roughing up the elderly like that. There’s been a lot of bad things posted here but somehow this is the one that got me.

I had ask been meaning to ask, is there a website/resource that aggregates all these updates? This thread has been an excellent resource of footage, tweets, so-on. Seems to be quicker to report on things than the conventional news. But also there’s like 1000 new posts every time I wake up.
Live Map with tweets, telegram posts, etc geographically located on the map and a timeline on the side.
https://liveuamap.com/
A Twitter list made by some other goon:
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1495215642760208387

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Raenir Salazar posted:

Is it still the case that Ukraine managed to counter attack successfully in the east? I guess that answers the question as to where all their heavy assets are. Seems like there's a 50% chance Russia might actually just straight up lose this war if true.

Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment. The Ukrainians have always been able to clown on the separatists, it's just Russian regulars holding them off.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Raenir Salazar posted:

Is it still the case that Ukraine managed to counter attack successfully in the east? I guess that answers the question as to where all their heavy assets are. Seems like there's a 50% chance Russia might actually just straight up lose this war if true.

ukraine neither has the combat power nor the political motivation to counterattack into russia. at best you're going to see local attacks to liberate ukrainian ground or to strike and destroy targets of opportunity

ukraine doesn't need to conquer russia to "win", they just need to hold on long enough and inflict enough casualties to where russia agrees to favorable peace terms. this will probably only come once the russian economy collapses. so its a race to see whose population can bear more suffering, russia or ukraine. thanks putin

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

buglord posted:

I’m seriously hoping the extent of her arrest is just taking her home or something. Can’t stomach the idea of police roughing up the elderly like that. There’s been a lot of bad things posted here but somehow this is the one that got me.

I had ask been meaning to ask, is there a website/resource that aggregates all these updates? This thread has been an excellent resource of footage, tweets, so-on. Seems to be quicker to report on things than the conventional news. But also there’s like 1000 new posts every time I wake up.

Three tabs I have open:
https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs/ - reddit twitter aggregation
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&ll=49.39382550788173%2C32.84786878873499&z=6 - crowdsourced Google map of active areas
https://liveuamap.com/ - livemap of Ukraine

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Raenir Salazar posted:

Is it still the case that Ukraine managed to counter attack successfully in the east? I guess that answers the question as to where all their heavy assets are. Seems like there's a 50% chance Russia might actually just straight up lose this war if true.

We don't know. If we did know, the Russians would know too, and that would mean those forces would get wiped out. As things stand it might just be a feint to relieve Kharkiv.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/dsszzi/status/1499140736142700546?s=20&t=4-hUO5N0zXislBBrwSHF2g

The beacons are lit
Rangers call for aid

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

DTurtle posted:

We are basically only getting videos from the Ukrainian side. They have no interest in posting large losses of their own. We have seen some videos of the successes of the Ukrainian army fighting. So we know that they are fighting.

The Ukrainians obviously can't post videos of Russians passing by large numbers of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. There was apparently at least one video of a very large convoy of Ukrainian vehicles destroyed at the very beginning of the war, while retreating from the Crimean Peninsula. We also know that Russia is still advancing in the south.

So putting those things together, I would expect the Ukrainians to also have some very heavy losses.

Yeah this is probably true, occasionally a couple pictures/videos pop up about Ukrainian losses: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499084163261026304

Grammarchist
Jan 28, 2013

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

ukraine neither has the combat power nor the political motivation to counterattack into russia. at best you're going to see local attacks to liberate ukrainian ground or to strike and destroy targets of opportunity

ukraine doesn't need to conquer russia to "win", they just need to hold on long enough and inflict enough casualties to where russia agrees to favorable peace terms. this will probably only come once the russian economy collapses. so its a race to see whose population can bear more suffering, russia or ukraine. thanks putin

Yeah, ideally any offensive capability they have will be held in reserve to break sieges, harass Russian supply lines and keep things off-balance for the occupiers. They probably shouldn't stay committed to one engagement for long.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/sanctions-significantly-increase-chance-russia-international-debt-default-2022-03-02/

JP Morgan is also saying now that risks of Russian debt default are growing substantially

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Russians are trying to get sneaky. Too bad they want to attack supply trucks as well as fuel trucks!

https://twitter.com/Ukrain_War/status/1499135830811881474?t=ethxzBuaGrjaHM3MnxLfJQ&s=19

More lethal aid arriving.
https://twitter.com/Ukrain_War/status/1499134586831642624?t=OF4Faoqn1YbcgH7f-Np3og&s=19

Media class in Russia speaking up in the wake of multiple forced closures of media companies
https://twitter.com/anurlan/status/1499008660743376897?t=MoZG2Bbk0Gdi5xuca4gk1g&s=19

Russia pissing off Japan
https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498903438788218881?t=QjF1Eln_Qp57Z-PAIiTVhQ&s=19

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.

