Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

bees everywhere: Nov 19, 2002

Handsome Ralph posted:

Am I wrong in thinking that even with Sweden and Finland not being apart of NATO, that Russia invading either would A)Go far far worse than this invasion has, and B)Likely bring about an even more engaged response from NATO and the EU?

No disrespect intended towards the Ukrainians because they are currently punching well above their weight, but I feel like the militaries of both Sweden and Finland are far more capable of putting the hurt on Russia if they chose to invade.

Sweden and Finland have tiny militaries at the moment. I had the opportunity to work with the Swedes once and I was a bit impressed, they were well-trained and well-equipped (I even got to shoot an AK-5 and it was fantastic), but they only have 24,000 active duty soldiers.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:26

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:49

Stultus Maximus: Dec 21, 2009; USPOL May

CommieGIR posted:

Yes and yes. For the most part: The Russian military is pretty much in disarray right now, they committed a significant bulk of even their experienced forces to this operation, its unlikely that Russia has any more forces to commit at this time. If Putin doesn't go back after Ukraine and massively reform the military, the next operation will only go worse.

And reforming the military will cost money�

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:26

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

bees everywhere posted:

Sweden and Finland have tiny militaries at the moment. I had the opportunity to work with the Swedes once and I was a bit impressed, they were well-trained and well-equipped, but they only have 24,000 active duty soldiers.

im sure they can muster people. The Thunberg division will be mean but green

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:27

maffew buildings: Apr 29, 2009; too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned

reserving judgement until the people who said that putin won't invade ukraine tell me why actually this declaration of escalation, much like their nuke forces going high alert, doesnt matter

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:28

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

CommieGIR posted:

its unlikely that Russia has any more forces to commit at this time.

�

Their success is largely down to lack of significant Ukrainian units in the Southeast and basically flooding in as many men as they can to overwhelm the Ukrainians in the East and North.

This assessment runs counter to US DOD statements.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:32

Handsome Ralph: Sep 3, 2004; Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!

maffew buildings posted:

reserving judgement until the people who said that putin won't invade ukraine tell me why actually this declaration of escalation, much like their nuke forces going high alert, doesnt matter

DoD (among others) have already made it clear that they don't see any movement by the Russian's strategic forces that indicate anything they need to be concerned about. It's posturing at this point.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:35

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

maffew buildings posted:

reserving judgement until the people who said that putin won't invade ukraine tell me why actually this declaration of escalation, much like their nuke forces going high alert, doesnt matter

"Nuclear forces are on high alert" means more drills, more "butt in seat" time, and "Vasily, take your feet off the console."

About ten years ago they made a big deal about how the Minuteman IIIs were no longer pre-targeted. But even with the dated technology it's trivial to re-target them. "Coming off alert" doesn't mean there aren't two missileers in the control room at all times, it just means those two officers are spending a lot of time reading, laying down, and planning for what they're going to do when their DD-214 clears.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:38

maffew buildings: Apr 29, 2009; too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned

I get the real dirt from Twitter wine moms with poli sci degrees

On the real though Putin is bonkers so seems like not ruling out the unthinkable is prudent

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:40

Internet Wizard: Aug 9, 2009; BANDAIDS DON'T FIX BULLET HOLES

Last I saw the escalation of nuclear readiness everybody is so concerned about was them coming off of the bottom level of readiness up to the second lowest level (of like 4 or 5)

Not that it�s good but they�re not exactly standing by with keys in and codes ready

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:40

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

The only significant change to the Russian nuclear forces is their ability to be staged in Belarus now.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:42

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

CommieGIR posted:

The only significant change to the Russian nuclear forces is their ability to be staged in Belarus now.

And seeing as they've had Iskanders in Kaliningrad for years now isn't much of a change.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:46

Meshka: Nov 27, 2016

BIG HEADLINE posted:

And seeing as they've had Iskanders in Kaliningrad for years now isn't much of a change.

I think its for future negotiations, i.e they agree to remove them from Belarus in exchange of removing them from Belgium, etc.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:51

Missionary Positron: Jul 6, 2004; And now for something completely different

bees everywhere posted:

Sweden and Finland have tiny militaries at the moment. I had the opportunity to work with the Swedes once and I was a bit impressed, they were well-trained and well-equipped (I even got to shoot an AK-5 and it was fantastic), but they only have 24,000 active duty soldiers.

