COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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How are u: May 19, 2005; by Azathoth

Reading about the really sad Omi surge in Hong Kong made me curious about how the mainland is doing (been a little distracted by the war and all that) and I found this interesting article from 2 weeks ago.

The End Game of China�s Zero-Covid Policy Nightmare
As most of the world decides to live with the virus, China is doubling down on a strategy to crush it. But at what cost?

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-zero-covid-vaccines

quote:

On December 22, 2021, the entire western Chinese city of Xi�an was put into lockdown. �It was all of a sudden,� says Fan, a Xi�An native and university student in his early twenties who didn�t give his full name, due to privacy concerns. �The university wouldn�t let us go outside of the dorms. Our freedom was restricted, and they stopped all our classes. I couldn�t leave and I couldn�t go home. We were stuck.� Xi�an, a city of 13 million people, spent the end of December 2021 and much of January 2022 in one of China�s most severe lockdowns. The trigger? A handful of cases of Covid-19.

Since the start of the pandemic, China has clung to a zero-Covid strategy consisting of strict containment measures that have served the nation remarkably well. China�s official death toll has remained under 5,000, and its total reported caseload of 124,900 is significantly lower than the 78 million cases in the United States or the 18.4 million in the United Kingdom. Aside from travel disruptions, life has been largely normal�and China�s success at containing the virus has become a source of national pride.

Yet the emergence of more infectious variants, like Omicron, is changing the calculus. While other countries are responding to Covid�s evolution by moving toward a strategy of living with the virus, China continues to rely on some of its harshest restrictions since the outbreak began. Surrounding the Lunar New Year and Winter Olympics, small but regular outbreaks of the Omicron and Delta variants have left Chinese authorities scrambling. After Beijing failed to trace its first local Omicron infection in January, its Center for Disease Control and Prevention pointed the finger at a mail delivery from Canada, prompting various cities to frantically disinfect international mail and test package recipients.

After two years of being a global Covid success story, China now appears to be struggling. In the Xi�an lockdown, national outrage has followed grocery shortages and the case of a woman losing her unborn baby in her eighth month of pregnancy after being denied medical attention for hours.

In China and abroad, people have started to question the validity of the government�s zero-tolerance approach. �I understand many are still afraid of the virus and willing to bear the burden [of zero-Covid], but I feel we�ve reached a certain point,� says Fan, whose parents had to quarantine for two weeks at their own expense after meeting a friend who visited a grocery store linked to a single Covid case. �It has a huge impact on us.� So why is the government insisting on pursuing a zero-tolerance strategy? The official line is that abandoning it would lead to a devastating outbreak that would overwhelm the health care system and disrupt social stability. And experts say this is valid�to a certain degree. But the situation is far from straightforward.

One key challenge is that Chinese vaccines are proving to be less effective. While approximately 87 percent of China�s total population is vaccinated, the majority received doses of the country�s homegrown Sinovac and Sinopharm inactivated-virus vaccines, which use a dead version of the virus to expose the body�s immune system to it. About one-third of the population has also received inactivated-virus booster shots.

In December, researchers from Hong Kong found that two doses of Sinovac failed to produce enough antibodies to fight Omicron. Pfizer and Moderna�s vaccines, while less effective against Omicron than previous strains, still provide substantial protection�especially after three doses. And even before the variants arrived, China�s vaccines were still some way behind the West�s mRNA jabs. The numbers are stark: Sinovac is 51 percent effective in preventing symptomatic Covid infection. Pfizer is 95 percent effective. China has yet to approve Pfizer and Moderna�s shots for use on the mainland, although Shanghai-based Fosun Pharmaceuticals was given the right to distribute Pfizer�s vaccine to Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

That issue of vaccine effectiveness is compounded by the uneven spread of coverage throughout China. Much of the country�s elderly population also remains unvaccinated and vulnerable�due to the government's decision to delay vaccinating seniors in order to prioritize those in high-risk jobs and to ensure the vaccine was safe for older people. (Chinese vaccine makers reportedly included fewer elderly people in final-stage trials than did those in the West.) Although China opened up vaccinations for seniors aged 60 and above in March, health authorities proceeded cautiously and vaccine hesitancy remains high�nearly nine months after China started offering Covid-19 vaccines to people aged 60 and above, about 50 million in this age group remain unvaccinated. For those aged 80 or older, vaccination rates range from slightly above 40 percent to below 30 percent in some areas, a National Health Commission official told state broadcaster CCTV in December.

Zhang Wenhong, an infectious disease expert who has become the country�s most trusted source on the pandemic, claimed earlier this month that the mortality rate among the elderly has remained high even after three doses. China has an estimated 4.37 ICU beds per 100,000 people, much lower than that of developed countries like the US and Germany, which have 34.7 and 29.2 ICU beds per 100,000 people, respectively.

