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To get it out of the way, this is propaganda and Photoshop is a thing. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1501797039264473088 That is definitely a picture of a never-opened parachute.
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Mar 14, 2022 04:38
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Bored As gently caress posted:Here's a great podcast episode from Friday that is still very relevant from Lawfare Pods (thanks upthreas to whoever recommended them). This is by far one of my bigger concerns with all of this.
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Mar 14, 2022 04:42
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Your biggest concern is that the Russian military has a home field advantage? No poo poo.
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Mar 14, 2022 04:49
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The tactics makes more sense when you see Ukraine as a hostage in a bank robbery gone bad. I'M THE ONE WITH THE GUN OK? Organized crime has laundered billions and facilitated illegal services from all sorts of entities who do not need the exposure. Putin was handed the keys to the world's 2nd superpower at EXACTLY the right moment and has clearly demonstrated what connections he values most, and that is the one that gets him czar. The analysts can't make sense of poo poo because they're approaching this like they have been a loving spy or partaken in a harder crime than some bumps in college. Putin was running protection on a oil racket for the state owned gas companies of eastern Europe. BILLIONS have been laundered throughout the world and Putin basically always flashed a gun every time someone gets involved in "their thing.* Wasabi the J fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Mar 14, 2022 |
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Mar 14, 2022 04:54
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Yeah, I'm not thinking NATO is about to wage an aggressive war against Russia on Russian territory any time soon.A Festivus Miracle posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502987480827637764
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Mar 14, 2022 04:54
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I'm not thinking NATO is about to wage an aggressive war against Russia on Russian territory any time soon. they thought we'd just all roll over and let them do it like we always have before.
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Mar 14, 2022 04:55
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LRADIKAL posted:Your biggest concern is that the Russian military has a home field advantage? No poo poo. No, that some dipshit heritage foundation moron is going to start getting stupid ideas, like "Russia is totally a pushover now so maybe it's no big deal if we enter a shooting war with them? I mean Ukraine sure showed them, imagine what we could do!"
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Mar 14, 2022 05:00
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Cugel the Clever posted:Yeah, I'm not thinking NATO is about to wage an aggressive war against Russia on Russian territory any time soon. The only possible way NATO would willingly enter Russian soil is if there were absolute guarantees that the nuke stockpile could be secured before launch. The only situation I could imagine is a 100% percent military coup/civil war with a clear request for NATO or western assistance. Even then, it would likely take weeks of fighting to convince anyone that intervention would be anything less than suicidal. In other words. Russia likely will never have to fight another defensive war it doesn't otherwise manufacture against itself.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:06
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Handsome Ralph posted:No, that some dipshit heritage foundation moron is going to start getting stupid ideas, like "Russia is totally a pushover now so maybe it's no big deal if we enter a shooting war with them? I mean Ukraine sure showed them, imagine what we could do!" It's not a reason to go in there shooting, but it is a reason to start rethinking how much we really need to spend. If you start with the assumption that NATO isn't going to try to invade Russia then what is the point exactly? Ukraine with a military budget of like $6b, even if they got 10x that in foreign aid, has the Russian military in a stalemate. Is anyone seriously afraid about the fulda gap after this? Across NATO there's probably like a trillion dollars a year going to defense and after the last couple weeks if that doesn't go down it's only more obvious that money is a weapons industry subsidy rather than money practically spent.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:13
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Arsenic Lupin posted:To get it out of the way, this is propaganda and Photoshop is a thing. What of that do you think is photoshopped? Also it's not clear that the headline is referring to only the photo or other incidents, how many cases, and so forth. Anyways to me that doesn't look like a properly opened parachute. Regardless either they have found cases of ejected pilots having messed up parachutes that didn't work properly and are trying to scare other Russian pilots, or they haven't and are trying to scare Russian pilots. So either way I'm fine with it.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:20
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:It's not a reason to go in there shooting, but it is a reason to start rethinking how much we really need to spend. If you start with the assumption that NATO isn't going to try to invade Russia then what is the point exactly? Ukraine with a military budget of like $6b, even if they got 10x that in foreign aid, has the Russian military in a stalemate. Is anyone seriously afraid about the fulda gap after this? Across NATO there's probably like a trillion dollars a year going to defense and after the last couple weeks if that doesn't go down it's only more obvious that money is a weapons industry subsidy rather than money practically spent. On the other hand, the non-monetary price Ukraine is paying is probably more than anyone would like to bear and they would prefer to be sure that any attempted invasion be seen off much more quickly and decisively. The US could probably see it off quickly enough if they got involved via NATO, but it's a question how much damage could be done to the border countries before the US arrives in force. That being said I'm not sure even Putin would be wild enough to try and invade an actual NATO member.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:22
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What's the current assessment of the Russian nuclear stockpile? Has it degraded enough to the point that idiots might try to resurrect the early Cold War belief in US survivability?
