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BrotherJayne posted:Weren't the mines Ukrainian? (And the. When they cleared some, the Russians pushed some vehicles through lickity-split) Ukraine is a party to the treaty against these things, and Russia is not. The mines are Russian-made. Also Russia has done this exact plant before in Syria. Just like with the intentional bobbing of hospitals. Putin is just literally a cartoon villain.
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Mar 9, 2022 09:18
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After the 2014, Ukraine made a declaration in regards to that treaty basically saying until the Russians are gone they will not abide by it. But again, this applies to anti personel mines and not anti tank mines. I am not sure which were used against the civilians and I am not sure which direction/route they were fleeing to.
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Mar 9, 2022 09:30
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:The obvious solution to the fighter aircraft problem is to give them to Pepsi, who then organizes a Ukraine only special promotion. Pepsi has already established in a court of law that it doesn't have to live up to obligations to specifically deliver fighter planes in a special promotion, so it'd be a gamble whether Ukraine actually gets them. Have Coca-Cola run the promotion instead.
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Mar 9, 2022 09:40
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We've very publicly given them 17,000 anti tank missiles and thousands of MANPADS that have already killed hundreds or thousands of Russians, but two dozen antique fighter jets is apparently a line no one is willing to cross.
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Mar 9, 2022 10:02
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If Russia can do little green men, why is it NATO cannot do little green fighter jets?
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Mar 9, 2022 10:05
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The whole transfer probably should have been a clandestine operation from the beginning, instead of taking place in public. But here we are, and everyone is suddenly squeamish about using bases that are already funnelling weapons to the front lines to fly aircraft into Ukraine and then leave them there.
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Mar 9, 2022 10:08
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Slashrat posted:Pepsi has already established in a court of law that it doesn't have to live up to obligations to specifically deliver fighter planes in a special promotion, so it'd be a gamble whether Ukraine actually gets them. Coke would just hand them over to South American paramilitary organizations to terrorize bottling company workers. I say give Pepsi a chance to redeem itself, it has experience with this sort of thing already.
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Mar 9, 2022 10:44
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Hey, for what it's worth, for people having trouble with this: I'm getting too stressed out to keep following the war, and I'm not even a veteran. While this thread has been excellent and informative so far, it's a lot. Nothing wrong with stepping away from it.
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Mar 9, 2022 10:51
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psydude posted:The whole transfer probably should have been a clandestine operation from the beginning, instead of taking place in public. But here we are, and everyone is suddenly squeamish about using bases that are already funnelling weapons to the front lines to fly aircraft into Ukraine and then leave them there. I think that they're going to hand over the jets. Someone will correct me (which is good, it means I learn something) but I think the Polish MiG's have been modified for interoperability with NATO missiles and I suspect that they'll need reversion to operate with the UA stores*. There may be other systems that want reversion/downgrade prior to putting them in a warzone where we can't guarantee they're not recoverable by our enemies. On the moral/legal aspects: I agree with you 100%. Cash and Carry and Lend Lease lay a pretty strong foundation that an arms dealer is under no requirement to favour both sides to stay non-belligerent. On the clandestine thing: It being in the newspapers that This Is A Thing That Is Happening for a few days presents a very different context for the Russians when they get the news around 200 that there was a MITO of massed aircraft originating from dispersed NATO airfields, last seen streaking east at treetop height. They were probably carrying drop tanks, but they could have been B61s. e: I'm assuming that's how you'd do the movement because you'd want them at UA airfields by the time the interceptors arrive at the border. *: I have no clue what they have in inventory for aircraft. IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 10:53
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ISW has been releasing good analyses daily based upon OSINT. Here's the latest: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8 Here's a very interesting tidbit: quote:The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 7 that elements of Russia’s Rosgvardia security forces, Ramazan Kadyrov’s Chechen fighters, and Wagner Group mercenaries (which the General Staff indicated have rebranded into a private military company called “Liga”), are preparing to join the renewed assault on the capital.[1] The use of such forces in addition to conventional military units to lead an assault is unusual. It likely indicates that the Russian military is struggling to amass sufficient combat power on this axis from the available conventional military units. Observed and reported casualties among Russian mechanized and airborne forces in the vicinity of northwestern Kyiv Oblast have been very high, and various reports suggest that the morale and combat effectiveness of the remaining conventional forces there are low.
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Mar 9, 2022 11:17
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they're gonna do the academi / xe / blackwater / triple canopy thing?
