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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:What happened to the giant Russian armored convoy anyway? I haven’t heard updates but given the track record probably out of gas or stuck in some insane traffic/wreckage snarl? It's probably both. They are definitely staging for an attack into into Kiev. They are probably trying to go for a full encirclement before they move in. Only problem is they seem to be waiting for the the troops in the South to move up, and perhaps some troops in the northeast. The latest S2 Underground video paints a pretty likely scenario.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 14:54 |
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# ? Jun 6, 2024 07:07 |
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Oxygenpoisoning posted:To whoever asked if the Ukrainians have bagged a general yet, the answer may be yes. I know this post was from long, long ago, but I just saw this one, too. Has anyone seen any claim of this somewhere else? https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499320660476182529
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 14:55 |
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Looks like Newsweek is reporting it. They're saying it's being reported on Russian media.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:00 |
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McGavin posted:
drat, the azov battalion have infiltrated russia now as well
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:17 |
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https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381529310638081?s=21 https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1499387561470578693?s=21
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:17 |
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psydude posted:Oh good, Russia is now deliberately sinking Civilian ships. This one was Estonian. At this point, are they trying to force a move from other powers? Is their navy just sinking whatever they can find? I know it is futile to apply logic to the Russian actions, but this is really confusing to me on both a tactical and strategic level.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:28 |
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Marshal Prolapse posted:https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381529310638081?s=21 "What if, and hear me out cause this is a wild idea I just came up with, we start making martyrs? That's sure to demoralize them, right?" With each day that passes, I'm more convinced the Russian strategy is to just throw poo poo at the wall and see what sticks.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:30 |
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Mr. Nice! posted:There are no winners here. Everyone involved is going to be worse off when it is all said and done. War is hell, and no one should be cheering for death. I am unfortunately getting the same impression. Barring something miraculous happening, this is likely going to be an endless meat grinder of a conflict. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499388513996787714?t=_SGWNJe29HrQfZ5n0oeKyQ&s=19
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:40 |
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Cross-posting from Airpower/CW thread US assessment remains that while logistics has not been “good” or even “OK” for Russia, Russia retains the combat power and time to adapt and solve their problems and continue toward their objectives. Basically an assessment that people who say actually this is going awesome for Russia are fools, but just because a huge army on the offense has a fuckup doesn’t mean the other side is not losing territory and facing a large amount of combat power. Someone can assume US has their own spin, but for days now the DOD officials and Kirby in briefs have been cautioning that while Ukraine has by no means rolled over, instead fighting with vigor, that does not mean Russia is not making steady progress toward goals to seize territory. quote:SENIOR US DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We believe that the convoy is stalled. It's a long convoy, so I can't be perfectly predictive, Tara, on every mile of that, whether they're moving or not. And a note regarding those who keep focusing on land off major highways (not ITT there are very dumb twitter road maps online) that Russians do not control: quote:And on the coast, I mean, all I can tell you is, again, what we're seeing. We saw them move through this town of Berdyansk on the way to Mariupol. They are outside Mariupol on the coast, and we see today that they are attempting to go down from the north towards Mariupol to the south on the ground. How much of the Sea of Azov coastline they, quote/unquote, "control", I don't know. They used that coastline to move north out of Crimea, northeast of Crimea toward Mariupol. Whether they are holding coastline available to them, I don't know. on the topic of conscripts and how many forces have been committed: quote:
I think the Russians have been taught a ton of hard lessons of ways they have hosed up this combat op, but that is a far stretch from saying UKR is “winning” militarily in the short term. Long term occupation is harder and requires too much going out on a limb. Personally, I think this attack by Russia was a very bad idea for them. They could have just not done it. source transcript, from yesterday mid-US day. transcript takes a while to show up, but it’s way better in totality of context than select highlights thrown on twitter. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2952870/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/ Also in there: DOD assessment is that civilian housing is being hit, but cannot assess whether that is incidental to targeting military objectives or deliberate. It’s easy to think “if apartment hit, it was on purpose and vs civilians,” but legally there’s a big difference between hitting an apartment building because there are AT teams in the windows versus hitting an apartment for the purpose of killing and terrorizing civilian noncombatants.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:50 |
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https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1499310493063958530
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:51 |
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Should've done their PMCS https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1499390932457857030?t=LVlKI6idTKQyvsrWfBg_Yw&s=19
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:59 |
Haha her expression is amazing Comrade Blyatlov fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Mar 3, 2022 |
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:00 |
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Action-Bastard posted:If you're like me and refuse to create a Twitter account and are poo poo tired of Twitter continually demanding you create an account to view tweets I found a pretty good alternative. UCS Hellmaker posted:doesnt inspire confidence when it instantly pops an alert that my connection is not secure. This is from a bit back, but alternatively, put quote:twitter.com##.r-16wqof.r-1dqxon3.r-16y2uox.r-kemksi.css-1dbjc4n
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:05 |
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https://twitter.com/EIzalith/status/1498534079867801602?s=20&t=5s3OjYr1RMPiNDDFNR-yzA
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:15 |
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:I’ve been trying to find stuff on that dude he’s like a horrible Russian combination of Erik Prince, Eric Grietens, and James Mason combined but unlike them doesnt loving post anywhere or have like any public presence. Russian social media is very insulated from American/English language social media, generally. You can find stuff about utkin on VK or probably on telegram. He's not exactly high profile, but he's not a complete enigma either. Also generally you'll have infinitely better results searching cyrillic names if you're trying to find info about russians
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:22 |
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Haha her expression is amazing No idea what they're saying, but serious Fox Mulder/Dana Scully vibes.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:29 |
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Hannibal Rex posted:No idea what they're saying, but serious Fox Mulder/Dana Scully vibes. Mulderov I am very skeptical that the government is bad
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:32 |
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I think this thread might be of interest to those interested in the laws of war. This is from Amnesty Internationals Ukraine head. https://twitter.com/OPokalchuk/status/1499328463081070594?s=20&t=dx2YqYecvVgA00XqGq4POQ
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:36 |
SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Dude you just posted in response and then claimed I called someone a Nazi don’t starting whining about bad faith now I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:42 |
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Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from?
