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tehinternet posted:Those were both super interesting and just as bleak as I thought they’d be. Thanks! First of all use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine does not telegraph a willingness to destroy the whole world. George W. Bush seriously considered using nuclear 'bunker busters' in Afghanistan (being the war criminal he is); and, while he decided not to do so, had he done so it would have not telegraphed "hi, I am willing to loose the United States' strategic nuclear arsenal on the world if I do not get my way." Tactical nuclear weapons are this huge gray area, where it is hard to determine how to respond because of the obvious risk that two sides flinging tactical nuclear weapons at each other will eventually move to a strategic exchange. I honestly, as I have been saying, think this is the right move on Poland's part to make the issue of NATO involvement should Putin resort to the worst kinds of war crimes imaginable unclear. In other words, to say to Putin, "you might face widening your already unwinnable war to one that will be so costly and catastrophic for Russia, there is literally no scenario where your regime survives... if you use weapons of mass destruction or engage in intentional genocide." The aim here is to deter Putin from taking such actions because he is not sure how NATO will respond, and therefore will not risk the direct confrontation with NATO. This works in exactly the same way as Putin mumbling about putting nuclear forces on alert. It telegraphs to NATO, "if you get involved, I am not sure what we might do, but we will consider using tactical nuclear weapons." This has worked wonders at keeping NATO from becoming directly involved. Now having said that, I am not in favor of NATO actually intervening, but I think it is smarter policy to leave it an open question based around very specific red lines (like the use of biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons) than it is to have Biden come out every few days say and say, "no matter what Russia does in Ukraine, we won't do poo poo!" Or, in other words, "wink, wink, Putin... if you think you are losing bad enough you have to resort to weapons of mass destruction, go for it! We might sanction you more, but really how much worse can those get?"
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Mar 13, 2022 16:40
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I suspect the original was real and the later ones were faked. At the very least, the 4th one is a massive shift in tone, despite the publisher suggesting that it’s the from the author of the 1st. The first 3 we’re alright, but that China derail in the 4th is something I’d normally attribute to excessive vodka consumption on an empty stomach. steinrokkan posted:If the city is cut off from medicine and other basic needs, the death toll can ramp up massively just from preventable deaths from injuries. It's a terrible sizuation. It is. They were running out of medicine for cancer and diabetes patients 2 days ago. Phlegmish posted:I've read that Mariupol strongly backed Yanukovych back in the day, but with these atrocities that are being committed by the Russians I highly doubt that will translate into support for the occupying forces, or interest in setting up another garbage people's republic. You’re right. The cities getting brutalised by Russian armies the hardest right now - Kharkiv and Mariupol - are the most “Russian” in the government-controlled territories of Ukraine.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:42
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Has anyone mentioned having Ukraine doing an arrangement like EFTA (or joining EFTA itself)? It could be used to exclude some provisions Russians find objectionable and maybe even save face a little since Ukraine would not be literally joining the EU. EDIT: Also maybe some kind of bilateral defense treaty in place of NATO too. uncleTomOfFinland fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 16:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:At the very least, the 4th one is a massive shift in tone, despite the publisher suggesting that it’s the from the author of the 1st. The first 3 we’re alright, but that China derail in the 4th is something I’d normally attribute to excessive vodka consumption on an empty stomach. The author writes: Во-первых, у нас всерьез рассматривают версию, что происходящее сражение на украинской территории - это война США против Китая, в которой американцы попросту нас подставили и использовали. Теперь постараюсь максимально сжато, просто и доступно пояснить. ... Вслух такое признать мы не сможем, даже проработка версии в текущих условиях "не вполне уместна". Поэтому есть большое желание, чтобы тайное стало явным: да, это всего лишь рабочая версия, но она есть в нашей структуре. The author doesn't sound convinced of it to me A letter dropped today and it's much more unhinged and I don't want to believe that that is the plan
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Mar 13, 2022 16:45
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Rapulum_Dei posted:President Zelensky is a Russian speaker so it’s not that marginalised. I tried to get some numbers but the wiki page has a lot of very recent edits so I wouldn’t rely on anything it says at this point. there were quite a few quebec style laws aimed at promoting Ukrainian language over Russian. If ukraine survives with its territorial integrity intact, russian will evaporate from the public space in eastern ukraine p quickly i imagine.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:46
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Ukrainian is the official language of the country and is used in most of the schools, especially textbooks and such. When I lived in Kharkiv in 05 100% of daily life was conducted in Russian. Everyone spoke Russian, but lots of people spoke Ukrainian too or were learning it in school.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:49
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Somaen posted:If it flew and bombed someone in Poland or the Baltics someone would be calling for activating article 5 probably. I wonder what would be the NATO response then since it's an accident but also uhhhh That would be very unlikely. Over two hundred NATO citizens were killed in MH17 shoot down, article 5 wasn't even discussed.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:51
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mutata posted:Ukrainian is the official language of the country and is used in most of the schools, especially textbooks and such. When I lived in Kharkiv in 05 100% of daily life was conducted in Russian. Everyone spoke Russian, but lots of people spoke Ukrainian too or were learning it in school. Mostly the same in Chernihiv as well. But the colonizer's tongue was being oppressed!
