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Mar 11, 2022 13:58
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KitConstantine posted:A Russian scholar pointed out that bit of the Putin conversation today that seems to have been overlooked "Reinforcements to its western border" also brings to mind a certain 1300 kilometre long non-NATO western border which Russia has with Finland Finland needs to join NATO like yesterday, or at the very least pursue MNNA status or really anything at all that could put NATO or US troops there officially, to deter Putin. Yeah I know y'all will say "surely he won't be dumb enough to try to invade Finland", you mean, just like he wasn't dumb enough to actually invade Ukraine? 
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Mar 11, 2022 14:03
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Willo567 posted:There was intelligence that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine since December. I'm being honest here, I didn't believe that intelligence, I thought it was dumb standard Russia/US saber rattling. I'm not alone, you can find plenty of people willing to admit they thought the imminent invasion was histrionics and we were wrong. Our base assumptions - the Russian government are sane, they were already in a great position, US intelligence is made up of dogbrained Havana syndrome hysterics and corrupt ghouls - turned out to be incorrect. My point is, having been wrong about all that, what else might I be wrong about? I'm not willing to throw out the idea of Putin bombing Poland just because it doesn't make sense. None of this makes sense.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:07
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jaete posted:"Reinforcements to its western border" also brings to mind a certain 1300 kilometre long non-NATO western border which Russia has with Finland maybe. he is dumb and probably desperate enough too. TulliusCicero posted:If Putin and his staff really think that opening a second front in the Baltics, sending foreign legion bullshit to Ukraine, and putting more troops on the border with the West is remotely a good plan then he's actually a worse strategist somehow than a dementia ridden Hitler. idk if he will "open a front" per say, but i do think he is gonna try to put some armies on some boarders as a gently caress you threat. maybe go after finland.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:10
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Another one (reportedly) bites the dust! https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1502260149163073539?t=XdrRV_zn4FHsngZikFonEw&s=19 They should really stop having generals die, it seems like a bad idea!
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Mar 11, 2022 14:11
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jaete posted:"Reinforcements to its western border" also brings to mind a certain 1300 kilometre long non-NATO western border which Russia has with Finland Attacking Finland would be certifiably insane, especially now while Ukraine is already giving them a run for their money. I agree with the assessment that if these plans are being seriously considered Russia is no longer a remotely rational actor.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:11
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Is there any Russian interest in Transnistria beyond “gently caress with Moldova”. It’s seems to be a pathetically small piece of land.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:14
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Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502253590815154179?t=sDdiyTo1uT5vLNt1Ljf3UQ&s=19 I mean Facebook is lovely and evil, but terrorists?
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Mar 11, 2022 14:14
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KitConstantine posted:Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization When they're right they're right
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Mar 11, 2022 14:15
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Often Abbreviated posted:I'm being honest here, I didn't believe that intelligence, I thought it was dumb standard Russia/US saber rattling. I'm not alone, you can find plenty of people willing to admit they thought the imminent invasion was histrionics and we were wrong. Our base assumptions - the Russian government are sane, they were already in a great position, US intelligence is made up of dogbrained Havana syndrome hysterics and corrupt ghouls - turned out to be incorrect. I'm not talking about some posters on a dead comedy forum, I'm talking about actual foreign intelligence determining Russia's plans. Until there's intelligence that Russia's about to invade Finland and Poland I would not rely on a random Twitter account on what Russia/Putin may do next, especially since said Twitter account thinks they're about to deploy tactical nukes https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1502234302066614272
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Mar 11, 2022 14:16
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TulliusCicero posted:Attacking Finland would be certifiably insane, especially now while Ukraine is already giving them a run for their money. Finland is in the EU so that would be a straight up war with everybody in the EU. There's no way they're that stupid.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:17
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Often Abbreviated posted:Six weeks ago I would have said the same about attacking Ukraine. Russian leadership may not be making the smartest decisions. Invading Ukraine and starting WW3 are two completely different levels of dumb decision. One is dumb but believable, and we even had intelligence saying this could happen for months in advance. The other is nonsense and there are no indications it will happen besides vague, possibly poorly translated tweets from an anonymous source.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:17
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TulliusCicero posted:Attacking Finland would be certifiably insane, especially now while Ukraine is already giving them a run for their money. He may be actually trying to drag nato into the war for purely domestic reasons. He might think it easier to get Russians into a war mentality of “these sacrifices are for the nation” if they’re fighting the US directly instead of Ukrainian family members.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:17
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alex314 posted:Motivation is one thing, but even if they were on a holy crusade to remove "drugged out nazis" all those dudes are useful for in the offensive is manning some checkpoints or maybe helping with logistics. Person that sent them to screen armoured spearheads should be hanged for warcrimes. I have no problems with volunteers helping themselves to some logistics, I'll confess.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:18
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Failed Imagineer posted:https://twitter.com/OrthoTater/status/1502097128738500610?t=vb5lTDdx-FEnub9jSd8FMw&s=19 Knowing the original song, that's quite a funny take on it.  