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:49 |
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That Works posted:I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna We're done talking about this now. Arsenic Lupin posted:Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from? TFR
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:49 |
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That Works posted:I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna Ok thread- let’s move on to something else please. edit- beaten by McNally Hekk fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Mar 3, 2022 |
# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:51 |
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Arsenic Lupin posted:Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from?
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:52 |
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Gonna file this one under "This Is Really Bad" https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381363010682881 I doubt this is going to break the morale of any Ukrainian insurgency that forms. Publicly creating martyrs for a cause tends to backfire on the occupier.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:52 |
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So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we? https://twitter.com/EstonianWorld/status/1499378883296116736
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:53 |
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Mr. Nice! posted:There are no winners here. Everyone involved is going to be worse off when it is all said and done. War is hell, and no one should be cheering for death. Yeah. At this point it feels like there's not a good path to stop the current war. Like...what...the "good scenario" might be a negotiated cease fire that ends with a massive DMZ across ukraine eventually? And a north-korea-esque economic/travel no-go-zone where Russia used to be that covers 1/5th of the continent?
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:58 |
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ASAPI posted:So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we? 1.5 but nobody knows whats between 1 and WW3
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:01 |
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El Mero Mero posted:Yeah. At this point it feels like there's not a good path to stop the current war. No one has any idea what a likely outcome would look like because Russia has so badly bungled this entire operation. I think most optimistic scenarios in the west involve one or all of Putin's inner circle deciding to kill him and then ratcheting down tensions. Beyond that I would think treating this endeavor as the first salvo in a broader Russian war of conquest where every bit of resources they expend against irregular troops in Ukraine is one less that they can send to other Russian border regions. My best guess, given the level of support that has already been provided, is that the west wants to make this as expensive and bloody a conflict as they possibly can, and part of that likely won't be coming to the negotiating table anytime soon. Letting Russia drag down a bunch of former satellite states into its zone of economic exclusion would be a loss / stalemate for the west
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:05 |
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https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499415691744923648
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:08 |
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Glad he's caught up with the rest of the world.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:10 |
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I don’t think he considers Ukraine the “West”. This is the start of a possibly big escalation.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:13 |
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pmchem posted:I don’t think he considers Ukraine the “West”. This is the start of a possibly big escalation. They already have openly confirmed Ukraine is not their final goal, its just a large part of it, including threatening Sweden and Finland.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:17 |
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ASAPI posted:So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we? Nobody gives a gently caress about freighters so… still a long way.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:18 |
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I can't help but feel the outcome isn't for Ukraine to win the war but to shape conditions for the occupation to make it as bloody as possible for the Russians to hold while also kneecapping their ability to afford a prolonged military occupation.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:19 |
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CommieGIR posted:They already have openly confirmed Ukraine is not their final goal, its just a large part of it, including threatening Sweden and Finland. No poo poo? They aren’t members of NATO either. Yikes.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:20 |
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pmchem posted:I don’t think he considers Ukraine the “West”. This is the start of a possibly big escalation. The start?!? I thought the "start" was sometime during the invasion, the sinking of random ships, the threat of downing the ISS, the threats to other countries for even thinking about resisting, or any other action they have taken in the past week. I'm having a harder and harder time seeing how we stay out of this.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:20 |
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Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU? No disrespect intended towards the Ukrainians because they are currently punching well above their weight, but I feel like the militaries of both Sweden and Finland are far more capable of putting the hurt on Russia if they chose to invade.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:21 |
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No war but Hot war
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:23 |
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Handsome Ralph posted:Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU? Yes and yes. For the most part: The Russian deployed military is pretty much in disarray right now, they committed a significant bulk of even their experienced forces to this operation, its unlikely that Russia has any more forces to commit at this time. If Putin doesn't go back after Ukraine and massively reform the military, the next operation will only go worse. Their success is largely down to lack of significant Ukrainian units in the Southeast and basically flooding in as many men as they can to overwhelm the Ukrainians in the East and North.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:25 |
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# ? Jun 6, 2024 07:07 |
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Handsome Ralph posted:Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU? It’d be hard for any military to do better than the Ukrainians are currently doing. They’re doing really, really good.
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# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:25 |