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Pakled posted:Forget General Winter, Colonel Mud's the one you've gotta worry about Releasing water from the reservoir closest to Kyiv will have made that last longer in the immediate area. The Nazis almost immediately got bogged down in the Soviet mud and never really solved the problems involved with that. You can hook a few trucks up to a tank, but those trucks are going to break poo poo and it puts enormous strain on the tank. Not to mention it takes a tank that was supposed to be guarding the Rollbahn and turns it into a very expensive, very thirsty, prime mover. The best they were able to do is develop tracked prime movers and supply vehicles like the Raumschlepper Ost. Point being that even the Nazi war machine could only fight against the mud, never conquering it. Any attempt was too little, too late and never an actual solution. Traditionally, in areas with mud season(s), the cheapest and best way to move wheeled vehicles through soft ground is by corduroy road; birch or pine log panels smashed down in the mud perpendicular to the direction of travel. This works, and well enough that a crude rail system can be built on top of it. The limiting factors are time and how much wood is available either along the way or in rear areas from which they can be brought forward. Obviously this makes for a very rough surface, requiring more maintenance on anything travelling across it.
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Mar 12, 2022 16:59
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https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1502671875511574536?cxt=HHwWkICznf-GyNopAAAA
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Mar 12, 2022 16:59
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Skex posted:Military vehicles don't have keys, the last thing you'd want in combat situation would someone scrambling for key during an attack, or worse losing the loving things. "sorry sir would have loved to have made the offensive but private Jenkins lost the tanks keys somewhere between the latrine and the mess." Also the normal assumption is that they will be looked after by soldiers at all times.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:00
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Alchenar posted:I think even that is arguable. Some form of Iraqi civil war with an element of 'thanks for getting rid of saddam but go home now we aren't interested in Liberal democracy' was probably inevitable, but things probably go very differently with even as minor policy changes as 'keep paying the Iraqi army salaries'. Yeah, that's a huge part of the tragedy of it all. Don't disband the Iraqi Army, don't ban the Ba'ath Party, invade with enough troops to actually secure the country and public restore services ASAP... things still may not have ended well, but there's a much better chance that it doesn't devolve into a multi-year civil war/insurgency. unfortunately, the bush administration was categorically incapable of making good decisions* so we get to live in the hell timeline *keeping in mind the best decision would have been "don't invade Iraq"
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Mar 12, 2022 17:03
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Seems like Russian soldiers' morale may be getting a little shot in the arm. Or leg. Or back. https://twitter.com/JPaulKirby/status/1502606458667548673?s=20&t=T8GUhlnjsAxPJ4caw7LKsg original telegram source via https://en.hromadske.ua/ twitter account: https://t.me/SBUkr/3881 Edit: Related story - Kadyrov's men shoot wounded soldiers rather than evacuate them. https://twitter.com/kw_danielv/status/1502674112975618054?s=20&t=G9ZxJmWI1W96uldR99A7hw Article: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/12/7330744/ There's been reports that Russians have been shooting their wounded since early on, mostly from POW accounts. This is from Ukrainian intelligence so grain of salt. KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 17:08
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https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1502502896096595968?s=20&t=qLq0Yj_PZLwFUVbjCzkJCg
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Mar 12, 2022 17:12
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https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502631110542508041 https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502634237857607686
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Mar 12, 2022 17:17
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KitConstantine posted:Well this seems like it'll make western businesses want to keep operations open in Russia! If you read the article, tech companies were ordered to leave execs in Russia just in case the FSB needed to effect arrest. Or intimidation apparently.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:17
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https://twitter.com/EmineDzheppar/status/1502545496614789126
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Mar 12, 2022 17:19
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502631110542508041 They obviously are legitimate military targets, the question is just "so what are you going to do about it?" https://twitter.com/ExumAM/status/1502650851344715785
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Mar 12, 2022 17:19
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KitConstantine posted:Russian TV update: Propaganda channels back away from reality, resume insane nationalism! The video includes translations. They never approached reality, same as the western side. Propaganda has been one of the biggest factors in war for a long time and only continues to grow in importance. I'm not saying Russia or this war is in any way good, just critiquing a country at war for using propaganda is silly. Look at Vietnam - when just a minority of US media stopped pushing the propaganda and started being critical public opinion swayed quickly and the war effort started to end. When/if Russia TV starts critiquing this war, Western media will have already declared it long over.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:19
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Alchenar posted:Cross posting from games: Combat Mission is made by battle front, they’re pretty serious turn based war game sims. All their historical stuff was real places and very close to the actual events. They know their poo poo.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:22
