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Affi
Dec 18, 2005

Break bread wit the enemy

X GON GIVE IT TO YA
Storing tanks still require constant maintenance. I mean not as much as active ones.

But if they're maintaining their active ones this bad then yeah.

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Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

TheRat posted:

I guess a horrible, unupgraded T72 is just as good canon-fodder as a modern tank.

We are testing this theory; so far the kill rate on the Javelin system alone is high enough (85% of missiles are a kill iirc) that they have enough, even accounting for BMPs and other hard targets.

When you add the NLAWs and Panzerfaust 3 etc, it's numerically pretty favourable even if you are treating this like some fake Red Alert tank rush scenario where all 13,000 tanks magically come to life.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
Presumably a bunch of Javelin users get shot, hit by artillery, air strikes and so on.

85% of missiles fired might be kills, but I bet a bunch of Javelins get lost before getting to the point of firing.

But yeah, this isn't looking good for the Russian invasion force - the tanks getting destroyed will be the absolute best ones they have, where they've spent all their maintenance, supplies, training and prep time.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

TheRat posted:

I guess a horrible, unupgraded T72 is just as good canon-fodder as a modern tank.

Not really, because chances are they each need 1000s of manhours of maintenance before they can even drive out of the warehouse.


keep punching joe posted:

Is the Russian tactic to make Ukraine use up all their Javelins and then start the real assault?


There's been 17,000 anti tank weapons of various types sent there so far, and I think there's probably more on the way. It also probably doesn't include drone-based weapons in that count either.
I've seen figures of at least 5,000 Javelins alone, vs 3,000 Russian tanks taking part in the invasion.


Hopefully Turkey sends a few of them over, it'd be good marketing.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Some random twitter account that was almost certainly just making stuff up suggested that Turkey had asked that actually the Bayraktar propaganda be turned down a little because they don't want too much emphasis on how much their kit is killing Russians.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Alchenar posted:

Some random twitter account that was almost certainly just making stuff up suggested that Turkey had asked that actually the Bayraktar propaganda be turned down a little because they don't want too much emphasis on how much their kit is killing Russians.

Considering how much they were spamming it at the start compared to the last week or so, it's either that or they've mostly been shot down by now.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

Alchenar posted:

Some random twitter account that was almost certainly just making stuff up suggested that Turkey had asked that actually the Bayraktar propaganda be turned down a little because they don't want too much emphasis on how much their kit is killing Russians.

I can't imagine Turkey would be sad that their export weapons platform they want to sell lots of is becoming a household name.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

gay picnic defence posted:

I would be highly amused if this turned out to be a calculated move by China to delay the invasion until it would gently caress Russia over and deliver China a shiny new client state to exploit.

Seeing their logistics and C3 issues, they most likely ended up delaying for a month or so purely due to traffic control, then a week while waiting to see if any of the false flags their proxies ineptly tried to set up would stick, then an extra day of final combat maneuvering after they had already made the final decision.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

mobby_6kl posted:

I'm no PLA expert but I do remember reading in the China thread that a lot of their training is basically just driving around and doing parades and other useless shitit and then occasionally they'll do some firing range practice. So yeah.

In recent years China has been sending large numbers of troops on UN peacekeeping deployments because they've realised that training and combat simulations are no substitute for actually getting their kit out in the field and seeing how it stacks up.

In a war scenario they are at a huge disadvantage to the US because the US has had 20 years of constant warfare to hone their processes and operating procedures, and a big part of bringing their military up to speed for a potential invasion of Taiwan is getting similar combat experience somehow.

Groke
Jul 27, 2007
New Adventures In Mom Strength

Franks Happy Place posted:

Russia has maaaybe 3,000 active tanks, the rest being "in storage". Most of the ones in storage are old, un-upgraded T72s, likely in a horrible state.