�The initial rationale of having a zero-Covid strategy was to buy time so that a sufficient percentage of the population is vaccinated to reach herd immunity,� says Yanzhong Huang, senior global health fellow at Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based think tank. �But Chinese vaccines are not that effective in preventing infections. They cannot tolerate even a small number of infections.�

What has for so long been a point of national pride is now something of a trap. With ineffective vaccines and low protection from previous infections, a large-scale Covid outbreak could threaten vulnerable communities and overwhelm China�s health care system. To address this threat, China is adapting. Responding to the Delta variant in August, the government moved from its initial �zero-Covid� policy of literally pursuing zero cases to its current �dynamic zero-Covid� strategy, which seeks to instead swiftly crack down on outbreaks when they inevitably occur.

That shift in strategy doesn�t necessarily mean a loosening of restrictions. In the short run, the state will continue enforcing strict measures, like snap lockdowns, because unlike many countries�where lockdowns have become politically and economically unfeasible�China is both able to do so and prepared to pay the cost, according to Ben Cowling, chair of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. And in purely economic terms, the policy isn�t too much of a drag on China. A recent report by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group found that the dynamic zero-Covid approach had shaved just 2.6 percent off the Chinese economy in terms of gross domestic product. �China�s been really good at cracking down and getting to zero,� says Cowling. �It�s very disruptive and involves lockdowns, mass testing, and isolation of cases, but that�s affecting a minority of people. If they can limit the spread, I�d say it�s an optimal strategy.�

As with the rest of the world, China is seeking to buy time so it can use science to beat back the virus�but on its own terms. In the coming months, officials are pinning their hopes on developing better, homegrown mRNA vaccines to target Omicron and other variants. The current mRNA frontrunner, ARCoV, completed its first-stage clinical trials (on 120 people between the ages of 18 and 59) and was found to have an efficacy rate of 80 to 95 percent, which is on par with Pfizer and Moderna�s vaccines.

And ARCoV might even have a logistical advantage. Unlike Pfizer and Moderna, which are challenging to distribute and store, this mRNA vaccine can be kept for six months at a normal refrigerator temperature of between 2 and 8 degrees Celsius. Pfizer and Moderna, by comparison, have to be kept at minus 70 degrees Celsius and minus 20 degrees Celsius, respectively. Experts predict that at least one Chinese mRNA vaccine could be launched for public use by the end of the year and an Omicron-targeting vaccine may be ready in two to six months� time.

Yet scientists like Dongyan Jin, a biomedical professor at the University of Hong Kong, argue that it is �completely unwise� to wait for the development of homegrown vaccines instead of simply approving Pfizer or Moderna. Not only will waiting stall the process of building higher immunity in the population, but there�s also no guarantee that homegrown vaccines will be effective. Currently being tested in a global Phase 3 clinical trial, ARCoV recently exhibited a sharp drop in neutralizing antibodies against Omicron�although a third booster shot did trigger antibody activity in animal tests.

�There is no scientific reason for not approving them,� says Jin of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, adding that the Chinese government has made similar mistakes in the past. Jin cites the delayed approval of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines against cervical cancer, which is the third most common cancer among women in China aged 15 to 44 and the sixth most frequent among women overall, as one such example. Although the first HPV vaccine was licensed by the US in 2006 and then by 80 more countries a year later, foreign HPV vaccines were only approved in China from 2016 to 2018, due to regulatory delays (China�s food and drug administration required repeated clinical trials to ensure safety and effectiveness prior to approval). China still suffers from a supply shortage of HPV vaccines, even after the country launched its first locally produced HPV vaccine in 2020.

In the fight against Covid, delays could prove even more costly. Even if homegrown vaccines are successfully developed, China would still need to make and administer them�though it only took 10 months to jab 1 billion people against Covid back in 2021. That�s quick, but Huang argues it�s unlikely to be quick enough. �By the time China achieves a high vaccination rate, the Omicron-driven wave might already be in retreat,� he says. �We are likely going to see the emergence and dominance of new variants.�

So why doesn�t China approve Western vaccines? As well as citing the need to protect the domestic market, Calvin Ho, a bioethicist at the University of Hong Kong, says the move would also be costly and could trigger a global supply crisis. �Even if they approved Pfizer, it�s going to take some time to vaccinate everyone. Leaving aside the financial cost, there would be implications of global justice. If China approves it and is prepared to pay, what would be the implications for other countries that cannot afford it?� Ho says. �Realistically speaking, the way forward may be to hope there will be a more effective vaccine developed in the mainland or Hong Kong.�

China�s stance may be shifting. In a surprise move, the country this week conditionally approved Pfizer�s Paxlovid pill�even though the country is developing its own antiviral drugs and treatments. Earlier this month, an antiviral drug called Favilavir reportedly received approval to move forward with clinical trials investigating its possible use as a treatment against Covid, and the state�s drug authority granted emergency approval for a monoclonal antibody treatment in December. But the latter needs to be administered through injections, which Huang says would still put a burden on the health care system, since patients would need to go to the hospital.