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Mar 13, 2022 16:51
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OddObserver posted:Mariupol is Akhmetov's town. Akhemtov has previously aligned himself with Yanukovich, yes, but he is loyal to himself first. Right, but do they have any desire to become a part of the DPR, let alone Russia? Russia's biggest mistake, it seems, has been the equation of Russian speakers and Russians, and of Russians and collaborators.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:52
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Somaen posted:The author writes: That closing paragraph did stand out to me as well. Like sure, but what’s the point of saying this? Someone might as well be working on a scenario where Putin is a Right Sector double agent, finally making his move to destroy the Russian Federation. I’ll need to check the last letter in the evening. Sounds like it’s a fun read.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:53
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Phlegmish posted:Right, but do they have any desire to become a part of the DPR, let alone Russia? No one has any desire to be a part of DNR, it’s a hellhole according to literally everyone - Ukrainians within and without, and Russians.
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Mar 13, 2022 16:54
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mutata posted:Ukrainian is the official language of the country and is used in most of the schools, especially textbooks and such. When I lived in Kharkiv in 05 100% of daily life was conducted in Russian. Everyone spoke Russian, but lots of people spoke Ukrainian too or were learning it in school. No no no, Putin told that there was genocide going on cause you can't get service in Russian at the pharmacy 
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Mar 13, 2022 16:56
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I wonder what kind of security preparations go into these trips. The president of the United States doesn't go on casual walks in the street like this, and there isn't an enemy army a few miles from Washington D.C. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1503024136523767814?t=xyMSiSotkIqsGKMhqQUm6Q&s=19
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Mar 13, 2022 16:59
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Even in Lviv, you had no issues getting by in Russian, maybe if you were a native Ukrainian it would earn a furrowed brow. In Kyiv, it was difficult to have a complete conversation in Ukrainian even in 2017 (that changed when I was last there several months ago)
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Mar 13, 2022 17:00
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https://twitter.com/IndyUSA/status/1503037629876654083 The deal went down over location? Is it optics over which airport is used? Both countries are NATO members.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:00
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Trump posted:https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1502892765092450306 *Izyum, North of Donbass. And laffo another Su-34 bites the dust; I think that was 2 yesterday.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:00
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Captain Kosmos posted:No no no, Putin told that there was genocide going on cause you can't get service in Russian at the pharmacy For Americans reading, since y’all don’t necessarily know how official languages work even, I’d like to make a just in case clarification. Ukrainian being the only official language does essentially mean that a government employee is not under an obligation to accommodate your needs in any other language. That’s it. No one gives a gently caress about your choice of language for buying condoms.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:02
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 Ukrainian railway map
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Mar 13, 2022 17:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:No one has any desire to be a part of DNR, it’s a hellhole according to literally everyone - Ukrainians within and without, and Russians. Do you have a source? I totally believe it though, if I lived in Kherson or any other occupied city I would also be trying my absolute hardest to halt the creation of yet another tiny, partially recognized 'people's republic' forever doomed to remain within Russia's orbit.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:04
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/IndyUSA/status/1503037629876654083 This issue has unnecessarily created a tension in the US/Pole relationship where none previously existed and reflected poorly on the State Dept.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:06
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqcp8vnrJ7k Israels foreign minister condemning Russia for the invasion. This seems a lot less fence-sitty than they've been up to now. quote:Israel condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It has no justification, so we call on Russia to stop shelling and attacks and sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the conflict,"
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Mar 13, 2022 17:06
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the popes toes posted:This issue has unnecessarily created a tension in the US/Pole relationship where none previously existed and reflected poorly on the State Dept.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That closing paragraph did stand out to me as well. Like sure, but what’s the point of saying this? Someone might as well be working on a scenario where Putin is a Right Sector double agent, finally making his move to destroy the Russian Federation. I read it as "this is the theory that our organization is spending the most resources on fleshing out to deliver to the czar to explain our failures" quote:I’ll need to check the last letter in the evening. Sounds like it’s a fun read. If the initial steps of it start coming true I'm taking a citybee and heading to Poland
