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Alchenar posted:I would be fairly confident betting that the constant Naval activity outside of Odessa is just a demonstration to force the Ukrainians to maintain a force there to defend it. With the option to actually commit to an assault if they move away. Not to mention: Its doubtful that they can supply any forces landed at Odessa for an extended period, so unless they are just dropping infantry, good luck to them.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:20
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Whether it's a Lada Neva or an Oka, Wikipedia says both have a zero out of four star safety rating from Russian reviewers. In one test, the dummy in the passenger seat of the Lada Neva was hit by the glove compartment so hard it would have caused a traumatic brain injury. Humans beings should not be in these cars.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:23
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Another hospital as collateral damage - took it over rather than bombing it this time so that's...progress? Of a kind? https://twitter.com/anastasia_maga/status/1503710484272500737?t=YWGoAi8QFy6pmyrcrqQG8w&s=19
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Mar 15, 2022 15:24
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CommieGIR posted:Not to mention: Its doubtful that they can supply any forces landed at Odessa for an extended period, so unless they are just dropping infantry, good luck to them. In theory if Odessa were captured they could supply it by sea. One conceivable "backup plan" for Russia in this war would be to attempt to "just" conquer Ukraine's black sea coastline, cutting off their trade opportunities. If Russia's pivoting to that then a capture of Odessa would be indicated, but I really don't see how they manage it. An opposed amphibious landing into an urban environment is just about the most difficult offensive military operation I can imagine.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:25
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Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1503694724657553413?t=0Hp6ony9TY5WMdd6FtWOAw&s=19
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Mar 15, 2022 15:26
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:An opposed amphibious landing into an urban environment is just about the most difficult offensive military operation I can imagine. It could be an opposed amphibious landing into an urban environment backed by a mountain range! Otherwise known as the Taiwan problem.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:28
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Alchenar posted:It could be an opposed amphibious landing into an urban environment backed by a mountain range! Otherwise known as the Taiwan problem. China to Russia: "You should invade Odessa via the sea, just for kicks. No reason."
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Mar 15, 2022 15:31
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own As long as angry trees wreck the poo poo of the potato wizard in Minsk...
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Mar 15, 2022 15:31
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:In theory if Odessa were captured they could supply it by sea. "We have invested billions in what the best landing force in history. I can tell that Admiral Vatnik has spent many hours perfecting the force, as he has a deep tan from all the hours out on the deck."
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Mar 15, 2022 15:31
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Kursk Kursk KURSK
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Mar 15, 2022 15:32
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Alchenar posted:I would be fairly confident betting that the constant Naval activity outside of Odessa is just a demonstration to force the Ukrainians to maintain a force there to defend it. With the option to actually commit to an assault if they move away. CommieGIR posted:Not to mention: Its doubtful that they can supply any forces landed at Odessa for an extended period, so unless they are just dropping infantry, good luck to them. Both good points, but still impossible to rule it out, just due to all the other stupidity on the Russian side. If they are landing ships that's about 50 tanks and 1700 troops if they're these ones https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship which seems slightly less stupid then airdropping special forces thing they were doing before... maybe less stupid. ...possibly not. Still seems like 0% chance of it actually working unless they're not actually tying to take the city and have some other goal. KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own This seems like one of the most clueless middle management ideas I've ever heard. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Mar 15, 2022 |
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Mar 15, 2022 15:33
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Thread is  due to images of destruction. https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1503499716209754115?s=20&t=OGH7qwSNl52By_PCQ1PXKQ Mick Ryan's excellent daily analysis is up. It's pretty scathing of Russian generalship. He is not predicting a short war, though does predict that Russian offensive operations are days away from halting. Tomn posted:Eh, that’s kind of a military history myth from what I understand. For WW2 at least, especially in the later stages of the war most battles between Germany and Russia were fought at near parity in raw numbers - Soviet Deep Battle doctrine was at least as sophisticated if not more so than anything the Germans had. The whole “endless waves of conscript fodder” thing came about in part from German generals writing post-war memoirs trying to explain A: Why they were great generals really and B: How they lost despite this. It played into NATO stereotypes about Russia, and so here we are. Even today, a Russian tank company has 10 tanks: 3 platoons of 3 tanks each, and the company commander in a tank. US tank companies have 14 tanks: 3 platoons of 4 tanks each, and the commander and XO each have a tank.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:33
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Comstar posted:Apoligies if this has already been discussed, but I didn't see it. I miss 200-800 comments a day in the thread
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Mar 15, 2022 15:36
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own i am excited to see the 20 post twitter threads from logging infrastructure experts about how they definitely don't have the capacity to do this
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Mar 15, 2022 15:37
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Alchenar posted:I would be fairly confident betting that the constant Naval activity outside of Odessa is just a demonstration to force the Ukrainians to maintain a force there to defend it. With the option to actually commit to an assault if they move away. You say that, but this is the same military that dumped a bunch of highly trained airborne troops behind enemy lines and let them get annihilated in the opening weekend. Multiple times. Also, as has been said in this thread, there isn't much cohesion between the branches in the Russian military and the Russian Navy is probably chomping at the bit to get involved. That said, the Ukrainians know they're coming. It could turn into a slaughter.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:37
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CommieGIR posted:Not to mention: Its doubtful that they can supply any forces landed at Odessa for an extended period, so unless they are just dropping infantry, good luck to them. When has that stopped them before. Like I think this is a desperate gamble for them. KitConstantine posted:Another hospital as collateral damage - took it over rather than bombing it this time so that's...progress? Of a kind? They are doing that horror show in Chechnya but reversed
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Mar 15, 2022 15:37
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In "unsurprising in terms of content but surprising in terms of blatantcy" news, the judge in the Alexei Navalny trial was literally on the Kremlin's speed dial https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1503734364525535241?t=_IkYy6hjOx0g-_-7IvasRg&s=19
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Mar 15, 2022 15:38