I suspect a bunch of them have been home to generations of small animals by now.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

gay picnic defence posted:

There's been 17,000 anti tank weapons of various types sent there so far, and I think there's probably more on the way. It also probably doesn't include drone-based weapons in that count either.
I've seen figures of at least 5,000 Javelins alone, vs 3,000 Russian tanks taking part in the invasion.

And not to forget Ukraine's own stock of RPGs and ATGMs. I think they are set for life in terms of anti tank weapons.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

I only remember news that MOEX was still closed yesterday, but nothing about today - how's the Russian stock market going?

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Haven't seen this one elsewhere yet:

Tagesschau posted:

China has refused to supply Russian airlines with spare parts for aircraft, according to the Russian aviation safety authority Rosaviazia. They will try to obtain spare parts from other countries such as India or Turkey, the Russian news agency Interfax quoted a spokesperson for the authority as saying.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

Gort posted:

I can't imagine Turkey would be sad that their export weapons platform they want to sell lots of is becoming a household name.

There's a target-rich environment full of high-value targets that look very impressive when you blow them up, which are stuck in the mud so they can't actually stop you from doing that. The entire world is watching and your client is motivated to talk up your product as much as possible in order to demoralise the russians. It's pretty much a perfect storm for good marketing.

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

gay picnic defence posted:

In recent years China has been sending large numbers of troops on UN peacekeeping deployments because they've realised that training and combat simulations are no substitute for actually getting their kit out in the field and seeing how it stacks up.

In a war scenario they are at a huge disadvantage to the US because the US has had 20 years of constant warfare to hone their processes and operating procedures, and a big part of bringing their military up to speed for a potential invasion of Taiwan is getting similar combat experience somehow.

What this war is showing me (sitting at my desk reading the internets), is that the most important thing for any decent sized army is the logistics. Far more important than actual combat experience.

Well, logistics and an air force that is actually capable of doing what it's supposed to do: flying high, in sufficient numbers, taking out the enemy air defence quickly, so that you can then support your ground forces.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

uXs posted:

What this war is showing me (sitting at my desk reading the internets), is that the most important thing for any decent sized army is the logistics. Far more important than actual combat experience.

Logistics people get war-experience too. They may not be personally getting shot at, but everything works differently when all the plans have gone to poo poo and everything's hosed (a normal state of affairs during an actual shooting war), and they get experience in how to run their logistics in a hosed environment.

FishMcCool
Apr 9, 2021

lolcats are still funny
Fallen Rib
Ok, how does that work? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60690362

quote:

Announcing the move on Twitter, the UK's Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries said the football club will be given a special licence so that it can continue playing matches, paying staff and ensuring ticket-holders can go to matches while ensuring Abramovich makes no money through his ownership of the club.

She added that the government is "working hard to ensure the club and the national game are not unnecessarily harmed by these important sanctions".

Abramovich had put the club up for sale, but the asset freeze announced today means this will no longer be possible.

The government says the licence will be kept under review.

Abramovich's assets are frozen, but the club keeps operating/paying? Unless the "special licence" is basically an ongoing asset seizure, where does the money come from?

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Antigravitas posted:

Haven't seen this one elsewhere yet:

Turns out the Chinese also enjoy not traveling by train or ocean liner between the continents.

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
Well yea, logistics has been the biggest part of fielding an army since armies have existed. People need food & supplies.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1501860500224847873

That message makes sense to Indian audiences, has to be said

Much of the non-West world is baffled that Europe does not consider Ukraine as a skirmish outside Europe but instead seems to feel that Ukrainians are integrally Europeans and that Russia is attacking Europe (and therefore that France and Germany are not champing at the bit to mark their independence from Anglo-American policy)

In early Feb it would have been plausible in Beijing to forecast that a quick Ukraine annexation would give China a chance to peel France and Germany out of the US-led sphere and into a Russia-dominated European one

ronya fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Mar 10, 2022

Thoughtless
Feb 1, 2007


Doesn't think, just types.

ronya posted:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1501860500224847873

