|
Nick Soapdish posted:https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503084360815108103?t=pio0GxL69O_R9VadKzgiig&s=19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzrYgDnewSI
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2022 23:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 06:25 |
|
|
Defenestrategy posted:how are you supposed to deal with this from a security stand point? Spotters? I assume the profile of UAV's make them small enough that radar isn't really gonna be able to pick them up? Speaking of WWII, bring back war tubas 
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2022 23:28
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:We all goof about Clancy posting, but man that hit on the Libyan terrorist camp…was pretty good at guessing what things would be like. In the book. The funny part is that Clancy didn't "come up with" any of this stuff, he basically just read all the official "this is how we will fight in the future" brochures and wrote fiction based on them. This seemed so out there because at the time there was a bunch of military analyst outsiders called "Reformers", who were arguing that all this high-end stuff was going to fail and what the US actually needed was a lot of simple, cheap, reliable, low-tech weapons. The official line was always pro-hightech, but since the military had little reason to go very public with their future plans, and wasn't really all that good at public engagement anyway, while the only weapon the "reformers" had was media and they were actually pretty good at getting interviewed by the right people, Clancy's books seemed to be very out there, instead of literally regurgitating the very well researched DoD views on what the future of warfare is going to be.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2022 23:38
|
|
|
Defenestrategy posted:how are you supposed to deal with this from a security stand point? Spotters? I assume the profile of UAV's make them small enough that radar isn't really gonna be able to pick them up? Considering they appear to just be sitting there in the middle of a field, I don't know what else they were expecting to happen. Which I guess isn't too surprising based off of the competence we've seen from the Russians so far. I can't help but think of combat training center rotations and how the fulltime OPFOR units make it seem like the Russians would just loving wreck our poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
Nick Soapdish posted:https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503084360815108103?t=pio0GxL69O_R9VadKzgiig&s=19 As far as I know there's been no indication or evidence that any parachute infantry landings have even been attempted (other than by Su-34 pilots, and there's definitely videos of those parachutes failing to open). The Russian military is clearly not all it was cracked up to be, but this dude is a racecar driver without any apparent special connections who is posting the most wild poo poo that people happen to want to hear. Like gently caress, I'm not an expert on anything but this twitter account is QAnon-grade.
|
|
#
?
Mar 13, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:In the book. Well he did good job making it look cool as poo poo. That scene and the satellite ones are some of my favorite and actually is why I wanted to go into intelligence analysis for the longest time. https://youtu.be/ZoVWedQOQl4 https://youtu.be/eujM6p7MtXA Also talk about a movie of a great cast. A lot of people who moved up significantly over the years.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:08
|
|
|
https://i.imgur.com/nxRYhp8.mp4 What's left of a BMP-3 after getting hit by a Javelin the previous day.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:29
|
|
|
Do we have any accurate idea of Russian losses to date? Like, number of tanks, trucks, troops, AFVs, that sort of thing?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:31
|
|
|
Wasabi the J posted:Speaking of WWII, bring back war tubas The Russian military saw your post and are raiding every store with lampshades and those dog neck collar things vets put on them to prevent them from picking at themselves after an injury right now.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:35
|
|
|
CBJSprague24 posted:https://twitter.com/BobFranklin3/status/1503112648174575617 Which is absolutely idiotic because whenever this ends, these companies are going to absolutely refuse to lease them anymore aircraft. Cythereal posted:https://i.imgur.com/nxRYhp8.mp4 Man I hate it when my model kit falls apart.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:37
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:Well he did good job making it look cool as poo poo. That scene and the satellite ones are some of my favorite and actually is why I wanted to go into intelligence analysis for the longest time. Yeah it and Hunt for Red October were just perfectly cast.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:37
|
|
|
