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BIG HEADLINE posted:Not if they actually join NATO. One of the conditions of joining is/was divesting themselves of Russian/Soviet hardware, but Poland's MiG-29s and Turkey's SAMs have kind of upset that. the requirement is for interoperability with NATO standards, not necessary to divest russian hardware. turkey's S-400 procurement caused a stink because they are top-of-the-line systems that can gather target signatures and the contract was structured so that russian "maintainers" had full access to system data. obviously, the US and NATO did not want the F-35's radar signature delivered on a silver platter to the russian MoD, so turkey was given an ultimatum of one or the other. speaking of MiGs, Politco posted:White House weighs three-way deal to get fighter jets to Ukraine
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Mar 6, 2022 05:36
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The Military Strategists have logged on. https://twitter.com/bad_takes/status/1499141353376202759 https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1500325620789743622
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Mar 6, 2022 05:39
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Probably going to want Poland to have some NATO jets anyhow, if Russia is going to keep loving around and the oligarchs can't push him off a building.
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Mar 6, 2022 05:43
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facialimpediment posted:The Military Strategists have logged on. If Hannity and Trump are saying this, then I'm convinced the convoy being stalled was intentional bait from Putin.
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Mar 6, 2022 05:49
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I'm sure it's happened before but has anyone ever done a false flag with a third party flag before
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Mar 6, 2022 05:54
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Milo and POTUS posted:I'm sure it's happened before but has anyone ever done a false flag with a third party flag before Yeah, the Boston Tea Party.
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Mar 6, 2022 06:06
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facialimpediment posted:The Military Strategists have logged on. What in the blue gently caress
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Mar 6, 2022 06:44
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facialimpediment posted:The Military Strategists have logged on. Ladies and gentlemen, how the Trump Administration would have handled the Ukraine crisis, straight from the bloated, permatanned, mental midget horse's mouth.
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Mar 6, 2022 06:53
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Arrath posted:What in the blue gently caress You aren't thinking bigly enough. Just call it the 'Chinese Special Air Denazification Operation in The Ukraine' , the article will fool the Russians. We could also say it was nazi air defence that shot them down or that the russian planes clearly had swastikas on them.
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Mar 6, 2022 07:00
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No, see, our jets are *invisible*, remember? We can bomb the Russians and no one will know! 
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Mar 6, 2022 07:02
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Is there a compelling reason to believe this doesn't end with Putin nuking everyone out of pure spite?
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Mar 6, 2022 07:26
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Flesnolk posted:Is there a compelling reason to believe this doesn't end with Putin nuking everyone out of pure spite? Possibility that the nukes themselves fail to launch due to either being sold off or hosed due to lack of maintenance. Someone in the nuke launch chain of command saying "lol im not endibg the world for this rear end hole"
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Mar 6, 2022 07:28
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Flesnolk posted:Is there a compelling reason to believe this doesn't end with Putin nuking everyone out of pure spite? With the caveat that we don't know for sure what Russia's command and control is (though we know the Soviet system), Putin cannot just launch nukes himself. Other people would have to agree and carry out the orders, and it's very likely they would refuse to go along with killing themselves just because Putin is butthurt. Tactical nuclear weapons likely have a different command and control system and their use is... probably still unlikely, but more plausible than a strategic launch.
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Mar 6, 2022 07:32
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BIG HEADLINE posted:No, see, our jets are *invisible*, remember? That was probably literally what Putin was banking on. Maybe there's dirty pinatas in the convoy for preplanned cassus nucleus. Another crucial reason not to outright blow poo poo to hell indiscriminately.
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Mar 6, 2022 07:39
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After decades of posturing as the tough macho strong man, the rat-faced knacker appears to be so terrified of Covid he has to sit at a table that makes him look like a cowardly toddler. On international television. It would seem unlikely that he's up for topping himself with spicy bombs.
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Mar 6, 2022 07:41
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Grand Fromage posted:Tactical nuclear weapons likely have a different command and control system and their use is... probably still unlikely, but more plausible than a strategic launch. What kind of utility would Russia even get out of tactical nukes? It's not like they're fighting off massive Ukrainian tank formations or breaking through impenetrable defensive lines. They're getting plinked by drones and having their vehicles stolen by farmers after running out of gas. A lack of firepower isn't the problem.
