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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw Please be true.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:11
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Oh, so they did get the fancy modern version. Someone wasn't stingy when sending those.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:12
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Tomn posted:How much does the stock market actually invest in the real economy, though? I don't know much about stocks, but my understanding is that only the IPO really sees money going directly to the company in question, and afterwards they'll only see more money if the company sells more of its shares, which comes with its own dangers if it allows someone to become a majority stakeholder. Isn't every other stock activity basically traders buying and selling from each other for arbitrage purposes without the money ever seeing anyone but the stock traders themselves, with the company itself only indirectly affected by the value of the shares they hold going up or down? It isn't really investment as such - but it's currency flowing into the country when foreign investors buy shares. The money doesn't flow to the companies (outside of IPOs and emissions) - but the domestic shareholders profit from outside investment. This is much more important for non-US economies. Foreign investment in Russian stock makes Russian pension funds and Russian oligarchs richer. But what I tried to describe before was the effect on inflow of foreign currency. If someone located in China wants to buy Russian stocks on MOEX - they can't do that using Chinese yuan. The investor has to buy rubles first, and then the stock (as it has to paid for in rubles). Usually that is handled by the investment platform / brokerage, so it just looks like a cost to the investor, but in practice currency is being exchanged. Russia is currently starved of foreign currency due to sanctions and foreign businesses withdrawing. They need foreign currency to buy stuff from other countries - so inflow is important. Having a closed stock market means yet another source of foreign currency is unavailable. This is a big reason developing (and smaller wealthy) countries basically spend marketing money on attracting foreign investors. It creates inflow of foreign currency without having to actually export anything. Turkish economy is completely in the gutter right now - I don't know if Bayraktar is made by a company listed on a the Istanbul stock exchange, but if it is, there is going to be tons of foreign investors wanting to buy those shares and every single such transaction will bring foreign currency. If the stock is traded over and over because it is popular or volatile - the investors either need to buy Turkish Lira over and over. So not having a stock exchange is a really bad thing for an economy, unless everything has crashed and you want to avoid the wrong people buying up everything. Also, if foreign investors are *selling* they will be paid in rubles - and they will then exchange those rubles for yuan/dollars/euros putting a downward pressure on the currency. PederP fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 20:12
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw If this is actually true then it would significantly tilt me toward 'jesus they might actually win'. I've absolutely assumed that Mariupol was being deliberately left to suffer in order to buy time for the inevitable retreat west.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:15
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KitConstantine posted:More maps just dropped. I think these two go well together for comparison I think it is obvious that Russia is going to make a major push on Kyiv in the next week which will be the deciding factor in the war. If the Ukrainians defeat them soundly it basically ends the Northern theater almost entirely. They can then push their forces toward the South and taking back territory there. The big question at that point is if they go into Crimea first and take that cutting off that supply route or push east entirely to the Russian border. There are pluses and minuses to both. There is also the question of at what point would Russia decide to cut their losses and run? One would think if they lose their attack on Kyiv the smart move would be to cut and run then. If the Ukrainians win and push to the South the chances of them losing what they gained before increases greatly. Especially since supplies from the West would be able to reach the fronts much faster.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:16
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Normal economy Morrow posted:What does a stock market ultimately do? It let's you assess the value of privately owned companies and allows those companies to raise money for investment by selling stock shares. Russia can keep the market closed until it needs to do that again. Alchenar posted:The real issue behind the 'we will strike arms shipments' statement is that it highlights the difference between Western and Russian politicians when making these kinds of statements. Every time Biden or Stoltenberg speaks it's to lay out crystal clear lines on what the US/NATO will/will not do (ie. no fighting in Ukraine, defend every inch of NATO soil). Ryabkov says 'arms convoys are legitimate targets' and leaves ambiguous whether he means in Ukraine or in transit to Ukraine. Now obviously Russia isn't going to conduct airstrikes into Poland... but they might. What if they send an Iskander to hit the border point, does that count? Drone_Fragger posted:I mean it's fairly apparent that the plan was to defend kyiv and the west of ukraine by using the south to stall the Russian advance. If it was a good play, I'm not sure, but it's what's happening. In the south they’d just be circling around the defenders and hitting them from all sides. By not defending those areas as determinedly Ukraine is giving up territory but conserving forces because committing to defending it would consume whatever they throw at it and probably not achieve a better outcome than the current situation.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:17
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PederP posted:So not having a stock exchange is a really bad thing for an economy, unless everything has crashed and you want to avoid the wrong people buying up everything. Yeah about that... That specifically makes a ton more sense when you realize that foreign investment could essentially buy a large chunk of the country for a couple rubles on the dollar.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:17
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw There's still a 30 mile highway from there to Mariupol if it is, which doesn't seem like a given to secure/be able to use. But, yes. Please, anything that makes this easier to end. cr0y posted:Yeah about that... Something the PRC's been doing to every country with World Bank/IMF debt for years. I'd be wary of that too. DOOMocrat fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 20:18
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DOOMocrat posted:There's still a 30 mile highway from there to Mariupol if it is, which doesn't seem like a given to secure/be able to use. But, yes. Please, anything that makes this easier to end. That’s probably close enough that Ukrainian artillery can hit the besieging forces
