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Everybody gets confused by meteorites mention. What he meant was that they are sometimes asked to analyze a theoretically possible but unlikely scenarios (think alien invasion), so they kinda half rear end it in favour of real work. So when they were doing Ukraine war analysis they thought there will be no harm in making it pretty to please superiors and are now blamed that analysis sucks.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:10
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Rust Martialis posted:I think 'prison' means Russia? Yeah, Chekist Dzerzhinsky poo poo. Good old days.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:14
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Any idea on the timeline when Russia will attempt to assault Kiev? I have no answer to that except to highlight that Kiev/Kyiv is the size of San Diego so it’s not really a binary is/isn’t thing. The press reporting of the Visa/Mastercard thing continues to makes it sound like they’ve stopped all services in Russia, which sounds much more dramatic than the truth. So if it hadn’t been for this thread I’d be completely oblivious. Strange times. I wonder what other sanctions aren’t just as harsh as we’re being told.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:18
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Sekenr posted:Everybody gets confused by meteorites mention. What he meant was that they are sometimes asked to analyze a theoretically possible but unlikely scenarios (think alien invasion), so they kinda half rear end it in favour of real work. So when they were doing Ukraine war analysis they thought there will be no harm in making it pretty to please superiors and are now blamed that analysis sucks.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:26
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Rapulum_Dei posted:I have no answer to that except to highlight that Kiev/Kyiv is the size of San Diego so it’s not really a binary is/isn’t thing. Apparently they have in fact ceased all services in Russia--their cards will still work within Russia--and only within Russia--but the payments will be processed by Russia's National Payment Card System, not by Visa or Mastercard: quote:As noted by Bloomberg, anyone with a card issued in Russia will still be able to pay for products and services with Mastercard and Visa cards, however, neither financial company will process the transactions — Russia’s National Payment Card System (NSPK) will have to handle them instead. https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/5/22963433/visa-mastercard-suspend-services-russia-ukraine
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Mar 6, 2022 09:28
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buglord posted:Is Russian and Ukranian mutually intelligible? Wikipedia says "partially, and as a monolingual english speaker I don't really have a basis of understanding on this. The only parallel I think I can draw is the difference between US english and the kind of english that the one irish farmer mad about his sheep speaks. With some exposure, like almost all Ukrainians have of Russian, definitely. If some Russian never heard a word of Ukrainian, maybe not so much. They are similar Slavic languages that share a lot but some vocabulary is just completely different and you'll never figure out without a lot of context for example. Maybe something like Polish vs Slovak, if that helps 
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Mar 6, 2022 09:32
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Give both languages a spin in Duolingo, the differences are quickly apparent. Not that that's an authoritative source or anything, but it's a quick illustration.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:38
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For example, in russian the phrase "Russian soldier" translates almost directly as "tsars man at arms", but in Ukrainian, where they wanted to break from the tsar roots, the same phrase translates as "sunflower planter"
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Mar 6, 2022 09:41
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Rinkles posted:"rozjebane ruskie gowno" That looks like a destroyed fuel tanker as well... logistics.  
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Mar 6, 2022 09:43
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dead Russian soldier at the end
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Cable Guy posted:My impression was meteorites being a bad translation for nukes... but I could be wrong I am positive. Also, mentions of prisons is due to context, previously this FSB contact was helping out gulagu.net with info on torture in Russian prisons. It is the reason they were in touch with one another before the war.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:44
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"Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces." Is there are confirmation that the Chechens column got wrecked? There was talk one of the Chechen generals got taken out but I think he's still wandering around in Ukraine. If it's fake propaganda put out by the Ukrainians to mess with the FSB it's something they'll know straight away.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:56
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Youth Decay posted:Party like it's 1914 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Yser If we're going WW1 the russian Lake Naroch offensive 18–30 March 1916 might be better. As Norman Stone in 'The eastern front 1914-17 puts it: 'The offensive was carried out at a time of the year that could not have been less suitable if it had been chosen by the Germans'. https://weaponsandwarfare.com/2015/10/31/lake-narotch-was-one-of-the-decisive-battles-of-the-first-world-war/ has cribbed the pages from Norman stone's book.