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Mar 14, 2022 05:40
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NEXTA has been publishing trash-tier rumors and giving not just misleading paraphrases, but straight up lying about what more credible sources wrote and assume people won’t read the source document or watch the source interview. They’ll publish any ole thing if it makes Russia look bad or sounds cool for Ukraine.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:43
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mlmp08 posted:NEXTA has been publishing trash-tier rumors and giving not just misleading paraphrases, but straight up lying about what more credible sources wrote and assume people won’t read the source document or watch the source interview. They’ll publish any ole thing if it makes Russia look bad or sounds cool for Ukraine. Honestly I just wish somebody would upload and translate (even just the titles) of Telegram videos being posted daily. Although I guess that is Rob Lee if you follow him on Twitter.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:47
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GD_American posted:What's the current assessment of the Russian nuclear stockpile? Has it degraded enough to the point that idiots might try to resurrect the early Cold War belief in US survivability? TL;DR: No one wants to gently caress around and find out. It's very hard to shoot down even subsonic cruise missiles when radars are blinded or destroyed from a first strike. They have 2-3 boomers out at any given time, and the Topol-M has had enough launches to prove it works. The R-36M2 (otherwise known as the SS-18 SATAN) is still a thing and it carries 10x1Mt (the 20Mt variants have "officially" been phased out). And I'm not even going to get into the Doomsday Torpedoes.  I'm not very keen on seeing what happens when a ruined nuclear power gets desperate enough to try the "buy this magazine or we'll shoot this dog" strategy. Just in case that's too obscure a reference: 
BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 05:57 on Mar 14, 2022 |
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Mar 14, 2022 05:54
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Here’s the actual scary thought is there anyone in the chain of command that would stop Putin. Like I fully believe if Trump had decided to go totally loving Loco and launch a nuclear strike in December that the military might refuse to follow through and at the very least delay the crap out of it.
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Mar 14, 2022 05:58
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mlmp08 posted:NEXTA has been publishing trash-tier rumors and giving not just misleading paraphrases, but straight up lying about what more credible sources wrote and assume people won’t read the source document or watch the source interview. They’ll publish any ole thing if it makes Russia look bad or sounds cool for Ukraine. What's even better is that they get a ton of funding from Belarusian state media and opposition parties. They publish poo poo for both sides, and do absolutely zero corroboration or checking. It's the wild west for reporting on the ground with a lot of local outlets, but; Nexta is The Chive level journalism.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:00
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LMAO I wonder if the final Yankee white clearance secret is anyone who pushes the button is ignored.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:01
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So Edward Snowden is still quiet? I guess he wouldn’t want to offend his master?
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Mar 14, 2022 06:05
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So Edward Snowden is still quiet? I guess he wouldn’t want to offend his master? I'm honestly surprised he wasn't sent home hogtied with an apple in his mouth to distract the media during the Trump Impeachment proceedings. He can't be that useful anymore.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:07
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Bored As gently caress posted:I'm not the one coming up with the ideas, I was summarizing an expert on the region said on the podcast I linked. Oh yea I totally wasn't directing any of that at you, just quoting your summary.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:07
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So Edward Snowden is still quiet? I guess he wouldn’t want to offend his master? He gave the plausible excuse of "I'm shutting up because I got it so wrong", which also has the neat side effect of keeping him alive
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Mar 14, 2022 06:08
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https://youtu.be/QwIknv0eMQA
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Mar 14, 2022 06:13
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Re: Russian failure to degrade ukranian ada net. This is my lovely uniformed take but: Ukraine having a ton of soviet style long range and mobile intermediate ADA assets is actually a huge doctrinal problem that the Russian air force is ill trained and equipped to deal with. Working under the assumption that they've planned and procured to fight NATO which is much less heavily invested in those capabilities; and more reliant on having air supremacy.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:23
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GD_American posted:He gave the plausible excuse of "I'm shutting up because I got it so wrong", which also has the neat side effect of keeping him alive What did he get wrong?
