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no, i mean that's possible but it's not what i'm talking about. i'm saying if both win their seats & libs lose the election (with morrison still as leader), then the leadership contest will almost certainly be frydenberg/dutton (unless one loses their seat). whoever wins that would come down to the balance within the party after losing a bunch of seats, but dutton's probably more likely but if there's a challenge before the election i'm speculating it could end up being from someone else, with the scenario being that frydenberg & dutton don't want to damage their future ambitions but desperate backbenchers convince someone else to go for it, but that's just wild speculation
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Mar 13, 2022 06:06
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People don't like scomo but it's nothing on the public opinion of potato man
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Mar 13, 2022 06:43
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Dutton is good because when he smiles you can literally feel your skin up and crawl off, instead of just being mildly uncomfortable watching a standard lib mimic human emotion.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:53
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Deflection and blame shifting: How Scott Morrison responded to a national emergency: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gs_PlfI0tw tl;dw: gently caress Mr Potato Head. gently caress the PM for waiting a week for an annoucnable. gently caress the PM for ignoring climate change. gently caress the PM for blaming labor labor labor. gently caress the PM for not accepting responsibility AND blaming the ADF. Comstar fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 10:24
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I am now taking nominees for creating a legitimate election edition thread.
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Mar 13, 2022 11:54
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Been a while since I could bring myself to look at an aus poll, but these numbers are currently pretty good ALP's way right?
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Mar 13, 2022 12:04
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I heard the last time a poll had Labor primary vote above 40 was when Rudd was PM. Is this true?
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Mar 13, 2022 12:07
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albanese being equal on preferred pm (he was briefly ahead in jan/feb 2020 with the bushfires) is pretty big, that skews heavily to incumbents and shorten never got close to turnbull or morrison on that (except for a single poll immediately after morrison became pm) and no there's been a fair few polls with labor primary vote at 41% since rudd, this is the fourth newspoll to have that figure this year, and there was the occasional one with that figure under shorten (even back in 2015 before the polls were definitely broken in the lead up to the 2019 election) lih fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 12:16
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The Australian Democrats will form government before Labor.
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Mar 13, 2022 12:25
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This has happened before, and Labor has a reputation for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for a reason. Usually by complete inaction while the Liberals actually try. We'll see how it goes, though.
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Mar 13, 2022 12:30
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Ghost Leviathan posted:This has happened before, and Labor has a reputation for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for a reason. Usually by complete inaction while the Liberals actually try. We'll see how it goes, though. I mean if it's Morrison trying, well that's going to go well for pretty much everyone but the libs. But yeah ALP rarely seem to actually want to win elections.
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Mar 13, 2022 12:40
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at the very least, the poll numbers are a fair bit better than they were for labor in 2019 and there are much more direct & obvious reasons why the government would really be that unpopular, rather than just "they barely won the last election and never really seemed to be actively popular"
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Mar 13, 2022 12:56
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https://twitter.com/theheraldsun/status/1502524795757293570
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Mar 13, 2022 13:32
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Gonna go out on a limb and suggest this account was written by an ex cop?
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Mar 13, 2022 13:34
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Are people not aware what a bush ranger was? He wore a suit of 'bullet proof' armour, for what? Fashion!
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Mar 13, 2022 13:47
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First they cancel ghengis Kahn and now our Ned? Political correctness gone mad imo
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Mar 13, 2022 13:56
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Konomex posted:Are people not aware what a bush ranger was? He wore a suit of 'bullet proof' armour, for what? Fashion! he was just a larrikin who loved his mum and shooting cops
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Mar 13, 2022 13:59
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Animal Friend posted:The Australian Democrats will form government before Labor. Oh this is your re-reg?
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Mar 13, 2022 15:00
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https://twitter.com/TamePunk/status/1502896173744795655?s=20&t=KIKQVIVOdaaYUh5aGYUm9w Amazing.
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Mar 13, 2022 22:27
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Breetai posted:https://twitter.com/TamePunk/status/1502896173744795655?s=20&t=KIKQVIVOdaaYUh5aGYUm9w  Bitterly disappointed to wake up to yet another day where Palmer hasn't succumbed to covid.
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Mar 13, 2022 23:14
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i was never a fan of shane warne when he was alive. but his death, complete with crazy diets and last-minute vegemite product placement, has convinced me that as a cohesive whole, the man's life was legendary
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Mar 14, 2022 00:13
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the adoration of ned kelly by white australia is funny because in every other way they're such screaming babies about crime
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Mar 14, 2022 00:14
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mahershalalhashbaz posted:the adoration of ned kelly by white australia is funny because in every other way they're such screaming babies about crime Who are these people that adore, let alone actually think about, Ned Kelly.