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Mar 6, 2022 09:57
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Comstar posted:This is long, but it only got posted 2 hours ago, and it sums everything up everyone in the thread's been talking about. i don't think any of this is particularly good news, i don't get the impression that putin is directly threatened, just that the bureaucracy is unstable and confused, which could be dangerous. if the document is real and accurate the invasion was started because of overly optimistic reports from the bottom, made under coercion from the top, to allow the top to fool itself into thinking it would be easy. this means that the analysts and lower bureaucrats still have very little real power to affect decisions at the top and the outcome in russia will depend on the extent to which the top can be rational. a tactical nuke on ukraine would be a disaster and would definitively isolate putin, but it might be the thing that putin and company end up reaching for if they feel sufficiently cornered im also not convinced that the famine scenario is unrealistic, it probably won't be an actual famine in europe or the wealthy sections of asia, which will just buy up food at higher prices, but it could happen in africa and in the west it would cause a severe economic contraction
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Mar 6, 2022 09:59
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NTRabbit posted:The Kuril Islands, seized at the end of WW2 Also apparently the southern half of Sakhalin, but that position is less common.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:11
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Scapegoat posted:"Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces." That first convoy that got kabloowied trying to take Hostomel Airport on the 26th was reportedly the Chechens. The theory is that they wanted to take the airport to get resupplied on their way to nabbing Zelensky.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:13
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Shibawanko posted:i don't think any of this is particularly good news, i don't get the impression that putin is directly threatened, just that the bureaucracy is unstable and confused, which could be dangerous. Well, that's particularly good news for Ukraine. At this point, the entire concept of russia being able to re-rail their invasion and defeat the standing Ukranian forces / take the major cities / depose the government? Relies entirely on russia's command structure rapidly getting its poo poo together, reforming its invasion and occupancy plans, fixing the logistical crisis, and so forth. As long as Upper Management is running around on fire, the odds of coherent invasion-unfucking being implemented is ... low. putin can't really pull the most typical means of reorientation, in effect 'call upon strongly qualified operators who could take the reins and steer the invasion back on track,' because anyone like that represents an autocratic challenge, and would have been palace intrigued out. nope. it's all got to go through mr. best brains himself.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:15
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Sekenr posted:Everybody gets confused by meteorites mention. What he meant was that they are sometimes asked to analyze a theoretically possible but unlikely scenarios (think alien invasion), so they kinda half rear end it in favour of real work. So when they were doing Ukraine war analysis they thought there will be no harm in making it pretty to please superiors and are now blamed that analysis sucks. Yeah, this. It's obvious from the context that "meteorites" means an unlikely event which you can safely say you've planned for, because it's never going to happen.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:18
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Any idea on the timeline when Russia will attempt to assault Kiev? If Kyiv goes like Mariupol or Sumy then they’re probably not going to assault it, just artillery strike civilian infrastructure until it all breaks and the city slowly becomes unlivable. Reports of power stations being shelled are getting common, there’s been an attempt at missile striking the Kyiv hydroelectric and moves for the dam South of Kyiv. Ukraine’s grid is not connected to Europe’s so it’s kind of amazing it’s held up in Kyiv as long as it has. A lot of places in Ukraine are out of power and once it goes heat and water follow shortly.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:18
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Scapegoat posted:"Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces." idk about the specifics of that column, but gonna point out that the odds that someone (or hell even a bunch of people) in the FSB wanting Kadyrov's forces weakened or dead enough to leak their movements is incredibly believable. Kadyrov has a huge, huge number of enemies, both in chechnya and especially in Russia and his faction basically exists parallel to the FSB and they are notably loyal only really to Kadyrov (and Kadyrov, in turn, only to Putin). Obviously there are other likely explanations like sigint of some kind, but the FSB or even people in the russian military wanting to gently caress over Kadyrov is eminently believable.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:25
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Djarum posted:Them using civilian vehicles is a VERY, VERY bad idea. They will be shredded by small arms fire. Hell that NYT article states that they just received a shipment of Barrets, which means you can have a team over a mile away disabling them basically at will. There is always the chance that Ukrainian forces would hesitate firing upon Ukrainian civilian vehicles……… but also the possibility that Russian forces might fire upon themselves as well
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Mar 6, 2022 10:27
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Chopstix posted:There is always the chance that Ukrainian forces would hesitate firing upon Ukrainian civilian vehicles……… but also the possibility that Russian forces might fire upon themselves as well I mean if they're mixed in with a convey of military trucks and have Vs on the side or whatever there's not much likelihood that they're full of Ukrainian schoolkids. I can just imagine the simultaneous "What. The. gently caress. Are. You. Doing?" when that footage of those trains was picked up by various intelligence agencies around the world. It will be interesting to see if you see China and India among others walk back some of their neutrality on the war so far in light of that too. They do have ties to Russia but no one likes a loser.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:38
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Apparently they have in fact ceased all services in Russia--their cards will still work within Russia--and only within Russia--but the payments will be processed by Russia's National Payment Card System, not by Visa or Mastercard: My wife was contacted by her bank this morning, and was told to pick up cash, and she has until March 10, after which her cards will stop working. The bank also said that they are working on finding ways to sort out the situation mentioning UnionPay as an option and providing people with "online bank cards" that Russians abroad can set up with their mobile payment apps, but nothing is certain.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:38
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1500160062354034689?t=5NpSCsWRZVmPo_bUX_wWVw&s=19 New russian armor tech just dropped rear end cobra posted:Is there a word for being a good former gifted but misunderstood kid turned hillaryman, turned Bernie dead ender, turned raging nihilist who sees through the propaganda that every lib cheesedick is falling for, and to prove how extra wrong it is they instead gobble up whatever horseshit the other side is putting out 100%? 'Useful idiot' is the academic term IIRC
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Mar 6, 2022 10:49
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Three fairly trite observations on the civilian vehicles being mobilized: 1) Russia takes the prospect of peer warfare far more seriously and plans for it far more than we do. Yes this war has exposed severe structural problems in the armed forces, but they had a plan ready to go to mobilise the civilian economy to support the war effort and a week in they started activating it. The fact that Russia has plans to do this should have been one of those long term indicators telling people 'Putin really would have a war'. Aside from spending more on defence, Western governments need to have much more serious conversations about what moving to a 'war footing' would look like in order to maintain a credible detterence posture. 2) These vehicles are obviously not military standard and shouldn't last long in a warzone, however if they've been in regular use and maintained then they might actually last longer than the military kit! 3) This move accelerates Russia's economic problems. What do you think happens to a local economy when you remove all the light goods vehicles from it?
