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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:A few options, none mutual exclusive 4) Their boss is furious with their numerous failures and they had to prove their loyalty by going to the front lines to fix things.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:38
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I feel like I read something a few days ago that was saying a lot of high ranking Russian officers were heading to the front line, but I forgot the reasoning behind it. I think it was to improve momentum or something. At a guess it's because Russian command and control has mostly fallen apart and the units at the front are so jumbled up that only the generals have sufficient clout to unfuck things. Like I said, if a modern army has to have its generals at the front instead of at their headquarters something has gone utterly pear-shaped.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:39
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:A few options, none mutual exclusive One of the big qualified author military analysis Twitter threads listed 3) as being a problem for the big convoy of death near Kiev. Essentially that mid-high level commanders are being yelled at by the top bosses asking why the troops aren't moving. The communications and logistics are so broken they then go forward to try to find out, and to try to personally motivate the troops/improve rock bottom morale with their presence. They then die to drones/snipers/javelins etc.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:40
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:A few options, none mutual exclusive Mystic Mongol posted:4) Their boss is furious with their numerous failures and they had to prove their loyalty by going to the front lines to fix things. 5) They've fallen pray to the weird "Lead from the front" cult that got a ton of German generals and other senior officers killed in WW2.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:41
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Dante posted:Well more like certain bondholders are very hosed to be honest. For the record this is the drone being used:  Wikipedia says this one flies at 18k feet.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:44
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Payndz posted:They could not have picked a more Joss-Ackland-in-The-Hunt-For-Red-October-looking motherfucker if they'd tried. "Andrei, you're telling me you lost another
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Mar 7, 2022 23:44
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Cross posting because holy  "There are no conscripts in Ukraine! None!"  Do Russian officials just get off on lying? Is this a fetish?
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Mar 7, 2022 23:44
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TulliusCicero posted:"There are no conscripts in Ukraine! None!" They're not conscripts because at the border they're ordered to enlist!
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Mar 7, 2022 23:47
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Fame Douglas posted:If Modern Monetary Theory actually works like people on this forum have been claiming, seems like Russia could easily print their way out of this mess. Some other people have sorta addressed this. The key to MMT is that money is not the limiting factor in an economy, it's the industrial capacity of the country that's the real limiter. So if the military needs widgets, but the widget factory is only running at 5% capacity because nobody's buying widgets, you can fix that just by giving the military money so that they can buy more widgets. But if the widget factory is already running at 100% then you're just going to make the price of widgets skyrocket until more factories get built or converted. In general, if an omniscient supercomputer was determining all production/distribution in Russia instead of using money and prices, would that computer be able to find enough factories to fix the problem? If it could, then MMT might work. If not, they're in trouble.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:47
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Maybe the fancy titles are meaningless. Like how the Royal Navy has a million "Admirals" but only 20 odd ships.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:48
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy This could be technically true according to the reports of the conscripts being ordered to sign enlistment contracts before being forced over the border.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:48
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy Seems almost Trumpian, now that you mention it. Anyway, reading this is sobering, as usual: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-7
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Mar 7, 2022 23:49
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Dante posted:War is hell I was looking for an excuse to post this anyway in light of all the horrible deaths, including the deaths of Russian soldiers: 
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Mar 7, 2022 23:49
