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Payndz posted:Putin's entire motivation for this seems barely comprehensible from a western point of view. He's the undisputed biggest fish of a nuclear-armed power, who could do pretty much anything he wanted without consequences within Russia and even beyond (see Salisbury), he's gained his country an enormous amount of soft power and money-hosed his assets and useful idiots into positions of importance in the west (Trump, Carlson, Nigel Farage and lots of Tories and right-Labour figures in the UK), acquired enormous personal wealth through running Russia like a mafia boss and taking a direct or indirect cut from any companies that want to operate in an expanding market, had the countries of Europe terrified of upsetting the bear for fear of economic retribution or having their gas cut off... and has just pissed all of that away, likely for decades to come, because he apparently still sees the world from a Cold War mindset of "everything Soviet is still Russia's, and NATO must be kept from our borders!" It really beggars belief. I want to believe that he's not just completely mad, but I absolutely can't see what he stands to gain from here. And you haven't even mentioned the upcoming costs to rebuild their army, or the internal upset that will need managing when thousands of sons never come back from the "special military operation". It seems so incredibly irrational.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:32
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If you consider that maybe all the assets and successes and soft power Putin accumulated was merely a means to an end - the restoration of Ukraine and other territories into the bosom of Russia, or simply restoring mother Russia in a more abstract sense - then using them now was probably not irrational. Maye this was truly the best possible moment. The fact that it apparently was not enough must be incredibly frustrating.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:37
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FishMcCool posted:It really beggars belief. I want to believe that he's not just completely mad, but I absolutely can't see what he stands to gain from here. And you haven't even mentioned the upcoming costs to rebuild their army, or the internal upset that will need managing when thousands of sons never come back from the "special military operation". It seems so incredibly irrational. I think it would be in and out classic 20min imperial adventure and believed his own bullshit and everyone else lied because they wanted to live. Now they are in deep poo poo at will probably give in to a negotiated peace and I doubt many of the corps will come back or sanctions will leave. Also https://mobile.twitter.com/DeItaone...mber%3D590pti13
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Mar 16, 2022 11:39
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I think it would be in and out classic 20min imperial adventure and believed his own bullshit and everyone else lied because they wanted to live. Now they are in deep poo poo at will probably give in to a negotiated peace and I doubt many of the corps will come back or sanctions will leave. Also https://mobile.twitter.com/DeItaone...mber%3D590pti13 You should always take these offers with a massive grain of salt. That said, any perceived capitulation might start a Ukrainian civil war at this point. I'd say recognition of DNR and LNR and Crimea especially.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:42
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I think it would be in and out classic 20min imperial adventure and believed his own bullshit and everyone else lied because they wanted to live. Now they are in deep poo poo at will probably give in to a negotiated peace and I doubt many of the corps will come back or sanctions will leave. Also https://mobile.twitter.com/DeItaone...mber%3D590pti13 "DEMILITARISED UKRAINE LIKE AUSTRIA WITH ITS OWN ARMY " what the hell does that even mean?
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Mar 16, 2022 11:43
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mobby_6kl posted:"DEMILITARISED UKRAINE LIKE AUSTRIA WITH ITS OWN ARMY " what the hell does that even mean? It means Ukraine agrees to not be part of NATO. Like Austria after 1956 or Finland. I.e,. formal agreed upon status as buffer state.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:46
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Threadkiller Dog posted:If you consider that maybe all the assets and successes and soft power Putin accumulated was merely a means to an end - the restoration of Ukraine and other territories into the bosom of Russia - then using them now was probably not irrational. Maye this was truly the best possible moment. The fact that it apparently was not enough must be incredibly frustrating. Russia continues to slide down the GDP charts, corruption is endemic and a way of life, their citizens are impoverished and controlled, their sphere of influence is shrinking and now all their neighbours are afraid of them and looking elsewhere. If Russia's worst enemy wanted to install a puppet in Russia with the aim of doing as much damage as possible to it over the last 20 years then they would do pretty much what Putin has been doing.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:48
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Dapper_Swindler posted:I think it would be in and out classic 20min imperial adventure and believed his own bullshit and everyone else lied because they wanted to live. Now they are in deep poo poo at will probably give in to a negotiated peace and I doubt many of the corps will come back or sanctions will leave. Also https://mobile.twitter.com/DeItaone...mber%3D590pti13 I just hope that a neutral Ukraine would not have the same love for Russian money as my neutral homeland. Of the chancellors of the last 2 decades: Wolfgang Schüssel worked for Lukoil Christian Kern worked for RZD (Russian national railroad) Alfred Gusenbauer supposedly was an advisor for Viktor Yanukovich Our largest bank has significant business interests in Russia (in the form of RBI), same for several of our own billionaires, like Hans Peter Haselsteiner. We are also heavily dependent on Russian gas. And ofc the local Nazi party loves Putin, just like Salvini in Italy, Le Pen in France and the NPD in Germany.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:48
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FishBulbia posted:It means Ukraine agrees to not be part of NATO. Like Austria after 1956 or Finland. I.e,. formal agreed upon status as buffer state.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:49
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FishBulbia posted:It means Ukraine agrees to not be part of NATO. Like Austria after 1956 or Finland. I.e,. formal agreed upon status as buffer state. FishBulbia posted:You should always take these offers with a massive grain of salt. Crimea's a done deal sadly, even if we could actually force the russians back into the black sea, they went through 8 years of propaganda and resettlements so it probably wouldn't be a peaceful return. DNR/LRN though, I don't know if anyone outside thoser regions really cares at this point either.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:52
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Hammerstein posted:I just hope that a neutral Ukraine would not have the same love for Russian money as my neutral homeland. Maybe but after fighting there own version of the great patriotic war and probably holding out and eventually heading towards EU membership with a probable western Marshall plan helping. I am pretty sure they won’t trust Russia. Also Russian soft power and economic power is hosed now and probably for a long time too. evil_bunnY posted:That's very much not demilitarized tho No poo poo. They are saving face now. I think they will still try to take Kyiv or Odessa at some point before the sign poo poo though.
