Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

Bored As Fuck: Jan 1, 2006; Fun Shoe

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

What happened to the giant Russian armored convoy anyway? I haven’t heard updates but given the track record probably out of gas or stuck in some insane traffic/wreckage snarl?

The more worrying version is that we’re not hearing much because it’s staging for a push into the city and I’m really really not looking forward to finding out what happens to civilians stuck inside the first full scale modern peer urban battle.

Given the track record so far hopefully it’s a giant traffic jam.

It's probably both. They are definitely staging for an attack into into Kiev. They are probably trying to go for a full encirclement before they move in. Only problem is they seem to be waiting for the the troops in the South to move up, and perhaps some troops in the northeast. The latest S2 Underground video paints a pretty likely scenario.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 14:54

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 04:01

PrimitiveDegenerate: Feb 21, 2006

Oxygenpoisoning posted:

To whoever asked if the Ukrainians have bagged a general yet, the answer may be yes.

I know this post was from long, long ago, but I just saw this one, too. Has anyone seen any claim of this somewhere else?

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499320660476182529

# ? Mar 3, 2022 14:55

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

Looks like Newsweek is reporting it.

They're saying it's being reported on Russian media.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:00

Johnny Five-Jaces: Jan 21, 2009

McGavin posted:

Computer, enhance:

drat, the azov battalion have infiltrated russia now as well

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:17

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381529310638081?s=21

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1499387561470578693?s=21

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:17

ASAPI: Apr 20, 2007; I invented the line.

psydude posted:

Oh good, Russia is now deliberately sinking Civilian ships. This one was Estonian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0851056ae56ddc

At this point, are they trying to force a move from other powers? Is their navy just sinking whatever they can find?

I know it is futile to apply logic to the Russian actions, but this is really confusing to me on both a tactical and strategic level.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:28

Handsome Ralph: Sep 3, 2004; Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!

Marshal Prolapse posted:

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381529310638081?s=21

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1499387561470578693?s=21

"What if, and hear me out cause this is a wild idea I just came up with, we start making martyrs? That's sure to demoralize them, right?"

With each day that passes, I'm more convinced the Russian strategy is to just throw poo poo at the wall and see what sticks.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:30

Nuclear Tourist: Apr 7, 2005

Mr. Nice! posted:

There are no winners here. Everyone involved is going to be worse off when it is all said and done. War is hell, and no one should be cheering for death.

We can all hope for a quick end to hostilities, but it seems short of complete and total surrender of Ukraine to Russian dominance or Putin getting whacked that the pain everyone is feeling will continue for a long time.

I think this poo poo is going to drag on for a while, unfortunately.

I am unfortunately getting the same impression. Barring something miraculous happening, this is likely going to be an endless meat grinder of a conflict.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499388513996787714?t=_SGWNJe29HrQfZ5n0oeKyQ&s=19

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:40

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Cross-posting from Airpower/CW thread

US assessment remains that while logistics has not been �good� or even �OK� for Russia, Russia retains the combat power and time to adapt and solve their problems and continue toward their objectives. Basically an assessment that people who say actually this is going awesome for Russia are fools, but just because a huge army on the offense has a fuckup doesn�t mean the other side is not losing territory and facing a large amount of combat power.

Someone can assume US has their own spin, but for days now the DOD officials and Kirby in briefs have been cautioning that while Ukraine has by no means rolled over, instead fighting with vigor, that does not mean Russia is not making steady progress toward goals to seize territory.

quote:

SENIOR US DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We believe that the convoy is stalled. It's a long convoy, so I can't be perfectly predictive, Tara, on every mile of that, whether they're moving or not.

But they are not moving -- they are not moving at any rate that would lead one to believe that they've solved their problems. So we would characterize it as stalled. Again, we don't have perfect visibility into what's going on on the ground there.

But we believe that there's numerous factors for this.

One, the Ukrainians have been conducting a stiff resistance north of Kyiv. And we have some indications that they have also, at places and at times, tried to target this convoy.

Again, I can't tell you what that looked like. I can't quantify that. I'm just saying we have indications that they have also tried to slow that convoy themselves.

And as for the food and fuel, again, our assessment is that they are suffering shortages of both. I've seen nothing in the reporting that gives me confidence that they packed, you know, three days' worth of food. I can't corroborate that. But they continue to have significant logistical and sustainment challenges.

I will say again, as I've been saying now for many days, that we would expect that the Russians will, again, learn from these missteps and these stumbles and will try to overcome them. And I think our belief is that that is still the case.

