Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

BigglesSWE posted:

Hypocrisy is useless to point out. The pertinent question is: will Putin want to draw blood against NATO while his army is three-stooges themselves through the Pripyat marshes (or any other circumstance, really)?

The answer is no.

He's probably getting updates from scared yes-men telling him that everything is going well and the Russian army is kicking rear end.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

When you’re logistics and manpowers struggling with a war the solution is to extend it further

I don't entirely understand the thought-process behind this threat.

You've lost at least nearly 900 vehicles, you are being humiliated by multiple videos of farmers towing your expensive military equipment with tractors, and your infantry is being destroyed at nearly every corner. So you're going to....... threaten an extremely well-armed defensive alliance? And this is supposed to be something that makes NATO say "Well, crud. I guess we shouldn't supply weapons then!"?

I'm so baffled as to if they're true believers like Putin, or they're towing the line because they know the alternative is far worse.

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

KitConstantine posted:

Likely this is just more tough talk, but now Russia is apparently going to consider supplying arms to Ukraine via Poland to 'risk drawing NATO into the conflict.'

Proxy wars are only good when Russia does them, obviously.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500883158857916419?s=20&t=JPXoMaYdZrLFDvyOTdy6gw
The Russian MoD posted a tweet earlier saying something similar. They also said that they know that Ukranian planes have been using Romanian and other airfields to refuel, rearm, and repair their planes.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Seth Pecksniff posted:

I don't entirely understand the thought-process behind this threat.

You've lost at least nearly 900 vehicles, you are being humiliated by multiple videos of farmers towing your expensive military equipment with tractors, and your infantry is being destroyed at nearly every corner. So you're going to....... threaten an extremely well-armed defensive alliance? And this is supposed to be something that makes NATO say "Well, crud. I guess we shouldn't supply weapons then!"?

I'm so baffled as to if they're true believers like Putin, or they're towing the line because they know the alternative is far worse.
I imagine it is a certain degree of trying to 'work towards the boss,' even if Putin has not specifically told them to do this. If this did make the UK rethink things, big win for this guy! And if it does nothing, well, he tried, he looked tough, but you can't argue with a (insert local population term here).

e: Also their nuclear threat is looking a lot like the only thing they have left

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!

Rad Russian posted:

He's probably getting updates from scared yes-men telling him that everything is going well and the Russian army is kicking rear end.

Even so, NATO is a hella spicy chilli to swallow, even at the best of times. You know, what with the monstrously huge US armed forces, not to mention the nuclear arsenal.


What I’m saying is, Putin isn’t that flavour of crazy.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


US Assessment update:
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1500885179140874242?s=20&t=6yt8kZXeEuMS8wQ5FXpBnA

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

mlmp08 posted:

Nowhere in this video does anyone say NATO is providing real time aircraft info to Ukraine. That may be happening, but they do not report that in this report, and none of the crew say that.

True, but it’s been reported elsewhere.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Was it discussed itt that Russia is backstabbing Iran in the nuclear agreement negotiations, as Russia wants western sanctions on Russia to be removed? Some believe that the actual reason is to prevent Iran from increasing its oil production and bringing oil prices down, which would hit Russian economy even worse than the sanctions so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-shamkhani-says-tehran-is-evaluating-new-components-nuclear-talks-tweet-2022-03-07/

quote:

VIENNA, March 7 (Reuters) - Iran said on Monday it would not be dictated to by foreign interests, while Russia stuck to its position of linking the revival of a 2015 nuclear deal to Western sanctions over Ukraine by saying the pact cannot discriminate between participants.

After 11 months of intensive talks between Tehran and world powers in Vienna to revive the nuclear agreement, all parties involved in the negotiations had said an agreement was close.