And even if China can develop its own vaccines and treatments, that doesn�t mean it will abandon its dynamic Covid-zero strategy, officials have said. �As long as China has no new measures to prevent the imported strains of the coronavirus from triggering large-scale transmission and no effective way to contain the epidemic, the country will not adjust its dynamic zero-tolerance policy,� Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told state media outfit Global Times in early February. �Relying on vaccines cannot contain Covid-19.�

Not everyone agrees a large-scale outbreak would be as disastrous as the state makes it out to be. In fact, there are many steps China can take to mitigate the damage done to vulnerable communities and the health care system as it eases out of a zero-tolerance strategy, experts argue. Such measures include introducing more effective vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, making more accessible antivirals available for use, and educating the public on the health risks posed by the virus. �If you have these measures in place, you can significantly reduce the risk to make it manageable,� Huang says. The cost of maintaining zero-tolerance, he adds, will only increase over time. �You have to give up that strategy. You can�t expect the virus to disappear.�

But for all the science, it's impossible to untangle China�s Covid response from politics. In the mainland, discussions around China�s zero-tolerance strategy and homegrown vaccines have become highly politicized. Scientists advocating for a less strict approach have been attacked on social media, and in January one lawmaker in Hong Kong said that health experts who promote the idea of �living with Covid� should be seen as violating national security. �They see this [strategy] as a matter of national pride,� says Jin. �Many Chinese people are proud.� Chinese state media has played a significant role, too, he adds, by creating a partially false narrative around how the rest of the world is suffering.

Pandemic restrictions have also allowed the state to tighten its control over people in China, with security experts saying the virus has become a pretext for the government to accelerate mass surveillance and clamp down on freedom of speech. In February 2020, the government in Hangzhou introduced the mandatory Alipay Health Code app that tells people whether they should be quarantined or allowed into certain public spaces. The app, which appears to share information with the police, is now used across China and has become a normalized part of daily life.

For now, scientists say China will likely only shift away from a zero-tolerance strategy when the population is sufficiently vaccinated with an effective, homegrown, Omicron-targeted vaccine. Another scenario is that the virus evolves into a form mild enough to allow the country to open up without many casualties�a scenario that is unpredictable, to say the least.

In the short term, it is unlikely China would risk any such test before the Communist Party National Congress, which is set for this fall. The Congress, a major political event ushering in top-level leadership changes that is held every five years, will likely see president Xi Jinping announce his intention to seek an unprecedented third term in office. As with the rest of the world, the only way for China to end the pandemic is to rely on science. But there's a lot of politics involved too.

I've been watching China's zero covid policy with great interest for years now, and it's quite interesting to see how it goes as we shift into this post-Omi phase of the global pandemic.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 18:18

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# ? May 25, 2024 21:00

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

freebooter posted:

I'm not sure what point you think you're making here. 70% of Hong Kongers over the age of 80 are unvaccinated. That has sadly predictable results when a COVID wave occurs.

I am making the point that there is zero causal link between covid zero policies and this statistic. How could I be any clearer? You don't appear to have an argument as to why this correlation is caused by covid zero policies.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 19:35

misguided rage: Jun 15, 2010; God I fucking love Diablo 3 gold, it even paid for this shitty title

I don't think that was their argument. The lack of a corresponding vaccine push is the problem, not the concept of COVID zero itself.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 19:40

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

misguided rage posted:

I don't think that was their argument. The lack of a corresponding vaccine push is the problem, not the concept of COVID zero itself.

It certainly read like their point was that they opted for zero covid due to success on the mainland instead of vaccination pushes. The vaccine push was, ultimately, up to the regional authority there.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 19:49

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Judakel posted:

It certainly read like their point was that they opted for zero covid due to success on the mainland instead of vaccination pushes.

Not really, no.

freebooter posted:

Hong Kong is what happens if you cling doggedly to a COVID-zero policy without doing enough to stick-and-carrot the populace into getting vaccinated.

The operative word here is "without", which specifically implies that doing COVID-zero with pressure to vaccinate is an option. You seem to be reacting as if the statement read "Hong Kong is what happens if you cling doggedly to a COVID-zero policy instead of doing enough to stick-and-carrot the populace into getting vaccinated."

# ? Mar 7, 2022 22:52

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

How are u posted:

Reading about the really sad Omi surge in Hong Kong made me curious about how the mainland is doing (been a little distracted by the war and all that) and I found this interesting article from 2 weeks ago.

The End Game of China�s Zero-Covid Policy Nightmare
As most of the world decides to live with the virus, China is doubling down on a strategy to crush it. But at what cost?

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-zero-covid-vaccines

I've been watching China's zero covid policy with great interest for years now, and it's quite interesting to see how it goes as we shift into this post-Omi phase of the global pandemic.

Cool. Any thoughts about it?

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:03

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1500946917102129155

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:11

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

the holy poopacy posted:

Not really, no.

The operative word here is "without", which specifically implies that doing COVID-zero with pressure to vaccinate is an option. You seem to be reacting as if the statement read "Hong Kong is what happens if you cling doggedly to a COVID-zero policy instead of doing enough to stick-and-carrot the populace into getting vaccinated."

Yes, exactly, although I've also just realised this is the same guy who insisted the US could accomplish zero-COVID by conscripting people into neighbourhood watch patrols, so, lol nvm

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:11

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

the holy poopacy posted:

Not really, no.