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Mar 14, 2022 06:25
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BIG HEADLINE posted:I'm honestly surprised he wasn't sent home hogtied with an apple in his mouth to distract the media during the Trump Impeachment proceedings. He can't be that useful anymore. The guy who broke the sound barrier living to 97 led to some interesting hot takes https://mobile.twitter.com/genchuckyeager/status/767208899095191552
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Mar 14, 2022 06:25
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Dick Ripple posted:What did he get wrong? Frying pan to fire thing.
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Mar 14, 2022 06:34
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That mortar makes me nervous for their fingers
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Mar 14, 2022 06:37
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I would like to believe that Edward Snowden was one of those dudes who was like a secret leftist who saw what the US Gov was doing and decided that actually tankie propaganda was right, but has recently had a come to Jesus moment wrt the Ukraine Invasion. Also, not commenting on this invasion is probably the thing keeping him from becoming dead, and also having not been relevant to anything in like a decade.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:16
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LRADIKAL posted:Your biggest concern is that the Russian military has a home field advantage? No poo poo. I think it's worth mentioning that the most insane warhawk officers I've served with, "we'll be at war with Russia and China simultaneously in 5 years" types, still view that conflict from a defensive standpoint. No one in NATO is giving any consideration to an offensive war in Russia in TYOOL 2022.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:31
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Dick Ripple posted:What did he get wrong? He was pretty big on the Russia isn't going to invade side. But honestly I respect that he just said he was wrong and going to shut up now instead of doubling down.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:39
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Marshal Prolapse posted:So Edward Snowden is still quiet? I guess he wouldn’t want to offend his master? He made some tweet saying he was wrong.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:56
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A Festivus Miracle posted:I would like to believe that Edward Snowden was one of those dudes who was like a secret leftist who saw what the US Gov was doing and decided that actually tankie propaganda was right, but has recently had a come to Jesus moment wrt the Ukraine Invasion. I know two people who worked with him and claim he was always an arrogant rear end in a top hat "I know better than you" type despite evidence to the contrary. It's possible these opinions were formed after he achieved infamy, but I also don't have any reason to not believe them.
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Mar 14, 2022 07:56
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Whistleblowers are almost always assholes, it goes with the territory. You kind of have to be in order to be comfortable with disrupting anything so drastically: it’s guaranteed that apart from any risk to yourself, you’ll be loving things up for a bunch of people you know personally in the process, some of whom wont be at fault but will still be collateral damage. Usually the overall benefits to society outweigh that damage, but people who value social relationships highly tend not to be the ones who blow the whistle and burn the whole thing down.
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Mar 14, 2022 08:50
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Arsenic Lupin posted:To get it out of the way, this is propaganda and Photoshop is a thing. That looks like a very tangled parachute, deployed ≠ working correctly. 
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Mar 14, 2022 09:35
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Just Another Lurker posted:That looks like a very tangled parachute, deployed ≠ working correctly. I think that was  indicated by the "definitely"
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Mar 14, 2022 09:54
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CommieGIR posted:Someone really chose this moment to wear their Ahegao hoodie? Dazzle camouflage
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Mar 14, 2022 10:16
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E. Double post
ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Mar 14, 2022 |
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Mar 14, 2022 12:31
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1503331460555677696?t=peICINMt4AV3-0O-qXrg3w&s=19 It is an explosion, it is in Kyiv, and that's a Ukrainian pensioner ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 13:09 on Mar 14, 2022 |
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Mar 14, 2022 12:32
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:It is an explosion, it is in Kyiv, and that's a Ukrainian pensioner Judging from the elevation I'm going to say it's being filmed from the tractor.
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