But on Saturday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow wanted a guarantee from the United States that its trade, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran would not be hindered by sanctions imposed since it invaded Ukraine.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Tehran would not allow "any foreign elements to undermine its national interests", Iran's state media reported on Monday, while the foreign ministry said it awaited an explanation from Russia. read more

A few hours later, Lavrov told Amirabdollahian in a phone conversation that the revived nuclear deal should not allow for any discrimination between participants. read more

"It was underscored that the revival of the JCPOA must provide for all participants to have equal rights in relation to the unhindered development of cooperation in all areas, without any discrimination," the Russian foreign ministry quoted Lavrov as saying, using the acronym for the 2015 agreement.

France on Monday warned Russia not to resort to blackmail over efforts to revive the deal.

Oil prices hit their highest since 2008 on Monday amid market supply fears as the United States and European allies considered banning Russian oil imports and prospects for a swift return of Iranian crude to global markets receded.

A French presidency official urged Russia to assess what was at stake in Vienna, "that is to say Iran's return to respecting its obligations under the JCPOA", referring to the 2015 deal by its formal name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

"Because otherwise, in reality, it's just blackmail and not diplomacy," he told reporters.

A European diplomat added: "The Russians are really trying it on and the Iranians aren't happy, although of course not saying too much publicly. We're trying to find a way through."

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




KitConstantine posted:

Here's how Russian academics are excusing this thing during interviews with western outlets. Watch for the face crack at 1:40ish, though he tries to recover
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1498385889692721152?t=iFbrzuokdS4M9XfT_DHCSg&s=19

Warning: will probably make you angry

Nice meltdown, for a piece of poo poo.

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

Nenonen posted:

Was it discussed itt that Russia is backstabbing Iran in the nuclear agreement negotiations, as Russia wants western sanctions on Russia to be removed? Some believe that the actual reason is to prevent Iran from increasing its oil production and bringing oil prices down, which would hit Russian economy even worse than the sanctions so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-shamkhani-says-tehran-is-evaluating-new-components-nuclear-talks-tweet-2022-03-07/

Could you possibly do a deal with a P4+1 if Iran accepts it? I'm not at all an expert on JCPOA procedures but if the rest of the countries are ok with it and Russia's not, it seems to be a bit of a reversal of fortune in some respects. If Iran gets its oil back on the markets, it would count as a clear win for them and the rest of the countries who would be getting a lot of oil.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

They committed 100% of the combat troops to Ukraine, but now it's already less than 100%... :blyat::ukraine:

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Real talk: what exact benefit can Russia even offer now to its client states?

Can't offer economic or commerce incentives like China
Can't offer better or even on par military equipment/ Tech like NATO


"If you don't agree to do what we want 20 poorly trained conscripts will Clowncar pile into a flat tire APC and invade you?"

Like Russia's soft power is just gone.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

TulliusCicero posted:

Real talk: what exact benefit can Russia even offer now to its client states?

Can't offer economic or commerce incentives like China
Can't offer better or even on par military equipment/ Tech like NATO


"If you don't agree to do what we want 20 poorly trained conscripts will Clowncar pile into a flat tire APC and invade you?"

Like Russia's soft power is just gone.

Every single Russian client state is a dictatorship propped up by Russian subsidies and arms. You're a Russian client not because it's attractive, but because you're going to jail at best if you step down.

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Could you possibly do a deal with a P4+1 if Iran accepts it? I'm not at all an expert on JCPOA procedures but if the rest of the countries are ok with it and Russia's not, it seems to be a bit of a reversal of fortune in some respects. If Iran gets its oil back on the markets, it would count as a clear win for them and the rest of the countries who would be getting a lot of oil.

That's is 100% what is going to happen. It's an ad-hoc grouping anyway and I don't think the others give a poo poo about dropping Russia from the agreement if they have the excuse.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

TulliusCicero posted:

Real talk: what exact benefit can Russia even offer now to its client states?

Can't offer economic or commerce incentives like China
Can't offer better or even on par military equipment/ Tech like NATO


"If you don't agree to do what we want 20 poorly trained conscripts will Clowncar pile into a flat tire APC and invade you?"

Like Russia's soft power is just gone.

