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Which horse film is your favorite? This poll is closed. |
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| Black Beauty |
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2 | 1.06% |
| A Talking Pony!?! |
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4 | 2.13% |
| Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor |
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117 | 62.23% |
| War Horse |
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11 | 5.85% |
| Mr. Hands |
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54 | 28.72% |
| Total: | 188 votes | ||
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Fritz the Horse posted:It doesn't seem like you're going to convince each other of anything. I am fully aware of this, I just find it fascinating to peer into the mind of somebody who (unless they're trolling) genuinely believes zero-COVID to be a viable long-term option. COVID-zero was great while it lasted and even in the World's Most Locked Down City (TM) I'm still glad I spent the last two years here rather in London or New York. It saved tens of thousands of lives and allowed Australians outside the major states to live 2019-esque lives into 2020 and 2021. But going into weeks-long lockdowns at the drop of a hat every time a case leaks in (for the rest of eternity) and keeping the borders closed (for the rest of eternity) is not a reasonable or proportionate response to a virus we now have extremely efficient vaccines for. I can understand why some Americans, deeply bitter about their own government's response, get attached to the idea of zero-COVID. It feels to me more like an emotional response than a considered one, which is why this notion develops that zero-COVID cannot fail, it can only be failed, because Australians and Kiwis "gave up" or had an "attitude" problem. I suspect that if/when China changes strategy, either by choice or because their hand is forced, the response from the perpetual COVID-zero boosters will be that it's the rest of the world's fault for cooking up more contagious variants which kept leaking in - which is precisely what happened in Australia and New Zealand, but nah, we must've just been doing it wrong.
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Mar 11, 2022 00:44
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Anyway, as per Fritz's suggestion, have some news from Hong Kong: https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1501839293643649026
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Mar 11, 2022 00:45
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freebooter posted:Anyway, as per Fritz's suggestion, have some news from Hong Kong:  Wow, I haven't been following covid too closely on account of war but that's a spicy graph for sure. I'm sure some other countries underreported but still, gently caress.
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Mar 11, 2022 01:21
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freebooter posted:Anyway, as per Fritz's suggestion, have some news from Hong Kong: On the other, it's kinda weird to compare HK to entire countries rather than other cities.
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Mar 11, 2022 01:29
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dwarf74 posted:On the one hand - ouch. Yeah, I can't find it in easy-to-read graph format but it's still only 1/3rd of NYC in March/April 2020 and I suspect it would also be lower than some of London's later peaks. On the other hand there's also a very obvious difference between early 2020 and early 2022.
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Mar 11, 2022 01:36
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Also that trend line is still going vertical, who knows when it will peak.
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Mar 11, 2022 01:41
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HK is a powder keg for Covid — large population of ancient people who are unvaccinated and living in very dense and often crummy living conditions. The government wasted two years of Covid Zero. Instead of going all out to vaccinate the elderly and build up healthcare systems to better handle an outbreak, they just assumed they could keep it out forever. And by restricting entry from abroad, they probably reduced the number of healthcare workers and caretakers. That's not to say they shouldn't have been vigilant on border control, but long term it's not enough on its own. The vaccination rates in HK are very deceptive. It's extremely lopsided towards the young. As recently as about a month ago, only 30% of people aged 80+ had received at least a single dose. It is appropriate to compare HK to other countries and not cities. Peru is the only country in that chart that is significantly larger in population than HK. Other small city-state-like places have performed well and get compared to countries. And HK isn't really one city. There's the urban center that most people think of, but Sha Tin, Tai Po, Yuen Long, etc., are districts that are pretty separate and distinct, not to mention all the villages.