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Mar 6, 2022 07:53
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BIG HEADLINE posted:No, see, our jets are *invisible*, remember? That....feels depressingly close to Trump's actual train of, well, what passes for thought. But I have to ask, what led to him turning and saying we should bomb Russian troops? Bounced checks? Flesnolk posted:Is there a compelling reason to believe this doesn't end with Putin nuking everyone out of pure spite? I've had enough to drink today, and I'm still pissed off enough about the shelling of the civilian evac points, that just...gently caress it. Full first strike counterforce strike. Either that or the oligarchs take this son of a bitch down. Unleash the canned sunshine, im living remote enough I'll survive the initial barrage and i'll go out taking down the neighborhood chuds that want to set up their own fiefdom. I'm in a nihilistic spiral of not expecting civilization as it is to persist through the next few decades of climate change and upheaval, so gently caress it. I should log off and go play some red dead or something. Arrath fucked around with this message at 08:00 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 07:54
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Defenestrategy posted:Possibility that the nukes themselves fail to launch due to either being sold off or hosed due to lack of maintenance. Sideshow Bob rear end nukes https://youtu.be/vSFbfYtba64
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Mar 6, 2022 07:56
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Arrath posted:That....feels depressingly close to Trump's actual train of, well, what passes for thought. He knows it's what the audience wants to hear
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Mar 6, 2022 08:01
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Wingnut Ninja posted:What kind of utility would Russia even get out of tactical nukes? It's not like they're fighting off massive Ukrainian tank formations or breaking through impenetrable defensive lines. They're getting plinked by drones and having their vehicles stolen by farmers after running out of gas. A lack of firepower isn't the problem. That's why I don't think they'll use them. The only reason to do so would to be to try to force a surrender by showing off and that seems like a bit much.
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Mar 6, 2022 08:13
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If he were to use a nuke on Ukraine, I guess it would be on a population center, in the hopes of destroying morale and forcing a surrender. But he has to expect that it would force a military reaction from NATO, so I really don't see him doing it. https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500258525750206465
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Mar 6, 2022 08:26
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BIG HEADLINE posted:No, see, our jets are *invisible*, remember? if they are invisible how can anyone see the chinese flag painted on them?!?!?!?!??!
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Mar 6, 2022 08:33
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ded posted:if they are invisible how can anyone see the chinese flag painted on them?!?!?!?!??! What if we just blow up the Air Force and use actual ghost planes?
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Mar 6, 2022 08:51
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So two new lines of discussion this morning (Kyiv local) among the natsec policy wonks. One being that between providing weapons and the occasional Ukrainian plane getting aid in Poland for all rules lawyering makes us effectively at war with Russia. And this makes Putin feel threatened. He's persoanlly said that its an act of war just like sanctions but its hard to tell how much of that is bluster. And Two it seems that Sputnik and Russia Today are printing dozens of stories each about a Ukrainian weapons nuclear program funded by the US. One that was supposedly months away from completion in RT's case! Just incredible consent manufacturing, and a clear signal Putin seems very willing to escalate this further. I am personally worried they're going to try some sort of CBRN false flag or something else very nasty, if not use a tactical nuke to try to force an immediate surrender out of fear. https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1500349595062194180?s=20&t=Ktw66r3fIAWop8dtnJdEJA 
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Mar 6, 2022 08:53
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The only good nationalism is our nationalism
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Mar 6, 2022 08:56
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Putin is more likely to use nukes than Ukraine is to join NATO or the EU within in next decade
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Mar 6, 2022 08:58
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How is the thread title not “Putin on the Fritz” at this point?