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Mar 16, 2022 11:55
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If Russia really wants to spin an Austria model as a win, they can be my guest. Nothing stops Ukraine from tearing up the treaties if they want to join NATO afterwards, and Russia wouldn’t invade the EU (or it might but it would be an even worse plan than the current invasion).
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Mar 16, 2022 12:01
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Dapper_Swindler posted:No poo poo. They are saving face now. I think they will still try to take Kyiv or Odessa at some point before the sign poo poo though. Cool, well hopefully Ukraine can live with being a demilitarised country with its own army, a neutral state that's a member of the EU and having Zelenskyy step down so that the country can be lead by Zelenskyy
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Mar 16, 2022 12:01
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SourKraut posted:Coming back from the dead would be another military advantage Jesus is a hell of a medic too His hat kind of sucks though and his skin is too different from the standard one
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Mar 16, 2022 12:01
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Chalks posted:Cool, well hopefully Ukraine can live with being a demilitarised country with its own army, a neutral state that's a member of the EU and having Zelenskyy step down so that the country can be lead by Zelenskyy I think that's pretty much the gist of it. It's just them flooding the airwaves with garbage so they can make the truth whatever they say it is, and no matter what happens, they won.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:03
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Gort posted:I think that's pretty much the gist of it. It's just them flooding the airwaves with garbage so they can make the truth whatever they say it is, and no matter what happens, they won. They did the same poo poo in Chechnya. I won’t be shocked if everything is left vague with a “it will be solved down the road/next term” like the treaty in the first Chechnya war ended.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:08
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"Our mission managed to denazify Zelenskyy and his cadre. All those evil impulses are purged from them now! And we hope to have resume a great relationship in the future. No more sanctions necessary." With his stupid Nazi comments, Putin really went all in on this war. If they retreat and the same Nazi leader is in charge of the Ukraine, I can't imagine how the typical Russian in Moscow would perceive it as anything but a failure. And strongmen really do not like to be percieved as weak, dumb failures. So yeah, he backed himself in a corner and wont give up anytime soon. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 12:09
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Comstar posted:Why are the Russians only using 1-2 planes per strike? I thought all normal tactics would be to hit one small area with a lot of planes, instead of spreading them over the entire front. This is actually a complicated question. The single answer is that nobody knows for sure other than Russia. There are things known about Russia's air capabilities before the war and things that are happening during the war that can let people draw conclusions, but there isn't usually a single provable one of those. For example, before the war everyone knew Russia can't really lock down an airspace completely from the air like the US can. They don't have a large air tanker fleet or aerial resupply capability so they primarily use air bases to launch strikes from supported by targeted missile strikes and ground forces. Everyone saw the reports that they have 4,000+ military aircraft with hundreds of jets. They are also the #2 military power that have been arming for decades so munitions shouldn't have been an issue. Since this is a unique conflict where the defender has extremely advanced anti-air the speculation of their possible tactics was that they would just use their bountiful long range missiles and overwhelming ground forces and take out the enemy Anti-Air capability so they could get more planes in the air to support them and more bases to launch from so they should have been able to conduct a huge amount of guided airstrikes from long range. For some reason they seem to have drastically reduced the targeted missile strikes and their ground forces are completely stalled, leaving Ukrainian Anti-Air active everywhere. Things we do know are weird, such as the halt of firing their larger long range missiles for some reason and using their Su-34s like WW2 style bombers dropping dumb munitions on enemy ground forces in places they haven't cleared anti-air https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1500394639047680007?s=20&t=HH7Mq0-Fff2Wlu0YTOnAXg Which is how several Su-34s have been shot down so far. So does this mean they only set aside X amount of missiles for the invasion and refuse to go over it? All other jet based guided munitions are reserved so strictly that they will use strike fighters to do a B-52 style bombing run? Did they also only set aside so many medium range ballistic missiles and refuse to dip into their supply of those too? Sacrificing thousands of soldiers to preserve that stock? Are they conserving the 95% of their paper airforce for that reason too? Strict preservation of a reserve force is why they are using the ones they have set aside for the invasion dangerously and poorly? They apparently have to use them even if it's dangerous but only have a small amount to use? If Russia is so unconcerned with losses like a lot of their supporters keep claiming to justify the massacre of their forces then why are they not just flying hundreds of their jets and helicopters into the border cities to take them? If losses aren't a problem then why lose thousands of troops and some air forces in a 3 week poorly supported ground war for a border city? I think depending on how much credit you want to give Russia it's either that they just can't actually field their air force due to corruption and poor maintenance or they are being so cautious with their amazing and unutilized reserve air force that they are letting the portion set aside for the invasion take massive casualties because they are so unconcerned with the loss when compared to