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Mar 9, 2022 11:22
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The Chechens have proven themselves highly vulnerable to death; the Rosgvardia are literally just cops that are incompetent at anything other than beating up protesters (literally the entire police force of a town in Southeastern Russia was wiped out); and I don't think the Wagner folks have any experience fighting a modern military, just Syrian rebels (except for the one time they tried to fight an ODA and lost). Should go great! e: The incompetence of the VDV and Spetznas continues to surprise me. I guess all of that backflip axe throwing doesn't translate well to actual warfare. Seems like a lot of the regular Russian forces have had far more success than they have. psydude fucked around with this message at 11:49 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 11:44
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Pretty good thread. See the rest below. https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1501357963394441217?s=20&t=6UkAUxCvvBtgJvGXx9y6FQ https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501357963394441217.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501357963394441217.html
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Mar 9, 2022 12:07
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Dick Ripple posted:If Russia can do little green men, why is it NATO cannot do little green fighter jets? They appear to be, just a bunch of journalists seem to be completely perplexed by the idea of saying one thing and doing another
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Mar 9, 2022 12:52
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psydude posted:
They're being ordered to do a lot of really dumb suicidal poo poo, mostly. Doesn't matter how good you are if you're ordered to do a helicopter raid against an enemy force that's armed with manpads and knows you're coming.
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Mar 9, 2022 12:58
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re: the US vetoing the Polish Mig plan. It's understandable that the US is squeamish about this. Several dozen jets taking off from Ramstein, flying directly to Ukraine, and firing on Russian armor looks an awful lot like NATO directly joining the war regardless of whether or not Poland signed over the title of the jets to Zelensky J. Hugeballs. Also, Poland has a deep hatred of Russia for (understandable) historical reasons, and in recent years their government has taken a hard turn into right wing nationalism. I wouldn't be surprised if the US and EU are really worried about Poland deciding to no long stay on the sidelines and popping off ww3 proper. I'm just an rear end in a top hat on the internet though, not like they're telling me anything.
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Mar 9, 2022 13:24
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psydude posted:Wagner Group mercenaries (which the General Staff indicated have rebranded into a private military company called “Liga" liga balls bob dobbs is dead posted:they're gonna do the academi / xe / blackwater / triple canopy thing? It worked well enough for the US, why not use the idea?
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Mar 9, 2022 13:52
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Slashrat posted:Pepsi has already established in a court of law that it doesn't have to live up to obligations to specifically deliver fighter planes in a special promotion, so it'd be a gamble whether Ukraine actually gets them. polar bears vs russian bears 
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Mar 9, 2022 14:27
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mrmcd posted:re: the US vetoing the Polish Mig plan. It's understandable that the US is squeamish about this. Several dozen jets taking off from Ramstein, flying directly to Ukraine, and firing on Russian armor looks an awful lot like NATO directly joining the war regardless of whether or not Poland signed over the title of the jets to Zelensky J. Hugeballs. Also, Poland has a deep hatred of Russia for (understandable) historical reasons, and in recent years their government has taken a hard turn into right wing nationalism. I wouldn't be surprised if the US and EU are really worried about Poland deciding to no long stay on the sidelines and popping off ww3 proper. I'm assuming they'd be flown to Ukrainian bases first before being put into service, instead of being based out of NATO airfields.
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Mar 9, 2022 14:43
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I saw this during my morning scrolling, it keeps making me laugh.... https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1501254688238362626?s=21
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Mar 9, 2022 14:44
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Midjack posted:liga balls we are no longer the Wagner group we are the Rohm group
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Mar 9, 2022 14:48
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:The obvious solution to the fighter aircraft problem is to give them to Pepsi, who then organizes a Ukraine only special promotion. Pepsi keeps the jets, and begins the first corporate war.
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Mar 9, 2022 14:48
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 pepsi points: more valuable than the ruble
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Mar 9, 2022 14:51
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psydude posted:I'm assuming they'd be flown to Ukrainian bases first before being put into service, instead of being based out of NATO airfields. Sure but the actualities and technicalities doesn't really matter, if Putin considers it direct NATO involvement, that's what it is. Whether he's bluffing or not, why previous shipments of other arms didn't count, or if the MiGs are staying in Poland or if NATO is trying their hand in the mysterious ways of maskirovka and 5d chess, who knows. While unlikely I'm kinda hoping it's all a shell game and that the fighters were heading to Ukraine all along but polish goons are saying that the polish state and defense departments these days are rather incompetent due to politically motivated purges, so it could all well be bureaucratic incompetence which at this time unfortunately looks like the simplest answer.
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Mar 9, 2022 14:58
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Churchill posted:Sure but the actualities and technicalities doesn't really matter, if Putin considers it direct NATO involvement, that's what it is. Whether he's bluffing or not, why previous shipments of other arms didn't count, or if the MiGs are staying in Poland or if NATO is trying their hand in the mysterious ways of maskirovka and 5d chess, who knows. While unlikely I'm kinda hoping it's all a shell game and that the fighters were heading to Ukraine all along but polish goons are saying that the polish state and defense departments these days are rather incompetent due to politically motivated purges, so it could all well be bureaucratic incompetence which at this time unfortunately looks like the simplest answer. Bureaucratic gridlock? In NATO? 