That message makes sense to Indian audiences, has to be said

Much of the non-West world is baffled that Europe does not consider Ukraine as a skirmish outside Europe but instead seems to feel that Ukrainians are integrally Europeans and that Russia is attacking Europe (and therefore that France and Germany are not champing at the bit to mark their independence from Anglo-American policy)

What would they consider Ukraine if not part of Europe? I don't think I've ever seen anyone suggest it'd be anything else.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
aspirationally European as a multinational identity, rather than geographically, let's say

"people like us that we should protect" vs "interventions in some far-away place"

imagined communities are always, uh, imaginary and self-willed to an extent

ronya fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Mar 10, 2022

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

uXs posted:

What this war is showing me (sitting at my desk reading the internets), is that the most important thing for any decent sized army is the logistics. Far more important than actual combat experience.

Well, logistics and an air force that is actually capable of doing what it's supposed to do: flying high, in sufficient numbers, taking out the enemy air defence quickly, so that you can then support your ground forces.

The Lone Badger posted:

Logistics people get war-experience too. They may not be personally getting shot at, but everything works differently when all the plans have gone to poo poo and everything's hosed (a normal state of affairs during an actual shooting war), and they get experience in how to run their logistics in a hosed environment.

Yeah, but the funny thing is that if you look back to WWII and pay attention to how battles/campaigns were won or lost it is clear that logistics is such a critical factor. It isn't some state secret or anything like that. It's funny that a number of battles in WWII were actually won by a side with inferior weapons and equipment but they did have the logistics and mobility to support what they did have available. But the number of trucks or the billions of dollars spent on maintenance or training doesn't look as sexy as 20,000 armoured vehicles and a trillion dollar advanced weapons program.

And driving a convoy of trucks across the country as training really doesn't replicate a war experience where as you say, everything is hosed. In training everything is getting properly maintained according to schedule but in war maybe the spare parts truck got blown up or the grease gun went missing or the guy who is good at fixing fuel injectors got shot. You really need some sort of war experience to stress test your system and your people and see where the bottle necks are before you throw them into a pitched battle with a peer strength enemy.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Thoughtless posted:

What would they consider Ukraine if not part of Europe? I don't think I've ever seen anyone suggest it'd be anything else.

Is it a weird EU=Europe thing maybe?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




mmkay posted:

I only remember news that MOEX was still closed yesterday, but nothing about today - how's the Russian stock market going?

They announced yesterday that reading won’t happen today.

Sucrose
Dec 9, 2009
Series of before/after images showing the destruction in Mariupol:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ldrens-hospital

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

ronya posted:


In early Feb it would have been plausible in Beijing to forecast that a quick Ukraine annexation would give China a chance to peel France and Germany out of the US-led sphere and into a Russia-dominated European one

That is wild, tbh.

The people who want to get out of the US-led sphere in Europe are typically EU federalists. And of course EU countries are going to be bemused when a country that wants to move closer to the EU gets invaded by a country that wants to prevent that.

What does the EU have to do to become noticed as a bloc on the world stage; bomb an African country for no reason? :v: (clearly that didn't work, I guess)

ronya posted:

aspirationally European as a multinational identity, rather than geographically, let's say

"people like us that we should protect" vs "interventions in some far-away place"

imagined communities are always, uh, imaginary and self-willed to an extent

One look at a map should make it obvious that this war is very much not "far-away" for a lot of EU countries, though.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Propaganda, but will be interesting to see if more neutral sources pick this up and see if it has legs:

https://twitter.com/TsybulskaLiubov/status/1501862686396661764

e: like the most obvious question is 'is this actually an unusual number of places to be newly up for sale in an area this large and populated?'

dr_rat
Jun 4, 2001

Thoughtless posted:

What would they consider Ukraine if not part of Europe? I don't think I've ever seen anyone suggest it'd be anything else.
Ex-soviet or East Europe vs West Europe (as some sort of "proper" Europe). I know in quite a few places their news paper will cover international news from France, German, Scandinavian country etc, but nothing from any Eastern European countries other than Russia. I can imagine people seeing that and assuming there's a hard divide between.