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Mar 6, 2022 10:51
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Wrt the similarities between Russian and Ukrainian, I've found this guy's channel to be interesting/useful for accessible linguistics explanations. His Russian and Ukrainian comparison video: https://youtu.be/CQLM62r5nLI
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Mar 6, 2022 10:55
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Alchenar posted:3) This move accelerates Russia's economic problems. What do you think happens to a local economy when you remove all the light goods vehicles from it?
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Mar 6, 2022 10:55
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Not sure why people think they’re for logistics, it’s buses,minivans and cars, they’re not shipping out goods trucks.
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Mar 6, 2022 10:55
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Fans posted:Not sure why people think they’re for logistics, it’s buses,minivans and cars, they’re not shipping out goods trucks. Probably
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Mar 6, 2022 10:57
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Scene dressing for Russian ‘everything is fine’ propaganda videos then?
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Mar 6, 2022 10:57
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Alchenar posted:Three fairly trite observations on the civilian vehicles being mobilized: 1) It starts to seem more clear that the Russians didn't plan for what is happening now and they are making shut up as they go. It's why a lot of their actions do not make much sense since they're reactions to specific situations seen from their point of view. And their point of view is muchly corrupted and distorted by their own lies This is more likely a improvised attempt to get more supplies to the troops that lack them. 2) no, a civilian vehicle will not last longer in a war zone even if better maintained. One accidental bullet can disable it completely. 3) totally agree here, the economy alongside with any wellbeing will collapse
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Mar 6, 2022 11:05
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This is big and can't be ignored by Putin. The Fascist Italy Army Commander to his Nazi Germany just resigned and said nobody above the rank of Captain was going to go to war either, and there's no point in replacing them because no one else wants to go to war either. https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1500374879908114438?s=20&t=90UPbofERQ9e6kmcmUWBUA  Comstar fucked around with this message at 11:10 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 11:07
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That is big enough news that it would be good to have corroboration from an official source.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:10
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rear end cobra posted:Is there a word for being a good former gifted but misunderstood kid turned hillaryman, turned Bernie dead ender, turned raging nihilist who sees through the propaganda that every lib cheesedick is falling for, and to prove how extra wrong it is they instead gobble up whatever horseshit the other side is putting out 100%? the popes toes posted:All the Germans are asleep they would know Lacksäufer. Used like this: Me on my way back from the hardware store after an employee told me that they are out of lacquer because the Russians drank the entire global supply. There's also a new Tintin book coming out. e: If you're wondering where the dog is: Here e2: Tagesschau posted:According to Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing, Germany is supporting the people in Ukraine with relief goods with the help of a "rail bridge". "Deutsche Bahn is currently collecting relief goods on a large scale throughout Germany from producers and wholesalers, which are then put together into container trains and transported by rail to Ukraine," Wissing told the newspaper Bild am Sonntag. For this purpose, he said, Deutsche Bahn has created a network with European railways. "The whole thing is not meant to be a one-off action, but we are building a rail bridge that will help the people in Ukraine in the long term," Wissing explained. Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 11:11
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I'm surprised the Russian's haven't knocked out the rail stations and railway bridges in the western part of Ukraine.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:27
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Xotl posted:Was that bit about meteorites an accurate translation? Yes, that was just what we call a “winged metaphor”.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:29
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Antigravitas posted:Lacksäufer. Used like this: Me on my way back from the hardware store after an employee told me that they are out of lacquer because the Russians drank the entire global supply. The use of word "illegal" here is very interesting.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:32
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Comstar posted:This is big and can't be ignored by Putin. The Fascist Italy Army Commander to his Nazi Germany just resigned and said nobody above the rank of Captain was going to go to war either, and there's no point in replacing them because no one else wants to go to war either. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1500400773636796418
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Mar 6, 2022 11:32
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Beefeater1980 posted:That is big enough news that it would be good to have corroboration from an official source. It seems consistent with a lot of the other noise coming out of Belarus. https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1500197649307348994
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Mar 6, 2022 11:32
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Comstar posted:I'm surprised the Russian's haven't knocked out the rail stations and railway bridges in the western part of Ukraine.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:36
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Comstar posted:This is big and can't be ignored by Putin. The Fascist Italy Army Commander to his Nazi Germany just resigned and said nobody above the rank of Captain was going to go to war either, and there's no point in replacing them because no one else wants to go to war either. I suspect there's a fair possibility that this is Lukashenko walking his tightrope and having his army manufacture a thin excuse to Putin for why he can't show up to the party. Like if you take that note on face value then he's saying he's possibly on the brink of regime collapse. I don't think that's true.
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Mar 6, 2022 11:36
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