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are these new conscripts or the blown to poo poo ones? https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1502317483776217099 also this shitshow.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:19
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DutchDupe posted:I'm sure they would send unlimited weapons, supplies, and money. Questioning whether the EU will go to war, which inevitably drags in the USA and UK, and meaning war between several nuclear powers, I don't think is delusional though. If they haven't stated they'd defend Finland, which it doesn't appear to be, then I'm not going to claim to know "of course" it will happen. If Russia actually attacks Finnland, I think all the talk about not going to war for fear of escalating is pretty much out of the window, because where will Russia stop? Would they take over Sweden as well? Whether the US would get involved is another question, probably not.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:19
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Fame Douglas posted:If Russia actually attacks Finnland, I think all the talk about not going to war for fear of escalating is pretty much out of the window, because where will Russia stop? Would they take over Sweden as well? yeah. like i am unsure if they do attack finland at this point, but after the last few weeks i wouldnt be shocked by anything russia does.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:21
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I'm not to sure this guy is the most up to date on his news. https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1502314821286518786
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Mar 11, 2022 17:22
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steinrokkan posted:Dog owners are capable of feeling affection towards the animal. Putin probably has to fight the impulse to spit in Batka's face and shove him to the ground every time he sees him. I apologise for comparing doggo to Batka. 
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Mar 11, 2022 17:23
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. like i am unsure if they do attack finland at this point, but after the last few weeks i wouldnt be shocked by anything russia does. St Petersburg has a museum with T-34s, those will go to Finland for a reunion.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:23
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e: nm, misread miles and km
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Mar 11, 2022 17:24
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I took a screenshot of this from Google Maps:  I would speculate baselessly that they will continue to advance until they enter the outskirts of the urban area of Kyiv, where you would presume they stop and wait for either the completion of the encirclement or the eastern forces to make a similar advancement.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:25
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Seriously, all this talk of Russia attacking Finland is absurd. It's clancychat every bit as any talk about article 5.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:I took a screenshot of this from Google Maps: i sorta suspect this stuff is somewhat out of date, but i can believe that they are either stalled out or being held back around kyiv but slowly inching foward.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:28
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PederP posted:Seriously, all this talk of Russia attacking Finland is absurd. It's clancychat every bit as any talk about article 5. All the clancychat/new theater stuff makes me think of people getting bored of a new video game and clamoring for DLC two weeks after release.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:30
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i sorta suspect this stuff is somewhat out of date, but i can believe that they are either stalled out or being held back around kyiv but slowly inching foward. It's also meaningless data as moving 10 miles over a highway to reach city limits is not the same as moving even ONE mile inside city limits in urban warfare. It will get exponentially harder with each mile left.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:31
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200 sorties doesn't sound great.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:31
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:200 sorties doesn't sound great. two weeks after the start of an invasion by a nation which, on paper, has the ability to achieve air superiority? 200 sorties daily is pretty good
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Mar 11, 2022 17:32
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:200 sorties doesn't sound great. Honestly I expected a lot fewer Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:two weeks after the start of an invasion by a nation which, on paper, has the ability to achieve air superiority? 200 sorties daily is pretty good That's the Russians.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:33
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:200 sorties doesn't sound great. How much meth is required to stay awake for that many sorties?