Threadkiller Dog
Jun 9, 2010
A lot of europeans have visited Ukraine or worked with Ukrainians and companies have offices there. It's not like some faraway weird place. They are probably more real people [tm] to us than Russians thats for sure.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Antigravitas posted:

One look at a map should make it obvious that this war is very much not "far-away" for a lot of EU countries, though.

a lot of the world remembers France and Germany grumbling a great deal about the NATO intervention in the former Yugoslavia

It's especially vivid in China for Belgrade embassy bombing reasons

ronya fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Mar 10, 2022

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Alchenar posted:

Propaganda, but will be interesting to see if more neutral sources pick this up and see if it has legs:

https://twitter.com/TsybulskaLiubov/status/1501862686396661764

e: like the most obvious question is 'is this actually an unusual number of places to be newly up for sale in an area this large and populated?'

The second most obvious question is, how do you know those listings were placed by FSB employees.

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

TheRat posted:

Is it a weird EU=Europe thing maybe?

Personally, I see everything left of the line you can draw from Finland to the Black Sea as Europe. Obviously there's a bit of wiggle room but at least half of Ukraine is in Europe.

Besides, Russia has always seen itself as in Europe as well. And the Eurovision Song Contest, which is the most important authority on the subject, agrees.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Speaking of the Balkans:

Tagesschau posted:

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock sees the war in Ukraine as proof of the urgency of further rapprochement of the Western Balkan states with the European Union. "We want to live together in the European house," Baerbock said during a visit to Sarajevo. "This country belongs to Europe," she added with regard to Bosnia-Herzegovina after consultations with Foreign Minister Bisera Turkovic. For this, she said, more joint and intensive work must be done.

Baerbock said that she had come to Sarajevo precisely because a war was raging "in our immediate neighbourhood". She would talk to her interlocutors about the "immeasurable value of peace", said the Green politician, referring to the Balkan war in the 1990s, which raged particularly relentlessly in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Germany and its partners would "not allow any erosion of the security situation".

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Sucrose posted:

Series of before/after images showing the destruction in Mariupol:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ldrens-hospital

As much as it sucks and Russia are fuckwits for doing this, they've been hitting it hard for like a week now and it looks like most buildings are still standing (and potentially a good place to hide a Javelin crew). It's done next to nothing for their overall war effort and carrying all those artillery shells has used up their transport capacity that could've been used to supply troops advancing further into Ukraine.

Small Strange Bird
Sep 22, 2006

Merci, chaton!
Watched a video the other day that detailed (well enough, to my reading) Putin's motivations and objectives in invading Ukraine, and one was to restore a major water supply to Crimea that after its annexation the Ukrainians had, entirely reasonably, dammed up. I'm curious if the Russians have destroyed the dam yet - anyone know?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

uXs posted:

Besides, Russia has always seen itself as in Europe as well. And the Eurovision Song Contest, which is the most important authority on the subject, agrees.

Agreed, the European Broadcasting Union is the map of REAL Europe.

SpiritOfLenin
Apr 29, 2013

be happy :3


Payndz posted:

Watched a video the other day that detailed (well enough, to my reading) Putin's motivations and objectives in invading Ukraine, and one was to restore a major water supply to Crimea that after its annexation the Ukrainians had, entirely reasonably, dammed up. I'm curious if the Russians have destroyed the dam yet - anyone know?

I think they destroyed or captured it pretty early on

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

steinrokkan posted:

The second most obvious question is, how do you know those listings were placed by FSB employees.

The OP would actually be in a place to know, whether or not you consider them trustworthy...

One for the Bellingcat types to pick up

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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

steinrokkan posted:

Agreed, the European Broadcasting Union is the map of REAL Europe.


[Freude schöner Götterfunken intensifies]

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