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502631110542508041 i think there is no doubt that a convoy full of weapons for the enemy army within ukraine territory is a valid military target (and my assumption has been that ukraine, not nato, has been operating those convoys). convoys within nato territory are more ambiguous, but the commonsense issue here is that russia does not actually have the ability to safely engage convoys in nato territory right now even if they wanted to. they could fire ballistic missiles at nato airfields, at most.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:23
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Hand Row posted:I am surprised by how many John Deere’s are in freaking Ukraine unless it’s like a weird subset of farmer that likes both them and tanks. They’re a big exporter. US exports assloads of heavy equipment for farming and construction.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:24
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Concerned Citizen posted:It's easy to always blame the political leadership, but the military leadership doesn't really get to claim they don't have input on achievable political goals. i think they are generally the best in the world at figuring out the best way to achieve results against lesser militaries while experiencing next to no losses, but they have also been guilty of painting pretty rosy pictures/projections on the ground that have distorted decision making Ultimately the military is controlled by the government. If politicians want and reward honest and truthful assessments that contradict desired political narratives the military will provide them. If you promote and reward sycophants and opportunists who deliver the conclusions you want then that's what you'll get. It's like what we're seeing happening to Russia in Ukraine right now. Clearly Russia started this whole thing with flawed information. You can blame the military and Intel services for loving that up but in the end it's the Russian government that is responsible for those institutions being competent and well run. Sure throw some generals and Intel chiefs in prison but you should always ask how they got there, how and why they were able to do what they did and then deal with that as well.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:24
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If the Russians were capable of interdicting the arms convoys, they would have done it already
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Mar 12, 2022 17:24
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Concerned Citizen posted:i think there is no doubt that a convoy full of weapons for the enemy army within ukraine territory is a valid military target (and my assumption has been that ukraine, not nato, has been operating those convoys). convoys within nato territory are more ambiguous, but the commonsense issue here is that russia does not actually have the ability to safely engage convoys in nato territory right now even if they wanted to. they could fire ballistic missiles at nato airfields, at most. Yeah, 3rd parties sending arms to one or both sides of an armed conflict has been standard practice for thousands of years. There are pretty clear (if unwritten) rules for dealing with it. Convoys in theater are legit, out of it are not. This is just more blustering by the Russians because that's all they know how to do.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:25
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Proxy wars have existed for decades but now there's Twitter. https://twitter.com/devinschiff/status/1502322367170813956?t=sEfAk_EfkqYYFSsGxWYpbQ&s=19
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Mar 12, 2022 17:25
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KitConstantine posted:I'm not sure if these conversations are what resulted in the corridors. It seems like they came from direct negotiations between Russia/Ukraine and also as part of Russia's standard operational procedure. Having the conversations removes the Kremlin talking point of "the west is just ignoring us!!!" I suppose? Have to doubt this one. All things considered, I’d expect Ukrainian casualties to at best half of the Russian, definitely not 5-10 times less than theirs, depending on which estimate for Russian casualties you accept as reasonable. PerilPastry posted:"It was agreed not to disclose any further content of the conversation" That’s fairly mundane, if a bit cagey. The X-man cometh posted:Has there been any armed resistance in the captured cities? I've seen protests but no Iraq style attacks on soldiers. We’ve seen indirect references to behind-the-lines convoy attacks and such. It’s worth keeping that the largest city Russia currently controls has 290k people in it, and they’re not quite rushing to Gestapo it up.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:25
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Bar Ran Dun posted:They’re a big exporter. US exports assloads of heavy equipment for farming and construction. There's also a massive second-hand market for heavy ag equipment. These things are built like military equipment and provided you stay on top of maintenance, they'll run forever. The older ones that aren't soft locked by software updates anyway.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Have to doubt this one. All things considered, I’d expect Ukrainian casualties to at best half of the Russian, definitely not 5-10 times less than theirs, depending on which estimate for Russian casualties you accept as reasonable. The "standard" ratio considering the Ukrainians are on defense would be about 3 Russian casualties for each Ukrainian casualty. The rest of this is probably Ukrainians overestimating Russian casualties and the confusion between "casualty" and "killed". This number would line up approximately with the estimate of around 5k Russian *dead*, which would indicate about 15k additional Russian *casualties*, total, again going by standard ratios.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:28
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502631110542508041 There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. This is more of Russia just making up CalvinBall rules and assuming the size of their cock means everyone else will comply. Trading arms doesn’t make you a belligerent no matter how much rhetoric Putin uses.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:29
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KitConstantine posted:In other news Zelensky put a number on Ukrainian military causalties for the first time - 1300. Not sure if that's dead or dead/wounded. Telegram post linked in below tweet So if you don't count armed civilians, militias, and unincorporated azov forces... number is still too small to believe.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:29
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Willo567 posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1502631110542508041 Has anyone told them that starting a war with Ukraine is a dangerous move?