Again, its absolutely astounding how bad this is going for Russia.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Nenonen posted:

Was it discussed itt that Russia is backstabbing Iran in the nuclear agreement negotiations, as Russia wants western sanctions on Russia to be removed? Some believe that the actual reason is to prevent Iran from increasing its oil production and bringing oil prices down, which would hit Russian economy even worse than the sanctions so far.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-shamkhani-says-tehran-is-evaluating-new-components-nuclear-talks-tweet-2022-03-07/

Nope, I forgot to post that when I was catching up with news.

Speaking of 5D geopolitics chess - US should waive oil sanctions on Iran, as a show of goodwill towards the nuclear deal of course.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

A lighter news update:
The story about knocking down a drone in Kyiv with a jar of pickled cucumbers was just more perfidious Ukrainian misinformation :argh:

It was a jar of pickled tomatoes

Thread and article are pro-clicks, this lady even gets a jab in at her ex husband for ignoring a drone when he saw one
https://twitter.com/kgorchinskaya/status/1500840773822169090?s=20&t=nq_HamGhfc--WF53xVLDJg

d64
Jan 15, 2003

Torrannor posted:

I've read that too, and thought it pretty interesting. But on the other hand, Iran was never as integrated into the Western economic order as Russia is/was until now.

But the general point stands. Iran has a higher GDP/capita in PPP than South Africa for example. It's by no means a rich country, but still has a modicum of wealth despite being under some of the harshest sanctions in the world. And one of the main reasons is them being a petro-states. And it should be noted that their oil and gas industry is targeted by these harsh sanctions as well, while the West until now has explicitly excluded Russia's energy sector from the sanctions regime. And in the blog you linked, one author claimed that the increase in price for Russian gas has more than offset their losses due to nobody buying their oil.

Of course the shock of a much more globally integrated Russia being cut of from much of the global economy could destabilize Russia's economy much more than Iran's economy was disrupted when the Mullahs took over that country. And certain military (and civilian) products will be difficult for Russia to make themselves as long as they are cut off from certain high-tech goods that are currently only produced in the Western aligned world. But as much as I also hope that the sanctions will contribute to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, it wouldn't surprise me if they failed to do so.
Even though I'm the last to claim that anything certainly is the case one way or another in this crisis, I think this is very reasonable thinking. The most optimistic takes, that in short to medium term Russia will be too broke to wage this war, are to me very much unrealistic. They absolutely don't need dollars or euros to pay soldiers or purchase more weapons. Besides, EU will be buying their oil and gas probably for at least some years, and after that, there's still half the world's population outside the sanctions entirely.

The sanctions will hit regular people for sure, and some of them will make the conclusion that the war was a mistake, but I'm not sure if that's a very large part. Many will rather think "Those western counties sure are assholes for sanctioning us this way, using the special operation as a pretext - as if denazifying Ukraine was a bad thing! We will just have to soldier on."

Again, it comes down to how well the people in power stay in line. Putin has little worry that elections or, I think, even unrest would soon be a threat to his power. In autocratic regimes this threat only comes from power structures of the regime itself. Do the people who could have any actual leverage on him think that this war is a terrible idea, and the sanctions ruinous, or do they think Russia must assert itself this way, no matter the cost? Who the hell knows.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



TulliusCicero posted:

Real talk: what exact benefit can Russia even offer now to its client states?

Can't offer economic or commerce incentives like China
Can't offer better or even on par military equipment/ Tech like NATO


"If you don't agree to do what we want 20 poorly trained conscripts will Clowncar pile into a flat tire APC and invade you?"

Like Russia's soft power is just gone.
The immortal joy of sticking it to The West?

Also I do not think many states could put a fight up like Ukraine did, they have legitimately had luck break their way in at least one major way (keeping the Kyiv airport).