In Finland�s case, that only applies for peace time. The fully mobilized FDF is is something like 230k soldiers.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 17:58

aphid_licker: Jan 7, 2009

bees everywhere posted:

Sweden and Finland have tiny militaries at the moment. I had the opportunity to work with the Swedes once and I was a bit impressed, they were well-trained and well-equipped (I even got to shoot an AK-5 and it was fantastic), but they only have 24,000 active duty soldiers.

Aren't Sweden and Finland covered by that EU military mutual defense thing?

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:00

Defenestrategy: Oct 24, 2010

Meshka posted:

I think its for future negotiations, i.e they agree to remove them from Belarus in exchange of removing them from Belgium, etc.

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:01

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Defenestrategy posted:

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

I think this is the kind of stuff that hasn't been thought about for a long time outside of a few people in the Pentagon and DC think tanks, but if I had to guess it's tactical nukes vs. strategic nukes.

Not that that should make anyone feel better.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:15

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Defenestrategy posted:

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

There�s probably a terror aspect of the missiles being that much closer to you as well.

I saw a post from someone in Berlin I follow on Instagram, she said that if they got a missile warning the time estimate to impact was already �won�t make it out of her apartment building� (less than 5min).

Shave a minute or two off of that and you�re into �this is the room I die in� range, wherever you are.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:20

Mr. Nice!: Oct 13, 2005; bone shaking.
soul baking.

aphid_licker posted:

Aren't Sweden and Finland covered by that EU military mutual defense thing?

There�s a mutual Scandinavian defense pact for sure.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:33

Internet Wizard: Aug 9, 2009; BANDAIDS DON'T FIX BULLET HOLES

With ICBMs and sub-launched missiles where they�re at, there�s almost no practical benefit for having a stationary nuke closer to the target. The speed and accuracy of the missiles combined with the expected yield of modern warheads means there�s minimal difference.

Psychologically, it could make a difference.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:34

Softface: Feb 16, 2011; Some things can't be unseen

https://twitter.com/annavellikok/status/1499402876988248065?s=20&t=1CpTHgBsCgIrcq1oB3ccLw

For context: Swan Lake was used as airtime filler during the attempted coup against Gorbachev. Could mean some very big things are happening within the government, could be nothing, but I don't think Channel 1 would be broadcasting it just for fun, considering the baggage associated with it.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:35

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Softface posted:

https://twitter.com/annavellikok/status/1499402876988248065?s=20&t=1CpTHgBsCgIrcq1oB3ccLw

For context: Swan Lake was used as airtime filler during the attempted coup against Gorbachev. Could mean some very big things are happening within the government, could be nothing, but I don't think Channel 1 would be broadcasting it just for fun, considering the baggage associated with it.

If I recall the channel belongs to a media group that has been taken off the air for refusing to air propaganda and spun news. So this is likely a "Remember this?"

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:37

Meshka: Nov 27, 2016

Defenestrategy posted:

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

I don�t really think so. I guess it would matter a bit if you launch a first strike against short to medium range enemy weapons and they have less time to react. But if it comes to that, it doesnt matter anymore.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:43

Grip it and rip it: Apr 28, 2020

maffew buildings posted:

I get the real dirt from Twitter wine moms with poli sci degrees

On the real though Putin is bonkers so seems like not ruling out the unthinkable is prudent

Fiona Hill'a interview makes clear that some russian experts believe that Putin is capable of using Nuclear weapons and is doing all he can to make that potential course of action clear to the west. This whole thing does seem entirely unhinged.

Defenestrategy posted:

Question:

In a world of ICBMs, hypersonic nukes, and sub launched munitions. Does having your nuke forces staged 150 miles closer to what you want to hit going to meaningfully do anything?

Like I kind of get it in a world where bombers are your only delivery system, because bombers take awhile to get on station and could get intercepted, but in the above mentioned world it doesn't seem that relative proximity matters all that much as a bargaining chip.