And a note regarding those who keep focusing on land off major highways (not ITT there are very dumb twitter road maps online) that Russians do not control:

quote:

And on the coast, I mean, all I can tell you is, again, what we're seeing. We saw them move through this town of Berdyansk on the way to Mariupol. They are outside Mariupol on the coast, and we see today that they are attempting to go down from the north towards Mariupol to the south on the ground. How much of the Sea of Azov coastline they, quote/unquote, "control", I don't know. They used that coastline to move north out of Crimea, northeast of Crimea toward Mariupol. Whether they are holding coastline available to them, I don't know.

I think it's important to remember that it's our assessment that they continue to want to move on population centers. You know, we've been talking about these three axes of movement. They are all sort of aggregated towards major population centers. Mariupol is a major population center that we know they want, and so that seems to be their goal. I've seen nothing to indicate that their goal is to hold coastline, and it wouldn't be clear to me why they would do that anyway. There no maritime threat that they're facing from the Sea of Azov. So I don't know. To be honest with you, we don't know that they're holding the coastline, but what we have seen them do is consistent with a move on population centers like Mariupol.

on the topic of conscripts and how many forces have been committed:

quote:

On the C-Team question, again, we don't have a detailed understanding of the whole Russian order of battle. We've had a pretty good general sense and we've talked about that, but in terms of what units are commanded by what leaders and the mix of conscripts versus volunteers, we just don't know, except to say what we've said in the past, which is that this is a military largely made up of constricts. That's just the way that the national defense is staffed in Russia.

So it's not at all surprising to us that you're seeing a lot of conscripts, draftees, if you will, in this -- in this flow of forces. And -- and now, I would remind you, as I've said today, earlier, he's got 82 percent of the combat power that he had assembled for this war, 82 percent is already in Ukraine. So I don't know that it's a very valuable comparison to go by "well, it's whether that you've got less experienced and now more experienced" -- he has the vast majority of the combat power that he set out to use already inside Ukraine. So they're there.

Now I can't say how many of the leading elements were ill-trained conscripts versus more experienced soldiers.

Q: Just very briefly, do you see any evidence of the Russians preparing to send in reinforcements, backup, assembling further things back in Russia to be ready to reinforce?

SENIOR US DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, we are not. And again, when I say that he's got 82 percent in there, I hope that we're not conveying to anyone that that means we think, you know, he's spent, like he's dwindling his options. Quite the contrary -- he's continuing to add to his options.

So please don't take away from the fact that he's got that much already in Ukraine, that somehow, you know, that he's in extremis when it comes to the combat capabilities that he has available to him. I will add, though, one of the things -- and this kind of gets to your question, I think -- is one of the things that we have been observing is that they don't appear to be integrating their combined arms capabilities to the degree that you would think they would do for an operation of this size and scale and complexity.

So, you know, all along, we've been talking for weeks about the combined arms capabilities -- armor, artillery, infantry, special operations, combat aviation, logistics sustainment. You know, he assembled all that stuff.

On the face of it, as we watch things unfold, in addition to seeing stiff and determined courageous resistance by the Ukrainians, in addition to seeing some logistical and sustainment issues, in addition to seeing a little bit of risk averse behavior, as we talked about yesterday, we are also seeing that the integration of these elements appears to be lacking.

I think the Russians have been taught a ton of hard lessons of ways they have hosed up this combat op, but that is a far stretch from saying UKR is �winning� militarily in the short term. Long term occupation is harder and requires too much going out on a limb. Personally, I think this attack by Russia was a very bad idea for them. They could have just not done it.

source transcript, from yesterday mid-US day. transcript takes a while to show up, but it�s way better in totality of context than select highlights thrown on twitter.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2952870/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Also in there: DOD assessment is that civilian housing is being hit, but cannot assess whether that is incidental to targeting military objectives or deliberate. It�s easy to think �if apartment hit, it was on purpose and vs civilians,� but legally there�s a big difference between hitting an apartment building because there are AT teams in the windows versus hitting an apartment for the purpose of killing and terrorizing civilian noncombatants.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:50

Rude Dude With Tude: Apr 19, 2007; Your President approves this text.

https://twitter.com/yaffaesque/status/1499310493063958530

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:51

facialimpediment: Feb 11, 2005; as the world turns

Should've done their PMCS

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1499390932457857030?t=LVlKI6idTKQyvsrWfBg_Yw&s=19

# ? Mar 3, 2022 15:59

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

Haha her expression is amazing

Comrade Blyatlov fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:00

Xakura: Jan 10, 2019; A safety-conscious little mouse!