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Could you possibly do a deal with a P4+1 if Iran accepts it? I'm not at all an expert on JCPOA procedures but if the rest of the countries are ok with it and Russia's not, it seems to be a bit of a reversal of fortune in some respects. If Iran gets its oil back on the markets, it would count as a clear win for them and the rest of the countries who would be getting a lot of oil.

I feel there's the risk here of USA electing another Trump type in a few years and reversing its policy AGAIN, so it would be beneficial for them to have an ally in the deal to back them up. Unfortunately they only have one lovely ally to appeal to.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Barrel Cactaur posted:

:actually: Technically it would be SARS COVID III. The current model is SARS COVID II.

Pedantry aside bioweapons grade bullshit should be asserted before your illeigetamate war.

More like Tsars Covid

e: poo poo I'm behind

His Divine Shadow fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Mar 7, 2022

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Mr. Apollo posted:

I haven't seen this posted yet, but some Russian mothers confronted a governor from Siberia over their sons being used as "cannon fodder".

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1500769632768118788?s=20&t=IOJYvAsSwPEgHwgES0-pqw

poo poo like this makes me understand why Russians literature is often bleak as gently caress. there will always be some table of old or fat men who will bare faced lie to the people and sacrifice their sons in some fool hard risk that implodes. yeah thats universal BUT its insanely blatant in these cases.

God is high and the czar is far away.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Rad Russian posted:

He's probably getting updates from scared yes-men telling him that everything is going well and the Russian army is kicking rear end.

Yes, this is terrible and almost comical reality of despotic rule. 'Middle management' need to translate reality into reports that will not get them executed or tempt the leader into doing something stupid - but they also need to translate orders going the chain into something that actually works in reality and results in something than can translated back into what the despot wants to happen. Russian middle management clearly failed at both. They managed to deliver reports to Putin that tempted him into making a dumb invasion - good middle managers would have steered him away from ever embarking on that plan. But when it did happen they also failed at replacing the plan with something better. Ideally, they'd have found some irrelevant detail for the despot to micromanage to keep him happy and off their backs. Power hierarchies cannot function without middle management doing these things at multiple levels.

Crap, I've spent too much time in the corporate world.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




PederP posted:

Yes, this is terrible and almost comical reality of despotic rule. 'Middle management' need to translate reality into reports that will not get them executed or tempt the leader into doing something stupid - but they also need to translate orders going the chain into something that actually works in reality and results in something than can translated back into what the despot wants to happen. Russian middle management clearly failed at both. They managed to deliver reports to Putin that tempted him into making a dumb invasion - good middle managers would have steered him away from ever embarking on that plan. But when it did happen they also failed at replacing the plan with something better. Ideally, they'd have found some irrelevant detail for the despot to micromanage to keep him happy and off their backs. Power hierarchies cannot function without middle management doing these things at multiple levels.

Crap, I've spent too much time in the corporate world.

The next step is clearly to get McKinsey run the invasion into Ukraine. Maybe setup an M&A process for Kazakhstan.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

KitConstantine posted:

A lighter news update:
The story about knocking down a drone in Kyiv with a jar of pickled cucumbers was just more perfidious Ukrainian misinformation :argh:

It was a jar of pickled tomatoes

Thread and article are pro-clicks, this lady even gets a jab in at her ex husband for ignoring a drone when he saw one
https://twitter.com/kgorchinskaya/status/1500840773822169090?s=20&t=nq_HamGhfc--WF53xVLDJg

I dunno, I’m waiting for the people at https://waronfakes.com to fact check this claim first before believing it.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

There’s a comedy website for watching Russian rouble exchange rate, which I joke that I worry about the stability of. https://zenrus.ru/

Which is now taking donations for cat food.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Alchenar posted:

Perhaps we should assume that when Russia says 'neutrality' it means what it has always meant in the past by 'neutrality', which is to say 'you are a Russia client state and you can have a bit of autonomy as long as you never ever look West'.

The grand duchy of Finland Ukraine, in personal union with the Tsar President.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

The next step is clearly to get McKinsey run the invasion into Ukraine. Maybe setup an M&A process for Kazakhstan.

