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AFAIK both Coke and Pepsi are still selling in Russia.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:40
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ZombieLenin posted:Jesus. It just doesn’t make any sense to me when I keep hearing military analysts say, “oh, the Russian army will learn its lesson, recover, and take out the Ukrainian army” while at the same time I am reading this, or something like it, every day. On one hand the Russians seeing their catastrophic problems and putting together solid plans to resolve them seems like an obvious thing to happen. On the other hand, the cause of these problems are "the entire military power structure in Russia is corrupt and has ruthlessly removed anyone with the competence to fix it". Who is going to be saying "the generals have been taking bribes and lying about the state of the entire armed forces"? Where are these incorruptible individuals going to be summoned from? We're expecting the military establishment to solve this problem even when they are the problem, at every level. Every single part of their military may have been hollowed out and nobody is going to know until they put it in the field. I doubt you could bring in an external team of military experts to unfuck this mess. You ask the guy who took the bribes to explain why everything is going wrong, the explanation is going to be designed to cover his rear end and any plan will be useless.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, this is a more precisely stated and better phrased version of what I was aiming for above. Your general argument is valid, but I feel it's a bit undercut by the fact that Germany and France didn't bomb Iraq and likely won't bomb Iraq in the near future, either.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:40
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Pooned posted:Are there other instances of a superior invading force losing this much equipment behind enemy lines to an inferior force one week into an invasion? Post WW2 I guess. Soviet-Afghan War? Longer time period, but much more equipment was lost.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:41
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SaTaMaS posted:Soviet-Afghan War? Longer time period, but much more equipment was lost. The Americans list more equipment I think in both Mosel and Afghanistan.South Vietnam too. More tanks this time though.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:44
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There's no modern parallel. You have to go back to the First Sino-Japanese War to find a comparable military force in terms of rampant corruption and undeserved reputation.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:44
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Pooned posted:Are there other instances of a superior invading force losing this much equipment behind enemy lines to an inferior force one week into an invasion? Post WW2 I guess. France in Vietnam is pretty much the most striking example of this I'm aware of. KSA's absolute disaster of a war in Yemen is a close second. Bernard Fall's books, which I shout-out here semi-regularly, cover just what went wrong well. Street Without Joy covers French highway fighting against Vietnamese forces that they often outnumbered 5 or even 10 to 1 yet they still took huge losses from over and over and over. The failures and captures and destruction of huge amounts of French equipment on highways led into the French adopting their strategy of building huge strategic bases from which to operate out of. Hell in a Very Small Place is about the hubris and eventual collapse of the French in Dien Bien Phu. The French forces didn't believe themselves invincible, but on a strategic level, the French clearly felt that defeat was impossible and that there was basically no way that their advantages would not ultimately result in a victory if given enough time. They were wrong. Saudi Arabia in Yemen is an interesting example because KSA has one of the best funded armies on the planet. I mention periodically that KSA is spending Germany in the 1930s percent of GDP on its military. They have, on paper, a well-equipped ostensibly capable army, but outside of being able to wage a questionably effective air war, albeit one still very lethal to civilians, they struggled to find any kind of military success in Yemen at all. Once the US stopped refueling support of the KSA air force they somehow became even less effective. Similarly, KSA eventually split from their other major ally in the conflict UAE and that was basically the end of any Saudi operational effectiveness. On the ground, Saudi tanks were pretty much only ever deployed without infantry support and saudi vehicles in general would just try to conduct operations by driving through areas as fast as possible and were infamously abandoning armor at the the first signs of contact. I darkly joke sometimes that the saudi military was managing to militarily lose a genocide, but it's not far from the truth. Once the US withdrew about 90-95% of all support they were giving to KSA, Houthis effectively pushed KSA back past the border and started launching cross border attacks into Saudi Arabia, both by land and with drones and missiles. I'm not an expert on the KSA-Yemen conflict so I'd love to hear a better breakdown, but from what I know, the big things going wrong were 1) absolutely boneheaded military leadership compounded by massive amounts of nepotism in the officer class, wildly ineffective/counterproductive command staff 2) extreme hubris and conviction that they couldn't possibly lose to barefoot yemenis 3) most of the military had basically zero prior military experience 4) extremely unclear objectives, effectively trying to just kill yemenis more than accomplish anything. 5) Iranian aid to the Houthis was very good and greatly amplified their ability to inflict losses on the Saudi military. Ironically the main thing KSA even did that had a huge impact on Yemen was imposing the genocidal blockade. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 22:46
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Comstar posted:The Americans list more equipment I think in both Mosel and Afghanistan.South Vietnam too. Those were withdrawals though. Russia is somehow losing all of this stuff while attacking and operationally advancing in many areas. That in particular is the thing I think is unprecedented.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:49