Action-Bastard posted:

If you're like me and refuse to create a Twitter account and are poo poo tired of Twitter continually demanding you create an account to view tweets I found a pretty good alternative.

https://www.nitter.net

Its some open source alternative to Twitter that cuts out all the bullshit. You can still view all tweets through it like so:

https://nitter.net/CalibreObscura

https://nitter.net/UAWeapons

UCS Hellmaker posted:

doesnt inspire confidence when it instantly pops an alert that my connection is not secure.

sidenote literally just use a ten minute burn email if you dont want an actual twitter account, who gives a gently caress if you lose the password if the account is a literal fake email just so you can read and ignore the nagging

This is from a bit back, but alternatively, put

quote:

twitter.com##.r-16wqof.r-1dqxon3.r-16y2uox.r-kemksi.css-1dbjc4n
twitter.com##.r-g6jmlv.r-ipm5af.r-1xcajam.r-xr3zp9.r-1pjcn9w.r-1777fci.r-1pi2tsx.r-18u37iz.r-1kihuf0.r-1awozwy.css-1dbjc4n > .r-ipm5af.r-zchlnj.r-1xcajam.r-1d2f490.r-1p0dtai.r-11z020y.css-1dbjc4n
twitter.com##.r-g6jmlv.r-ipm5af.r-1xcajam.r-xr3zp9.r-1pjcn9w.r-1777fci.r-1pi2tsx.r-18u37iz.r-1kihuf0.r-1awozwy.css-1dbjc4n
twitter.com##body:style(overflow: auto !important;)

in uBlock and it will unfuck twitter

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:05

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

https://twitter.com/EIzalith/status/1498534079867801602?s=20&t=5s3OjYr1RMPiNDDFNR-yzA

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:15

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

I�ve been trying to find stuff on that dude he�s like a horrible Russian combination of Erik Prince, Eric Grietens, and James Mason combined but unlike them doesnt loving post anywhere or have like any public presence.

Russian social media is very insulated from American/English language social media, generally. You can find stuff about utkin on VK or probably on telegram. He's not exactly high profile, but he's not a complete enigma either.

Also generally you'll have infinitely better results searching cyrillic names if you're trying to find info about russians

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:22

Hannibal Rex: Feb 13, 2010

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Haha her expression is amazing

No idea what they're saying, but serious Fox Mulder/Dana Scully vibes.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:29

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Hannibal Rex posted:

No idea what they're saying, but serious Fox Mulder/Dana Scully vibes.

Mulderov I am very skeptical that the government is bad

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:32

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

I think this thread might be of interest to those interested in the laws of war. This is from Amnesty Internationals Ukraine head.

https://twitter.com/OPokalchuk/status/1499328463081070594?s=20&t=dx2YqYecvVgA00XqGq4POQ

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:36

That Works: Jul 22, 2006; Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Dude you just posted in response and then claimed I called someone a Nazi don�t starting whining about bad faith now

I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:42

Arsenic Lupin: Apr 12, 2012; This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.

Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from?

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:49

McNally: Sep 13, 2007; Ask me about Proposition 305

Do you like muskets?

That Works posted:

I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna

We're done talking about this now.

Arsenic Lupin posted:

Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from?

TFR

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:49

Hekk: Oct 12, 2012; 'smeper fi

That Works posted:

I was talking about the person probed not you but climb up on that cross if you wanna

Ok thread- let�s move on to something else please.

edit- beaten by McNally

Hekk fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:51

Naked Bear: Apr 15, 2007; Boners was recorded before a studio audience that was alive!

Arsenic Lupin posted:

Where is the Air Power thread you cross-posted from?

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3910801

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:52

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008

Gonna file this one under "This Is Really Bad"

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381363010682881

I doubt this is going to break the morale of any Ukrainian insurgency that forms. Publicly creating martyrs for a cause tends to backfire on the occupier.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:52

ASAPI: Apr 20, 2007; I invented the line.

So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we?

https://twitter.com/EstonianWorld/status/1499378883296116736

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:53

El Mero Mero: Oct 13, 2001

Mr. Nice! posted:

There are no winners here. Everyone involved is going to be worse off when it is all said and done. War is hell, and no one should be cheering for death.

We can all hope for a quick end to hostilities, but it seems short of complete and total surrender of Ukraine to Russian dominance or Putin getting whacked that the pain everyone is feeling will continue for a long time.