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Mar 13, 2022 17:10
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Somaen posted:The author is not saying that this is what's going on. He was saying that this is one of the narratives in the FSB analyst wing of the events unfolding, that the US masterfully orchestrated the crisis to weaken Russia with the goal of isolating China Eh, it seems a bit unclear to me. Yes, the whole thing is supposedly the narrative being developed, but the claim about China invading Taiwan was used in terms that suggested "This WAS happening, until we hosed it up." I can't read Russian myself so maybe the original comes off differently, but I looked it up and these are the Igor Sushko translation excerpts: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502026365817688074?s=20&t=mPW4tVRUbIoHQTQcYdIxoA You'll note that it takes it as a given that the plan was (possibly) happening - the supposition that this is all a US plot hinges on foiling what was already happening, that it upset China's pre-existing plans. Again, this is all what the letters SEEM to be saying. Feels a bit far-fetched, though, the idea that invading Taiwan would be a "small victory" seems a bit outrageous unless Xi is just as brainwormed as Putin if not more so. Also how would a FSB analyst be so sure of what Xi Jinping is thinking or planning behind closed doors for his own internal political maneuvers?
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Mar 13, 2022 17:13
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:https://twitter.com/IndyUSA/status/1503037629876654083 Given the US has been trying to stay in the backseat so Europe can drive it makes a certain sense. Putin always makes everything NATO does as "The US", that would feed into his narrative.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:For Americans reading, since y’all don’t necessarily know how official languages work even, I’d like to make a just in case clarification. Ukrainian being the only official language does essentially mean that a government employee is not under an obligation to accommodate your needs in any other language. That’s it. No one gives a gently caress about your choice of language for buying condoms. Fingoon here, but I don't have any idea how the languages work in Ukraine, just presumed that Putin is lying.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:15
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PITT posted:Given the US has been trying to stay in the backseat so Europe can drive it makes a certain sense. Putin always makes everything NATO does as "The US", that would feed into his narrative. There's no point giving Ukraine jets they wouldn't be able to use anyay
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Mar 13, 2022 17:17
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Tomn posted:Eh, it seems a bit unclear to me. Yes, the whole thing is supposedly the narrative being developed, but the claim about China invading Taiwan was used in terms that suggested "This WAS happening, until we hosed it up." I can't read Russian myself so maybe the original comes off differently, but I looked it up and these are the Igor Sushko translation excerpts: If it was true, I could see the FSB analysis or general Russian thinking around Ukraine being a cakewalk with upsides for domestic politics being projected onto their interpretation of Chinese goals I can’t see China actually invading. Before or after this.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:18
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William Bear posted:I wonder what kind of security preparations go into these trips. The president of the United States doesn't go on casual walks in the street like this, and there isn't an enemy army a few miles from Washington D.C. This is a good question. Would Zelenskyy normally have a big security entourage? Seems like being President of Ukraine would necessitate that? Zelenskyy has aged ten years in ten days 
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Mar 13, 2022 17:18
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Grouchio posted:But that was Borrell's fault for screwing up the messaging in the first place. State Dept is being super duper careful on the conflict. State was however not super duper careful on it's language re the planes. Poland, being Poland, floated the idea. Blinken gave the "green light". Pentagon immediately steps on the idea. Poland, feeling like the US isn't providing the leadership Poland wanted it to provide, and feeling like it was being "used", offers to fly to the planes to Ramstein so the US can hand it over - this was a dig at the US. The US is horrified at the idea. Essentially, Poland is tiffed that the US suggested that Poland should do what the US itself wasn't ready to do. It was incredibly mismanaged communication from State that did not need to occur.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:18
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Tomn posted:Eh, it seems a bit unclear to me. Yes, the whole thing is supposedly the narrative being developed, but the claim about China invading Taiwan was used in terms that suggested "This WAS happening, until we hosed it up." I can't read Russian myself so maybe the original comes off differently, but I looked it up and these are the Igor Sushko translation excerpts: Why do you keep posting this guy? he has no qualifications, expertise, or track record of being correct.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:19