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:At a guess it's because Russian command and control has mostly fallen apart and the units at the front are so jumbled up that only the generals have sufficient clout to unfuck things. Like I said, if a modern army has to have its generals at the front instead of at their headquarters something has gone utterly pear-shaped. Russian comms and wayfinding are a nightmare, apparently. Cold war capperbar has severely delimited their tech capabilities, I wonder where it all went lol. I cannot imagine sitting in one of those deathtrap convoys. Ukraine must have some pretty lethal small arms/sharpshooters parties if they are risking the option to be blown to smithereens rather than face death by small arms. A problem is that this level of frustration due to lack of control can lead to revenge-based atrocities and things went into an extremely dark place in Afghanistan and Chechnya, Syria too. Funny how invading places for fake reasons leads to nightmare outcomes.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:50
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy I believe this is an expected result of 30 years of autocratic kleptocracy. The only way to survive in a position of power is to lie to your superior and paint a rosy picture of reality. Eventually everyone does that, all the way from the bottom to the top, and the guy on top is effectively cut off from reality. With all these dudes that fell, like Qaddafi, Hussein or even Trump, it’s always such a shock to them. Ceaucescu kept saying in desbelief “but the people love me” as he was led to be shot in a yard somewhere.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:50
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Blut posted:One of the big qualified author military analysis Twitter threads listed 3) as being a problem for the big convoy of death near Kiev. Essentially that mid-high level commanders are being yelled at by the top bosses asking why the troops aren't moving. The communications and logistics are so broken they then go forward to try to find out, and to try to personally motivate the troops/improve rock bottom morale with their presence. They then die to drones/snipers/javelins etc. It doesn’t help that they’re probably clearly giving orders, shouting, pointing and making it obvious to even the dumbest sniper that they are someone of considerable importance. I wonder if they’re dumb enough to wear a big generals hat and medals the front lines.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:51
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy It's mostly propaganda and not even intended for foreign audiences. This is very much normal in autocratic states - it doesn't matter if the world boos and laughs you off the stage, since you're never gonna show those parts in your national television.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:A few options, none mutual exclusive also 4) Russian officer core is badly understaffed, and intentionally smaller even when full, so relatively high ranked people are pulling extra duty as field command when the US would have them flying a desk in Arlington. 5) Russian officers of high rank tend to be the direct commanders of prestige units, and so tend to be put closer to the front even when not covering for staff shortages.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:53
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Vox Nihili posted:Kyiv is both an oblast and a city. There are definitely tanks in the oblast. There were also a number of clips with snow during the opening days of the campaign. So basically this "takedown" seems like nonsense? Yeah that's what I thought when I looked through the pics. Kyiv obl. extends all the way up to Pripyat on the northern border and a long way east. Both directions that Russian convoys have entered from. If Reuters are making the decision to remove tweets from propagandists then fair enough but that dude posting his own twitter owns isn't really much of a win.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:53
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These generals are Putin buddies who siphoned money off their armies for personal gain and ordered all the war crimes and deaths of thousands. The more of them die the better. The upside is they now have to promote from within without having the time to do as much of a background check for Putin worship as they would normally require. Hopefully, some of the new promotions will mutiny against Putin.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:54
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy Putin watched the bit of Chernobyl where Jared Harris calls out the Soviets for becoming a culture of lying, and so Putin said "I will show you the true power of lying"
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Mar 7, 2022 23:56
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https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987 This is bleak for russia. 90% of seed potatoes are imported? Yikes...
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Mar 7, 2022 23:59
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Eh not anymore. Against the type of things it was used in various forms of "Operation Bomb Useless Dirt"? Sure. But those modernized T-90s, T-72B3s, and T-80BVMs are millions of dollars each. Or they were, before a lot of the expensive equipment was stripped off of them... I keep reading how some of them are missing thermals/NVD's.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:59
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e: wrong thread
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Mar 7, 2022 23:59
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy Can't be a reservist or conscript if you were starved until you agreed to sign your professional contract before you were sent in!