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Mar 11, 2022 03:31
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Smeef posted:It is appropriate to compare HK to other countries and not cities. Peru is the only country in that chart that is significantly larger in population than HK. Other small city-state-like places have performed well and get compared to countries. And HK isn't really one city. There's the urban center that most people think of, but Sha Tin, Tai Po, Yuen Long, etc., are districts that are pretty separate and distinct, not to mention all the villages.  If Hong Kong is of comparable size and populationas NYC isn't that a fair comparison to make? Its about 50% bigger than NYC proper and a little less populous, 7.5M compared to 8.5M, but it seems to be more similar to NYC than it is to New York State or the United States as a whole?
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Mar 11, 2022 04:36
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BlueBlazer posted:Hey Vox, just want to pop in and say thanks for doing this leg work. Thank you. I need to get this out now, before I can actually finish the antivaxx writeups, because it's time-sensitive. There's something quietly developing that can kneecap the antivaxx movement, and US goons who are reading this post can make it happen. 1. The root motivation for a lot of the antivaxx movement that people are selling vaccine "alternatives", particularly dietary supplements. Even if they're not immediately selling supplements as covid "cures", if you dig back into their funding, selling alternatives is where their money often comes from. This is the biggest driver for antivaxxers, going all the way back to the invention of vaccines. 2. Dietary supplements are an incentive and a funding source for the right wing. Mercola, Alex Jones, hell, the entire alt-right movement was heavily based in selling dietary supplements when it started out. Trump was going to go hard into supplements if he lost the 2016 election. These people drove, politicized, and intensified the entire antivaxx movement during COVID 19 because they were already in the area, making money, with fraudulent supplement products. Supplement sales have been a driver for the lunatic fringe for their entire existence. 3. Mandatory Product Listing can begin bringing these groups to heel. Mandatory Product Listing (or MPL if you're hip) is a proposed new requirement, quietly being developed for several years, under which supplement companies have to send FDA their product label before it can go on the market. The label goes into a public database, and FDA can instantly seize and go after supplements that aren't in that database. There are details and nuances, but the short version is MPL will let FDA crush fake Covid cures and other scam products much, much faster. For this to happen, Congress will have to change existing law. 4. MPL has significant support. MPL has support from the main supplement industry trade group, as well as from Republican boosters. This is because it will shut down the "fringe" companies and smaller competitors. It will also remove one of the main incentives companies have to promote antivaxx. FDA and public health groups are also in favor of it. It will have a clear path into law later this year, if members of the Senate think it should be. Senate offices are now counting calls they get about MPL. Literally a handful of calls could shift their positions, regardless of whether they're Republicans or Democrats. If you call your senator's office, say you're a constituent, and that you support mandatory product listing for dietary supplements, it could actually push this over the line (especially if they're on the health committee, which gets first bite at all this). MPL would kill a huge part of the financial incentive for the antivaxx movement (and also, long term, have many other benefits). Passage of MPL, even now, would impact vaccination rates. Please consider calling your senators' offices. I am happy to provide further details and talking points to reach your senators, D or R. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 05:11 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 04:46
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NYC: 8.5 million people, so the 800 deaths line is 94/million and the 200 line is 24/million
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Mar 11, 2022 05:25
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Smeef posted:It is appropriate to compare HK to other countries and not cities. Peru is the only country in that chart that is significantly larger in population than HK. Other small city-state-like places have performed well and get compared to countries. And HK isn't really one city. There's the urban center that most people think of, but Sha Tin, Tai Po, Yuen Long, etc., are districts that are pretty separate and distinct, not to mention all the villages.
