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Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Barrel Cactaur posted:

Remdesivir has decent results but the problem is that it's expensive and must be applied before the case progresses to have effect. Ideally it would be applied to someone infected who has early symptoms with high risk factors for long term or terminal disease. Unfortunately hospital/insurance buracracy often prevents that without strong pushes from care givers. So often it's held up until the case progresses and by that point it pointless (but done anyway). Hospital buracracy struggles with preventative medicine outside of screening.

Tldr it needs to be applied speculatively and hospitals struggle with that.

As to bioweapons Russia is probably more vulnerable to the consequences of their actions than the well funded healthcare systems of neighbor countries. Russian healthcare is in the toilet already, and do you want to roll the dice that your secret vaccine project against your own bioweapon wasn't grifted to death? It would be actually suicidal.

I don't think Remdesivir works against smallpox, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

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Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
I like that, NATO can team up with Russia again to stop the Nazi menace, just like in the good old times.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

D34THROW
Jan 29, 2012

RETAIL RETAIL LISTEN TO ME BITCH ABOUT RETAIL
:rant:

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

:perfect: I almost pissed myself suppressing laughter in the middle of walmart thanks to this

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

A state of Flower War now exists between Ukraine and Poland. Biden responds with the full force of the US military.

Evilreaver
Feb 26, 2007

GEORGE IS GETTIN' AUGMENTED!
Dinosaur Gum

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

A state of Flower War now exists between Ukraine and Poland. Biden responds with the full force of the US military.

Reports coming in that India and Pakistan have responded to this news by nuking each other

downout
Jul 6, 2009

YoursTruly
Jul 29, 2012

Put me in the trash
Recycle Bin
where
I belong.
The Russian fleet prepares to land at Odessa. Rather than just letting the Ukrainian defenders destroy the fleet, a Russian nuke is detonated, destroying the landing fleet, the defenders, and irradiating the port.
Russian state media claims that the nuke was an Azov dirty bomb used in desperation to prevent the obviously perfect landing operation from succeeding. Long after the war is over, the port is still contaminated.

DJ_Mindboggler
Nov 21, 2013

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

This has gone past Clancychat and into EU4 exploit territory. No CB war into unconditional surrender force vassalage.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
It's not a no-CB, Putin fabricated claims in 2014 and they were about to expire

If he takes Kyiv his mission tree gives free cores on Ukraine and permaclaims on the Baltics.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

It's not a no-CB, Putin fabricated claims in 2014 and they were about to expire

If he takes Kyiv his mission tree gives free cores on Ukraine and permaclaims on the Baltics.
Ukraine can't steal Putin's CB! Luckily, the Polish president insulted Zelenskyy during his visit, so he has a CB for attacking Poland.

Ionicpsycho
Dec 25, 2006
The Shortbus Avenger.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/europe/ukraine-mariupol-bombing-theater-intl/index.html

Oh man, you thought the calls for an NFZ were loud already, this is the kind of easily digestible evil that's going to have a lot of Americans screaming for intervention.

Source: Am American, surrounded by Americans.

Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God

Ionicpsycho posted:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/europe/ukraine-mariupol-bombing-theater-intl/index.html

Oh man, you thought the calls for an NFZ were loud already, this is the kind of easily digestible evil that's going to have a lot of Americans screaming for intervention.

Source: Am American, surrounded by Americans.

Since this is ClancyChat, I give a non-zero chance that Putin is literally trying to get the west to intervene so he has an excuse for losing the war ("We were well on our way to de-nazifying Ukraine when the US forced NATO to stop us in order to save their nazi puppets" plays a lot better than "Ukraine kicked our rear end").

The problem is the also non-zero chance that he reacts to European intervention by refusing to back down and starting a shooting war with NATO, which could potentially escalate further.

Outrail
Jan 4, 2009

www.sapphicrobotica.com
:roboluv: :love: :roboluv:

Bremen posted:

Since this is ClancyChat, I give a non-zero chance that Putin is literally trying to get the west to intervene so he has an excuse for losing the war ("We were well on our way to de-nazifying Ukraine when the US forced NATO to stop us in order to save their nazi puppets" plays a lot better than "Ukraine kicked our rear end").

The problem is the also non-zero chance that he reacts to European intervention by refusing to back down and starting a shooting war with NATO, which could potentially escalate further.

If even half of the reports are true it kinda feels like he's set the army up to fail so he has an excuse to escalate through other avenues :tinfoil:

Thread needs a :clancy: emote

Outrail fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Mar 16, 2022

Ionicpsycho
Dec 25, 2006
The Shortbus Avenger.
Maybe I'm just terminally online, but this feels like a real Lusitania moment to me for this upcoming war.

To stay on topic, my spouse and I could not agree on how many state capitals are nuclear targets. Even if Maine is the Kamchatka of the US, Augusta is still a target damnit.