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Mar 8, 2022 00:00
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Rad Russian posted:These generals are Putin buddies who siphoned money off their armies for personal gain and ordered all the war crimes and deaths of thousands. The more of them die the better. Bring on the putiny mutiny
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Mar 8, 2022 00:01
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Random Integer posted:Maybe the fancy titles are meaningless. Like how the Royal Navy has a million "Admirals" but only 20 odd ships. This is one of those weird factoids that I don't understand the existence of because it makes no sense. The Royal Navy does not have millions of Admirals. Not even hundreds. It's like a dozen flag officers total, not counting retired ones who are still allowed to use their rank as a title.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:01
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Barrel Cactaur posted:also 4) Russian officer core is badly understaffed, and intentionally smaller even when full, so relatively high ranked people are pulling extra duty as field command when the US would have them flying a desk in Arlington. Seems like that problem's getting worse. El Perkele posted:It's mostly propaganda and not even intended for foreign audiences. This is very much normal in autocratic states - it doesn't matter if the world boos and laughs you off the stage, since you're never gonna show those parts in your national television. But how does it work for a domestic audience, where many people are either going to be related to or at least know a conscript? Governments lie to their citizens all the time, but how is anyone going to suspend disbelief when it's literally their own son who they (1) know was conscripted and (2) mysteriously can no longer be contacted.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:02
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Tree Bucket posted:Bring on the putiny mutiny *watches in horror as hardliner reactionary generals form a military junta to give the West some payback after that softie Putin failed*
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Mar 8, 2022 00:02
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TulliusCicero posted:Cross posting because holy One of the things Republicans love about Putin is that he's mastered non-stop gaslighting.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:03
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Fame Douglas posted:If Modern Monetary Theory actually works like people on this forum have been claiming, seems like Russia could easily print their way out of this mess. Actually since Russia will likely get quite the inflationary hit from this, they should raise taxes according to nonsensical MMT meme theory.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:04
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https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1500969431496855564?s=20&t=u6sZfUl2dZMGvzDbW-_42A
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Mar 8, 2022 00:04
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Antigravitas posted:
This thread is admirably positive about Ukrainian performance but I can't help think that Russia are making more ground than we give them credit, despite obviously much higher than expected losses.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:04
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surf rock posted:But how does it work for a domestic audience, where many people are either going to be related to or at least know a conscript? Governments lie to their citizens all the time, but how is anyone going to suspend disbelief when it's literally their own son who they (1) know was conscripted and (2) mysteriously can no longer be contacted. You keep quiet about it because your friends and neighbors call you a liar and some policemen question you and look through your phone for anything incriminating.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:04
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surf rock posted:Seems like that problem's getting worse. You just drum it all of the time. Some people will believe it. Some people will be desensitized and don't really care. Some know it's a lie, but that's what radio and TV are blaring 24/7. What are they gonna do about it? As for 2) it's easy, you simply state Union of the Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia is a foreign agent. Then you rough up some protesters and maybe run some arrests and intimidation. I mean, even if 90 % of population knows it's a lie 99 % of them cannot really do anything about it. And the numbers for people who believe that particular image of reality in Russia are much higher.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:06
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Anubis posted:https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987 This is very fascinating and tells me a lot I didn't know about the Russian economy!
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Mar 8, 2022 00:06
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https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500970445889327118?t=Y-mqagv-nZW3HYmDljPRVA&s=19 Lol, lmao, can't even send anything securely. Logistics fail and now comms fail. Just an absolutely amateur effort from Russia.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:09
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Dante posted:Actually since Russia will likely get quite the inflationary hit from this, they should raise taxes according to nonsensical MMT meme theory. Raising taxes is also what "non meme" theory would say, just for different reasons i.e. states frequently raise additional taxes in wartime. That also won't have any effect because Russia isn't close to wealthy enough for that to matter. So Russia's still hosed and you still don't understand either MMT or regular MT.
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Mar 8, 2022 00:10
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1500969431496855564?s=20&t=u6sZfUl2dZMGvzDbW-_42A Clout loving Kadyrov scum keep getting deleted in real life after posting on social media you love to see it Paracausal posted:Lol, lmao, can't even send anything securely. Logistics fail and now comms fail. Just an absolutely amateur effort from Russia. Remember when experts insisted that super hackers and electronic warfare would hit Ukraine army right from the start and turn it off now Russian officers are as terrified to pick up phone as Chechen warlords they used to clap in 00s fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Mar 8, 2022 |
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Mar 8, 2022 00:10
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GTO posted:This thread is admirably positive about Ukrainian performance but I can't help think that Russia are making more ground than we give them credit, despite obviously much higher than expected losses. They’ve literally not moved at all in 48 hours. They are just shooting missiles now.
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