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Mar 11, 2022 07:13
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Discendo Vox posted:Good stuff on MPL 1. Is there a particular bill (or bills) that we can tell staffers to support? 2. Is there language that should - or should not - be added to the bill? 3. I'll bite on talking points: should constituents mention the antivaxx and/or right-wing fringe angle? What else should/shouldn't constituents mention in their email to Senators? My own comments (as one who routinely communicates with congressional staffers): 1. Be succinct. Staffers have limited time and get dozens (sometimes hundreds) of requests per day. Be short, sweet, to the point. 2. Have an "ask." It's one thing to say, "this sucks, you should fix it!" It's another to say, "this sucks, here is how you can fix it." That's why I asked about whether there was a bill to support, and what language you would like to see in it. 3. Know your audience. Mitt Romney represents Utah, and supplements are BIG there (thank you, Orrin Hatch). DoTERRA a CRN member (https://www.crnusa.org/membership/responsible-its-our-middle-name), and there must be more. Your Senator will care more if you can tell them "look, [company] is in our state, they support this." Kansas goons, get on it: both of your Senators are on the HELP committee (food manufacturing is pretty big there, too: https://www.kansascommerce.gov/industry/food-processing/).
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Mar 11, 2022 13:53
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cunningham posted:Thanks for this - I have a couple questions that could help others when they talk to their Senators: 1. No, nothing public that I'm aware of - but senate staffers will be able to know what it is. What people should say is that they "read online about" a mandatory public listing for dietary supplements. It's okay/good to acknowledge that you don't know much about the subject, but that you still cared enough to call, and that it's important to you. 2. Nothing's public, so the main thing is to just say you want a mandated, comprehensive public supplement database. 3. Emails will do much less than calls, for most Senate offices. First, always say you use supplements, and you want to feel like they're safe. If the senator is republican, talk about creating a "stable, free market for supplements made here in America" and in particular, say that you are always worried about foreign drugs (you can say Chinese or Russian, if you want) getting imported and dumped on the market as supplements (this is a big problem and MPL would indeed make it much easier for FDA to stop). If they're liberal, say you want a more transparent market or want to be able to know what you're taking is legal. If the Senator is a dem, it may be effective to say that you know there are a lot of fake covid cures labeled as supplements, and you think this could help clean up the market. More specifics vary by senate office. As cunningham notes, it's good to know your audience. cunningham posted:My own comments (as one who routinely communicates with congressional staffers): This is also very good advice. Mentioning that it would probably help supplement companies in the state is a good idea. I do not know doterra's position on MPL; it's possible they're opposed to it (though I'd be surprised). Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 16:12 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 15:25
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Discendo Vox posted:Thank you. I need to get this out now, before I can actually finish the antivaxx writeups, because it's time-sensitive. Thanks for this - I have very strong feelings about the supplement industry in general, and turns out my senator is the chair. I'll contact her office.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:04
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Has there been any indication as to when the vaccine will be fully approved for kids 5-11? That is apparently the line for someone close to me as to when they’ll be OK with it.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:48
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Main Paineframe posted:If that article is reliable, then it actually worked out the opposite: since covid-zero meant there was very little chance of catching COVID, everyone dragged their feet on vaccination because they were concerned about the side effects of jabs. Without an imminent risk of COVID, vaccination wasn't seen as a pressing issue, and people all over the system sat on their hands nitpicking about vaccine safety and waiting to see how things went. Eh, fixing nursing homes is never happening, because it would mean making it so they aren't literal hell on earth capitalism where your elderly family member gets dropped off to die while 1 rn takes care of 72 patients. Nursing homes are literally evil, and a skilled nursing home is only skilled at killing people. Ltachs are worse unless you basically pay loving criminal money for it.
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Mar 11, 2022 22:44
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Good news for individuals: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1501886435145699328 Though as I'm sure everyone here already knows, higher infectivity = higher deaths anyway. But that's nothing new. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1501886458969403396
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Mar 11, 2022 23:43
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freebooter posted:Anyway, as per Fritz's suggestion, have some news from Hong Kong: https://twitter.com/danwwang/status/1502255518185713664 https://twitter.com/Theophite/status/1502388305693839361 I don't know who the second guy is, but the first one is a Shanghai resident and every year he writes long articles about the state of affairs in various parts of China.
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Mar 11, 2022 23:49
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Then why did you post it? Do you agree? Why?
