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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





CommieGIR posted:

What is normal, even?

Not this

:smug:

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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





cruft posted:

I'm trying so hard to only lurk, but I have to ask if this sort of thing is normal. Like, I get everybody's pushing their own narrative, but abandoning a $20mil missile battery seems to indicate a serious problem in Russia's army. But I write software for a living so I have no idea what's normal.

This thread has been so helpful in my understanding what the hell is going on, thanks for everyone generally saying things informed by actually knowing how military things are done.

And you're welcome to post here. We're a pretty welcoming bunch of brokebrains.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

karoshi posted:

I've been meaning to look at the geography of ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Ukraine):

and compare it to a current situation map:


Is it me, or have the maps been almost the same since this thing began?

In other words, for Russia, they're not advancing and it's a stalemate at best and the clusterfuck we all know it is at worst?

Arrath
Apr 14, 2011


Comrade Blyatlov posted:

No. Nothing about any of this is normal.

Someone dig up the idiot's thread story of the chain of events that ended with two helicopters tragically colliding, searching for a pistol, I think it was.

Abandoning tanks or whatever? Nope.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

CBJSprague24 posted:

Is it me, or have the maps been almost the same since this thing began?

In other words, for Russia, they're not advancing and it's a stalemate at best and the clusterfuck we all know it is at worst?

They're encircling Kyiv! i say for the thousandth time as i slowly turn into a corncob.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

KitConstantine posted:

(Popping in, I usually lurk this thread bc I'm a civilian)
Russia's also lost every TOR M1 SAM they had listed in pre-war inventory
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501958391824011267?t=XSv5YckE8j-NR1eopXJjLg&s=19
BTW how much does one of these go for mint in-box?
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1501957170157568011?t=ThwgarYpJwg-7VdGR78AJg&s=19

Ukraine had six before the beginning of this round of hostilities; Russia had something like 172.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Half of Kyiv's population has bailed, holy gently caress

Having most non-combatants/wounded out of the way makes a defence much easier to work with and we are also again back to logistics (food, water, ammo & amenities).

The fight goes on.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Mr. Nice! posted:

They're encircling Kyiv! i say for the thousandth time as i slowly turn into a corncob.

They are certainly trying. Its not gone well.

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

CommieGIR posted:

What is normal, even?

Relative.

So while maintenance and logistics are relative to us, expired MREs, no fuel and tires so old they eat themselves are apparently normal to the Russians.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Relative.

So while maintenance and logistics are relative to us, expired MREs, no fuel and tires so old they eat themselves are apparently normal to the Russians.

What is normal to the spider is chaos to the fly. - Morticia Addams

CainFortea
Oct 15, 2004


cruft posted:

I'm trying so hard to only lurk, but I have to ask if this sort of thing is normal. Like, I get everybody's pushing their own narrative, but abandoning a $20mil missile battery seems to indicate a serious problem in Russia's army. But I write software for a living so I have no idea what's normal.

This thread has been so helpful in my understanding what the hell is going on, thanks for everyone generally saying things informed by actually knowing how military things are done.

A US officer once left his pistol somewhere in the desert and like hundreds of people had to go looking for it and a helicopter crashed and killed people.

So yea, it's really weird seeing whole rear end vehicles just abandoned.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

CainFortea posted:

A US officer once left his pistol somewhere in the desert and like hundreds of people had to go looking for it and a helicopter crashed and killed people.

So yea, it's really weird seeing whole rear end vehicles just abandoned.

You see, projections from this book of Russia vs NATO expects that they would take these losses. They're actually moving at lightning speed. It took the USA 30 days to take Baghdad! Russia has achieved every objective they have set out to accomplish.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.
I should note I do not believe the things I am posting I am just yelling into the void after reading other people say these things.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

FrozenVent posted:

Ukraine had six before the beginning of this round of hostilities; Russia had something like 172.

Edited, thanks. I shouldn't post before stimulants

Have some math as a thank you
X-post.

The Russians are finally realizing that their logistics look like poo poo and are embarrassing. All that would look real bad if it got back to the home crowd. Brainwave! Propoganda videos! But why film two, no time use the same one for both no one will notice
https://twitter.com/SlickRockWeb/status/1501952198061613072?t=S04VwU7_wl-xJQVnkwCFNA&s=19
Lol
Also, 6 tons of food per day sounds like a lot. But assuming no losses that's 27 grams per soldier per day. (6 metric tons divided by 200k)

Assuming the US low end loss calculations are correct, and removing wounded from the total as well since they're presumably being fed at the hospital (lol) that leaves 180k. So a whopping 30 grams per soldier!!