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Mar 9, 2022 15:04
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Also the Ukrainian air fields are all in areas where both sides are actively shooting at each other's aircraft. Even if there were some "it's not NATO if it touched Ukrainian soil for 5 seconds" rule getting into a fight with the Russians might not be optional.
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Mar 9, 2022 15:10
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Stultus Maximus posted:Bureaucratic gridlock? In NATO? After dealing with the Turkish security guys and Italian IT guys, I just might think NATO isn't a well oiled, mission focused machine
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Mar 9, 2022 15:11
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Churchill posted:Sure but the actualities and technicalities doesn't really matter, if Putin considers it direct NATO involvement, that's what it is. Whether he's bluffing or not, why previous shipments of other arms didn't count, or if the MiGs are staying in Poland or if NATO is trying their hand in the mysterious ways of maskirovka and 5d chess, who knows. While unlikely I'm kinda hoping it's all a shell game and that the fighters were heading to Ukraine all along but polish goons are saying that the polish state and defense departments these days are rather incompetent due to politically motivated purges, so it could all well be bureaucratic incompetence which at this time unfortunately looks like the simplest answer. You can also think of it in terms of gradients. Academically I see the term escalation ladder a lot. But you can also just dumb it down to percent. 0% being no war, 50% being active conventional weapons employment, 80% being limited tactical nukes, and 100% being apocalyptical thermonuclear war With the sanctions and small arms provisions we're at 9% war with Russia. They're hesitant to bump it up to 10% with the delivery of planes. As as you may consider its a very transition as things get more heated. I also think they should have named it the escalation slope and not ladder because you tend to fall down and not be able to climb back easy.
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Mar 9, 2022 15:16
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Also water is wet. https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1501560078658379776?s=21
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Mar 9, 2022 15:20
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Also water is wet. uh oh somebody left red boxes on the "coerce 100% unit enlistment" spreadsheet
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Mar 9, 2022 15:29
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Mar 9, 2022 15:40
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M_Gargantua posted:You can also think of it in terms of gradients. Academically I see the term escalation ladder a lot. But you can also just dumb it down to percent. 0% being no war, 50% being active conventional weapons employment, 80% being limited tactical nukes, and 100% being apocalyptical thermonuclear war When I started calling it the Doomsday Hole everyone got scared, which I intended, and then they got angry with me, which I didn't. It's funny now
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Mar 9, 2022 15:47
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Also water is wet. So, are russian conscripts allowed to serve abroad?
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Mar 9, 2022 15:48
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Nick Soapdish posted:After dealing with the Turkish security guys and Italian IT guys, I just might think NATO isn't a well oiled, mission focused machine No Action Talk Only (I’m in a NATO reserve unit and we’re being told that there’s little chance of activation - EUCOM will handle it)
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Mar 9, 2022 15:52
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Xakura posted:So, are russian conscripts allowed to serve abroad? Wasn’t it rumored earlier that a lot of conscripts were “highly encouraged” to sign contracts during the lead up? That would explain a lot.
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Mar 9, 2022 15:54
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Also water is wet. I thought for a moment they meant Ukrainian conscripts.
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Mar 9, 2022 15:55
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Wasn’t it rumored earlier that a lot of conscripts were “highly encouraged” to sign contracts during the lead up? That would explain a lot. A lot of the PoWs are saying they were forced to sign enlistment contracts like the day before the invasion. Stultus Maximus posted:No Action Talk Only Curious about this. Is a NATO reserve unit just a normal US military reserve component unit with NATO as its operational command instead of a normal reserve command? psydude fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 16:03
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Wasn’t it rumored earlier that a lot of conscripts were “highly encouraged” to sign contracts during the lead up? That would explain a lot. Yes, but now that russian MOD has "discovered" that several conscripts didn't, I wondered if anyone knew if russian conscription law allowed for service abroad. (I'm assuming it doesn't, and that's why they did the "highly encouraging" stuff)
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Mar 9, 2022 16:05
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Xakura posted:Yes, but now that russian MOD has "discovered" that several conscripts didn't, I wondered if anyone knew if russian conscription law allowed for service abroad. (I'm assuming it doesn't, and that's why they did the "highly encouraging" stuff) It doesn't. Conscripts cannot serve outside of Russian territory.
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Mar 9, 2022 16:05
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Xakura posted:Yes, but now that russian MOD has "discovered" that several conscripts didn't, I wondered if anyone knew if russian conscription law allowed for service abroad. (I'm assuming it doesn't, and that's why they did the "highly encouraging" stuff) This is the beginning of the scapegoating for the invasion. Over the next few weeks there will be a few more stories like this and eventually they'll find someone to blame for this clusterfuck who isn't Putin or anyone actually responsible.
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Mar 9, 2022 16:08
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