I would imagine it makes a difference if youre a world leader with ready access to hardened structures with a quick helicopter ride. Probably not so much for the general public

Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 18:52

M_Gargantua: Oct 16, 2006; STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES; Exciting Lemon

CommieGIR posted:

If I recall the channel belongs to a media group that has been taken off the air for refusing to air propaganda and spun news. So this is likely a "Remember this?"

Do you remind Putin that coups and 9x18 is a real possibility, or do you remind everyone with second opinions that its better to come out on the winning side of 9x18

# ? Mar 3, 2022 19:41

CBJSprague24: Dec 5, 2010; another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Softface posted:

https://twitter.com/annavellikok/status/1499402876988248065?s=20&t=1CpTHgBsCgIrcq1oB3ccLw

For context: Swan Lake was used as airtime filler during the attempted coup against Gorbachev. Could mean some very big things are happening within the government, could be nothing, but I don't think Channel 1 would be broadcasting it just for fun, considering the baggage associated with it.

Wasn't Swan Lake also shown at some point around the Chernobyl meltdown or am I confusing that with Soviet radio commonly interrupting regular programming with classical music as a Prelude to bad news?

# ? Mar 3, 2022 19:59

Discussion Quorum: Dec 5, 2002; Armchair Philistine

Softface posted:

https://twitter.com/annavellikok/status/1499402876988248065?s=20&t=1CpTHgBsCgIrcq1oB3ccLw

For context: Swan Lake was used as airtime filler during the attempted coup against Gorbachev. Could mean some very big things are happening within the government, could be nothing, but I don't think Channel 1 would be broadcasting it just for fun, considering the baggage associated with it.

The station's entire staff resigned in anticipation of imminent censorship, then started playing Swan Lake. Pretty clear reference to the past but more of a statement than implying anything happening right now.

https://redd.it/t5ug4p

yeah yeah Reddit whatever

# ? Mar 3, 2022 20:12

Caconym: Feb 12, 2013

Mr. Nice! posted:

There’s a mutual Scandinavian defense pact for sure.

Not yet, but it's been talked about quite a lot. Not only a defence pact, but fully integrating the Scandinavian militaries into a single force. Those talks may take on a new urgency now.

It's been kinda awkward when Norway is in NATO and Sweden and Finland not, and with for instance three/four different fighter aircraft, with Norways F16/F35s, Swedens domestic Gripens and Finlands F18s.

But the opportunities for cooperation/integration was the reason Gripen was in the contest with F35 for so long when we bought new planes.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 20:51

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Why would anyone try to start a war with literal vikings or their terrifying hunter-killer neighbors.

psydude fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 20:59

Immanentized: Mar 17, 2009

psydude posted:

Why would anyone try to start a war with literal vikings or their terrifying hunter-killer neighbors.

Russia is vikings too. Just the less popular and successful ones.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 21:14

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1499466387709837319

We all suspected this, but it's nice to see it confirmed that NATO AWACS, satellites, and other recon assets are directly linked to Ukrainian high command.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 21:28

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Immanentized posted:

Russia is vikings too. Just the less popular and successful ones.

What kind of vikings get conquered by the Mongol horde. Just saying.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 21:44

aphid_licker: Jan 7, 2009

Mongols no problem. Just get on boat Svendimir, just row away

# ? Mar 3, 2022 21:55

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Crosspost

Today's pentagon brief dropped. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2954139/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Quote of opening comments, Q&A in the link

quote:

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Good morning, everybody. Senior defense official here.

Not a whole lot of specific changes to speak to today. Continue to see the general movement by Russian forces along those three lines of axes. We now assess that Mr. Putin has put in 90 percent of his pre-staged combat power across the border into Ukraine. Consistent with what you guys are all seeing in open-source press reporting, we also see and are observing heavy bombardment in the cities to the north and to the east, so that's Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

In general, we still assess that Russian forces are largely stalled across the north. That doesn't mean that they aren't making any progress, but in general they still appear to be largely stalled, is how we would characterize it.