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Mar 12, 2022 20:21
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https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1502696598542893061 Never thought i'd see someone getting in jail for this, but that's the world we're living in I guess.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:22
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TearsOfPirates posted:https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1502696598542893061 what a great idea really, you don't even need to write anything on the thing you're holding, it's already obvious what it's supposed to say
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Mar 12, 2022 20:23
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Shibawanko posted:what a great idea really, you don't even need to write anything on the thing you're holding, it's already obvious what it's supposed to say
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Mar 12, 2022 20:26
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If I'm being sent to a Russian prison, where tuberculosis and new forms of hepatitis are rampant, armchair badass me thinks I'd prefer to do the thing I'm being jailed for, for real.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:27
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TearsOfPirates posted:https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1502696598542893061 No you see it's actually a white flag, she's suggesting surrender
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Mar 12, 2022 20:30
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Yeah, I don't really grasp the purpose of peaceful protest in Russia. Like, I'm not clear on what exactly people are expecting to achieve. It seems noble sure but just obviously futile.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:30
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Murgos posted:There is no law saying you can’t trade arms with a country during a war. Here's hoping Putin orders unrestricted submarine war to stop Americans from supplying Ukraine.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:31
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Tuna-Fish posted:There were substantial forces defending there. They got absolutely trashed in the first few days. Doesn’t seem to be the case, from what I’ve heard at least, that the forces were substantial right at the Crimea border. The force there was relatively lightweight and with second rate equipment, according to the accounts of one of the brigade commanders down there iirc. It unlikely was realistic or planned to hold them there in the long term to begin with - Ukrainian tacticians seem to like defence in depth, and Crimea had a giant Russian military base, and would have had well oiled logistics for a frontline struggle right out the gate. Now, their more likely plan, to hold a concave around Dnipro and like Melitopol, did also not work, but that’s a different story. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 20:31
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DOOMocrat posted:If I'm being sent to a Russian prison, where tuberculosis and new forms of hepatitis are rampant, armchair badass me thinks I'd prefer to do the thing I'm being jailed for, for real. I don't know about Russia but even here in America there are many people who would be troubled by the first but not by the equivalent of the second.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:31
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw hmm according to this recent video Mariupol has fallen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGiPJOIYQEo edit: southeast outskirts of Mariupol 
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Mar 12, 2022 20:34
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah, I don't really grasp the purpose of peaceful protest in Russia. Like, I'm not clear on what exactly people are expecting to achieve. It seems noble sure but just obviously futile. Some people are willing to suffer or die for their ideals. Even if they change nothing the act of protesting helps counter government propaganda. It is insanely risky but some people are willing to take that risk.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:38
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SaTaMaS posted:hmm according to this recent video Mariupol has fallen Listen to the video more carefully.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:43
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ImpAtom posted:Some people are willing to suffer or die for their ideals. Even if they change nothing the act of protesting helps counter government propaganda. Eh, this only works if information about the fact that the protest is happening is disseminated. Which in Russia, it is not - you will only find information about protests if you are actively looking for it
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Mar 12, 2022 20:44
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PederP posted:So not having a stock exchange is a really bad thing for an economy, unless everything has crashed and you want to avoid the wrong people buying up everything. Also, if foreign investors are *selling* they will be paid in rubles - and they will then exchange those rubles for yuan/dollars/euros putting a downward pressure on the currency. Even if the stock exchange reopens, they did enact a separate law after the big sanctions were brought in, which bans foreigners from selling assets on the exchange.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:46
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nutri_void posted:Eh, this only works if information about the fact that the protest is happening is disseminated. They're acting on a very old-fashioned theory of non-violent protest: each and every pair of eyes that sees you show up and get arrested matters in the long run. They're not playing for the instant social media clicks, they're fighting just to keep some kind of awareness and flame of resistance alive in the darkness. As one activist put it, when you're in that mindset, "It is the job of the police to beat and repress us, it is our job to organize and resist". You just go and do your job.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:56
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw For some reason I’m remembering hearing the Russians only actually took Volnovakha in the last day or two—if that’s correct I wouldn’t say that retaking it would really break the siege. Also just as a general point it seems like “OSINT defender” is much more optimistic/willing to take UA propaganda seriously than other accounts like “OSINT technical.” I wouldn’t take stuff they say super seriously.
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Mar 12, 2022 20:57
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nutri_void posted:Eh, this only works if information about the fact that the protest is happening is disseminated. People still have eyes and ears. Protesting existed before social media. And each person who is arrested or beaten is someone's family member or friend and they remember that.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:00
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Antigravitas posted:Oh, so they did get the fancy modern version. Someone wasn't stingy when sending those. How much of Germany's increase in military spending is just going straight to equipment getting funneled to Ukraine?
