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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

KitConstantine posted:

Weapons posting ahead

One of the big fuckoff booms from last night was probably this getting blow up
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499416997741969409?t=KBZpV9FE1sLdl9lGn82SpQ&s=19

This dude threads poo poo weird, so two unrelated items. Also be careful on the click through - the thread is a mix of images of varying violence.

Protests in Primorsk, which is thought to be under Russian control
The Ukranians captured another TOS-1. Not sure if they're gonna light this one on fire or not
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1499378385398730755?t=LwyVWoN2JsKFfGLu2l22MA&s=19

More evidence of successful Ukrainian counterattacks in Kyiv Oblast
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499400684747165696?t=IMr9w91hzsrVTezsfFclgg&s=19

Its amazing, at this rate the Ukrainian military is going to be able to crowd source the vast majority of its armament just from Russian convoys and captures.

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Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

I kind of touched on this before but I assume that their anti-air capabilities are still up from a mixture of NATO information, most notably AWACS platforms, giving them early warning capabilities without needing their own radar systems on and making themselves known targets and immediately moving their short and medium platforms after a launch to avoid counterattack on the known position.

As for their air forces the guess is they are stationed near the Polish border Lviv is a good guess. The Russians are unwilling or unable to attack them there so they are relatively safe when they go back to base. This isn't good for loiter time in the Eastern part of the country, especially with Mig-29s, but it will keep them around longer.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

ZombieLenin posted:

Speaking of acts of war against NATO countries... forcing NATO flag vessels to act as shields for the Russian navy in a war zone, if true, certainly meets that criteria. Then there are the mysteriously "crashed" Romanian fighter and helicopter over the Black Sea.

Russia has been flirting with very real Article 5 triggers for days.

The crashes were located last night and for now the cause appears to be icing due to the difficult weather conditions.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




ryde posted:

To me, its sort of in the fog-of-war territory. Is it confirmed that the Russians planted it or is it a left-over from Ukrainian defense?

Ukrainians definitely mine stuff like bridges, but I think we can give them benefit of doubt or not boobytrapping their own people.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1499417305037643783?s=19

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012

Cimber posted:

They probably have been husbanding their forces pretty carefully.

Also ukraine has an airforce of 90 combat aircraft, and some 450 sam launchers w maybe a quarter as many radars.
So with good dispersion and camouflage practices 450 cruise missiles are not nearly enough to take out the air defence network.

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

Antigravitas posted:

Some EU news (machine translated as usual):

The last sentence is pretty big, that was a major problem with refugees from the Syrian civil war. They were often stuck in camps and weren't allowed to work, slowly going nuts while the bureaucracy processed their claims.

From what I've seen from Poland, the response has been heartening. I didn't expect us to be as united about taking in refugees and sending aid. It's just a pity we didn't treat those other refugees similarly.

Barfolemew
Dec 5, 2011

Non Serviam
I'm sorry it his has been posted already but Finnish president Niinistö is flying to USA to talk about things.

President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö will make a working visit to the United States and meet President of the United States Joseph R. Biden in Washington D.C. on Friday, 4 March 2022.

At the meeting, to be held in the White House, the Presidents will discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the effects of the war on the European security order, and bilateral cooperation between Finland and the United States.

Maybe NATO?

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



How do you shoot down an iskander? Isn’t that an extremely fast missile?

Is it single stage? Perhaps that is just part of the staging?

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

KitConstantine posted:

Weapons posting ahead

One of the big fuckoff booms from last night was probably this getting blow up
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499416997741969409?t=KBZpV9FE1sLdl9lGn82SpQ&s=19


I had wondered about this. With how fuel/air bombs work, a close interception is effectively just airbursting it instead

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Djarum posted:

As for their air forces the guess is they are stationed near the Polish border Lviv is a good guess. The Russians are unwilling or unable to attack them there so they are relatively safe when they go back to base. This isn't good for loiter time in the Eastern part of the country, especially with Mig-29s, but it will keep them around longer.

They had more than enough time to repair pavement on any damaged airfield.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Rinkles posted:

From what I've seen from Poland, the response has been heartening. I didn't expect us to be as united about taking in refugees and sending aid. It's just a pity we didn't treat those other refugees similarly.