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Mar 11, 2022 14:21
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KitConstantine posted:They should really stop having generals die, it seems like a bad idea! Seems like a perfectly fine idea to me...
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Mar 11, 2022 14:21
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KitConstantine posted:Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization I wonder if this will allow them to conduct some cyber attacks on meta. They might just see this as the justification.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:21
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Is there any Russian interest in Transnistria beyond “gently caress with Moldova”. It’s seems to be a pathetically small piece of land. It was originally about "keep Moldova from owning a shitload of military equipment we'd like to keep and can't easily move out of our crumbling empire". Nowadays the bases are a non issue and it's just about loving over Moldova and having a totally-not-Russia slum to gently caress with the region from.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:21
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fez_machine posted:Again that's defining sanctions working in terms of change in government or internal policy (which the only successful example I can think of is South Africa). American financial sanctions against the UK were pretty successful in 1956: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis#Financial_pressure The Suez crisis could be a pretty reasonable analogy for current events. A declining empire decides to try pull of one last gamble while it still can. It uses a weak pretext of anti-fascism to make a bold deployment of paratroops. The world says ‘no, that is clearly an imperialist adventure’. Internal propaganda is unable to bridge the gap between claims and reality. Those responsible get regime-changed. Main difference is that the 1950s Anglo-French armies were actually logistically competent and uncorrupt, so the military side of things was actually successful. Plus regime change in the UK is rather more polite than in Russia, with Anthony Eden surviving until the 1970s without even having to go into exile.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:22
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KitConstantine posted:Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization Yes. It’s existence terrorizes me.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:22
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KitConstantine posted:Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization *Insert The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point here*
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Mar 11, 2022 14:23
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TulliusCicero posted:If Putin and his staff really think that opening a second front in the Baltics, sending foreign legion bullshit to Ukraine, and putting more troops on the border with the West is remotely a good plan then he's actually a worse strategist somehow than a dementia ridden Hitler. The problem is that Russia is entering the Cool Zone, unfortunately. Everyone in charge there right now has to be making GBS threads bricks and there's no clear exit path or escape for any of them that doesn't get a lot worse before it even begins to get better. There's a reason that *everyone* who can leave Russia right now is doing so. Who knows what the gently caress they're going to do or what's gonna happen there over the next few months. Not gonna be pretty at all and all sorts of crazy poo poo might go down because they're all dumb and panicking with bad information.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:24
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My nipples burst with delight at the thought of 16.000 Syrian fighters stuck in a constantly freezing and thawing radioactive pine forrest outside of Kyiv, trying to coordinate a non-existing supply line via open commercial grade short-wave radios in a language they don’t speak. See also: Chechens in Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:28
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At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin does use a nuclear weapon. Russia has been consistently embarrassed during this war and is now looking weak. What better way to remind other countries that whatever you may think about Russia's strategy and logistics, they still have the nukes. I'm not even sure if the West would respond militarily to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:29
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Willo567 posted:I'm not talking about some posters on a dead comedy forum, I'm talking about actual foreign intelligence determining Russia's plans. His interpretation about the nukes may be wrong but the statement about building up Russian troops at the western border is taken straight from this readout of a meeting Putin had with his Security Council http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67960 Translated quote: quote:[Shiogu]
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Mar 11, 2022 14:29
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Putin wants to blame Nato, but he doesn't actually wants to fight it. Next to civil unrest on a level he can't control getting dirty with Nato is the only way he could actually get deposed and that's something he wants to avoid at all cost.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:29
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small butter posted:At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Putin does use a nuclear weapon. Russia has been consistently embarrassed during this war and is now looking weak. What better way to remind other countries that whatever you may think about Russia's strategy and logistics, they still have the nukes. I'm not even sure if the West would respond militarily to a nuclear attack on Ukraine. If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine then Russia eats the fallout.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:29
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KitConstantine posted:They should really stop having generals die, it seems like a bad idea!
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Mar 11, 2022 14:30
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Charlz Guybon posted:That supposed "FBS" source has leaked more and I think it's worth taking a look. I'm searching for the most appropriate smiley. Maybe  or  or 
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Mar 11, 2022 14:30
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TulliusCicero posted:Attacking Finland would be certifiably insane, especially now while Ukraine is already giving them a run for their money. There’s a logic to “we we aren’t going to get any more sanctioned might as well go for it.”