The operative word here is "without", which specifically implies that doing COVID-zero with pressure to vaccinate is an option. You seem to be reacting as if the statement read "Hong Kong is what happens if you cling doggedly to a COVID-zero policy instead of doing enough to stick-and-carrot the populace into getting vaccinated."

I disagree. Note usage of the term doggedly, intended to frame it as an either or choice and product of stubbornness. There have been pushes in Hong Kong to vaccinate people, by the way. As recently as January: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/hong-kong-vaccine-surge-sees-majority-pick-sinovac-over-biontech

freebooter posted:

Yes, exactly, although I've also just realised this is the same guy who insisted the US could accomplish zero-COVID by conscripting people into neighbourhood watch patrols, so, lol nvm

Not just the US, but Australia, too. You guys did pretty badly, so I wouldn't laugh. Remember, the central problem that Celestial Scribe presented was that you couldn't even stay in your own homes to stop the spread. There's really only one solution to that.

Judakel fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Mar 7, 2022

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:16

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Judakel posted:

I disagree. Note usage of the term doggedly, intended to frame it as an either or choice and product of stubbornness. There have been pushes in Hong Kong to vaccinate people, by the way. As recently as January: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/hong-kong-vaccine-surge-sees-majority-pick-sinovac-over-biontech

I suppose you're free to disagree with the plain meanings of English words if you choose to, but chartreuse velvet octagonal dolphins blithely serendipity.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:22

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

Regardless of zero COVID, having a year to vaccinate the most vulnerable people and not being able to do it is a monumental fuckup.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:28

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

the holy poopacy posted:

I suppose you're free to disagree with the plain meanings of English words if you choose to, but chartreuse velvet octagonal dolphins blithely serendipity.

Sad to see someone not recognize modifiers and how they affect intent and meaning.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:31

deoju: Jul 11, 2004; All the pieces matter.; Nap Ghost

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1500946917102129155

Thanks for the heads up.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:45

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

I have to buy tests myself but I pay like �12,50 for a 5-pack so it's not too bad.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 23:47

Alctel: Jan 16, 2004; I love snails

Judakel posted:

Sad to see someone not recognize modifiers and how they affect intent and meaning.

Modifiers like 'without'

# ? Mar 8, 2022 00:55

Tiny Timbs: Sep 6, 2008

Just say �I misread it, sorry� instead of doing a weird Trumpy double-down

# ? Mar 8, 2022 01:03

Dick Trauma: Nov 30, 2007; God damn it, you've got to be kind.

Here at work I'm the only one left who wears a mask. Find out this afternoon that someone I spent a few minutes talking to probably has COVID because his kid just tested positive.

There's a good reason I don't think this pandemic is over.

EDIT: As soon as I posted this a different guy who has had COVID at least once came to my office maskless and coughing because he needed help with his PC.

Dick Trauma fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Mar 8, 2022

# ? Mar 8, 2022 01:20

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

Not just the US, but Australia, too. You guys did pretty badly, so I wouldn't laugh.

If anything is laughable it's the notion that Australia has done "badly" at all, let alone that it can be mentioned in the same breath as the US

# ? Mar 8, 2022 03:35

cant cook creole bream: Aug 15, 2011; I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

Alctel posted:

Modifiers like 'without'

It's a complicated word. How can it just have an out? Owning the concept of out seems massively powerful. And why isn't there a withoutout?

# ? Mar 8, 2022 09:33

Marmaduke!: May 19, 2009; Why would it do that!?

Dick Trauma posted:

EDIT: As soon as I posted this a different guy who has had COVID at least once came to my office maskless and coughing because he needed help with his PC.

Did he reassure you with "Don't worry I've already had covid"?

# ? Mar 8, 2022 11:48

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Denmark - 7 March 2022

Table 1. Actual and Reported Denmark COVID Cases reported per day

pre:

	Actual	Reported	New	Total
Date	Cases	Cases	Reinf.	Hosp.	Hosp.	ICU		Vent		Dead
==============================================================================================
Mar 07	   ---	12,225	  584	  220	1,644	37 (+0)		 15 (-1)	37
Mar 06	10,094	10,827	  526	  245	1,556	37 (+2)		 16 (-3)	38
Mar 05	10,926	
Mar 04	13,382	
Mar 03	15,764	
Mar 02	17,336
Mar 01	18,286	
Feb 28	21,473	
Feb 27	16,858	
Feb 26	13,850	
Feb 25	16.592	
Feb 24	20,597	
Feb 23	23,393	29,040	1,567	  369	1,721	36 (+2)		12 (+0)		47
Feb 22	27,358	30,480	1,707	  473	1,759	34(-10)		12 (-5)		34
Feb 21	33,163	28,883	1,477	  397	1,717	44 (+4)		17 (-1)		29
Feb 20	29,683	25,690	1,381	  241	1,587	40 (+3)		18 (+0)		34
Feb 19	24,928	33,304	1,837	  399	1,546	37 (+4)		18 (-1)		28
Feb 18	26,741	38,086	1,615	  459	1,615	33 (+2)		19 (+5)		43
Feb 17	34,062	40,600	2,158	  480	1,604	31 (+0)		14 (+0)		44
Feb 16	36,055	42,948	2,407	  459	1,498	31 (+0)		14 (+1)		24
Feb 15	42,006	42,978	2,200	  464	1,523	31 (+6)		13 (+2)		30
Feb 14	45,208	29,474	1,461	  333	1,465	25 (+0)		11 (+3)		41
Feb 13	35,589	38,323	2,039	  314	1,356	25 (-5)		 8 (-1)		30
Feb 12	32,624	44,350	2,259	  427	1,316	30 (-2)		 9 (+0)		37
Feb 11	38,889	48,170	2,968	  421	1,379	32 (-1)		 9 (+1)		24
Feb 10	45,111	53,747	3,205	  415	1,354	33 (-1)		12 (+1)		29
Feb 09	50,253	55,120	3,262	  451	1,332	34 (-5)		11 (-4)		21
Feb 08	55,575	49,798	2,759	  419	1,315	39 (+8)		15 (+3)		18
Feb 07	57,350	34,849	1,836	  314	1,294	31 (-3)		12 (+0)		28
Feb 06	42,234	36,512	1,841	  307	1,203	34 (+3)		12 (+0)		18
Feb 05	33,604	39,190	2,061	  370	1,138	31 (-2)		12 (-1)		35
Feb 04	37,192	40.179	2,241	  376	1,156	33 (+6)		13 (+1)		17
Feb 03	39,792	44,225	2,513	  365	1,116	27 (+1)		12 (-4)		21
Feb 02	40,476	55,001	2,992	  343	1,092	26 (-2)		16 (+2)		20
Feb 01	46,118	45,366	2,515	  337	1,070	28 (-4)		14 (-1)		15
Jan 31	56,397	29,084	1,478	  255	1,028	32 (+1)		15 (+0)		17
Jan 30	34,881	36,196	2,055	  231	  948	31 (-4)		15 (-4)		21
Jan 29	29,907	41,083	2,332	  271	  922	35 (+2)		19 (+0)		17
Jan 28	38,122	53,655	3,263	  305	  967	33 (-4)		19 (-3)		26
Jan 27	39,067	51,033	3,119	  318	  955	37 (-3)		22 (-3)		18
Jan 26	41,695	46,747	3,028	  298	  938	40 (-4)		25 (-3)		14
Jan 25	48,640	43,734	2,856	  318	  918	44 (+1)		28 (-1)		14
Jan 24	53,663	40,348	2,501	  242	  894	43 (+1)		29 (+2)		13
Jan 23	38,017	42,018	2,755	  215	  813	42 (-3)		27 (-1)		12
Jan 22	34,713	36,120	2,285	  220	  781	45 (+1)		28 (-1)		25
Jan 21	37,409	46,831	3,160	  244	  813	44 (-5)		29 (+1)		21
Jan 20	37,420	40,626	2,639	  232	  825	49 (-1)		28 (-2)		15
Jan 19	37,595	38,759	2,285	  248	  821	50 (+1)		30 (+1)		16
Jan 18	40,303	33,493	2,002	  264	  810	49 (-3)		29 (-8)		14
Jan 17	41,486	28,780	1,815	  203	  802	52 (-7)		37 (-4)		11
Jan 16	28,179	26,169	1,614	  159	  734	59 (+0)		41 (+1)		16 
Jan 15	25,188	25,034	1,644	  202	  711	59 (-1)		40 (+4)		16
Jan 14	25,883	23,614	1,519	  215	  757	60 (-4)		36 (-2)		15
Jan 13	23,776	25,751	1,822	  194	  755	64 (-9)		38 (-8)		20
Jan 12	22,575	24,343	1,614	  215	  751	73 (+0)		46 (+0)		25
Jan 11	22,656	22,936	1,459	  181	  754	73 (-1)		46 (-1)		14
Jan 10	23,244	14,414	  941	  156	  777	74 (-3)		47 (-3)		 9 
Jan 09	16,330	19,248	1,327	  126	  723	77 (-1) 	50 (-2) 	14 
Jan 08	13,573	12,588	  984	  161	  730	78 (+0) 	52 (-1) 	28 
Jan 07	14,434	18,261	1,482	  186	  755	78 (-4) 	53 (+4) 	10  
Jan 06	15,417	25,995	2,027	  161	  756	82 (+2) 	47 (-2) 	11  
Jan 05	17,577	28,283	2,083	  204	  784	80 (+3) 	49 (+2) 	15
Jan 04	23,698	23,372	1,701	  229	  792	77 (+4) 	47 (+1) 	15
Jan 03*	25,617	 8,801	  532	  169	  770	73 (-3) 	46 (-4) 	 5
Jan 02  19,906 	 7,550	  404	  163	  709	76 (+3) 	50 (+1) 	15
Jan 01   8,631	20,885	1,049	  139	  647	73 (+0) 	49 (+0) 	 5
Dec 31   9,728	17,605	1,090	  177	  641	73 (-2) 	49 (-1) 	11
Dec 30  19,927	21,403	1,123	  178	  665	75 (-2) 	50 (-2) 	 9
Dec 29  17,245	23,228	1,205	  173	  675	77 (+6) 	52 (+2) 	16
Dec 28  21,955	13,000	  670	  177	  666	71 (+1) 	50 (+4) 	14
Dec 27  22,616	16,164	  639	  115	  608	70 (-1) 	46 (-2) 	 7
Dec 26  10,965	14,844	  644	  123	  579	71 (-2) 	43 (+1) 	13
Dec 25   7,853	10,027	  463	   86	  522	73 (-1) 	44 (+5) 	10
Dec 24   7,054	11,229	  527	  134	  509	74 (+2) 	39 (+1) 	14
Dec 23  12,605	12,487	  613	  158	  541	72 (+6) 	38 (+1)		15
Dec 22  11,591	13,386	  531	  126	  524	66 (-1) 	37 (+2)		14 
Dec 21  13,011	13,558	  501	  121	  526	67 (+1) 	35 (+2)		17
Dec 20  13,288	10,082	  ---	   85	  581	66 (+3) 	33 (-2)		 8
Dec 19  10,231 	 8,212
Dec 18  10,049 	 8,594
Dec 17  10.614	11,194
Dec 16  10,171 	 9,999
Dec 15  10,775 	 8,773	  ---	   96	  508	66 (+0)		43 (-3)		 9
Dec 13  10,294 	 7,799	  ---	   61	  480	64 (-1)		42 (+0)		 9
Dec 12   6,986 	 5,989	  ---	   82	  468	65 (+5)		42 (+6)	 	 9
Dec 08   6,560 	 6,629	  ---	   72	  461	66 (-1)		38 (-1)		 7
Dec 01   4,464 	 5,120	  ---	   88	  439	35 (+1)		35 (+1)		14