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Mar 12, 2022 00:05
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Has China been using their covid free time to stick everyone they can reach with vaccines or have they Hong Konged it and not bothered
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Mar 12, 2022 00:16
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Alctel posted:Has China been using their covid free time to stick everyone they can reach with vaccines or have they Hong Konged it and not bothered Our World in Data states that 87.4% of China's population has received at least 2 doses, which is great! The potential problem is that all of those doses are their home grown vaccines which isn't as effective as mRNA ones. A small study showed that 3 doses of China's vaccines are about as effective as 2 doses of mRNA vaccines against Omicron. In other words, should protect well against severe disease and death, but not very well against infection or mild disease.
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Mar 12, 2022 00:49
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Theophite has been making a habit of predicting the collapse of COVID zero any day now for some time
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Mar 12, 2022 11:02
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China's vaxx rate is a fair amount better than Hong Kong's in their vulnerable populations if I'm recalling correctly. HK's problem is that they specifically WEREN'T using the time Zero COVID bought them to vaccinate everyone and their dog. Their elderly population vaccination rate is really not good and that's the demo COVID is going through like a buzzsaw there.
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Mar 12, 2022 22:32
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Fabricated posted:China's vaxx rate is a fair amount better than Hong Kong's in their vulnerable populations if I'm recalling correctly. how did Hong Kong get itself in this situation?
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Mar 13, 2022 00:37
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Freezer posted:how did Hong Kong get itself in this situation? https://twitter.com/kjoules/status/1502620801052590080?s=20&t=KM6XrDLUxvCyRbIDD8w7Ew https://twitter.com/wanderer_jasnah/status/1502752906679885835?s=20&t=KM6XrDLUxvCyRbIDD8w7Ew
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Mar 13, 2022 02:47
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Freezer posted:how did Hong Kong get itself in this situation? There was a lot of misinfo, disinfo, and general distrust of both the mainland government and 'Western' medicine ("it's not made for Chinese genes!"). Tabloids boosted every story that could be spun as vaccines being dangerous. It's not quite the same in character or intensity as the kind of anti-vaxx sentiment seen in the US, but it's significant. Policies didn't help. Paradoxically, the government seemed too sensitive to the elderly population and didn't want to piss them off by pushing vaccines more aggressively. Some of the Covid Zero communications likewise were clumsy and created this misbelief that because there would never be Covid here, vaccination and a day of feeling crummy was unnecessary. A lot of the systems were very tech-dependent, too, and it seems service designers forgot that 95-year-olds aren't the best demo for smartphones. Voluntary testing combined with mandatory quarantine in a lovely camp did not incentivize much public willingness either. It also seemed like the pressure to perform and maintain Covid Zero incentivized authorities to hide problems and play the blame game. It was gweilos. It was Indians. It was a 30-day incubation period. It was hamsters. Now we're in this absurd situation where people are getting fined 5000 HKD for lowering their mask in a country park or walking outside in a group of 3, yet restaurants and bars are full of people until 6pm, because we all know that Covid only comes out at night. I saw a guy yesterday leaning out the door of a bar to smoke a cigar, and a police van was parked a few meters away walking around to harass Filipino and Indonesian domestic workers trying to have picnics.
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Mar 13, 2022 03:12
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Fabricated posted:I don't know enough about the political/cultural stuff there to know if there's an anti-vaxx sentiment or if it's just bad government planning or what- seriously. But it does seem to clearly be a result of not vaxxing the older population. What the gently caress? Why is the vaxx rate for 80+ basically zero until this year? Were they explicitly forbidden from getting vaxxed? There's no loving way elderly HK residents were unanimously against vaccination.
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Mar 13, 2022 03:14
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HolHorsejob posted:What the gently caress? Why is the vaxx rate for 80+ basically zero until this year? Were they explicitly forbidden from getting vaxxed? There's no loving way elderly HK residents were unanimously against vaccination. I think you're mixing up the 3-11 and 80+ lines. The 3-11 is the one that started this year, but it was able to shoot up above the 80+ rate in no time.
