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A Bad King posted:I haven't seen much lionizing of neo-nazi elements of the Ukrainian military. the internet is vast. people claiming "why do i keep smelling garbage as i walk around this garbage dump" are just finding what they're seeking its a more respectable way of saying "do your research"
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Mar 8, 2022 23:54
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Danger posted:Then how about mainstream western media stop showing off Azov and other soldiers with blatant neo- Nazi affiliation? Yeah good point let us just stop the whole war so we can resolve that nebulous and poorly defined issue for you. Oh... hmm... I'm getting word that Russia doesn't want to stop??? Weird.
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Mar 8, 2022 23:56
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Danger posted:In fairness it's more like 90% of people I'd wager between the two parties. But I think this is a separate conversation. I'm talking about the manufacturing of the media narrative and the normalization of fascist ideology from partners of convenience and the aftermath of that. Russia should not have invaded and killed innocent people. We should not arm Nazis. I think both of these things can be true. I haven't seen this normalization you're talking about. The only concerns about Azov and nazis I've seen has come from Russia-affiliated news repeating the state's "reason" for invading. Yes, we can agree that both those things are true, but can we also agree that stopping the invasion is a more pressing issue than a small minority of Ukraine getting to live on and keep being bigots? Like an above poster said, do you really think if Russia assimilates Ukraine, the fascist problem will get better?
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Mar 8, 2022 23:57
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CommieGIR posted:We're done talking about the Azov Battalion until they get murdered by the Russians or something, everyone is well aware they exist and we're tired of the slapfights from it.
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Mar 8, 2022 23:58
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mustard_tiger posted:I think a mod posted that we should all shut the gently caress up about Nazi's. Can anyone answer my oil question? Fracking in North Dakota is eminently profitable even when oil is at $100 a barrel. Spooling up the extraction takes weeks, but the grapevine says "we're sitting on our hands until prices stabilize." The issue is the volatility and the availability of capital.
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Mar 8, 2022 23:59
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Often Abbreviated posted:Yeah good point let us just stop the whole war so we can resolve that nebulous and poorly defined issue for you. Oh... hmm... I'm getting word that Russia doesn't want to stop??? Weird. Russia doesn't control the media narrative around the conflict. To another poster's point, showcasing Ukrainian neo-nazis on mainstream media seems like a bad idea because both: it's lionizing neo-nazis and it's potentially underscoring Russia's spurious reason for invading.
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Mar 8, 2022 23:59
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Found a really good thread that covers the potential naval operations we could see from Russia. Thread has a lot of supporting links throughout, including coverage of the situation in Odesa. https://twitter.com/navalhistorian/status/1501257161695019010?s=20&t=bTVd0uUGy6bABOyBg48AdQ Short summary: Russia has a much more capable navy than Ukraine who was just starting to build theirs up in the last couple of years. Shipping is completely shut down in the Azov sea, which is way tougher on Ukraine than Russia. Russia would prefer to take the various ports intact, but that's looking difficult right now. The Russian navy could only land one brigade if they tried from the sea so it's likely any attack on Odesa would be paired with a landward assault. However any landing is complicated by the fact that Ukraine has most likely mined the waters surrounding Odesa and has proved they can take some shots at any minesweeper boats brought in to clear them. The Russian navy may be content to lurk offshore to lock up artillery and troops, but if they can manage to capture the ports or the head of a main Ukrainian waterway things could turn on Ukraine quickly. Yes, that is in fact the short summary.
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Mar 8, 2022 23:59
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mustard_tiger posted:Does anyone know if the high oil prices will allow American fracking to start up again. It seemed like Saudi Arabia opened the flood gates of oil to drive prices down and kill of the Canadian and American natural gas fracking while also harming Russia's economy. Now oil is creeping up again will some of those wells be economically viable again? It depends on if banks will lend. They got burned badly on the last few busts. But prices certainly support it right now.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:00
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mustard_tiger posted:Does anyone know if the high oil prices will allow American fracking to start up again. It seemed like Saudi Arabia opened the flood gates of oil to drive prices down and kill of the Canadian and American natural gas fracking while also harming Russia's economy. Now oil is creeping up again will some of those wells be economically viable again? Not an economist, but I would expect OPEC to nuke the market again, if it happens.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:01
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Danger posted:In fairness it's more like 90% of people I'd wager between the two parties. But I think this is a separate conversation. I'm talking about the manufacturing of the media narrative and the normalization of fascist ideology from partners of convenience and the aftermath of that. Russia should not have invaded and killed innocent people. We should not arm Nazis. I think both of these things can be true. You, and people like you, seem more upset about the existence of this one far-right element in Ukraine than you care about Russia's ongoing invasion and attempt to erase from the map a country of over 40 million people. "Man it's CRAZY there are Nazis in Ukraine!" "oh yeah the unprovoked invasion, indiscriminate shelling and killing, and attempted occupation/annexation/wiping from the map of an entire country is kinda bad too, I guess that is kinda Nazi-ish". You people never talk about neo-nazi elements in Russia ever, you are selectively mad at Ukraine because you have other grievances and politics you are projecting onto this war. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 9, 2022 00:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Not an economist, but I would expect OPEC to nuke the market again, if it happens. OPEC is in a catch-22 correct? If they spool up production now to capture that sweet sweet crazy-crisis money, there will be the potential to glut the market and create more of a mess for them 3 months down the line, so their current thinking is collect the free profits and truck on up until the point where we risk collapsing the economies of our customers and doing the thing we wanted to avoid doing to start with (killing prices).