Table 2: ICU Bed Usage, Weekly (reported every 2 weeks)

pre:

Date      		Bed Availability
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
31 January  	313 ICU beds, 27 COVID, 75 available
24 January  	322 ICU beds, 38 COVID, 72 available
17 January  	328 ICU beds, 54 COVID, 66 available
10 January  	331 ICU beds, 72 COVID, 29 available
03 January  	331 ICU beds, 76 COVID, 32 available
27 December	316 ICU beds, 71 COVID, 62 available 
20 December 	317 ICU beds, 60 COVID, 59 available
13 December 	319 ICU beds, 64 COVID, 39 available
06 December 	310 ICU beds, 67 COVID, 10 available <-- squeaky bum time here
29 November	318 ICU beds, 61 COVID, 25 available

Sourcea:
https://www.rkkp.dk/kvalitetsdatabaser/databaser/dansk-intensiv-database/resultater/
https://covid19.ssi.dk/overvagningsdata/download-fil-med-overvaagningdata
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/242ec2acc014456295189631586f1d26
https://covid19.ssi.dk/virusvarianter/delta-pcr

# ? Mar 8, 2022 11:59

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Alctel posted:

Modifiers like 'without'

Modifiers like doggedly from someone who has a history of being anti-covid zero. That is relevant in the reading. Zero reason to mention covid-zero policy, except for the implication that both things are somehow linked and to use the opportunity to slam it.

freebooter posted:

If anything is laughable it's the notion that Australia has done "badly" at all, let alone that it can be mentioned in the same breath as the US

Australia has done very badly. The fact that it has not done as badly as the US is akin to saying you've shot your left leg off, but at least you still have one left and a long life. Had it adopted a covid zero policy in any meaningful sense, it wouldn't have taxed it's hospitals and lost as many people as it has. Now it joins America in living with an ever-changing virus that can overwhelm medical systems incredibly fast.

Judakel fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Mar 8, 2022

# ? Mar 8, 2022 17:32

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

One week after Mardi Gras, let's check in on Orleans Parish.

Slight uptick to 40 cases rolling 7-day average from a steady ~25 or so for the 5 days before.

Overall though, doesn't seem like we had a superspreader Mardi Gras.

Although anecdotally there are a ton of people on New Orleans Twitter who have popped positive on home tests and who knows if that stuff is actually getting counted.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 18:37

JazzFlight: Apr 29, 2006; Oooooooooooh!

Yeah, like I still wear my double-mask at work and all, but I think I can finally metaphorically peek my head out, since my county has been the lowest 7-day average it's been since like late last summer.
Like it went from the worst spike 7-day average of 6,200 on Jan 5th and now it's 109.
I know this thread is all about extreme vigilance, but are we kinda goodish (until another possible variant comes about)?

JazzFlight fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Mar 8, 2022

# ? Mar 8, 2022 19:04

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Judakel posted:

Australia has done very badly. The fact that it has not done as badly as the US is akin to saying you've shot your left leg off, but at least you still have one left and a long life. Had it adopted a covid zero policy in any meaningful sense, it wouldn't have taxed it's hospitals and lost as many people as it has. Now it joins America in living with an ever-changing virus that can overwhelm medical systems incredibly fast.

Ah yes, the famously bad Covid response of Australia.

if you're having trouble finding their line, for most of the chart it overlaps with zero and China.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 19:18

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Jaxyon posted:

Ah yes, the famously bad Covid response of Australia.

if you're having trouble finding their line, for most of the chart it overlaps with zero and China.