Agreed, and one would hope that the failures of the earlier wave of refugees informed decision making now, instead of, you know…

Though I think it bears mentioning that the beginning of the Syrian civil war saw similar outbursts of support. It was only later that conservatives gained the upper hand in messaging and deliberately made the situation worse.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

I take it Piontkovsky isn't the most accurate of prophets if Putin knows better than to attack the Baltics?

Barfolemew posted:

I'm sorry it his has been posted already but Finnish president Niinistö is flying to USA to talk about things.

President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö will make a working visit to the United States and meet President of the United States Joseph R. Biden in Washington D.C. on Friday, 4 March 2022.

At the meeting, to be held in the White House, the Presidents will discuss Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the effects of the war on the European security order, and bilateral cooperation between Finland and the United States.

Maybe NATO?
Probably that and a Mutual Defense Agreement to stay Putin's hand in case he's feelin frisky.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

KitConstantine posted:

Weapons posting ahead

One of the big fuckoff booms from last night was probably this getting blow up
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499416997741969409?t=KBZpV9FE1sLdl9lGn82SpQ&s=19



From the varying angles of at least on of the big fuckoff booms it looked very much like it landed rather than exploding high up in the air

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


I'm going to NSFW this but it's NYT footage of the bombings in Chernihiv
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499414309645991957?s=20&t=0E_UnPXctuKs7r_twICDgw

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1499419987047587840

Andrew Verse
Mar 30, 2011

steinrokkan posted:

So I met Putin, and I said "Hello, Mr. President, Hello Mr. President"
"Why did you say that twice," said he -and I said, "I didn't"

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

TheRat posted:

From the varying angles of at least on of the big fuckoff booms it looked very much like it landed rather than exploding high up in the air

Remember that bombed out apartment building I put under a spoiler earlier? I'm guessing that's where one landed.

Russia staying very heated in its language.Also I thought diplomatic expulsions were routine?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1499419482317598730?t=WOlxStjFDGJWb9SG2GQPOw&s=19

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

This video covers just how hosed Russian airlines are. I didn't realize such a large percentage of planes are leased.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrgI4gB5W2o

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort
I guess if you're not out of Russia by now, it's going to be next to impossible to leave very very soon.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

KitConstantine posted:

Remember that bombed out apartment building I put under a spoiler earlier? I'm guessing that's where one landed.

Russia staying very heated in its language.Also I thought diplomatic expulsions were routine?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1499419482317598730?t=WOlxStjFDGJWb9SG2GQPOw&s=19

Bulgaria is a NATO member. Good loving luck.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Kadyrov coming right out and putting bounties on Ukrainian heads. With Azov it's letthemfight.gif, any way.

Theres quite a number of chechen rebels fighting for Ukraine :(

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1499419151156363270?t=H2IIDYioEuQIjVRbCN8Dlg&s=19

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


KitConstantine posted:

Russia staying very heated in its language.Also I thought diplomatic expulsions were routine?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1499419482317598730?t=WOlxStjFDGJWb9SG2GQPOw&s=19

I'm sure it's just because of the anniversary and not because of the past week.

Carmant
Nov 23, 2015


Treadmill? What's that? Is that some kind of cake?


KitConstantine posted:


Russia staying very heated in its language.Also I thought diplomatic expulsions were routine?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1499419482317598730?t=WOlxStjFDGJWb9SG2GQPOw&s=19


They are. And so are angry but ultimately toothless threats in response.

D34THROW
Jan 29, 2012

RETAIL RETAIL LISTEN TO ME BITCH ABOUT RETAIL
:rant:

KitConstantine posted:

Remember that bombed out apartment building I put under a spoiler earlier? I'm guessing that's where one landed.

Russia staying very heated in its language.Also I thought diplomatic expulsions were routine?

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1499419482317598730?t=WOlxStjFDGJWb9SG2GQPOw&s=19

I'd like to think "retaliatory action" is expelling Bulgaria's diplomats from Russia but it more than likely means Putin is waving his shooty sticks around again :what:

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

I guess if you're not out of Russia by now, it's going to be next to impossible to leave very very soon.