An average slice of bread is 38 grams.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Mr. Nice! posted:

You see, projections from this book of Russia vs NATO expects that they would take these losses. They're actually moving at lightning speed. It took the USA 30 days to take Baghdad! Russia has achieved every objective they have set out to accomplish.

Pantslesswithwolves how are things stacking up on your projections

Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



KitConstantine posted:

Edited, thanks. I shouldn't post before stimulants

Have some math as a thank you
X-post.

The Russians are finally realizing that their logistics look like poo poo and are embarrassing. All that would look real bad if it got back to the home crowd. Brainwave! Propoganda videos! But why film two, no time use the same one for both no one will notice
https://twitter.com/SlickRockWeb/status/1501952198061613072?t=S04VwU7_wl-xJQVnkwCFNA&s=19
Lol
Also, 6 tons of food per day sounds like a lot. But assuming no losses that's 27 grams per soldier per day. (6 metric tons divided by 200k)

Assuming the US low end loss calculations are correct, and removing wounded from the total as well since they're presumably being fed at the hospital (lol) that leaves 180k. So a whopping 30 grams per soldier!!

An average slice of bread is 38 grams.


Ehhhhh...that's a guy whose Twitter claims he's a "citizen journalist" and "numbers guy." You're making an assumption that he's working off a complete set of facts, i.e. that those photos show the only logistics train carrying food. If nothing else, given the sheer size of Ukraine, I find that to be unlikely.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Shooting Blanks posted:

Ehhhhh...that's a guy whose Twitter claims he's a "citizen journalist" and "numbers guy." You're making an assumption that he's working off a complete set of facts, i.e. that those photos show the only logistics train carrying food. If nothing else, given the sheer size of Ukraine, I find that to be unlikely.

The original post is the guy quoting a known Russian propogandist and the videos are from Russia Today.
https://twitter.com/SlickRockWeb/status/1501949211796852742?s=20&t=7bCrCrpldYmg4eaLBQzRYA
Also assuming it's one of 10 a day going all over, then based on the original assessments of force that's enough for 270 grams per soldier. A can of beans is 450 grams.

Edit: original video from that Deano dude's Twitter. If you wanna know what line the Russians are pushing give his timeline a scroll
https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1501866736324419584?t=0RmyOaNNs4EcmuLS-78ZQA&s=19

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Mar 10, 2022

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





KitConstantine posted:

The original post is the guy quoting a known Russian propogandist and the videos are from Russia Today.
https://twitter.com/SlickRockWeb/status/1501949211796852742?s=20&t=7bCrCrpldYmg4eaLBQzRYA

Also assuming it's one of 10 a day going all over, then based on the original assessments of force that's enough for 270 grams per soldier. A can of beans is 450 grams.

Thats not even a pint of vodka each!

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.
Anyone asking If leaving AA vehicles behind is normal: it is a sign of an absolute catastrophe.

A short-range AA system like that is big, bulky and very vulnerable, and a super-high priority for the ukrainians. The operators are keenly aware of this, and require constant security and escorts.

So If they get left behind like ”lol sucks to suck” by their buddies GTFOing is a very understandable reaction. The idea that the system was left behind to begin with is the bigger WTF factor, and a symptom of big enough problems that ”loss of an 20m USD asset” is either acceptable bargain for whoever is in charge of that or inevitable to have Any chsnce on completing their mission.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

KitConstantine posted:

The original post is the guy quoting a known Russian propogandist and the videos are from Russia Today.
https://twitter.com/SlickRockWeb/status/1501949211796852742?s=20&t=7bCrCrpldYmg4eaLBQzRYA
Also assuming it's one of 10 a day going all over, then based on the original assessments of force that's enough for 270 grams per soldier. A can of beans is 450 grams.

Edit: original video from that Deano dude's Twitter. If you wanna know what line the Russians are pushing give his timeline a scroll
https://twitter.com/DeanoBeano1/status/1501866736324419584?t=0RmyOaNNs4EcmuLS-78ZQA&s=19

Mmmmmm.... Half a can of beans for field chow.... mmmmmm....

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


CBJSprague24 posted:

Is it me, or have the maps been almost the same since this thing began?