What's that big bump there at the end? Could that be what we were talking about? Omicron? I think so.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 21:30

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Judakel posted:

What's that big bump there at the end? Could that be what we were talking about? Omicron? I think so.

Succumbing to an extremely infectious variant after years of doing well doesn't mean they're did bad.

SK has also had a very good response but is starting to go upwards sharply.

I definitely saw the bump, did you not see the looooong flat line?

# ? Mar 8, 2022 21:57

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Jaxyon posted:

Succumbing to an extremely infectious variant after years of doing well doesn't mean they're did bad.

SK has also had a very good response but is starting to go upwards sharply.

I definitely saw the bump, did you not see the looooong flat line?

I wish they were still covid free. My point back then and my point now is that Australia would benefit from covid-zero policies, that it is worth it, and that their covid policies were less-than-zero all along. As I said back then, and can empirically conclude now, covid-zero policy works even against omicron. China would be overwhelmed by now otherwise.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 22:02

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

Modifiers like doggedly from someone who has a history of being anti-covid zero.

I was extremely pro-zero-COVID up until Delta (let alone Omicron) made it impossible. When the facts change, I change my opinions. Unlike you I also have actual experience of living in a jurisdiction attempting zero-COVID.

Judakel posted:

I wish they were still covid free. My point back then and my point now is that Australia would benefit from covid-zero policies, that it is worth it, and that their covid policies were less-than-zero all along. As I said back then, and can empirically conclude now, covid-zero policy works even against omicron. China would be overwhelmed by now otherwise.

Australia thanks you for your sage advice. Feel free to fly on down to Melbourne any time now that the borders are open, walk into a pub and announce to the 95% vaccinated locals that in your considered opinion we should all be put back under hard lockdown.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 23:24

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Judakel posted:

I wish they were still covid free. My point back then and my point now is that Australia would benefit from covid-zero policies, that it is worth it, and that their covid policies were less-than-zero all along. As I said back then, and can empirically conclude now, covid-zero policy works even against omicron. China would be overwhelmed by now otherwise.

Yes that's wonderful that you feel like that, but this doesn't give you the space to call Australia's response bad when they've been some of the best in the world.

# ? Mar 8, 2022 23:26

Charles 2 of Spain: Nov 7, 2017

freebooter posted:

Australia thanks you for your sage advice. Feel free to fly on down to Melbourne any time now that the borders are open, walk into a pub and announce to the 95% vaccinated locals that in your considered opinion we should all be put back under hard lockdown.

Triple vaccinated people have first priority for joining the neighbourhood patrols.

# ? Mar 9, 2022 00:15

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

freebooter posted:

I was extremely pro-zero-COVID up until Delta (let alone Omicron) made it impossible. When the facts change, I change my opinions. Unlike you I also have actual experience of living in a jurisdiction attempting zero-COVID.

Australia thanks you for your sage advice. Feel free to fly on down to Melbourne any time now that the borders are open, walk into a pub and announce to the 95% vaccinated locals that in your considered opinion we should all be put back under hard lockdown.

It's clearly not impossible, because China did it. The facts didn't change. The effort did. Ah yes, the vaccinated locals spreading a variant with vaccine avoidance. A playground for mutations that render that talking point useless. Why were your hospitals overwhelmed?

Jaxyon posted:

Yes that's wonderful that you feel like that, but this doesn't give you the space to call Australia's response bad when they've been some of the best in the world.

It is pretty obvious, given their attitude towards Delta and Omicron, that they simply got lucky with geography and it had little to do with a disciplined response.

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

Triple vaccinated people have first priority for joining the neighbourhood patrols.

After all, China is in chaos and they use a similar system. Oh wait, it is pretty much the only country not ravaged by it by now.

# ? Mar 9, 2022 18:15

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Judakel posted:

It is pretty obvious, given their attitude towards Delta and Omicron, that they simply got lucky with geography and it had little to do with a disciplined response.

No it isn't at all.

But by all means, expand on this thought so I can at least understand what you mean. Water stops covid?

# ? Mar 9, 2022 19:24

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

It's clearly not impossible, because China did it.

As has been explained to you countless times, China is a totalitarian superpower, it can marshal resources other countries can't.

It's also still plunging tens millions of people at a time into rolling lockdowns at the drop of a hat. That's what COVID-zero policy means: living with a Damocles sword of total disruption to people's lives, relationships, educations and businesses, which can and does come down on the reg. That was worth doing to save tens of thousands of lives. It is no longer worth doing when 95% of the population is vaccinated against death and severe disease.

quote:

It is pretty obvious, given their attitude towards Delta and Omicron, that they simply got lucky with geography and it had little to do with a disciplined response.

It is pretty obvious that, unless you're a deliberate troll, you're talking out your rear end and you have absolutely no idea what Australia's COVID-zero policies (or New Zealand's, or Vietnam's, or Thailand's) ever entailed. All these countries just developed a bad "attitude," the #1 Trick Doctors Hate to defeating COVID.