ElrondHubbard posted:

One particular cynical reason Russia may be strongly insisting that this isn’t a war despite that obviously not being the case is that they don’t want to pay out benefits to the families of all their dead soldiers.

I did hear from Ukrainian friend that a family of a Russian conscript would get equivalent of 50$ in case of death. My quick googling didn’t find anything though so I refrained from posting this initially.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Chalks posted:


If they're considering martial law across the entire country it must mean that things are considerably worse than they appear.

Somewhat jokingly this has been the trend, yes.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I had a friend who was crew on some billionaires yacht. The dude would only ever be on his yacht like maybe a couple weeks a year, at best. Otherwise it and the crew of about a dozen people would be paid, full time, to sail around the world to essentially be on-hand if this dude wanted to use the yacht for entertaining. So they'd be in Florida and get the word that he was heading to Italy in a few weeks so fuel and provision up and set sail. They'd reach italy and be given a budget of like 10k to buy the finest food and drink and be ready to host lavish parties. The next day it would turn out their owner in fact changed his mind about Italy and went to Paris instead and will be heading to his condo in NYC after so get back over the atlantic to meet him there.

The crew was very well paid and they basically just got to party on this boat while drinking and eating the finest food and doing mountains of coke. But the absolute insane amount of waste and wealth to so casually be able to afford having such a vessel and crew on full time standby is just unbelievable.

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
Thanks for the aggregate links everyone!

Ashmole
Oct 5, 2008

This wish was granted by Former DILF
https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1499066053829214209?t=2LUohHgutEe0PdmVt99DBw&s=19

Rumors that Russia may try to impose martial law (among other things) on Friday which includes shutting down their internet. If it's true, that means the domestic situation is very bad.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

One thing I will say is governments are clearly strong enough to seize the personal property of Russian oligarchs. Makes you think what could happen if they were this based when it comes to billionaires and their taxes.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Lol I went to the Japanese representative's feed. Check out this sequence of events:

16 hours ago
https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498884583097470977?t=cxMndOxeaJV4ehM6AMBBxQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498895097118609409?t=V_0SvGwWqobSme2MSGq7gQ&s=19

15 hours ago
https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498903438788218881?t=Bd5Hbbr5DFYcvImmV4HVLg&s=19

9 hours ago
https://twitter.com/konotaromp/status/1498997612107554818?t=CiuYSC1qsQHhQyO25Dl48g&s=19

Directly related? Maybe not. But it's a fun coincidence

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

ukraine neither has the combat power nor the political motivation to counterattack into russia. at best you're going to see local attacks to liberate ukrainian ground or to strike and destroy targets of opportunity

ukraine doesn't need to conquer russia to "win", they just need to hold on long enough and inflict enough casualties to where russia agrees to favorable peace terms. this will probably only come once the russian economy collapses. so its a race to see whose population can bear more suffering, russia or ukraine. thanks putin

No one said anything about attacking into Russia? Seems likely to me the plan seems to be to eliminate the eastern front by collapsing the L/D forces; and then use the freed up men and material to counter attack and roll back Russia's isolated thrusts one at a time.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Japan isn't exactly well-known for accepting refugees, or immigrants generally, are they?

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

How are u posted:

Japan isn't exactly well-known for accepting refugees, or immigrants generally, are they?

You'd be surprised! Japan accepted a number of jewish refugees during WW2.

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004



gently caress all yachts but gently caress this one this especially even tho it's kinda green-ish

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_(sailing_yacht)

I saw it in Reykjavik last summer as we were leaving port and it's as awful as you could imagine a Russian with infinite money would want.

Just offensive to look at, even. Imagine the inside.

Carnotaurus
Feb 27, 2006

meat-eating bull
Is it time for Japan to take back the south Kuril islands?

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

Japan accepting refugees? Isn't that, like, really really rare?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Kraftwerk posted:

One thing I will say is governments are clearly strong enough to seize the personal property of Russian oligarchs. Makes you think what could happen if they were this based when it comes to billionaires and their taxes.

whoah let's not get crazy, this economic war and support for Ukraine cost so much that we need austerity

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Raenir Salazar posted:

No one said anything about attacking into Russia? Seems likely to me the plan seems to be to eliminate the eastern front by collapsing the L/D forces; and then use the freed up men and material to counter attack and roll back Russia's isolated thrusts one at a time.