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Mar 13, 2022 03:40
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Fabricated posted:I don't know enough about the political/cultural stuff there to know if there's an anti-vaxx sentiment or if it's just bad government planning or what- seriously. But it does seem to clearly be a result of not vaxxing the older population.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:42
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Keep in mind that virtually all elderly in HK live in very close quarters, either in multi-generation apartments (imagine a 500sqft apartment with 2 grandparents, 2 parents, 2 kids, and a live-in maid) or elderly care homes where they basically take a floor or two of an apartment building and convert it into small rooms and communal spaces like an American-style college dorm. It makes American nursing homes and retirement communities look like the Mongolian steppe in terms of density and close human interactions. At this point it's hard to imagine how any of the elderly don't get exposed soon.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:51
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What the hell? Where is this low willingness to vaccinate coming from? Do these old people want to die?
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Mar 13, 2022 11:27
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cant cook creole bream posted:What the hell? Where is this low willingness to vaccinate coming from? Do these old people want to die? Based on the old folks living in my building, about half are the most stubborn people I've ever met, and the other half are so old that they look like Incan mummies and just get pushed around in wheelchairs by their caretakers. There are a few exceptions, like one old lady who practices sword fighting in the park with an actual metal sword, another who is the neighborhood recycling superhero and can detect a discarded cardboard box from 5 blocks away, and one old man who carries around a bird in a cage and used to play a wood flute in scenic places before masking went into effect.
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Mar 13, 2022 11:50
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Smeef posted:one old man who carries around a bird in a cage and used to play a wood flute in scenic places before masking went into effect.
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Mar 13, 2022 15:25
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Shenzhen is locked down for a week to try and get covid under control (I hope it works) and Shanghai whether or not numbers are going up up uppity up in shanghai residents are already acting like they are and flights and traffic are getting blocked*. Im hoping these measures work, but the current rumor is that the new strain is 80% asymptomatic with incubation periods over 2 weeks so the current methods aren't strong enough. *Someone I vaguely know went yo shangahi to dump his girlfriend and is now trapped with her unable to go home.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:27
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Smeef posted:Now we're in this absurd situation where people are getting fined 5000 HKD for lowering their mask in a country park or walking outside in a group of 3, yet restaurants and bars are full of people until 6pm, because we all know that Covid only comes out at night. I saw a guy yesterday leaning out the door of a bar to smoke a cigar, and a police van was parked a few meters away walking around to harass Filipino and Indonesian domestic workers trying to have picnics. I vaguely thought HK was in lockdown by now. Is there a reason why HK didn't enter lockdown a while ago, when the mainland govt has no compunctions about it? Even if they let it spiral out of control because of hubris at their track record of stamping out earlier infections without lockdowns (Berejiklian Syndrome) I would've thought sometime in the past few weeks would've been the time to do it simply out of sheer infection and death rates.
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Mar 14, 2022 08:11
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freebooter posted:I vaguely thought HK was in lockdown by now. Is there a reason why HK didn't enter lockdown a while ago, when the mainland govt has no compunctions about it? Even if they let it spiral out of control because of hubris at their track record of stamping out earlier infections without lockdowns (Berejiklian Syndrome) I would've thought sometime in the past few weeks would've been the time to do it simply out of sheer infection and death rates. They dragged their feet until it became impossible... and are still being mealy mouthed about it. I think I saw some earlier estimates that even if it went into full-on lockdown, it would take way longer to get back under control due to the levels it's at. It really takes a snap decision very early on. I also think HK just doesn't have the infrastructure, systems, and capacity to pull off that kind of lockdown. A lot of the housing is not designed for isolation. It's designed for sleeping and taking a poo poo, and then spending the rest of the time outside. A lot of residents are elderly and require care from family who live elsewhere, etc. HK can't bring in as many healthcare workers to boost capacity the way the mainland can. There are well coordinated residential committees with more granular info on conditions. Neighborhoods are more chaotic. A lot of these factors also make me think a full-on lockdown may not work that well with omicron, given its extreme transmissibility. I live in a good, new building and can smell my neighbors' cooking from every direction. In my old building, I could hear them switch on lights. Given that there have been cases of transmission down hallways in quarantine hotels, I'd expect some of these old estates to have outcomes more like cruise ships. And that's kinda what happened when this wave started. They locked down a few estates that had cases, but cases just exploded in those estates.