I think this poo poo is going to drag on for a while, unfortunately.

Yeah. At this point it feels like there's not a good path to stop the current war.

Like...what...the "good scenario" might be a negotiated cease fire that ends with a massive DMZ across ukraine eventually? And a north-korea-esque economic/travel no-go-zone where Russia used to be that covers 1/5th of the continent?

# ? Mar 3, 2022 16:58

Walked: Apr 14, 2003

ASAPI posted:

So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we?

https://twitter.com/EstonianWorld/status/1499378883296116736

1.5 but nobody knows whats between 1 and WW3

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:01

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

El Mero Mero posted:

Yeah. At this point it feels like there's not a good path to stop the current war.

Like...what...the "good scenario" might be a negotiated cease fire that ends with a massive DMZ across ukraine eventually? And a north-korea-esque economic/travel no-go-zone where Russia used to be that covers 1/5th of the continent?

No one has any idea what a likely outcome would look like because Russia has so badly bungled this entire operation. I think most optimistic scenarios in the west involve one or all of Putin's inner circle deciding to kill him and then ratcheting down tensions. Beyond that I would think treating this endeavor as the first salvo in a broader Russian war of conquest where every bit of resources they expend against irregular troops in Ukraine is one less that they can send to other Russian border regions.

My best guess, given the level of support that has already been provided, is that the west wants to make this as expensive and bloody a conflict as they possibly can, and part of that likely won't be coming to the negotiating table anytime soon. Letting Russia drag down a bunch of former satellite states into its zone of economic exclusion would be a loss / stalemate for the west

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:05

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499415691744923648

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:08

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

pmchem posted:

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499415691744923648

Glad he's caught up with the rest of the world.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:10

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

I don�t think he considers Ukraine the �West�. This is the start of a possibly big escalation.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:13

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

pmchem posted:

I don�t think he considers Ukraine the �West�. This is the start of a possibly big escalation.

They already have openly confirmed Ukraine is not their final goal, its just a large part of it, including threatening Sweden and Finland.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:17

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

ASAPI posted:

So Russia is getting super frisky with ships now it seems. On a scale of one to WW3, where are we?

https://twitter.com/EstonianWorld/status/1499378883296116736

Nobody gives a gently caress about freighters so� still a long way.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:18

Soylent Pudding: Jun 22, 2007; We've got people!

I can't help but feel the outcome isn't for Ukraine to win the war but to shape conditions for the occupation to make it as bloody as possible for the Russians to hold while also kneecapping their ability to afford a prolonged military occupation.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:19

nwin: Feb 25, 2002; make's u think

CommieGIR posted:

They already have openly confirmed Ukraine is not their final goal, its just a large part of it, including threatening Sweden and Finland.

No poo poo? They aren�t members of NATO either. Yikes.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:20

ASAPI: Apr 20, 2007; I invented the line.

pmchem posted:

I don�t think he considers Ukraine the �West�. This is the start of a possibly big escalation.

The start?!?

I thought the "start" was sometime during the invasion, the sinking of random ships, the threat of downing the ISS, the threats to other countries for even thinking about resisting, or any other action they have taken in the past week.

I'm having a harder and harder time seeing how we stay out of this.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:20

Handsome Ralph: Sep 3, 2004; Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!

Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU?

No disrespect intended towards the Ukrainians because they are currently punching well above their weight, but I feel like the militaries of both Sweden and Finland are far more capable of putting the hurt on Russia if they chose to invade.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:21

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

pmchem posted:

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499415691744923648

No war but Hot war

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:23

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Handsome Ralph posted:

Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU?

No disrespect intended towards the Ukrainians because they are currently punching well above their weight, but I feel like the militaries of both Sweden and Finland are far more capable of putting the hurt on Russia if they chose to invade.

Yes and yes. For the most part: The Russian deployed military is pretty much in disarray right now, they committed a significant bulk of even their experienced forces to this operation, its unlikely that Russia has any more forces to commit at this time. If Putin doesn't go back after Ukraine and massively reform the military, the next operation will only go worse.

Their success is largely down to lack of significant Ukrainian units in the Southeast and basically flooding in as many men as they can to overwhelm the Ukrainians in the East and North.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:25

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 04:01

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Handsome Ralph posted:

Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU?

No disrespect intended towards the Ukrainians because they are currently punching well above their weight, but I feel like the militaries of both Sweden and Finland are far more capable of putting the hurt on Russia if they chose to invade.

It�d be hard for any military to do better than the Ukrainians are currently doing. They�re doing really, really good.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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