Actually all you have to do is go to ukraine pick a direction and walk away from your convoy

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Morrow posted:

I'm curious how long Russian munitions will last. We saw they weren't expecting a long war, we saw the UK and France blow through their stockpiles in a week in Libya, and we saw that the Russian military does an abysmal job of performing basic maintenance or adequate appropriations.

They probably don't have huge stocks of PGMs and the newest and best short range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, but the Soviets were really good at making a lot of weapons Just In Case, so there are plenty of dumb bombs, MLRS rockets, earlier SRBMS, and artillery rounds to last for a very long time. This is obviously bad as lower precision fires will increase civilian casualties and destruction. The reliability of those weapons also gets worse with age, which means more unexploded ordnance and general inaccuracy, which is also very bad for everyone.

peej
Apr 10, 2009

Paracausal posted:

ah I'll think you'll find that Russia had to strike first otherwise the slavering nazi hordes stashed in the reichsbunkers across Ukraine would have been unleashed on the poor Russians
https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499307312191844353

So uh how is Transneft's stock up if trading is shut down?

And Yandex and Novatek and all the other companies in that clip too. Russia's economy sure seems to be standing tall in the face of these sanctions :magemage:

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Russian planes getting seized causing an end to all international travel was predicted by an aircraft guy on twitter who also said they may lose the ability to fly internally within a couple of weeks because of a lack of spare parts.

It's interesting that they're refusing to fly internationally because of their planes being seized - there was speculation that they would allow their planes to be repossessed since refusing to do so would likely block their ability to lease planes in the future once the conflict is over.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

peej posted:

So uh how is Transneft's stock up if trading is shut down?

And Yandex and Novatek and all the other companies in that clip too. Russia's economy sure seems to be standing tall in the face of these sanctions :magemage:

Yes but their currently is largely tanked so.....yeah good luck.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


One of the most surprising things I’ve learned in this thread is that renting airplanes is a thing, that it’s actually how most airlines work, and that this industry is dominated by of all nations the Irish

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/Danaslewis/status/1499422667023130625?s=20&t=0E_UnPXctuKs7r_twICDgw

Cool.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

One of the most surprising things I’ve learned in this thread is that renting airplanes is a thing, that it’s actually how most airlines work, and that this industry is dominated by of all nations the Irish

Its Capital Expenditures vs Operational Expenditures. A lot of companies do this with assets, leasing or renting instead of owning.


This isn't news. That was pretty much his stated goal since...forever? Its part of why these "Cease Fire" talks are not being taken seriously.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


CommieGIR posted:

Its Capital Expenditures vs Operational Expenditures. A lot of companies do this with assets, leasing or renting instead of owning.

This isn't news. That was pretty much his stated goal since...forever? Its part of why these "Cease Fire" talks are not being taken seriously.

It's not news for us who read and understood his intentions as destroying the Ukrainian civilization.
For others, well. I'm better off touching the moon than trying to divine the lovely calculus military and IR people are grasping with.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I assume Emirates, Etihad and other such airlines will pick up a lot of the market.

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011
https://twitter.com/SashaUstinovaUA/status/1499420270108553222

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

Suddenly learning all you transnational business loans were dollar denominated might be a bit harsh.

piL
Sep 20, 2007
(__|\\\\)
Taco Defender

Grouchio posted:

Probably that and a Mutual Defense Agreement to stay Putin's hand in case he's feelin frisky.

I've seen the proposed Finland-US mutual defense pact come up a couple of times. It's not impossible, but mutual defense pacts with the US requires congressional approval. It is plausible there's enough hawkish republicans to get through a piece of legislation like that, but it would need to move fast or it might provide Russia a real good reason to quickly exit Ukraine.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

Dante posted:

You wouldn't call the tiny border with the Kaliningrad oblast small?


What the gently caress? You originally said

Dante posted:

Russia does have a (very small) border with NATO.

FYI, Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also NATO members, not just Poland. I suppose the total length of those borders could be considered "small", but I would disagree with that tbh, I think it's significant and five different countries is significant

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Servetus
Apr 1, 2010

peej posted:

So uh how is Transneft's stock up if trading is shut down?

And Yandex and Novatek and all the other companies in that clip too. Russia's economy sure seems to be standing tall in the face of these sanctions :magemage:

Until the Moscow stock market reopens after this week they can say the stock numbers are whatever they want. Next week is going to be special though.

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