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Mar 11, 2022 17:33
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:two weeks after the start of an invasion by a nation which, on paper, has the ability to achieve air superiority? 200 sorties daily is pretty good Right I meant not great for Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:34
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Rad Russian posted:It's also meaningless data as moving 10 miles over a highway to reach city limits is not the same as moving even ONE mile inside city limits in urban warfare. plus the ukrainians keep either loving up their rear supplies or almost encircling various invasions prongs
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Mar 11, 2022 17:34
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TheRat posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1502313605492092934 What I am gathering is that nobody knows what the gently caress the Russian troops are doing near Kiev, probably including the troops themselves.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:34
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:two weeks after the start of an invasion by a nation which, on paper, has the ability to achieve air superiority? 200 sorties daily is pretty good Pretty good for whom? Ukraine. During the invasion of Iraq, coalition forces were running over 2,000 air sorties per day. For a country with an Air Force as large as Russia, who on paper should have been able to completely overwhelm Ukraine in the air, 200 sorties a day is terrible.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:35
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If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:36
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TheRat posted:That's the Russians. whoops, i misread that as 200 daily by ukraine 200 sorties daily from the russians is probably constrained by maintenance as much as ukrainian AA. or bad weather/lack of sensors Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. they should have had air superiority on day 1 if they're still posturing as a fully competent and well equipped military Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 17:37
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So some more about Belarus - Stratcom Ukraine posted this https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1502317147959218180?t=J_nCII9qBluoGNtmtwxo4A&s=19 Sounds more and more like Intel the Ukrainians received somewhere And a lot of machinery is getting moved around the Belarusian border https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1502313736182407183?t=H9Jz3Jssg85F4Tkw2IjATQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1502304284892925955?t=PUZagcW56o6izN0I3XQkxQ&s=19 I guess we'll find out at 21:00 Ukraine time if the reports of mutiny were true
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Mar 11, 2022 17:37
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. Most of their sorties are likely high altitude craft dropping guided munitions or cruise missiles. Its unlikely that Ukraine can reach them, and some of them are likely flying well outside of the range of ground air defense systems.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:38
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. Yeah superiority but not dominance yet it sounds like.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:38
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. No. Really. This is not the case. 2,000 sorties per day is what the United States and Great Britain flew over Iraq in 2003 at the start of the Second Gulf War. Edit And pay attention to the verbiage. It’s not 200 sorties a day over Ukraine. It’s 200 sorties a day near Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:38
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. Not according to the US DoD https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1502317896973930514?t=KijU8_TwqF15ZYCB50zDbA&s=19 https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1502319684368142338?t=Re9KyTtMQ4T2RGeH6_9xrA&s=19 (Poster is the pentagon editor at Aviation week. Plane guy)
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Mar 11, 2022 17:39
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https://twitter.com/Matt_Schrader_/status/1502235865980063751 on the other hand, North Korea champs at the bit pretty darned frequently, and Russia isn't likely to be appreciative of Beijing exacting a high price for its support either
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Mar 11, 2022 17:39
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. Gradually gaining air superiority on 3rd week is not very impressive
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Mar 11, 2022 17:39
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fatherboxx posted:Gradually gaining air superiority on 3rd week is not very impressive No, it's not impressive at all, but it would still be very bad for Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:42
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fatherboxx posted:Gradually gaining air superiority on 3rd week is not very impressive also the US/west is apperently going to give or is already giving the Ukrainians more sophisticated/longer range AA stuff.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:42
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BTW, congratulations to Russia on completing their 15 day operaional plan to occupy Ukraine 
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Mar 11, 2022 17:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also the US/west is apperently going to give or is already giving the Ukrainians more sophisticated/longer range AA stuff. Source? I have a hard time believing they'd hand over Patriots.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:44
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Rad Russian posted:It's also meaningless data as moving 10 miles over a highway to reach city limits is not the same as moving even ONE mile inside city limits in urban warfare. I don't think the Russian army has the training or manpower to take the cities through urban combat. They are likely going to besiege Kyiv and the other cities and bomb them until the defenders are starved out like they're doing in Mariupol. The only question is how long it will take vs how much pain Putin is willing for Russia to absorb through sanctions. Maybe he just doesn't give a poo poo and will go on grinding Ukraine down till the bitter end. Recruiting Syrians and Wagner nazis speaks to manpower problems but we don't really know what the actual situation is on the ground.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:44
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Fwiw re: Belarus false flag talk https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1502320420371972102
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Mar 11, 2022 17:44
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Beefeater1980 posted:Occam’s razor suggests it was the Ukrainians, perhaps because troops in an active firefight retreated there or something, and who are now throwing out chaff as a way to prevent broadening the war. This seems to me vastly more likely than Russia secretly false flag bombing an ally, although we’re in madworld now so who knows. Do you have any idea of the distances involved here? One of the reasons the Russians are having such trouble is because you basically have to move along roads, but somehow you think it's more likely that a Ukrainian ground force retreated through Russian lines across marshy terrain and wandered into a Belarussian village and somehow had enough ordnance to simulate bombs large enough to be dropped by aircraft? Apologies if you were posting ironically, btw. Irony in text is easy to miss.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:44
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TheRat posted:Source? I have a hard time believing they'd hand over Patriots. Some UK AA thing was announced yesterday Edit: here
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Mar 11, 2022 17:47
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Kraftwerk posted:If the Russians are running 200 sorties and bombing western airfields it sounds to me like Ukranian air defence is in really bad shape and the Russians are gradually getting air superiority. We don’t know what kind of sorties those are, and where. If someone flies some torturers into an occupied town, is that a sortie? I don’t think we have the information to assess what Russia is getting for itself with those sorties.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:49
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ummel posted:Fwiw re: Belarus false flag talk Yeah if Belarus is openly saying this, good luck getting their military involved.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:49
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