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Mar 14, 2022 08:49
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Barudak posted:*Someone I vaguely know went yo shangahi to dump his girlfriend and is now trapped with her unable to go home. lol owned this is the opposite of that lady who got trapped at some dude's house on what was going to be their first date and they ended up engaged by the time lockdown lifted
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Mar 14, 2022 14:22
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Smeef posted:They dragged their feet until it became impossible... and are still being mealy mouthed about it. I think I saw some earlier estimates that even if it went into full-on lockdown, it would take way longer to get back under control due to the levels it's at. It really takes a snap decision very early on. Thanks, interesting. I would say the second line of reasoning sounds more plausible than the first, because "back under control" will probably never happen now but a lockdown is still worth doing if your hospital system is collapsing under the strain. Alternatively as a stick to force the population to get vaccinated - the lifting of the Australian lockdowns after Delta forced us to relinquish COVID-zero was tied to vaccination thresholds - but it doesn't seem like HK's stubborn elderly would care whether they're in permanent lockdown or not. It also doesn't bode well for what might come next in mainland China, both in terms of their own potential elderly time bomb and the effects much more widespread lockdowns might have on the global economy: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420727856439304 https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1503202338340757516
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Mar 15, 2022 00:41
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freebooter posted:I'm sorry you live in a country that blundered its response in every conceivable way, got a million people killed, is so politically bisected that a third of the population won't take the free miracle vaccine the government invented, and that as a result you've decided to fixate on the most harsh and extreme COVID-containment measures long past the point where they meet a cost-benefit analysis, but I don't see why I or any other Australian should give any more credence to that than I do to the unhinged people ranting on street corners. Denmark has been absolutely devastated by COVID. Ironic, since some here vehemently argued against proactive measures in favor of reactive measures. A country giving up, as Australia has, does not spare them the ongoing disabling and deadly effects of COVID waves. Smeef posted:HK is a powder keg for Covid — large population of ancient people who are unvaccinated and living in very dense and often crummy living conditions. The huge amount of misinformation about COVID vaccines did not help Hong Kong and they should've more tightly controlled their media in order to prevent. Going forward, I can only hope that there will be changes along those lines. freebooter posted:It also doesn't bode well for what might come next in mainland China, both in terms of their own potential elderly time bomb and the effects much more widespread lockdowns might have on the global economy: The amount of unvaccinated elderly in mainland China should prompt them to pressure their populace into taking the vaccine, but it is remarkable that they've done such a tremendous job and it is only 15 million. I am far more optimistic about what the mainland can do about the recent outbreak there, because the party has tighter controls over response.
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Mar 15, 2022 02:10
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Judakel posted:Denmark has been absolutely devastated by COVID. Ironic, since some here vehemently argued against proactive measures in favor of reactive measures. A country giving up, as Australia has, does not spare them the ongoing disabling and deadly effects of COVID waves. Do you have any proof for any of what your posting or are you just going to stick with telling people in the countries you keep attacking that they don't understand covid and only you know the best ways to combat it, and that china is the absolute gold standard we all should strive for (ignoring that china's vaccine isn't as effective, they have slowboated the mRNA vaccine because it's not there's, and actively aren't as vaccinated as they could be) Like you just keep repeating the exact same statements and yelling at anyone that tries to engage that they don't know anything but you have the answers.
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Mar 15, 2022 07:52
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