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Navalny called for protests in Russia on Sunday earlier in the week, and it looks like some happened, but the police cracked down hard https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1503040279263252483?t=mNXv9ThvCdZd10SZ5l5WWQ&s=19 Lots of footage of riot cops dragging protesters away in Moscow and St Petersburg is floating around on Twitter, along with smaller protests in smaller towns. Occupied Kherson is still protesting too, even while soldiers hold them at gunpoint https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1503013043344662540?t=FYPsMBx0-aAiDn17ihJ2CA&s=19 Makes it clear any "referendum" vote would be bullshit
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Mar 13, 2022 17:19
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Tomn posted:Eh, it seems a bit unclear to me. Yes, the whole thing is supposedly the narrative being developed, but the claim about China invading Taiwan was used in terms that suggested "This WAS happening, until we hosed it up." I can't read Russian myself so maybe the original comes off differently, but I looked it up and these are the Igor Sushko translation excerpts: Yeah, the ambiguity is there in the original as well and the big grain of salt is necessary. My take is to read it considering an unreliable narrator with "professional deformation" -- someone being in the security apparatus and surrounded by this info might be more willing to believe it even if it's wrong. And as we saw Russian intel is not great. Again I am giving this the benefit of the doubt only because it gave Gulagu.net (a reliable whistleblower) legit information that predicted events before they unfolded. We'll have to see if anything else from the source (which seems to be coming from the same email) comes true
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Mar 13, 2022 17:20
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steinrokkan posted:There's no point giving Ukraine jets they wouldn't be able to use anyay I got the impression that the whole idea originated with a Polish bureaucrat that somehow got out into the wild before anyone on any side of it had vetted it to see if it was a useful or practical idea. There was never any actual proposal, just a half-formed idea.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:21
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https://twitter.com/Activatica/status/1503003002055057416
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Mar 13, 2022 17:21
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
Interesting that the track between Kyiv and Korosten, going through Irpin, is marked all green. It would be increedible if the trains are still running thorugh the northwestern Kyiv suburbs. I guess the rail bridge across the Bucha is not necessarily broken yet? I guess there can still be trains, if they take the long route south. catfry fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 17:22
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Phlegmish posted:Right, but do they have any desire to become a part of the DPR, let alone Russia? Akhmetov wasn't favoured by Russia, especially compared to Medvedchuk, a completely Russia-aligned oligarch. Some of the politicians from Akhmetov-backed Opposition Bloc were even sanctioned by Russia, so it's a bit of a turn that their regional Rada members are now trying to set up an occupational government in Kherson. This probably means that Akhmetov sees Russia's victory as more probable and is trying 'to adapt to the new reality', as the Opposition Bloc rep said in that Russian video, to avoid losing his lucrative businesses in the future. Alternatively, there might be a split among Akhmetov's cronies, who don't necessarily feel he can help them out during occupation, so they use their pro-Russian reputation the best way they can to ensure personal security.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:22
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Conspiratiorist posted:*Izyum, North of Donbass. And laffo another Su-34 bites the dust; I think that was 2 yesterday. Yes I hosed up. Also it's called Raisin from now on. catfry posted:Interesting that the track between Kyiv and Korosten, going through Irpin, is marked all green. It would be increedible if the trains are still running thorugh the northwestern Kyiv suburbs. I guess the rail bridge across the Bucha is not necessarily broken yet? I'm almost 100% sure I heard train traffic on one of the Kyiv streams earlier this morning (Ukraine time)
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Mar 13, 2022 17:23
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kemikalkadet posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqcp8vnrJ7k Problem is the Israeli rep that showed up for the negotiations previously told Zelensky to just surrender, and that went over as well a you'd expect.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:24
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Phlegmish posted:Do you have a source? There’s ~1.5 million displaced persons, from LDNR, in Ukraine and Russia each. Prewar population of the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts - 7 million, and they’re only partially occupied. Literally everyone young or able has left, and so you get “independence recognition” celebration with 5 people and Hollywood movie fight scene camera cuts.
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Mar 13, 2022 17:25
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