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Mar 12, 2022 21:06
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smug n stuff posted:For some reason I’m remembering hearing the Russians only actually took Volnovakha in the last day or two—if that’s correct I wouldn’t say that retaking it would really break the siege. Yes, I also remember Volnovakha being mentioned yesterday and possibly the day before.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:06
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cgeq posted:How much of Germany's increase in military spending is just going straight to equipment getting funneled to Ukraine? None, it's going to McKinsey  (I am joking, or am I?)
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Mar 12, 2022 21:09
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cgeq posted:How much of Germany's increase in military spending is just going straight to equipment getting funneled to Ukraine? Apropos, what concrete news of weapon shipments have we heard this week, besides the UK Startreak+javelin? And just as I posted this I see the US have given a $200 million credit to Ukraine to buy stuff from US war stocks or other military support. Trump fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Mar 12, 2022 |
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Mar 12, 2022 21:10
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barbecue at the folks posted:They're acting on a very old-fashioned theory of non-violent protest: each and every pair of eyes that sees you show up and get arrested matters in the long run. They're not playing for the instant social media clicks, they're fighting just to keep some kind of awareness and flame of resistance alive in the darkness. As one activist put it, when you're in that mindset, "It is the job of the police to beat and repress us, it is our job to organize and resist". You just go and do your job. Personal psychology/philosophy can play into it too. You COULD keep your head down, toe the line, follow the orders, and be a good little cog in the machine, accepting your place as a powerless and helpless pawn with no agency tossed around by the whims of the powerful. Or you can exert agency in your life, make a choice of your own, make a stand against everything arrayed before you and even if it causes you to suffer terribly for it it is still a choice that YOU made, your own entirely, and not that of the state and society at large and in the eyes of some that makes life more worth living than to be, as Zelensky put it, an emptiness that breathes and walks and eats something. You find meaning in your life somewhere, and some folks find it in protesting injustice no matter what. I dunno if I could do that myself, but I respect the mindset.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:10
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1502671875511574536?cxt=HHwWkICznf-GyNopAAAA The status of global peace over the next decade depends on Putin eating poo poo and scaring all other autocrats away from wars of conquest built on lies.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:12
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cgeq posted:How much of Germany's increase in military spending is just going straight to equipment getting funneled to Ukraine?
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Mar 12, 2022 21:13
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TearsOfPirates posted:https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1502696598542893061 That is literal Thought Crime. The sign can be blank, but if it provokes a thought that everyone already thinks contrary to what the State allows, it is a crime. I know there's Whataboutism with American protests, but Putin is going back to the Good Ol' Days of absolute suppression of thought.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:31
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MadJackal posted:The status of global peace over the next decade depends on Putin eating poo poo and scaring all other autocrats away from wars of conquest built on lies. China is definitely going to take Taiwan in the near future regardless of how this plays out. The real lesson here is hyper-capitalist mafia states cut corners.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:31
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MadJackal posted:The status of global peace over the next decade depends on Putin eating poo poo and scaring all other autocrats away from wars of conquest built on lies. On the contrary, I fully expect Western adventurism to increase by combining a remilitarization of Europe with Russia proved a tangibly ineffective but politically convenient boogeyman.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:39
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Conspiratiorist posted:On the contrary, I fully expect Western adventurism to increase by combining a remilitarization of Europe with Russia proved a tangibly ineffective but politically convenient boogeyman. At some point America is going to get bored and take a run at Iran where we’ll be learning the same lessons Russia is learning now.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:43
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Yet another 'It's about logistics, stupid' thread, but with some hard numbers attached - specifically issues that truck losses/lack of trucks to start with are placing on Russian logistics. https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502732467165409287?s=20&t=rjUU4aNargR30weznWawZw https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1502732471464509443?s=20&t=rjUU4aNargR30weznWawZw quote:Indeed, most Russian thrusts seem to have stopped dead after going forward something close to the original 140km. Even after 16 days of war, they are having great difficulties getting units beyond that distance from their home supply dumps. This, btw, is directly the opposite of what the Russians should be doing according to their doctrine--which is to be fast moving to exploit openings, and adjusting flexibly to the opportunities allowed by battle. Credentials of the poster: "Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History"
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Mar 12, 2022 21:44
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cgeq posted:How much of Germany's increase in military spending is just going straight to equipment getting funneled to Ukraine? Probably not much. You have to understand that the 100billion number is just a vehicle to skirt around the Constitutional debt break while increasing the military spending to >2% of GDP. In effect this will mean that Germany spends around 20bil per year more on the Bundeswehr. Just to demonstrate how underfunded the Bundeswehr is - It will cost around 20-30bil to fill ammo storages to the NATO recommended level of 30 combat days of ammo.
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Mar 12, 2022 21:46
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Ynglaur posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=arfAJMzBzhtZJfg69Amdqw If so just hope it's the siege is broken long enough to get people out and supplies in. As, if true, this seems to be a very calculated move to break the siege so hopefully they've got everything in place to do as much as they can to help Mariupol in what ever time they realistically have (god it would be great if they can actually hold it).
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Mar 12, 2022 21:51
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