# ? Mar 9, 2022 23:57

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

Denmark - 10 March 2022

I am ending this series of updates. We're still at 10,000 cases a day, and 30-40 deaths. But it's absolutely not news here in DK any more.

Should something major happen I may resurrect this format but otherwise I hope it helped somehow. I found it useful to focus my thinking and maybe not all of it was ignorant speculation, even if most of it was.

Thanks.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 17:57

BlueBlazer: Apr 1, 2010

Discendo Vox posted:

Conclusions
The researchers say the following:

I can't say this is entirely wrong, but none of it's new ground for the thread - and it's obvious the authors had the conclusion planned in advance (they're an ethnographic research contractor). "Antivaxxers are human beings" isn't a novel observation, and it's not surprising that they have rationalizations for their false beliefs or their selfish actions. A focus on individual vaccine persuasion ignores the systematic sources of misinformation and the social and political incentives that drive the antivaxx movement. It's gobsmacking that the authors literally identify that the different groups are working from false beliefs and these beliefs have well-defined, incentivized sources, and they don't even think about pulling on that thread.

I will be posting my antivaxxer book reviews ~~this evening~~ next week; with them I'm going to outline some explicit, systemic conclusions about how the antivaxx movement works, and specific policy changes to weaken the movement that you, yes you, can help make a reality.

Hey Vox, just want to pop in and say thanks for doing this leg work.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 18:17

Inferior Third Season: Jan 15, 2005

Rust Martialis posted:

Denmark - 10 March 2022

I am ending this series of updates. We're still at 10,000 cases a day, and 30-40 deaths. But it's absolutely not news here in DK any more.

Should something major happen I may resurrect this format but otherwise I hope it helped somehow. I found it useful to focus my thinking and maybe not all of it was ignorant speculation, even if most of it was.

Thanks.

It's just as well. Sundhedsstyrelsen made a statement today recommending that only people at special risk of becoming seriously ill from covid should get tested going forward.

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/seneste/fremover-skal-kun-syge-testes-corona

The official numbers are about to nosedive from lack of testing. It's anybody's guess what the real numbers would have been.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 20:38

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Jaxyon posted:

No it isn't at all.

But by all means, expand on this thought so I can at least understand what you mean. Water stops covid?

If you can't figure out what an isolated landmass/country with a gives you in terms of advantage, then just say so.

freebooter posted:

As has been explained to you countless times, China is a totalitarian superpower, it can marshal resources other countries can't.

It's also still plunging tens millions of people at a time into rolling lockdowns at the drop of a hat. That's what COVID-zero policy means: living with a Damocles sword of total disruption to people's lives, relationships, educations and businesses, which can and does come down on the reg. That was worth doing to save tens of thousands of lives. It is no longer worth doing when 95% of the population is vaccinated against death and severe disease.

It is pretty obvious that, unless you're a deliberate troll, you're talking out your rear end and you have absolutely no idea what Australia's COVID-zero policies (or New Zealand's, or Vietnam's, or Thailand's) ever entailed. All these countries just developed a bad "attitude," the #1 Trick Doctors Hate to defeating COVID.

Marshaling similar resources is not exclusive to totalitarian governments and can be done if the threat is taken seriously enough. It is simply a matter of will, wealth, and resources. Yes, covid-zero policy means lockdowns. That's what it takes. Your cavalier attitude towards covid is completely asinine. Covid is the Damocles sword of disruption, as serious respiratory illnesses tend to be! What you neglect to acknowledge, as your kind always does, is that covid mutates - and thus far has done so in the direction of rendering those protections afforded by vaccines and treatments less meaningful. Not to mention lingering symptoms post-infection! Your excuses for Australia's voluntary quitting are pathetic. Now I don't know what Australia's covid-zero policies were simply because I acknowledge they voluntarily quit? Hilarious.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 20:51

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Judakel posted:

Covid is the Damocles sword of disruption, as serious respiratory illnesses tend to be!

Rust Martialis posted:

It's absolutely not news here in DK any more.

I'm sorry you live in a country that blundered its response in every conceivable way, got a million people killed, is so politically bisected that a third of the population won't take the free miracle vaccine the government invented, and that as a result you've decided to fixate on the most harsh and extreme COVID-containment measures long past the point where they meet a cost-benefit analysis, but I don't see why I or any other Australian should give any more credence to that than I do to the unhinged people ranting on street corners.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 21:46

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# ? May 25, 2024 21:00

Fritz the Horse: Dec 26, 2019; ... of course!

I'd suggest you wrap up the circular argument on zero COVID and Australia unless you have something new to add to the conversation. freebooter and others have posted at length itt with varying opinions on the Australian lockdowns and eventual dropping of zero-COVID policies. Likewise there have been plenty of posts on zero COVID in China and other places and their successes and failures. It doesn't seem like you're going to convince each other of anything. If there are new developments that add something to the conversation, by all means please discuss news from China, Australia, NZ, wherever. We've been through the abstract arguments about zero COVID pretty exhaustively.

# ? Mar 10, 2022 22:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > COVID-19: People on the internet are judging me for going outside. It used to be the reverse.

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