Cimber posted:Do we have any accurate idea of Russian losses to date? Like, number of tanks, trucks, troops, AFVs, that sort of thing? https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html This is probably your best bet for equipment, everything is counted with a link to the source. As for personnel losses, maybe the official US estimates?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:39
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:Well he did good job making it look cool as poo poo. That scene and the satellite ones are some of my favorite and actually is why I wanted to go into intelligence analysis for the longest time. Except their helicopters appear to not have failed and had to be blown up and left behind.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:40
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Except their helicopters appear to not have failed and had to be blown up and left behind. Well, that was a SAS operation though 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:41
|
|
|
Xakura posted:Well, that was a SAS operation though Ah yes, true, reliable UK helicopters.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:43
|
|
|
Here's a great podcast episode from Friday that is still very relevant from Lawfare Pods (thanks upthreas to whoever recommended them). https://pca.st/episode/ae9383b4-f918-4c68-8a63-9164bba1eaac It is fantastic. Some of the key takeaways are: 1. Russia wanted to keep this as low key as possible, and thus ceded the information ops to Ukraine. 2. Just because Russia hasn't achieved air superiority yet doesn't mean they won't soon - they could be holding back on that and other capabilities because they're saving those for if NATO gets involved and they have to go up against us and NATO. 3. As reported ad nauseum, they're not doing well with logistics, and are heavily artillery reliant, and that takes a lot of logistics to keep supplied. 4. We should watch for a tactical pause in the next few weeks to build up enough resources for a sustained attack on Kyiv with adequate supplies. 5. Russia bypassing major cities and towns was a deliberate move to get further into the country and focus on the bigger objectives like Kharkiv and Kyiv which they thought would fall in days. 6. As reported ad nauseum, Russian Army officers including junior officers were informed so late / close to the invasion they had next to zero time to prepare. 7. One huge issue is that everyone / a lot of analysts thought Russia's military was this 12 foot giant. There's now a risk of the meta being that Russia is a 4 foot tall paper bear / tiger, and he cautions that that's not the case at all. He says they would be a lot more successful in a defensive war against NATO. There's a big risk in underestimating them in the future due to this boondoggle. 8. We're not seeing Ukranian losses. Constant Twitter, Tik Tok, and YouTube videos of countless Russian losses may be giving us a distorted picture of the battlefield. Russians aren't likely releasing video of every Ukranian tank or vehicle kill they get, so our view is distorted. There's a risk of us overestimating how well the Ukranians are doing due to how well their info ops / propaganda efforts are going. 9. Ukraine is buying time, and the longer they can drag this out and make it a battle of significant attrition on the Russian side, the better. Ceding territory and then conducting raids and ambushes on lines of communication and supply routes have worked well to stall Russiam efforts in a lot of areas.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:45
|
|
|
Defenestrategy posted:how are you supposed to deal with this from a security stand point? Spotters? I assume the profile of UAV's make them small enough that radar isn't really gonna be able to pick them up? The opposite. Decent radar will pick up a TB-2. Eyeballs, doubtful. For unarmed little guys like DJI phantoms etc, it’s different.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:49
|
|
|
CBJSprague24 posted:https://twitter.com/BobFranklin3/status/1503112648174575617 Never doubt the tenacity of aviation nerds to keep information up to date, no matter the circumstances. Somehow I can't help but feel proud.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:53
|
|
|
Bored As gently caress posted:7. One huge issue is that everyone / a lot of analysts thought Russia's military was this 12 foot giant. There's now a risk of the meta being that Russia is a 4 foot tall paper bear / tiger, and he cautions that that's not the case at all. He says they would be a lot more successful in a defensive war against NATO. There's a big risk in underestimating them in the future due to this boondoggle. Yeah, earlier I was trying to look over Russian logistical doctrines and it seems the combination of "logistics based heavily on internal rail lines with specialist corps devoted to making this work" and "artillery-heavy focus" both speaks to a defense-oriented army intended to operate from interior lines and pummel the hell out of invaders. That being said this is mostly going to be relevant if NATO ever decides to actively invade a nuclear-armed state, which is to say "probably never."