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Mar 9, 2022 00:03
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I'm pretty sure no one in the western media loving knows what obscure Ukrainian fascist emblems are, as opposed to them deliberately showing that stuff as an attempt to praise fascism? like what
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Mar 9, 2022 00:03
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There are a bunch of lawsuits in South Florida involving the oligarchs - I wonder if this will cause the lawsuits to dry up.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:04
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KitConstantine posted:Could you explain also what exactly this will mean for Russia? They've apparently been graded all the way down to 'default imminent' Only matters to oligarchs and banks. On a larger scale, it also means no one in the world can or will invest money into Russia anymore. Russian companies can't use foreign investors to raise money. Regular Russian people don't own stocks or have 401Ks so the stock market is irrelevant to them. Millions will lose their jobs though because they work at Russian companies that do need investments. Hundreds of thousands more will lose jobs from all the foreign companies pulling out completely (ex: McDonalds). Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 00:07
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ten_twentyfour posted:I haven't seen this normalization you're talking about. The only concerns about Azov and nazis I've seen has come from Russia-affiliated news repeating the state's "reason" for invading. Yes, we can agree that both those things are true, but can we also agree that stopping the invasion is a more pressing issue than a small minority of Ukraine getting to live on and keep being bigots? Like an above poster said, do you really think if Russia assimilates Ukraine, the fascist problem will get better? PBS News Hour literally just had an entire segment dedicated to a neo-nazi government official. Including a prominent portrait of Bandera in the background. DutchDupe posted:You, and people like you, seem more upset about the existence of this one far-right element in Ukraine than you care about Russia's ongoing invasion and attempt to erase from the map a country of over 40 million people. I don't think it's crazy given the recent history of the region or their existence in other countries, including Russia. The US has been funding them for decades as well. I also don't really have much to add to the discussion condemning Russia as I agree with you all on the overall heinousness of the situation. But puff piece on likes neo-nazis training grandmas or whatever should be called out no matter who is putting them out there. edit: Thanks for the av whomever. I had that eisenstein one for like over a decade so maybe i'll let this ride. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 9, 2022 00:07
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KitConstantine posted:Could you explain also what exactly this will mean for Russia? They've apparently been graded all the way down to 'default imminent' Business is done on reputation basis. There are a few universally recognised firms, including the one you cite, that specialise in determining “trustworthiness” of financial entities, where someone with rating B is less likely to pay off a debt on time than someone with rating A, for example. The worse your rating is, the more difficult will it be for you to land a trade deal, and the worse terms you will be offered on any loan you want to take. This effectively means that your cash is getting devalued, since your 1000 dollar loan to buy a new katana will cost you not 1200 dollars after interest and fees, but 1500 dollars instead.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:10
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Another old enemy of Russia getting the boot in - a Caucasus news service interviewed the head of a Chechen Battalion in the Ukrainian army - it's an interesting read. https://twitter.com/chambersharold8/status/1501114919135162374?s=20&t=Hsl6b_EavKHXfoSeHeCVpA The interview itself is quite long, and the thread linked has summaries of the responses, but the closing paragraphs stood out: quote:In some articles they write about you that you repay Ukraine for the fact that the Ukrainians defended the independence of Ichkeria. Were there many such Ukrainians?