In Kyiv, the Russian forces remain north and northwest of the city. And again, as you guys have all noted, there is increasing bombardment. In Kharkiv, we would assess that the Russian forces now appear to be just outside the city, very near the ring road. And again, as you guys are all observing, increasing bombardment there. In Chernihiv, we assess that they remain stalled to the north and to the northeast of Chernihiv, and again, bombardment is happening there.

In the south, we've seen reporting that Kherson is under Russian control, but we're not in a position to independently verify that. In the southeast, we observe, our assessment is that Mariupol is still under Ukrainian control, although we have seen and observe Russian forces advancing on Mariupol with, as I said yesterday, the apparent intention to isolate the city. And of course, as you guys have all seen, we've seen increasing bombardment. We still assess that they also are -- are trying to move and advance on Mariupol from the north, as well as from the coastline northeast of Berdyans�k. So they are still moving on Mariupol, but we assess that it is under Ukrainian control.

Nothing to speak you in the maritime environment. I know everybody's very fixated on Odessa. We don't have any naval activity to speak to or any moves by the Russians with respect to Odessa at this time. Obviously, we're watching as closely as we can, but we just haven't seen any appreciable activity.

Airspace over Ukraine remains contested, as yesterday. We assess that Ukrainian air and missile defense systems remain intact, and they remain effective. They continue to be able to fly their airplanes and to employ air defense assets. And as of this morning, we've now counted more than 480 Russian missile launches, again, of all sizes and strengths.

Now, I look, I know there's a lots of questions about other stuff, so let me just see if I can rip the Band-Aid off on some of these.

We cannot confirm reports of the use of cluster munitions. We cannot confirm reports of the presence or use of thermobaric weapons. We still assess that the convoy is that everybody's been focused on is stalled, and that we have no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims that they have contributed to it being stalled by attacking it. I have seen reports out there attributed to various U.S. officials about Stinger missiles. I can only say that we continue to provide Ukraine the systems that they need to defend themselves, and that includes best systems and weapons that they can use to deal with threats on the ground, as well as airborne threats, and that is as far as I'm going to go. I will not be confirming the reporting that I've seen out there.

With that, we'll start taking questions. Lita, it looks like you're up.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 21:57

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Quick question why is it just say senior defense official as opposed to a name? I mean they�re releasing transcripts of it so I assume it�s on the record.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:01

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

That's what background briefings are. They are briefings that journalists may report as long as they do not name the specific person providing the information.

Edit: They are very different from an anonymous source or from a source unsanctioned by the organization where they work.

mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:04

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/air...sell-seats.html

Sabre tells Russia to get hosed

Between the travel ban, the engine bans, the insurance bans and all their planes belonging to leasing firms in Ireland, the Russian airline industry is dying a very quick and ugly death

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:06

Arrath: Apr 14, 2011

It's wild that we're a week in and Ukraine can still fly sorties.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:08

Handsome Ralph: Sep 3, 2004; Oh boy, posting!
That's where I'm a Viking!

Proud Christian Mom posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/air...sell-seats.html

Sabre tells Russia to get hosed

Between the travel ban, the engine bans, the insurance bans and all their planes belonging to leasing firms in Ireland, the Russian airline industry is dying a very quick and ugly death

Amtrak Joe strikes again.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:09

CBJSprague24: Dec 5, 2010; another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Proud Christian Mom posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/air...sell-seats.html

Sabre tells Russia to get hosed

Between the travel ban, the engine bans, the insurance bans and all their planes belonging to leasing firms in Ireland, the Russian airline industry is dying a very quick and ugly death

For those wondering, Aeroflot has 187 aircraft in its mainline fleet. Exactly 10 of those are non-Western built:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aeroflot_fleet

The same goes for all the other airlines except Rossiya, who are getting Aeroflot's aforementioned hand-me-down Sukhoi Superjets.

e- It looks like the only Russian-built passenger jets at this point are the SSJ and the Irkut MC-21, which looks like A321ski in the same "cheap knockoff" vein that the Tu-144 became dubbed "Concordeski".

CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Mar 3, 2022

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:19

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:49

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

https://twitter.com/civmilair/status/1499495899650793473?s=21

Great�.really helpful there.

# ? Mar 3, 2022 22:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

«‹›987 »