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Mar 6, 2022 08:59
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pylb posted:If he were to use a nuke on Ukraine, I guess it would be on a population center, in the hopes of destroying morale and forcing a surrender. But he has to expect that it would force a military reaction from NATO, so I really don't see him doing it. I'd guess it'd be used against a city as well. Probably not Kyiv, maybe Chernihiv. It might be unlikely, but it seems that Putin is intent on baiting NATO into the fight, or at the very least testing how far he can go before they get involved. M_Gargantua posted:So two new lines of discussion this morning (Kyiv local) among the natsec policy wonks. One being that between providing weapons and the occasional Ukrainian plane getting aid in Poland for all rules lawyering makes us effectively at war with Russia. And this makes Putin feel threatened. He's persoanlly said that its an act of war just like sanctions but its hard to tell how much of that is bluster. Probably posturing for the folks at home to try to make Russia seem like they're the good guys. I'm not sure he could even attack NATO supplies if he wanted to, even in a limited capacity, given the quality of the Russian pilots we've seen so far. quote:And Two it seems that Sputnik and Russia Today are printing dozens of stories each about a Ukrainian weapons nuclear program funded by the US. One that was supposedly months away from completion in RT's case! Just incredible consent manufacturing, and a clear signal Putin seems very willing to escalate this further. I am personally worried they're going to try some sort of CBRN false flag or something else very nasty, if not use a tactical nuke to try to force an immediate surrender out of fear. If they're trying to speed run the US invasion of Iraq, they're doing a really lovely job so far.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:02
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I'm trying to wrap my head around them trying to domestically sell the existence of a Ukrainian WMD program funded by the US; and starting that media machine a week after you've already invaded.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:07
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M_Gargantua posted:I'm trying to wrap my head around them trying to domestically sell the existence of a Ukrainian WMD program funded by the US; and starting that media machine a week after you've already invaded. Well they already tried to blame Chernobyl on the CIA. Can probably just re-use the sets from that. e: Apropos of nothing, until a day or two ago, Google Maps in Europe showed Transnitria with a dotted line border with Moldova, kind of like Crimea to Ukraine, or Kosovo to Serbia. I don't think I've looked closely at it in the past couple of days, but it's gone now. psydude fucked around with this message at 09:17 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 09:10
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Putin's closing the faucet. https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1500366963247394822 /edit: posted the wrong tweet. Take it with a grain of salt since the most recent news from Reuters et al was that the pipeline was re-opened again as of two days ago. Duzzy Funlop fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 09:25
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I doubt Putin would use nukes directly but posturing with an underground test in Russia is certainly possible. Which would be followed with lots more sactions and everyone else popping off some long needed tests of their own.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:33
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M_Gargantua posted:So two new lines of discussion this morning (Kyiv local) among the natsec policy wonks. One being that between providing weapons and the occasional Ukrainian plane getting aid in Poland for all rules lawyering makes us effectively at war with Russia. And this makes Putin feel threatened. He's persoanlly said that its an act of war just like sanctions but its hard to tell how much of that is bluster. We're at this stage right now: FSB whistleblower posted:Now it remains to be seen that some loving adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding to reduce some sanctions. Or reduce, or war. What if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z will be compared to us with a swastika.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:34
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Duzzy Funlop posted:Putin's closing the faucet. Closed? It's from des. 19th
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Mar 6, 2022 09:34
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Xakura posted:Closed? It's from des. 19th My bad, quoted the wrong tweet. Guy in the tweet posted that tweet to point out that this wasn't the first time they closed the faucet. /edit: Actually, take it with a grain of salt, not seeing any major outlets confirming that it was shut off again. /edit2: Removed link because it's apparently some generic state propaganda Twitter parrot Duzzy Funlop fucked around with this message at 13:05 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 09:48
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Grand Fromage posted:With the caveat that we don't know for sure what Russia's command and control is (though we know the Soviet system), Putin cannot just launch nukes himself. Other people would have to agree and carry out the orders, and it's very likely they would refuse to go along with killing themselves just because Putin is butthurt. Allegedly the personnel at the nuke sites etc are kept in the dark, no social media, no news other than what they get from their commanders. It would have to be someone pretty high up who goes "gently caress no".
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Mar 6, 2022 09:51
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KozmoNaut posted:Allegedly the personnel at the nuke sites etc are kept in the dark, no social media, no news other than what they get from their commanders. That seems an even greater nightmare than the ones in the US but Idk how it really is
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Mar 6, 2022 09:55
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:I don’t think China is actually interested in that, at the end of the day while they might want Taiwan and play great power games they very much still want to be a part of the global system which Russia, seemingly bafflingly, has shown at least at the high levels think they don’t need. Yeah, China is more sensible. I mean Russia wanted to team up with them during the financial crisis to gently caress the US economy even more https://www.bbc.com/news/business-26609548 .
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Mar 6, 2022 10:05
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I think China is going to be the key to this ending, one way or the other. I think if Putin starts to look at throwing even tactical nukes around he is going to find a second front with a big red dragon pretty quickly. Chinas going to take over the world one fidgit spinner at a time and some idiot in Moscow isn't going to gently caress that up for them.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:20
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Duzzy Funlop posted:My bad, quoted the wrong tweet. Guy in the tweet posted that tweet to point out that this wasn't the first time they closed the faucet. Asb said Russia wouldn’t invade. They could pay a whole Roman legion
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Mar 6, 2022 10:47
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