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Mar 9, 2022 00:12
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A Bad King posted:OPEC is in a catch-22 correct? If they spool up production now to capture that sweet sweet crazy-crisis money, there will be the potential to glut the market and create more of a mess for them 3 months down the line, so their current thinking is collect the free profits and truck on up until the point where we risk collapsing the economies of our customers and doing the thing we wanted to avoid doing to start with (killing prices). Well I think the best idea is in the short term you spool up oil production. I am sure the Canadian sands projects could be spun up relatively quickly. The fracking would take longer and I don't think the cost/benefit is there. In the medium turn you push to move as much as you can to electric/green energy as quickly as you can. You can push subsidies to trade in your petrol vehicle for a hybrid or EV much like the cash for clunkers deal. Raise MPG minimums to basically destroy the market for low MPG vehicles. And you reframe the Green New Deal/Green Energy debate as national security. Longer term you work to increase mass transit options nationwide. That high speed rail network sounds pretty good right now. Again you reframe it all as for national security and those against it "hate America/Canada/UK".
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Mar 9, 2022 00:13
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Okay, but Russia defaulted in 1998 already and that didn’t seem to do much in the long term (well, aside from putting Putin in power for the next ~30 years)
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Mar 9, 2022 00:14
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mustard_tiger posted:Does anyone know if the high oil prices will allow American fracking to start up again. It seemed like Saudi Arabia opened the flood gates of oil to drive prices down and kill of the Canadian and American natural gas fracking while also harming Russia's economy. Now oil is creeping up again will some of those wells be economically viable again? Well, no, but only because no matter who invaded America it would be bound to be an improvement mustard_tiger posted:Does anyone know if the high oil prices will allow American fracking to start up again. It seemed like Saudi Arabia opened the flood gates of oil to drive prices down and kill of the Canadian and American natural gas fracking while also harming Russia's economy. Now oil is creeping up again will some of those wells be economically viable again? I mean, the more oil prices increase the more viable those methods get. Yeah. Although there's also the possibility of countries with huge production and reserves just releasing more to drive down that profit margin again. In the long term I'm hoping this will be an overall boost to nuclear and renewables, but in the short term that wouldn't surprise me much I guess. Although it's not like you can snap your fingers and get those started again just like that KitConstantine posted:Could you explain also what exactly this will mean for Russia? They've apparently been graded all the way down to 'default imminent' It seems pretty clear. They are about to default on what they owe. Imminently. What does it mean, well it's bad. Another indication that the Russian economy is... not doing well. Danger posted:PBS News Hour literally just had an entire segment dedicated to a neo-nazi government official. Including a prominent portrait of Bandera in the background. And they were saying this person was awesome? PBS News Hour? Since that's the only way your 'argument' (being incredibly charitable there) makes any sense? Personally I have seen two examples of major media organizations having right wing Ukrainian soldiers in them and they were both accidental. As was the one you are talking about, which far from 'just happening' as you claim actually happened five loving days ago.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:15
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The default here is kinda mechanical, Russia won't pay its dollar/euro denominated foreign debts because they don't want to use their foreign reserves. Therefore they will technically default on debt when the due date hits. Their total government bonds denominated in dollar/euro is only around 50 billion USD, so it's just a drop in the vast ocean that is the international bond market. Long-term consequences will mostly be higher interest rates, but they're technically not defaulting due to financial inability to pay so if this situation is different in a year there might not be much long-term consequences. I highly doubt Russia's international role will be normalized in a year though. Russia can't really access the western part of the bond market now anyway, so for all intents and purposes the default has no immediate effect. The private sector bond market is much larger, and somewhat more interesting, because it puts a series of large Russian firms with international dealings in a very awkward situation. Gazprom paid off a bond with USD technically after they weren't allowed to, so it'll be interesting to see how that develops. Dante fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 00:15
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A Bad King posted:OPEC is in a catch-22 correct? If they spool up production now to capture that sweet sweet crazy-crisis money, there will be the potential to glut the market and create more of a mess for them 3 months down the line, so their current thinking is collect the free profits and truck on up until the point where we risk collapsing the economies of our customers and doing the thing we wanted to avoid doing to start with (killing prices). Yeah, even for a simpler reason. If they spool up right now, they’ll deliver the killing blow to Russian economy. As the meme goes, Vladimir Putin will remember this. Right now they’re enjoying the leverage they have over EU, and US to a lesser extent, and are working the full length of it for concessions or future deals.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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Ukraine's General Staff update, with livemap link for map context https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-march-general-staff-of-ukraine-in-kyiv-region-russian-troops https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/268038475509238 quote:Operational information as of 24.00 08.03.2022 on the Russian invasion the end of the thirteenth era of heroic confrontation of the Ukrainian people Russian military invasion.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1501331692761485312 I feel like the Saudis and UAE hitching their wagons to Russia is extremely dumb, but whatever I guess.