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Ionicpsycho posted:

Maybe I'm just terminally online, but this feels like a real Lusitania moment to me for this upcoming war.

To stay on topic, my spouse and I could not agree on how many state capitals are nuclear targets. Even if Maine is the Kamchatka of the US, Augusta is still a target damnit.

No, because the Kamchatka capital is one that is actively helping the enemy by sheer loving incompetence, or stupidity. Never forget that it was one of the best ships the Japanese had during the war.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Ionicpsycho posted:

Maybe I'm just terminally online, but this feels like a real Lusitania moment to me for this upcoming war.

To stay on topic, my spouse and I could not agree on how many state capitals are nuclear targets. Even if Maine is the Kamchatka of the US, Augusta is still a target damnit.

if current RF targetting is anything like soviet targetting Maine has nothing to worry about. You get some radioactive love.


Even my hometown in bumfuck nowhere Texas is getting pasted.

2000 warheads is a first strike focused on military targets and nukes, 500 is a MAD scenario on population centers to discourage anyone shooting.

Pierre, SD has the dubious honour of being the surviving state capital.

e: Juneau might get away, Honolulu would definitely explode though. Augusta would also get some bonus fallout from places like Montréal and Halifax.

e2: and for the opposite
My wife's hometown in bumfuck nowhere, Kazakhstan escapes, hooray

Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Mar 17, 2022

duodenum
Sep 18, 2005

Dr. Arbitrary posted:

I've figured out the one weird trick that Ukraine can use to win the war.

They, paradoxically, need to invade Poland. Just a few tanks will be sufficient, along with a big announcement that they're doing it and intend to push west all the way to the Iberian peninsula because nobody will stop them.

This will require NATO to invade Ukraine.

Then afterwards, Zelenskyy can say he's really sorry and won't do it again, and that he's even willing to let NATO station troops in Ukraine indefinitely just to make sure he doesn't get any bright ideas in the future.

This is even better than good because it also gives Putin retroactive justification for having invaded, and now that Ukraine is “pacified“ he can save face and withdraw. The whole world knows he’s full of poo poo, but he can say whatever he wants inside his own borders.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Ionicpsycho posted:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/europe/ukraine-mariupol-bombing-theater-intl/index.html

Oh man, you thought the calls for an NFZ were loud already, this is the kind of easily digestible evil that's going to have a lot of Americans screaming for intervention.

Source: Am American, surrounded by Americans.

Nah, things like this don't necessarily get Americans screaming for intervention. After all, Israel does something like this every couple years in Gaza, and Americans are perfectly happy to believe "actually, that elementary school was a Hamas weapons cache and that hospital was a Hamas HQ" when Israel says it.

The difference is in how the American media is handling it. To be honest, the actual events happening on the ground don't actually matter all that much to American public opinion, since it's not like Americans are seeing this in person anyway. It's all being mushed together into a media narrative that most Americans probably won't be able to quote more than one atrocity from at a time.

While it's pretty amazing to see how quickly the average American's war-weariness has evaporated in the face of a good old media hawk blitz, I wouldn't expect any single specific action on Russia's part to be a tipping point unless they escalate to a style of massacre that breaks some international taboo, like chemical weapons or nukes.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Main Paineframe posted:

Nah, things like this don't necessarily get Americans screaming for intervention. After all, Israel does something like this every couple years in Gaza, and Americans are perfectly happy to believe "actually, that elementary school was a Hamas weapons cache and that hospital was a Hamas HQ" when Israel says it.

The difference is in how the American media is handling it. To be honest, the actual events happening on the ground don't actually matter all that much to American public opinion, since it's not like Americans are seeing this in person anyway. It's all being mushed together into a media narrative that most Americans probably won't be able to quote more than one atrocity from at a time.

While it's pretty amazing to see how quickly the average American's war-weariness has evaporated in the face of a good old media hawk blitz, I wouldn't expect any single specific action on Russia's part to be a tipping point unless they escalate to a style of massacre that breaks some international taboo, like chemical weapons or nukes.

Talking about media hawks driving americans to war is kinda brokebrained if you have any interactions with chuds irl. They fuckin love Daddy Vova and his tanks and decade old-shirtless pics.

Tucker Carlson is the single largest media personality in the country, check out how he talks about Putin.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

if current RF targetting is anything like soviet targetting Maine has nothing to worry about. You get some radioactive love.


Even my hometown in bumfuck nowhere Texas is getting pasted.

2000 warheads is a first strike focused on military targets and nukes, 500 is a MAD scenario on population centers to discourage anyone shooting.