It would have to be McKinsey, the other consultant firms are pulling out
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500873502630551562?s=20&t=SXKc3Oby85zW4c-kN_nv4w

Threadkiller Dog
Jun 9, 2010

More conscripts for the PowerPoint mines.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


I want everyone to appreciate the insanity of Deloitte doing something good - even accidentally.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002


because of how these firms operate it basically means the firms in russia are gonna change their logo and name, and that's it

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Mr. Apollo posted:

I haven't seen this posted yet, but some Russian mothers confronted a governor from Siberia over their sons being used as "cannon fodder".

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1500769632768118788?s=20&t=IOJYvAsSwPEgHwgES0-pqw

The callous response to "where is your son" from that fat gently caress is some serious "to the guillotines, no trial" energy christ. This and the OMOH guys' testimony is incredibly damning.

Is there any chance in hell that this lasts much longer or Putin calls up more reservists? I have older teen inlaws and one that just barely finished conscription. Just war or no I don't want them dead in a stupid truck ambush :(

I mean, surely no, but this unmitigated debacle makes me doubt the governments literal sanity. In these conditions you'd see super low drag high speed baddest-of-the bad types still having some humiliating slaughters at Ukraine's hands.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

Seth Pecksniff posted:

I don't entirely understand the thought-process behind this threat.

You've lost at least nearly 900 vehicles, you are being humiliated by multiple videos of farmers towing your expensive military equipment with tractors, and your infantry is being destroyed at nearly every corner. So you're going to....... threaten an extremely well-armed defensive alliance? And this is supposed to be something that makes NATO say "Well, crud. I guess we shouldn't supply weapons then!"?

I'm so baffled as to if they're true believers like Putin, or they're towing the line because they know the alternative is far worse.

In the past this has been enough to get the more tepid members of NATO to get the rest of NATO to acquiesce or drive internal division. Like Germany has reliably made the rest of Europe look the other way when required as long as gas flows.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Threadkiller Dog posted:

More conscripts for the PowerPoint mines.

Directionally Correct Disruption of the Ukraine: Don’t Boil the Ocean, Leverage MECE for Quick Wins

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

freeasinbeer posted:

In the past this has been enough to get the more tepid members of NATO to get the rest of NATO to acquiesce or drive internal division. Like Germany has reliably made the rest of Europe look the other way when required as long as gas flows.
OH! So that's why they made the threat they hoped Poland would stop giving arms to save it's own skin and sow discord in NATO's approach.

Quorum
Sep 24, 2014

REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

Threadkiller Dog posted:

More conscripts for the PowerPoint mines.

The conscripts of the Russian Fourth PowerPoint Division can't hold a candle to the awesome PowerPoint might of the United States Armed Forces:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Quorum posted:

The conscripts of the Russian Fourth PowerPoint Division can't hold a candle to the awesome PowerPoint might of the United States Armed Forces:



loving hell, it is only missing “Battlescape” as an arched WordArt piece separating the 3 buzzword clusters.

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

evilweasel posted:

because of how these firms operate it basically means the firms in russia are gonna change their logo and name, and that's it

Is this actually true though? I had assumed that they were doing what all the other companies were doing and bailing because the Ruble is going into a tailspin.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

Grouchio posted:

OH! So that's why they made the threat they hoped Poland would stop giving arms to save it's own skin and sow discord in NATO's approach.

The general trend of relationship with Russia in Poland is a blinding hatred of a thousand sun's, so the specific country might not work exactly.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




CuddleCryptid posted:

Is this actually true though? I had assumed that they were doing what all the other companies were doing and bailing because the Ruble is going into a tailspin.

Big 4 firms internationally are not even franchises, it’s like a mutual agreement that they may use the name. It’s perfectly normal, e.g., for KPMG Poland to gently caress over KPMG Germany in a deal they share. KPMG Russia has nowhere to run (excluding senior management), they’re a Russian company made in Russia.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5