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:54
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Ah yes, true, reliable UK helicopters. nvm: I don't know what kind of bells UK operates. But it looks like a 412 Xakura fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 00:58
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1503156666090795011?s=21 Please let him get merked.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 01:27
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1503156666090795011?s=21 Maybe he's looking for his cat
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 01:40
|
|
|
CBJSprague24 posted:The Russian military saw your post and are raiding every store with lampshades and those dog neck collar things vets put on them to prevent them from picking at themselves after an injury right now. Too bad bich Ukraine saw this post and is gonna hang a fukken Bluetooth speaker behind it and blast this loud as poo poo at random https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk3IbKsNVpw
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 01:44
|
|
|
Wasabi the J posted:Too bad bich Ukraine saw this post and is gonna hang a fukken Bluetooth speaker behind it and blast this loud as poo poo at random The new Ukrainian pantheon: Zelenskyy and a Turkish drone.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 02:19
|
|
|
EasilyConfused posted:The new Ukrainian pantheon: Zelenskyy and a Turkish drone. Don't forget Saint Javelin.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 02:22
|
|
|
Jarmak posted:Don't forget Saint Javelin. Feel there should also be a space held for SAAB, the inventor of NLAW and Thales the disciple
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 02:32
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Which is absolutely idiotic because whenever this ends, these companies are going to absolutely refuse to lease them anymore aircraft. Nobody will ever lend russia ANYTHING again after this and will likely demand upfront payment for anything not easy to replace at all. Russia has burnt all of its goodwill over this, understandable as it is to try and keep things going on as long as they desperately can even if all these planes will be grounded from lack of parts as they're forced to cannabalize parts from more and more planes due to a lack of supplies.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:10
|
|
|
ChaseSP posted:Nobody will ever lend russia ANYTHING again after this and will likely demand upfront payment for anything not easy to replace at all. Russia has burnt all of its goodwill over this, understandable as it is to try and keep things going on as long as they desperately can even if all these planes will be grounded from lack of parts as they're forced to cannabalize parts from more and more planes due to a lack of supplies. nonsense when russia reclaims ukraine world must show us respect
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:19
|
|
|
Comrade Blyatlov posted:nonsense Post/username, etc.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:23
|
|
|
ChaseSP posted:Nobody will ever lend russia ANYTHING again after this and will likely demand upfront payment for anything not easy to replace at all. Russia has burnt all of its goodwill over this, understandable as it is to try and keep things going on as long as they desperately can even if all these planes will be grounded from lack of parts as they're forced to cannabalize parts from more and more planes due to a lack of supplies. The pico second sanctions are lifted capital will fly back in because it will be the wild west
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:27
|
|
|
Proud Christian Mom posted:The pico second sanctions are lifted capital will fly back in because it will be the wild west I dunno, the big oil companies yes as they don’t care but other internationals that may have assets seized or staff threatened will likely take a long time to come back if ever. Companies don’t like having investments arbitrarily seized.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:32
|
|
|
Bored As gently caress posted:Here's a great podcast episode from Friday that is still very relevant from Lawfare Pods (thanks upthreas to whoever recommended them). People were theorising the same thing about their lack of comms and EW assets a week ago, and tbh it sounds super implausible. Like no one is ever gonna be relying on cell phones and unencrypted civilian radios because they're holding back the good stuff for later. Same for air power. They're already having a bad time, it makes zero sense. e] In general it doesn't fit at all with what's happened anyway. Like this has clearly been a horrifically badly planned and operated invasion, but they're also doing some brain-genius 5d chess holding back assets to take on NATO next? Radical 90s Wizard fucked around with this message at 03:38 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:35
|
|
|
How would they have an air capability that is both capable of fending off NATO but not capable of decisively gaining air superiority in Ukraine? If pitting them against Ukraine would result in losses that would leave them unprepared for NATO then that doesn’t speak well to the capability.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:45
|
|
|
Tiny Timbs posted:How would they have an air capability that is both capable of fending off NATO but not capable of decisively gaining air superiority in Ukraine? AAMs that only target NATO insignia