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SaTaMaS posted:Soviet-Afghan War? Longer time period, but much more equipment was lost. I believe, on Friday, the costs in verified Russian equipment losses exceeded $3b. On top of that Russia has blown through its most advanced munitions and has resorted to impressing train loads of lovely looking civilian vehicles to handle their Conservatively they have suffered over 5k KIA (Ukrainian published Russian dead numbers are close to 10k), so there are probably roughly 4x that in wounded. Morale is so great that Russia’s puppet state Belarus had its military basically say, “order us into Ukraine we will shoot our officers); and both countries are sanctioned to the point that procuring new weapons of war becomes exceedingly difficult… Yet, “any day now Russia is going to take Kiev and we need a contingency for Ukrainian government in exile. Stay people! The Russians are this close to figuring their poo poo out and overrunning Ukraine!” I just don’t get it.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:50
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If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500553480548892679?t=IrcU0KwVn5fXEDEI3Kkn-g&s=19 We are worried about our Russian friend, and wondering if they are going to go completely off the world wide web even with their current hook up with proxies and VPN. EDIT: Cinncianti Zoo Sniper pointed out this is only for Public Insitutions, and Kemikalkadet said that the source sensationalizes some. Twincityhacker fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 22:51
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Pooned posted:Are there other instances of a superior invading force losing this much equipment behind enemy lines to an inferior force one week into an invasion? Post WW2 I guess. The Iraqi invasion of Iran, maybe? A brief perusal of the internet doesn't give me any good sources on numbers, but given the nature of the fighting I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:52
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Twincityhacker posted:If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know. Russia is going full North Korea?
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Mar 6, 2022 22:53
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Conspiratiorist posted:I'm very interested in what the air war situation will look like once the fog of war is cleared; losing 12 birds in a 36-hour period largely/exclusively to MANPADS is indicative of the VKS taking enough losses at high altitude that they deemed it non-viable to run ops like that, which in turn means there probably have been quite a few strategic anti-air shoot downs that we just don't know about because those basically disintegrate the targets. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500377046287060994 Elaborating on the air war: those Foxhounds are BVR interceptors, and they weren't part of the initial build-up so the Russians must've brought them up in the last day or two. Further indicates the Ukrainian Air Force may be active and causing air losses at high altitude.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:54
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I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. Maybe this is playing into their plan? Having a long term fight to keep the people of Russia preoccupied and looking at, keep on beating the drum of 'The west is killing our soldiers' and keep their focus off how lovely their government is? What if a few hundred thousand Ukrainians die? Thats the price Putin is willing to pay to keep the eyes off his policy.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:56
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I wonder will we see a reprieve from malicious activity and ransomware? Or that stuff stays connected and its just the population who gets disconnected.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:56
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Yeah, at the start of this war I was genuinely wondering who will be worse off a year from now: the family in Russia or the family in Ukraine. In the short term obviously the family in Ukraine, in the long term though... Personal good news though, my uncle who's been hole up without power or supplies at the family dacha north of Kyiv managed to escape along with the 8+ local neighbourhood cats he was caring for managed to make it to the family in Kyiv. Not exactly the best place to be, but better than being so close to the front lines. His dacha village could have easily been the next Bucha with how close the fighting is. The story of that young lady the russians murdered who was simply trying to bring supplies to a cat rescue place really hit hard. My uncle was personally saved by such a person. He ran out of food and matches and was able to get a mutual aid group drop off matches, food, and a load of cat food to help him.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:56
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The Ghost of Kyiv endures
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Mar 6, 2022 22:56
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Twincityhacker posted:If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know. This only concerns public institutions.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:57
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Cimber posted:I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. If that's their genuine plan, they're really incredibly bad at planning. Transforming their country into North Korea 2.0. wont improve thinks for their government at all.
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Mar 6, 2022 22:59
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Cimber posted:I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. There are other powerful people in Russia besides Putin. None as powerful as he is, of course, but he does need to keep his oligarchs placated to some degree to keep them loyal. Right now he's losing them a lot of money, and they're increasingly getting vocally upset about it.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:01
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Is this new?