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Mar 14, 2022 00:18
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JBP posted:Who are these people that adore, let alone actually think about, Ned Kelly.
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Mar 14, 2022 00:22
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JBP posted:Who are these people that adore, let alone actually think about, Ned Kelly. The Peter Carey novel was pretty good, maybe people thought it was actually true
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Mar 14, 2022 00:30
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Jezza of OZPOS posted:First they cancel ghengis Kahn and now our Ned? Political correctness gone mad imo TIL that Canadian hero Sir Isaac Brock (killed some Yanks in 1812) was friends with a Captain Thomas Fremantle. Thomas's son, Admiral Sir Charles Howe Fremantle, sailed some ships up the Swan River to help Lt Gov Stirling found Perth and Western Australia. If that's not enough of a crime, consider: quote:In April 1826 Fremantle was charged with raping a 15-year-old girl. His family is said to have paid off witnesses and leant on the judiciary to avoid scandal. So cancel Fremantle, IMO. Or all of WA, whatever.
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Mar 14, 2022 00:43
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JBP posted:Who are these people that adore, let alone actually think about, Ned Kelly. The 2/3s of the caravan and camping show patrons with moron Labe car stickers
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Mar 14, 2022 01:02
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There's another anti-vax rally in Brisbane happening right now, literally tens of people outside parliament, with some 'holistic healing' guy setting up a stage & speakers. Diverse mix of young dreadlocks, boomers with 'end the mandate' signs and the odd PUP t-shirt. It's also first day back on QUT campus after the floods so the place is already packed with students.
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Mar 14, 2022 01:16
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eXXon posted:
Agreed. Also since the footy team relocated, they should rename from Fremantle, to the Cockburn Dockers They could be known as the Cockers
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Mar 14, 2022 02:47
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Anidav posted:I am now taking nominees for creating a legitimate election edition thread. For the SA election
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Mar 14, 2022 03:15
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birdstrike posted:For the SA election 
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Mar 14, 2022 03:30
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If you want.
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Mar 14, 2022 03:37
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I vote anidav in the SA election. His positivity in the face of incredible adversity (modding SA posters) is an inspiration
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Mar 14, 2022 04:14
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Breetai posted:https://twitter.com/TamePunk/status/1502896173744795655?s=20&t=KIKQVIVOdaaYUh5aGYUm9w That cat has the biggest ‘gently caress my life expression’ on its face.
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Mar 14, 2022 04:21
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Mar 14, 2022 05:01
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dr_rat posted:Been a while since I could bring myself to look at an aus poll, but these numbers are currently pretty good ALP's way right? When "the polls got it wrong" in 2019 and Labor lost, they led the Liberals by only 2 points and had been trending downward for the past six months. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...y_preferred.svg Right now they lead the Liberals by 10 points and have been trending up for eight months. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...y_preferred.svg There's a limit to what can be explained away by margins of error and shy Tories. And anything can happen between now and election day but it's hard to imagine anything that wouldn't be a hit to the incumbent. edit - Labor currently has about the same 2PP lead that Tony Abbott did a few months before the 2013 election (he dipped a little going into it) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Australian_federal_election#Opinion_polls freebooter fucked around with this message at 09:17 on Mar 14, 2022 |
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Mar 14, 2022 09:08
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the 2019 error was due to herding (where the polling companies all got results they thought were outliers and panicked to tweak their data until it looked like they thought it should) so hopefully they'll have learned their lesson this time. there's definitely more variation in the polls despite a clear trend favouring labor more than last time. essential and resolve have been less favourable to labor (but resolve aren't doing TPP for stupid reasons so you have to look up bonham or someone like that interpreting what it actually means) so the danger would be they're spot on & things are still very close, and newspoll / morgan are totally off.
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Mar 14, 2022 09:55
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scomos saved the scooner
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Mar 14, 2022 10:47
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I think while national polls are useful, unless there is genuinely a big swing (which have historically mostly been needed for actual changes of govt) it comes down to individual marginal seats, and sometimes the amount of pork or national messaging actually intended for relatively small groups of voters in marginal seats is not that visible in the national media. This is possibly why the LNP is more concerned about these independents in rich suburbs - because their polling is telling them enough people won’t vote Labour or Greens in those seats - ergo safe - but the indies are more of an X factor. I hope in Greens circles they have some long term strategy aimed at those seats because there seems to be little space in high level policy goals between some of the independents and the Greens, especially as the Greens have arguably moved more towards the mainstream in terms of policy while the two majors have actually moved away because of the marginal battlegrounds and Murdoch dominated media. I also wonder if the the Greens branding is more of a liability than an asset for their actual policy platform now.
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Mar 14, 2022 11:01
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