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 03:47
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502987480827637764 Seizing foreign aircraft, paying foreign debts in monopoly money.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:22
|
|
|
half their foreign currency 
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:23
|
|
|
Radical 90s Wizard posted:People were theorising the same thing about their lack of comms and EW assets a week ago, and tbh it sounds super implausible. Like no one is ever gonna be relying on cell phones and unencrypted civilian radios because they're holding back the good stuff for later. Same for air power. They're already having a bad time, it makes zero sense. I'm not the one coming up with the ideas, I was summarizing an expert on the region said on the podcast I linked. You make a good point. He explains it better in the podcast than I did summarizing it. Basically says that a lot of the Ukranian anti air radar and SAM sites still up might be in areas where the Russians are going to bypass; that while Ukraine still has the ability to launch planes, it's not going to turn the tide of the war, among other things. He also says that the Russians do not do combined arms warfare well at all, so we're not seeing a ton of CAS. He also says they're not using a ton of guided munitions, which means they're either saving them for high value targets inside the cities once they're encircled and sieged, or they don't have enough of them in the first place and they're running out. Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 13:15 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:25
|
|
|
Bored As gently caress posted:I'm not the one coming up with the ideas, I was summarizing an expert on the region said on the podcast I linked. Anyone who thinks they're "saving the good stuff for NATO" is not an expert.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:28
|
|
|
CainFortea posted:Anyone who thinks they're "saving the good stuff for NATO" is not an expert. unless by good stuff they mean nukes, maybe
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 06:25 |
|
|
It's probably worth remembering that the US has historically valued airpower, precision strikes, and close collaboration between air and ground units a lot more than Russia — and more importantly, the US is so good at these kinds of missions specifically because the US Air Force and Navy have had to continually perform them in combat environments. Dating all the way back to World War II, the US developed sophisticated equipment for precision bombing, early guided munitions, and forward air control for tactical airstrikes. In the immediate aftermath of World War II, some of these capabilities began to degrade, but the Korean War immediately kickstarted the need to retain and develop these capabilities. The Vietnam War would make this even more apparent, as specific hard targets like the Thanh Hóa Bridge proved to be incredibly resilient against conventional unguided munitions, and drove the development and deployment of the next generation of guided munitions and doctrine. Institutional knowledge is a funny thing. Lessons that seem incredibly obvious or hard-won can end up easily forgotten. In military settings, where tens or hundreds of thousands of soldiers can cycle in and out each year, retaining institutional knowledge is even more of a challenge. A prime example of this is the Forrestal fire: Only twenty years removed from World War II, DC training on the USS Forrestal had degraded to the point where a single accident nearly destroyed an entire supercarrier. For better and for worse, the US Military has been directly involved in numerous conflicts against conventional (And unconventional) militaries since the end of World War II: Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Iraq again, Libya... and as a result, the US has had both repeated opportunities to learn valuable lessons about fighting conventional opponents, and an institutional incentive to retain those lessons over time. Meanwhile, the Soviet and then Russian military have been involved in plenty of fighting since World War II, but rarely against conventional opponents. Russia has years of fighting against insurgents in places like Afghanistan and Chechnya, but its only conventional opponent has been... China, in the 1969 border skirmishes. As a result, Russia has literally never had to fight a war against an enemy with an air force or air defense network, and is likely only now finding that it's a lot harder than they thought it was — and that even having massive numerical superiority and a technological advantage can still fall flat against an intelligent and determined opponent. This is all to say: If Russia's air force is having problems eliminating the Ukrainian air force and air defense network, in coordinating with ground units, and with dropping precision munitions, it's likely not because they're holding anything back. The simplest answer is that their doctrine and training were insufficient to accomplish the missions they were assigned, and they're now having to learn a lot of very hard lessons very, very quickly, against an opponent that was trained and advised by a military that's spent literally the last-half century doing these kinds of missions.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 04:38
|
|