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Mar 11, 2022 14:32
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KitConstantine posted:I mean Facebook is lovely and evil, but terrorists? Oh the Deutsche Bank front, the reason given for not leaving: “We’re there to support our clients. And so, for practical purposes, that isn’t an option that’s available to us. Nor would it be the right thing to do in terms of managing those client relationships and helping them to manage their situation,” James von Moltke (CFO). Also "In an announcement released Wednesday, the bank said that included gross loan exposure to Russia of $1.4 billion euros ($1.55 billion), or 0.3% of its total loan book." lol. That might technically be true, but like gently caress that's the actual amount of russian cash they have. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/deutsche-bank-says-not-practical-to-exit-russia-business.html
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Mar 11, 2022 14:35
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jaete posted:"Reinforcements to its western border" also brings to mind a certain 1300 kilometre long non-NATO western border which Russia has with Finland I think he'd fare a lot worse than in Ukraine if he tried. But still, lets resurrect Mannerheim, just in case.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This thread absolutely doesn’t allow calling for someone to shoot Putin. I mean, on this page someone said some russian generals died and someone responded "that seems fine". Something that would be HORRIFYING to say about any other sort of group. But isn't horrifying because it's war and it's enemy generals. Facebook is just saying "no dumbass, don't click report for violence and racism on something like that, no we aren't going to treat it the same as someone saying 'good' on a news story about jews dying, it's a different thing and you know it" not allowing some sort of "hate speech".
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Mar 11, 2022 14:38
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KitConstantine posted:Russia isn't just banning Facebook/instagram/whatsapp, they're declaring the parent company Meta a terrorist organization Emotional and psychological terrorists. And they did help do a genocide.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:39
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small butter posted:I'm not even sure if the West would respond militarily to a nuclear attack on Ukraine. China and pretty much every other country in the world would cut them off completely. plenty of countries like dealing with corrupt dictators, no one wants to deal with the crazy gently caress who literally pressed the button to start world war 3. Pretty sure no matter what bunker the coward hid himself someone would in russia would see putin dead in the hour, no matter how chicken poo poo they normally are.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:43
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Ataxerxes posted:He is in a strange posture, like he leans at the table to stop his right hand from shaking. There was a video of him meeting Lukashenka just before the war, where jis right hand was shaking strangely. Maybe the rumours of Parkinson's are true. Don't tell me he is copying his rolemodel down to the last detail!  That's some dedication.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:44
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Caros posted:I mean, I think that is what the mobile crematoriums were for, wasn't it?  gay picnic defence posted:The only issue is that it needs to be a massive screen.
Smokeless gunpowder dramatically changed the battlefield, not because bullets were stronger, but because they fundamentally altered the battlefield by making things visible which had hitherto been hidden. The incremental changes to modern, man-portable ATGMs may end up having a similarly outsized effect. I don't know, though: Javelins are bulky and heavy. The mud has also prevented Russian mechanized forces from doing much more than driving down a narrow and predictable avenue of approach. The battlespace is kind of ideal from an anti-armor perspective at the moment. That said, I haven't seen swarms of infantry out and about, so I think a lot of Russian armor losses are attributable to bad tactics and an unprofessional officer corps. Telsa Cola posted:What do you think the effective fire range of an abrams is? This goes out to everyone also discussing how 2km Javelin range is a deal breaker. Fun fact: the US Abrams originally envisioned using an M2 .50 caliber machinegun as its coax. Tuxedo Gin posted:The Abrams is 62 tons.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:45
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Wuxi posted:Putin wants to blame Nato, but he doesn't actually wants to fight it. Next to civil unrest on a level he can't control getting dirty with Nato is the only way he could actually get deposed and that's something he wants to avoid at all cost. my guess is if he feels backed in, he will raid finland or some other country in some dumb hope of masculinity. but most likely. i think he will do a bunch of border build ups. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 14:46
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Willo567 posted:I'm not talking about some posters on a dead comedy forum, I'm talking about actual foreign intelligence determining Russia's plans. Yeah, the proliferation of no name Twitter accounts spreading obvious bullshit under the guise of iNtEl (or unsourced fragments of sensationalist information of any sort) is such a terrible obstacle to actually learning about the conflict.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:47
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dr_rat posted:China and pretty much every other country in the world would cut them off completely. plenty of countries like dealing with corrupt dictators, no one wants to deal with the crazy gently caress who literally pressed the button to start world war 3. Where is that Shadow President gif that the forums love so much ik edit: 
Somebody fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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