I looked into this a week ago and i realized that the "500 warhead" MAD scenario doesn't actually target population centers, but the highway interchanges that surround them. That's why you have a few triangles along the borders of states and the Texas border and San Diego: the idea is that that people fleeing the populated areas will get stuck in traffic jams, the nukes centering on the interchanges will fry anyone stuck on those highways, and any post-nuclear help or further escape would likely have to go through smoldering, wrecked infrastructure and/or radioactive craters where the interchanges used to be. The border crossings would get hit in a few days later, if those missiles managed to survive the first strike.

I heard somewhere else in D&D that MAD doctrine expected that the recipient of a first strike was to lose around 75% of their nuclear arsenal and the Soviets fully expected to have a third of their arsenal not able to launch due to quality control and another third getting lost from inability to make orbit, falling short, hitting debris fields in space or on reentry, which was why they had so many nuclear warheads through the '60s and '70s. The number has been reduced greatly and it's obvious the problems plaguing the ground forces and air force would plague their own deployment of nuclear weapons, like the Strategic Rocket Forces accidentally exposing the workings of their "penetration aid" decoys, GLONASS being hackable, or losing their tactical communications because of lack of 4G. Maybe the Navy's ballistic submarines still work, but the Bulova deployment had some issues that we're not sure if they got worked out or not.

MOVIE MAJICK
Jan 4, 2012

by Pragmatica

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

if current RF targetting is anything like soviet targetting Maine has nothing to worry about. You get some radioactive love.


Even my hometown in bumfuck nowhere Texas is getting pasted.

2000 warheads is a first strike focused on military targets and nukes, 500 is a MAD scenario on population centers to discourage anyone shooting.

Pierre, SD has the dubious honour of being the surviving state capital.

e: Juneau might get away, Honolulu would definitely explode though. Augusta would also get some bonus fallout from places like Montréal and Halifax.

e2: and for the opposite
My wife's hometown in bumfuck nowhere, Kazakhstan escapes, hooray

What is that map from? Also what is RF targeting?

Why are there huge clusters of black dots in the mid west??

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


MOVIE MAJICK posted:

What is that map from? Also what is RF targeting?

Why are there huge clusters of black dots in the mid west??

thats where the US keeps the nukes. black dots is the disable military targets scenario

Outrail
Jan 4, 2009

www.sapphicrobotica.com
:roboluv: :love: :roboluv:

MOVIE MAJICK posted:

What is that map from? Also what is RF targeting?

Why are there huge clusters of black dots in the mid west??

Every dot represents 1000 hogs

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

MOVIE MAJICK posted:

What is that map from? Also what is RF targeting?

Why are there huge clusters of black dots in the mid west??

It's a map that's compiled from FEMA data and some other sources. However, it's about 30 year old data. Neither Russia doesn't have that many nukes to pull off a 2000+ warhead attack nor does the United States have that many nuclear weapons either still operating on US soil (most silos got decommissioned, only thing that's left is some airbases and subs), so a lot of that targeting speculation has changed. It's probably thought the only good data that's likely accurate is the counterstrike targets.

But yeah, the clusters of black dots are targeting the silo farms in North Dakota and Montana and the NORAD base at Cheyenne Mountain, which would require multiple hits to destroy.

Missionary Positron
Jul 6, 2004
And now for something completely different
Apparently a lot of Russian state planes are heading out of Moscow and towards the Urals and Siberia: https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504381121240391680?t=X51wQHqhc100gehopylOHA&s=19

:tinfoil:

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

I was probated for posting a possible timeline of the next Russian move. The next move after this would be...threaten NATO directly.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw

D34THROW
Jan 29, 2012

RETAIL RETAIL LISTEN TO ME BITCH ABOUT RETAIL
:rant:

Yeah, you see that purple triangle just east of Lake Okeechobee in Florida? That's the St. Lucie Nuclear Plant. I live 20 miles driving distance from it. Six and a half as the crow flies :shepicide:

I did some research into nuclear targets in Utah when I was writing a postapocalyptic series set a hundred or so years after Russia and China turbofucked the world with nukes after Putin went hog-wild forcibly re-integrating the former Soviet republics. Seeing this whole map is a bit :stonk:

MOVIE MAJICK posted:

What is that map from? Also what is RF targeting?

Why are there huge clusters of black dots in the mid west??

Also, good God, Cheyenne Mountain and the surrounding area is getting absolutely glassed.

Teriyaki Hairpiece
Dec 29, 2006

I'm nae the voice o' the darkened thistle, but th' darkened thistle cannae bear the sight o' our Bonnie Prince Bernie nae mair.

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Talking about media hawks driving americans to war is kinda brokebrained if you have any interactions with chuds irl. They fuckin love Daddy Vova and his tanks and decade old-shirtless pics.

Tucker Carlson is the single largest media personality in the country, check out how he talks about Putin.

Lol since the war started Fox News has entirely pivoted as their aging, broke-brained audience has reactivated their Cold War-era conditioning to hate and fear the evil Russian. They're now saying weak and pusillanimous Biden isn't doing enough to help Ukraine.