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Mar 12, 2022 17:31
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This is a perfect example of how insanely out-of-touch the Russian regime is with reality. They consider the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc. 'countries orchestrated by the US'. I think the regime actually believes the US has client-state levels of control over these nations. It's insane and sadly also indicates that any kind of peaceful co-existence with this regime in the aftermath of the war is going to be a massive pain. It does explain why Putin is always so angry - as in his mind the US isn't just a dominant power, but actually controls most of the world. That people like Schröder can ride the corruption rodeo with these guys, well aware what paranoid poo poo they believe in, boggles the mind. PederP fucked around with this message at 17:34 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 17:32
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Murgos posted:There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. Also, there's absolutely nothing that says you can't send arms to a country during a special military operation, either.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:32
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Sinteres posted:They obviously are legitimate military targets, the question is just "so what are you going to do about it?" And on the other hand people acting like this is shocking and unheard of are extremely ignorant of the Cold War.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:33
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Deteriorata posted:Yeah, 3rd parties sending arms to one or both sides of an armed conflict has been standard practice for thousands of years. There are pretty clear (if unwritten) rules for dealing with it. Convoys in theater are legit, out of it are not. Yhea the statements don't really seem like a big deal. I'm assuming the Ukrainian military are picking them up and carrying them over the border rather than NATO crossing the border themselves, in which case it's still Russia attacking Ukrainian troops inside Ukraine. There's nothing about the statements Russia made than insinuate they're going to be attacking targets in NATO territory or that they'll be directly targeting NATO troops.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:33
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The "standard" ratio considering the Ukrainians are on defense would be about 3 Russian casualties for each Ukrainian casualty. The rest of this is probably Ukrainians overestimating Russian casualties and the confusion between "casualty" and "killed". I see. My thinking here is that Russia has a disproportionate indirect fire advantage, and this is a conflict between modern armies - and so I’d expect maybe a ratio of 2. And I tend to believe the estimates claiming some 7000-9000 Russian soldiers KIA, which wouldn’t seem realistic relative to 1300 Ukrainian soldiers KIA. I could be entirely wrong here, of course.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:34
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Pook Good Mook posted:There's also a massive second-hand market for heavy ag equipment. These things are built like military equipment and provided you stay on top of maintenance, they'll run forever. Even poorly maintained run into the ground extremely old US construction/farm equipment is extremely desirable overseas. I used to do so many securing surveys on this stuff on flat racks or even broken down into parts in containers.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:34
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:So if you don't count armed civilians, militias, and unincorporated azov forces... number is still too small to believe. Not necessarily, there seems to have been a lot of confusion in how various media have translated "casualties," perhaps missing that "Casualties" includes injuries. Standard ratios for defending troops vs. attacking would estimate 3 to 1 casualty ratio between offense and defense, respectively. US estimates are currently of between 4-6k *dead* Russian soldiers. So 1.3k dead Ukrainian defenders isn't that far off. cinci zoo sniper posted:I see. My thinking here is that Russia has a disproportionate indirect fire advantage, and this is a conflict between modern armies - and so I’d expect maybe a ratio of 2. And I tend to believe the estimates claiming some 7000-9000 Russian soldiers KIA, which wouldn’t seem realistic relative to 1300 Ukrainian soldiers KIA. I could be entirely wrong here, of course. Russia has an advantage in direct fire artillery but it's not clear they're able to actually *use* all those extra guns due to logistics difficulties. I mean you could be right also  Fog of war and we don't really have good data. I'm just making the point that the Ukrainian numbers aren't necessarily outside the bounds of the range of possible truths given what we know right now.
Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 17:35
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Murgos posted:There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. if you go back into world war 2, you could end up as a belligerent for merely supplying needed raw materials. the allies intended to invade sweden and seize its iron ore mines, but events precluded that as a possibility. supplying arms is also something that is explicitly prohibited for a country claiming neutral status under the hague convention. so i don't think this is accurate, overtly supplying an enemy with weapons needed to wage a war is clearly an aggressive action. it is simply one that russia has allowed to happen, and it's something that has been done in the past during the cold war. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 17:36
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It will be interesting if they actually get to print, distribute and sell this stamp for the public to use. They should also issue a sheet of stamps honoring Ukrainian farmers and their tractors. If they really want to go balls to the wall they should issue a sheet of stamps of Russian war crimes and war horrors like Bangladesh did in 2017 to shame Pakistan -  http://commonwealthstampsopinion.blogspot.com/2017/09/1076-bangladesh-issues-71-shocking-war.html Imagine using one of those stamps to send granny a birthday card. To stay on topic, how's the Ukraine postal system coping in this war? "Ukraine's postal service is a Kremlin target. They showed us how they're still delivering the mail." https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...o_Fd80tlqRRy2sA A lot of rural pensioners depend on the mail to get their monthly payments since banks are scarce in areas.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:36
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Murgos posted:There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. Realistically NATO (US F22's 15K's) are either airborne or seconds from it at any given time, any 4th gen Russian fighter that approaches the Polish border is monitored and crossing will be intercepted asap. Air defense systems will actively fire at anything crossing the Polish border and unless Russia decides to use their next gen missiles (which thus far they seem to have not been willing to do), poo poo isn't hitting it's target. If they do use their next gen missiles, NATO gets a chance to test it's effectiveness and if successful it would be catastrophic for Russia's projection of power. The laws are irrelevant here (as they generally are in war), it's Russia's inability to actually conduct such an attack.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:38
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Concerned Citizen posted:It's easy to always blame the political leadership, but the military leadership doesn't really get to claim they don't have input on achievable political goals. i think they are generally the best in the world at figuring out the best way to achieve results against lesser militaries while experiencing next to no losses, but they have also been guilty of painting pretty rosy pictures/projections on the ground that have distorted decision making The reason it's easy to blame the political leadership is because they are the ultimate power and authority in Western democracies. So yeah: it is their fault. To bring it back to this thread, look by comparison how effectively Ukraine and European militaries are supporting their respective nations' political objectives right now. Political leaders are doing a remarkably good job at setting out clear policy objectives, clear boundaries, and then letting military planners in NATO do their thing.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:40
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Zephro posted:I mean this is true, but they're a tech company. They're not equipped to go up against the secret police of any half-competent country. I have a feeling this is going to become the go-to example if anyone is still arguing that "tech companies are more powerful than governments!!" Russia wants to avoid Apple and Google bricking every phone in the country and holding execs hostage is a way to effect that in the short term. Russia isn’t concerned with the monetization of YouTube. They know the Apple Store Arbat isn’t re-opening.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:41
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Sinteres posted:They obviously are legitimate military targets, the question is just "so what are you going to do about it?" There is nothing the Russians are willing to do about it.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:41
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Murgos posted:There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. Notably lend-lease started before Pearl Harbor.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:43
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PederP posted:This is a perfect example of how insanely out-of-touch the Russian regime is with reality. They consider the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc. 'countries orchestrated by the US'. I think the regime actually believes the US has client-state levels of control over these nations. It's insane and sadly also indicates that any kind of peaceful co-existence with this regime in the aftermath of the war is going to be a massive pain. It does explain why Putin is always so angry - as in his mind the US isn't just a dominant power, but actually controls most of the world. That people like Schröder can ride the corruption rodeo with these guys, well aware what paranoid poo poo they believe in, boggles the mind. Concerned Citizen posted:if you go back into world war 2, you could end up as a belligerent for merely supplying needed raw materials. the allies intended to invade sweden and seize its iron ore mines, but events precluded that as a possibility. supplying arms is also something that is explicitly prohibited for a country claiming neutral status under the hague convention. so i don't think this is accurate, overtly supplying an enemy with weapons needed to wage a war is clearly an aggressive action. it is simply one that russia has allowed to happen, and it's something that has been done in the past during the cold war.
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Mar 12, 2022 17:46
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1502502896096595968?s=20&t=qLq0Yj_PZLwFUVbjCzkJCg Ugh this shelter is so scummy, I hate that they are getting free publicity like that
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