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Mar 6, 2022 23:01
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Cimber posted:I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. No. Ifthey had wanted to do that, they would have done what Turkey has done in Syria. Create a militarized zone of limited and controlled forever war. Not get massacred and blown up at every step while flailing around wildly.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:01
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Twincityhacker posted:If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know. Take anything Nexta posts with a huge grain of salt. They sensationalise everything to a huge degree.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:03
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Cimber posted:I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. You can have a long-term politically motivated war without just pulverizing significant amounts of your irreplaceable equipment Baronjutter posted:Yeah, at the start of this war I was genuinely wondering who will be worse off a year from now: the family in Russia or the family in Ukraine. In the short term obviously the family in Ukraine, in the long term though... I think I speak for everyone when I say that we are rooting for cat uncle 
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Mar 6, 2022 23:04
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cant cook creole bream posted:If that's their genuine plan, they're really incredibly bad at planning. Transforming their country into North Korea 2.0. wont improve thinks for their government at all. I can’t imagine people would be happy about this. At least in NK’s case, the people never have had it in the first place. Pain of loss is much stronger than the joy of gain, and all that.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This only concerns public institutions. Really? While it's not GREAT that Russia is doing that much to their people, it's good that we can continue to provide moral support to them and their family during this period. I will continue to hope that Putin and his underlings all literally slip and fall in the bath tomorrow.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:04
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Cimber posted:I'm wondering about this whole 'Russia can't win, this is going to be a long insurgency like Afganistan" narrative going on. no. my guess is the yes men/putin/etc legit though this would be a quick 20 min imperial adventure, in and out.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:05
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This only concerns public institutions. Didn't they test completely disconnecting themselves a year or two ago? That might still be their backup plan.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:06
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steinrokkan posted:No. Ifthey had wanted to do that, they would have done what Turkey has done in Syria. Create a militarized zone of limited and controlled forever war. Not get massacred and blown up at every step while flailing around wildly. How would this work? You mean like a East and West Ukraine?
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Mar 6, 2022 23:07
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Twincityhacker posted:If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know. I implore you all to stop uncritically sharing NEXTA links
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Mar 6, 2022 23:08
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How would this work? You mean like a East and West Ukraine? Probably. Or Donbas + Mariupo + Crimea surrounded by some kind of DMZ. Not a total war.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:09
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Twincityhacker posted:Really? While it's not GREAT that Russia is doing that much to their people, it's good that we can continue to provide moral support to them and their family during this period. Don't get me wrong - they still can shut the internet down if they want, guaranteeing that website of public institutions remain accessible without interruptions. The document just does explicitly speak only about taking (sensible) steps for hardening websites of public institutions. I'm personally sceptical that total internet shutdown is on the table as of yet. I worked for a large Russian company back when they tried to ban Telegram, and that caused meltdown in Russian IT sector since they managed to nuke half of AWS and like a third of Azure and GCP each along the way. I very much doubt they're ready to repeat that once more, even at this hour. Moreover, the documents do make a distinction between public and non-public resources.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:11
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fatherboxx posted:I implore you all to stop uncritically sharing NEXTA links  mobby_6kl posted:Didn't they test completely disconnecting themselves a year or two ago? That might still be their backup plan. Those were training drills last summer, with vague goals and objectives. Best we can tell is that they did ponder about what would happen were they to pull the plug.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:13
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Majorian posted:There are other powerful people in Russia besides Putin. None as powerful as he is, of course, but he does need to keep his oligarchs placated to some degree to keep them loyal. Right now he's losing them a lot of money, and they're increasingly getting vocally upset about it. Of note is Putin has deployed his own muscle as vanguard to the war (VDV, OMON, Kadyrovtsy), which shows ideological commitment and/or confidence in the operation as it weakens his security within Russia's power structure.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
It would be as if a million cam girls cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:17
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Conspiratiorist posted:Of note is Putin has deployed his own muscle as vanguard to the war (VDV, OMON, Kadyrovtsy), which shows ideological commitment and/or confidence in the operation as it weakens his security within Russia's power structure. Confidence in the operation; he deployed militarized police and terror units in the vanguard, not actual soldiers. This is possibly the first time Putin has been in a fight with someone who can go toe to toe with him.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:20
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chglcu posted:It would be as if a million cam girls cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. They already can't get paid with the SWIFT ban.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:23
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fatherboxx posted:I implore you all to stop uncritically sharing NEXTA links Might wanna put anything like that in the OP or something, because it's so difficult to follow this thread.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:26
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Watched a well-regarded military analyst today who made the following claims: - Russia was trying to put pressure on Zelensky to fulfill the Minsk agreement, first by talks. - Then since September it started preparing for a small-scale intervention. - They thought Zelensky was weak in terms of popular support, and could be toppled with a swift strike. - Then Putin misjudged the situation (after practically decades of good calls) and went for a full-scale assault for which the armed forces weren't ready. It's similar to the USSR decisions to get into Afghanistan which was based on assessment that international opposition was weak at that moment. - Russian air force can't afford sufficient training of pilots so they mostly fly two aircraft missions - get up, bomb something, go back. Instead of massive air superiority operations with dozens of aircraft in the air, refueling etc. - Russia has some two more weeks until mud slows down advances even more. - Putin's negotiation position is now weaker than a month ago.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:27
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Twincityhacker posted:If anyone knows a good way to get around this, would be great to know.
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Mar 6, 2022 23:29
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