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

Lol since the war started Fox News has entirely pivoted as their aging, broke-brained audience has reactivated their Cold War-era conditioning to hate and fear the evil Russian. They're now saying weak and pusillanimous Biden isn't doing enough to help Ukraine.

They will criticize him no matter what he does, this is just the easiest lens for them.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Comstar posted:

I was probated for posting a possible timeline of the next Russian move. The next move after this would be...threaten NATO directly.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1504418075671728131?s=20&t=SumoDmfveyr_FeYuKPMtzw

maybe. my guess is IF they did something. it would be a conventual missel strikes into Poland probably. i am unsure if the russians have the troops to even try to move into poland. IF they went nukes. i dont think they go full multiple nukes. i think they will probably try to nuke Warsaw and kyiv. idk what happens then. plus(while i wouldnt make a bet on it.) i suspect Russia's launch capabilities arnt in great shape.


Edgar Allen Ho posted:

if current RF targetting is anything like soviet targetting Maine has nothing to worry about. You get some radioactive love.



yeah i am hosed because of Limerick plus Philadelphia. plus other poo poo.

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...

Dapper_Swindler posted:

maybe. my guess is IF they did something. it would be a conventual missel strikes into Poland probably. i am unsure if the russians have the troops to even try to move into poland. IF they went nukes. i dont think they go full multiple nukes. i think they will probably try to nuke Warsaw and kyiv. idk what happens then. plus(while i wouldnt make a bet on it.) i suspect Russia's launch capabilities arnt in great shape.

yeah i am hosed because of Limerick plus Philadelphia. plus other poo poo.

Ah yes, I'm the guy whose forces have stalled invading Ukraine, and who now wants to involve a hornets nest of nations who have a grudge, along with The Military Industrial Complex across the ocean that no longer has a war to milk.

If Putin strikes a NATO country it's because he's dying and wants to take the world with him.

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Seeing the old map targeting silos makes me wonder: Does the modern "Nuclear Triad" really need anything other than the one leg of subs and SLBMs?

Seems like a real trump card for first strike, small strike, big strike, second strike, dead hand strike...

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

coelomate posted:

Seeing the old map targeting silos makes me wonder: Does the modern "Nuclear Triad" really need anything other than the one leg of subs and SLBMs?

Seems like a real trump card for first strike, small strike, big strike, second strike, dead hand strike...

For deterrence no, probably not. But as has been mentioned, it’s nice to have a proportional response option other than “send the doomsday message to the E-6 fleet.”

Outrail
Jan 4, 2009

www.sapphicrobotica.com
:roboluv: :love: :roboluv:

Volmarias posted:

Ah yes, I'm the guy whose forces have stalled invading Ukraine, and who now wants to involve a hornets nest of nations who have a grudge, along with The Military Industrial Complex across the ocean that no longer has a war to milk.

If Putin strikes a NATO country it's because he's dying and wants to take the world with him.

A brief study of humanity tells us there is no functional difference between a hornet's nest and a fleshlight.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Volmarias posted:

Ah yes, I'm the guy whose forces have stalled invading Ukraine, and who now wants to involve a hornets nest of nations who have a grudge, along with The Military Industrial Complex across the ocean that no longer has a war to milk.

If Putin strikes a NATO country it's because he's dying and wants to take the world with him.

agreed. though my guess is IF he did it. it would be limited at first as a back the gently caress off move and then try to use it as leverage to get what he wants because "i am hosed anyway".


My genuin opinion is he will probably try to dumb chemical weapons on Ukraine soon.

Mr-Spain
Aug 27, 2003

Bullshit... you can be mine.

Young Freud posted:

It's a map that's compiled from FEMA data and some other sources. However, it's about 30 year old data. Neither Russia doesn't have that many nukes to pull off a 2000+ warhead attack nor does the United States have that many nuclear weapons either still operating on US soil (most silos got decommissioned, only thing that's left is some airbases and subs), so a lot of that targeting speculation has changed. It's probably thought the only good data that's likely accurate is the counterstrike targets.

But yeah, the clusters of black dots are targeting the silo farms in North Dakota and Montana and the NORAD base at Cheyenne Mountain, which would require multiple hits to destroy.

You're right that most of them got decommissioned, but published numbers still include "up to" 400 active minuteman sites.

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?
I don’t think Putin would hit Poland but one of the smaller cities in the western Ukraine he can live without, if Kiev to blow up the centre of annual power. Liev provably.


Some of the Russian oligarchs suspect it might happen as they are fleeing for Dubai yesterday.

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D-Pad
Jun 28, 2006

Outrail posted:

A brief study of humanity tells us there is no functional difference between a hornet's nest and a fleshlight.

Is this too long for a new thread title?

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