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own Putin found the "pillage" button and started mashing it on every turn.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:38
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Comstar posted:Sorry, the point of posting it here and not the Clancychat thread is that this is allegedly from the FSB analyst who complained that invading Ukraine had has much chance of happening as an Asteroid strike on Russia. Which I think was true. So... this guy predicted that there wouldn't be war, which makes him worth listening? I beg your pardon?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:38
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own They're going full Cromwell. Never go full Cromwell.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:39
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fatherboxx posted:Third one is Oka, absolutely the worst automobile ever made in Russia and a deathtrap. Thought they went extinct about a decade ago but life finds a way. Is that not a Niva?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:39
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eke out posted:i am excited to see the 20 post twitter threads from logging infrastructure experts about how they definitely don't have the capacity to do this Wood is very small and light and easy to transport, no?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:39
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Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1503740292083884042?s=20&t=VBGRojZtrwOzI7f3uwLqUw
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Mar 15, 2022 15:41
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eke out posted:i am excited to see the 20 post twitter threads from logging infrastructure experts about how they definitely don't have the capacity to do this Wasting precious manpower and logistical capacity on chopping down trees and transporting the wood (which isn't a hugely valuable trade good by volume I assume) out of the country, when you are already struggling with both, seems like a great idea.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:41
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:they eventually got their poo poo together but it took a ludicrous amount of deaths first. Soviet military casualties in ww2 were something like 9 million. Someone in the thread boiled it down earlier: Eh, that was more during the early days of the war when Moscow (and frankly, most other people in the Red Army) didn't know what exactly was happening and everyone was reacting in a panic. I wouldn't say it was standard Russian doctrine, and I wouldn't say that Russian war plans were built explicitly off the idea that "Yeah we can afford to waste lives." If anything I might say that Russian war plans relied less on "loving hell there are a lot of Russians" and more on "loving hell there is a lot of Russia." Strategic depth gives you time to unfuck yourself from an early shock and work out options if things are going badly. But that brings us back around into issues of NATO expansion and Russian buffer states so OH GOD WHAT HAVE I DONE ABORT ABORT
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Mar 15, 2022 15:45
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CommieGIR posted:China to Russia: "You should invade Odessa via the sea, just for kicks. No reason." * One day later * China: "Oof! Ok, let's not do that."
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Mar 15, 2022 15:45
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Tigey posted:Wasting precious manpower and logistical capacity on chopping down trees and transporting the wood (which isn't a hugely valuable trade good by volume I assume) out of the country, when you are already struggling with both, seems like a great idea. sell the wood to whom exactly also logging: famously an easy task that requires little logistical support
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Mar 15, 2022 15:46
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Ikasuhito posted:* One day later * More like China to USA: "I am helping!"
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Mar 15, 2022 15:47
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Pook Good Mook posted:You say that, but this is the same military that dumped a bunch of highly trained airborne troops behind enemy lines and let them get annihilated in the opening weekend. Multiple times. Navy is by far the least competent branch of their military, by the way.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:48
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? To me it seems more like lost in translation recognition that they can't just walk into NATO tomorrow, that there's a long and potentially difficult process ahead of them to make it happen, not that it's an impossible tease
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Mar 15, 2022 15:49
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Tigey posted:Wasting precious manpower and logistical capacity on chopping down trees and transporting the wood (which isn't a hugely valuable trade good by volume I assume) out of the country, when you are already struggling with both, seems like a great idea. Also those logging trucks are 100% going to get stuck in the mud. Some lucky farmers with tractors are going to get just a whole bunch of fire wood I guess. Good for them.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Navy is by far the least competent branch of their military, by the way. I thought the Russian Submarine corps was actually fairly competent?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:50
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503744554444505093
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Mar 15, 2022 15:50
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? Makes sense. Putin won’t give up though because he will want them isolated from EU too and that won’t happen.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:50
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? I doubt it. Russia also wants Ukraine to give up on the EU. Not to mention it's not like from what I understand Ukraine can't just add that to their constitution without a referendum so it's not like Zelensky can just do that unilaterally.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:51
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own This is just petty, Christ. Either that or it's the stupidest plan to cut down on tank ambushes ever. Not to say that this is in any way a feasible plan, but do we have any environmentalists in here who can speak to the environmental degradation that might result from the kind of large-scale deforestation they're talking about here?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:51
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? I don't think joining NATO was ever in the cards (especially right now) so yes if that can be made to be perceived as a concession that would be a win for Ukraine. But I think Russia wants more - no EU, no military, no counterintelligence service - so then over time it could more easily infect the political system with Kremlin stooges. Ynglaur posted:Thread is Saw this yesterday, rather sobering reading. His point that if Putin's Plan C is just to stay where they are and destroy everything they can, this could stretch on for years and it's hard to imagine that calls for further intervention won't escalate over that time.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:51
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Hunter Biden and Hillary? Russia's been watching Fox News.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:51
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Comstar posted:Sorry, the point of posting it here and not the Clancychat thread is that this is allegedly from the FSB analyst who complained that invading Ukraine had has much chance of happening as an Asteroid strike on Russia. So, something that happens occasionally? https://earthsky.org/space/chelyabinsk-meteor-exploded-over-russia-feb-15-2013/
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Mar 15, 2022 15:52
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Nenonen posted:So... this guy predicted that there wouldn't be war, which makes him worth listening? I beg your pardon? tbf, Russia's pretty extensive, they probably get hit by small meteorites all the time
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