In other words, for Russia, they're not advancing and it's a stalemate at best and the clusterfuck we all know it is at worst?

The people who think Russia isn't as hosed as they appear point to evidence that forward operating bases are being set up for resupply. Their position is the initial assault was expected to be easy, it wasn't, so the Russian forces have stopped in order to bring in reinforcements and set up for a longer war, then big offensives will start again. Obviously no one knows but it seems like a reasonable possibility to me, an idiot on the internet.

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012
No tac markings on the log unit?

Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry
I have been in clusterfuck warzones, and this is at a level that even the sub-Saharan troops I did MTT for would be saying, 'Dude that's messed up!'

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

So how long before Russia starts using chemical weapons? I'm guessing not long.

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.
You mean until russia claims ukrainians are using chemical weapons on themselves?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Me and all my Ukrainian buddies, just about to fire off a chemical attack when we realize the artillery is aimed backward.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Valtonen posted:

You mean until russia claims ukrainians are using chemical weapons on themselves?

It’s probably technically true. Basically every country uses tear gas for police actions despite it being a banned chemical weapon in warfare.

“Technically true” makes for the best kind of propaganda

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Valtonen posted:

You mean until russia claims ukrainians are using chemical weapons on themselves?

STOP GASSING YOURSELF! STOP GASSING YOURSELF!

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

Grand Fromage posted:

The people who think Russia isn't as hosed as they appear point to evidence that forward operating bases are being set up for resupply. Their position is the initial assault was expected to be easy, it wasn't, so the Russian forces have stopped in order to bring in reinforcements and set up for a longer war, then big offensives will start again. Obviously no one knows but it seems like a reasonable possibility to me, an idiot on the internet.

Based on what we have seen from the Russians so far, they could be setting up FOBs simply because they happen to have some guys that do that kind of thing.

I'm betting the trucks with the tents got lucky and arrived, so they started setting up. Nothing so far implies that Russia is actually making decisions based on the reality on the ground.

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

Valtonen posted:

You mean until russia claims ukrainians are using chemical weapons on themselves?

Lol like Putin wouldn’t gas his own troops for a false flag op.

madeintaipei
Jul 13, 2012

CommieGIR posted:

What is normal, even?

Normal is a cycle on a washing machine.

ASAPI
Apr 20, 2007
I invented the line.

If this is true, expect some document dumps soon.

quote:

The Ukrainian Anonymous hacker group has hacked into Roskomnadzor, the Russian federal agency responsible for monitoring and censoring media, and released 360,000 files, the group announced on Twitter on Thursday.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-700940

It might be interesting to see some of the stuff in the dump.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

ASAPI posted:

Based on what we have seen from the Russians so far, they could be setting up FOBs simply because they happen to have some guys that do that kind of thing.

I'm betting the trucks with the tents got lucky and arrived, so they started setting up. Nothing so far implies that Russia is actually making decisions based on the reality on the ground.

Setting up a static encampment of unhardened buildings when your enemy has mobile artillery and armor would be peak Russia.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Arven posted:

Yep. Promising conscripts are funneled to a special NCO bootcamp but are on the same two year term as everyone else.

I'm reading Red Storm Rising and it's comical what Clancy thought the USSR would be capable of in a shooting war.

dude didnt even serve lol

biggest armchair general America ever decorated

That Works
Jul 22, 2006

Every revolution evaporates and leaves behind only the slime of a new bureaucracy


I get the impression that USSR army would easily beat the modern Russian army

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

That Works posted:

I get the impression that USSR army would easily beat the modern Russian army

If you take out joint enablers entirely, it would be pretty scary for the 2022 US Army to have to fight the late 1980s US Army.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





Alan Smithee posted:

dude didnt even serve lol

biggest armchair general America ever decorated

Wait what the gently caress, was he an honorary general or something? Lmao

Natty Ninefingers
Feb 17, 2011

mlmp08 posted:

If you take out joint enablers entirely, it would be pretty scary for the 2022 US Army to have to fight the late 1980s US Army.

joint enablers?

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

Wait what the gently caress, was he an honorary general or something? Lmao

well in the X million copies sold sense of decorated

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Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Mr. Nice! posted:

They're encircling Kyiv! i say for the thousandth time as i slowly turn into a corncob.

russians are encircling kyiv like a belt on a fat guy at an all you can eat buffet

my monitor is off

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