There's no way they'll "collapse" the separatist areas, they are as urban as Ukraine gets, with entrenched Russians. They can, however, sweep north and hit the Russian lines towards Kharkiv from the flank. IIRC according to published maps the eastern counterattacks were roughly in that direction, rather than towards Donetsk or Luhansk

Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

Carnotaurus posted:

Is it time for Japan to take back the south Kuril islands?

There's obviously a part of me that would love to see Japan go after Sakhil and China go after Vladivostok, or at least threaten it, except that Putin would probably just launch a nuclear war in response.

Framboise
Sep 21, 2014

To make yourself feel better, you make it so you'll never give in to your forevers and live for always.


Lipstick Apathy

Boris Galerkin posted:

I just scroll through until I see a twitter post to be honest

Same, and then the following 5 posts of discussion or so before the thread devolves back into clancychat and geneva convention slap fights

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Alchenar posted:

Without doxxing themselves, Dante has posted enough on the Geneva Conventions in this thread to show they clearly have a better grasp of them than anyone else here.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docindex/v2_rul_rule107_sectionb

You have to give them a ‘trial’, a military trial; however let me quote the relevant passage for you:

Where in occupied territory an individual protected person is detained as a spy … such … [person] shall nevertheless be treated with humanity, and in case of trial, shall not be deprived of the rights of fair and regular trial prescribed by the present Convention.


Notwithstanding any other provision of the Conventions or of this Protocol, any member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict who falls into the power of an adverse Party while engaging in espionage shall not have the right to the status of prisoner of war and may be treated as a spy.


This makes the person subject to the governing military code of the belligerent who captured them, and while they must be treated humanly and given a trial per article 75, they are not subject to any protection of life afforded to a Prisoner of War under the Geneva Protocols.

So really it depends on the military code/laws of the capturing party, and if we look at the UCMJ (the Uniform Code of Military Justice that the United States applies in such cases) being convicted of spying (again by court martial) in a time or war results in a mandatory sentence of death.

ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Mar 2, 2022

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Raenir Salazar posted:

You'd be surprised! Japan accepted a number of jewish refugees during WW2.

Isn't that in part to them buying pretty hard into the idea that Jewish people are really good with money/business.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015


Another situation where horses could be useful. No engine noise and you can't get a truck through a dense forest...

that is a joke

but I am fully expecting someone to pull an armored vehicle out of the mud with a horse at some point during this conflict, it's gonna happen

ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


Raenir Salazar posted:

You'd be surprised! Japan accepted a number of jewish refugees during WW2.

And is also a place where the Protocols of the Elders of Zion is a perennial decent-seller. In short, Japan is a land of contrasts.

But also for real tho, Japan is not a place friendly to refugees typically, and this is very unusual. Especially right now when public sentiment regarding reopening to normal visitors is still firmly 'against' by some margin.

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Telsa Cola posted:

Isn't that in part to them buying pretty hard into the idea that Jewish people are really good with money/business.

yes, the japanese government had heard about the international jewish banking conspiracy that rules the world and were like "woah! these jews are really loving good with money if they control everything. how can WE get some jews?"

you win some, you lose some

e: there was also this guy, a german-american jewish industrialist who got so pissed at tsarist antisemitism he helped bankroll japan in the russo-japanese war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Schiff

Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Mar 2, 2022

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.
I just seen somebody refer to Lukashenko as “that wish.com Putin”.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Baronjutter posted:

The crew was very well paid and they basically just got to party on this boat while drinking and eating the finest food and doing mountains of coke. But the absolute insane amount of waste and wealth to so casually be able to afford having such a vessel and crew on full time standby is just unbelievable.

getting paid to get drunk and do drugs was actually the entire US commercial boating industry until the coast guard started cracking down hard with drug tests after Valdez.

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Cenodoxus
Mar 29, 2012

while [[ true ]] ; do
    pour()
done



A number of large RU-heavy fund managers are going through some things.

https://www.ft.com/content/471a38c2-9bf5-4f1b-9bcd-82463b9323ab

Looking forward to the new “International Bond ex-Russia” mutual funds that are no doubt being constructed. Maybe Fidelity can nab the ticker FKPTN.

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