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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A Bad King posted:OPEC is in a catch-22 correct? If they spool up production now to capture that sweet sweet crazy-crisis money, there will be the potential to glut the market and create more of a mess for them 3 months down the line, so their current thinking is collect the free profits and truck on up until the point where we risk collapsing the economies of our customers and doing the thing we wanted to avoid doing to start with (killing prices). No, they're in a win-win. They get goodwill from the world by increasing production to offset Russia's missing share and they cash in on the higher price. It will take a huge increase to push the price under $100 with the uncertainties at the moment.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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I imagine neo-nazis in Ukraine would probably take pains to jump in front of cameras whenever they could, since doing white power bullshit that sneaks into mass media is certainly something the American ones do.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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KitConstantine posted:Another old enemy of Russia getting the boot in
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Mar 9, 2022 00:16
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BoldFace posted:Wind turbines are really ugly. Prettier than coal smoke stacks.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:17
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1501331692761485312 To be fair: Biden refused to takes calls from the Saudis when he took office, so its tit-for-tat more less than hitching their wagon to Russia.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:18
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He also said this today https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1501253070201794565?s=20&t=Hsl6b_EavKHXfoSeHeCVpA 
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Mar 9, 2022 00:19
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Djarum posted:Well I think the best idea is in the short term you spool up oil production. I am sure the Canadian sands projects could be spun up relatively quickly. The fracking would take longer and I don't think the cost/benefit is there.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:20
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Eric Cantonese posted:They kill your birds. Far less than just buildings and magnitudes less than kittah
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Mar 9, 2022 00:21
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1501331692761485312 Negotiating power with Biden. Perhaps Mohammed bin Salman wants to be friends with Hollywood and Silicon Valley again (unfriended after Kashoggi) and will increase oil production if Biden can make MBS cool in California again.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:22
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Mokotow posted:Okay, but Russia defaulted in 1998 already and that didn’t seem to do much in the long term (well, aside from putting Putin in power for the next ~30 years) The mechanics of sovereign debt default have, in a way, a self-correcting effect, in sense that the consequences give the actors within the affected community an "advantage" or an "opportunity" to erase the problems that caused the crisis by decreasing the costs of dealing with their problems and by shielding them from external influences via improved terms of trade vis a vis foreign entities (my terminology is probably totally wrong, but I hope the gist of it is understandable). However, that is if the country isn't boycotted. If Russia remains a pariah state, these self-correcting mechanisms won't work if the whole economy is forced to turn inwards for a long period of time and if flows of money and trade are indefinitely frozen. That only leads to further deterioration as the economy becomes less competitive and more vulnerable to re-entering the global economy. This, when it played out for a long period of time (and for different reasons) crippled many Latin American countries that tried to emphasize self-reliance over trade. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 00:22
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Seems like something that shouldn’t be negotiated in the press. https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1501333459972800527
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Mar 9, 2022 00:31
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Nessus posted:I think it's fracking that would spin up faster than the oil sands unless they're on slack time but operating right now, and I had the impression those tar sands were not being heavily worked right now. https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1501181757579792386
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Mar 9, 2022 00:31
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1501331692761485312 Hey if this leads to the eventual American pullout of support for that bloodthirsty idiot MBS that's a win
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Mar 9, 2022 00:33
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:None of these countries has an entire battalion of neo Nazis or allows soldiers in their military to wear Nazi iconography on their uniforms. This is a lovely false comparison- Ukraine does have a serious problem on their hands wrt far right extremists openly serving in their army and being the recipients of heavy munitions from the west. None of this in any way justifies Putin's actions. But we also should be wary of flooding the country with heavy munitions given our extensive history of doing this exact thing with dire consequences. The Wagner group, named after hitlers favorite composer is lead is lead by this guy:  They are the ONLY authorized PMC in Russia and are funded by an oligarch close to Putin. They were sent to Assassinate the JEWISH president of Ukraine but were wiped out. They also commit war crimes in Syria and Africa.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:34
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Diva Cupcake posted:Seems like something that shouldn’t be negotiated in the press. Jesus Christ just give Ukraine the loving jets already. There has to be a way even if it's funneling them through a non-NATO country.
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Mar 9, 2022 00:35
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surf rock posted:https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1501331692761485312 yeah. i suspect Biden is looking to open full relations with Iran and Venezuela again plus i am sure other places.
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