the chart that claims they have 4,000 military aircraft and 700+ jets. That is the same logic for why they are losing what has to be tens of thousands of troops in this invasion while supposedly holding this giant million man army in reserve in Russia while refusing to use it. Are they that strict about preserving a homeland defense force that they will let a 200,000 person army get shredded or is this the capability of their force projection? Is this just raw incompetence and bad planning where they are suffering horrific losses they don't even know about that they didn't plan for so that's why they aren't using the reserves that actually do exist? There are a lot of questions everyone can argue about constantly but all we know is that they are doing 1-2 jet strikes with dumb munitions to try and support a ground force that is losing thousands of vehicles and troops and are getting a bunch of them shot down. Ukraine's air force that is supposed to be 5%-10% as big is more visible and active than the one that is supposedly 10x-20x the size for whatever reason.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:16
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ImpAtom posted:I don't think there is any country who doesn't have ridiculous-rear end sounding weapons. I wish Finland would name them like that. We used to have at least Pasi(PAssari SIsu (Armored Sisu)), Masi(MAasto SIsu (Off-road Sisu)) and Rasi(RAskas SIsu(Heavy Sisu))(Sisu is a Finnish company that builds heavy vehicles). The first two are Finnish male names and the third one is a last name, but mostly just goes well with the first two. Now we have A2045, 40 KRKK 2005, AMV, CV9030 etc.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:20
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Deltasquid posted:If Russia really wants to spin an Austria model as a win, they can be my guest. Nothing stops Ukraine from tearing up the treaties if they want to join NATO afterwards, and Russia wouldn’t invade the EU (or it might but it would be an even worse plan than the current invasion). Even if they wanted to I don't think Russia could attempt an invasion on this scale for years and maybe up to a decade. Their military has been shown up as rotten to the core and is incapable of complex operations. It's not clear their doctrine is effective against a peer opponent either. The bulk of their equipment seems to be no match for modern western weapons and their most modern stuff is only available in small numbers. It takes a very long time to turn around a bad culture and also modernising the army and getting troops proficient with new equipment takes a while too. If they were to build up for an invasion it would be taken extremely seriously and any potential targets would almost certainly mobilise as soon as it was detected. On the other side, you can bet that this war will be seared into the memories of Ukrainians and from the moment a ceasefire is declared preparations will be made for defense against a future invasion. I expect along borders and major roads there will be anti tank ditches, preparations to allow for rapid demolition of bridges and roads, works to allow fields to be flooded, prepared fighting positions and ambush locations, and so on. I also wouldn't be surprised if they set up a militia similar to Switzerland in addition to a professional army. They were caught off guard this time but I can't see it happening again. In short, this was their one shot and they blew it.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:20
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Pretty sure Ukraine would jump at the chance to come out of this with an agreement with Russia that they could end up like "Austria with its own army", since 'neutral' Austria is an EU member that has solid cooperation with NATO, and its chancellor said literally this week that NATO would help protect the EU as a whole from Russia, whether its individual members were in NATO or not.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:21
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Putin's operation was a great success. Many major russian-speaking cities are now badly damaged, AZOV fighters are seen as national heroes and russophobia among the general population is higher than ever.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:22
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Sorry, Brown Moses. https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/16/rkn-zablokiroval-saity-bellingcat-ust-kut-24-i-postimees-news
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Mar 16, 2022 12:22
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Does anyone know how much trouble it would be to actually disband and disarm groups like Azov in context of a peace agreement? They only seems to count a few thousand people and only a minority of them seem to be genuine neo-nazis, while the Ukrainian standing army is hundreds of thousands of people now and could easily disarm them. On the other hand, they probably do have some sympathizers in the population and regular army that could get very vocal.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Sorry, Brown Moses. https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/16/rkn-zablokiroval-saity-bellingcat-ust-kut-24-i-postimees-news https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1504056537333043201
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Mar 16, 2022 12:29
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BoldFace posted:Putin's operation was a great success. Many major russian-speaking cities are now badly damaged, AZOV fighters are seen as national heroes and russophobia among the general population is higher than ever. Whenever I went to Ukraine before I exclusively spoke English or Russian. A lot of people in the west for some reason believe that speaking Russian in Ukraine is a political statement, it's not, no more than speaking French in Quebec is a least. The only people who'd care are the freaks who don't go outside much anyway. Cities like Odesa and Mariupol, Kharkiv were Russian speaking Ukrainian cities. There was no "contradiction" there. After this I'm not sure. Putin has managed to create actual existing Russophobia!
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Mar 16, 2022 12:33
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gay picnic defence posted:Even if they wanted to I don't think Russia could attempt an invasion on this scale for years and maybe up to a decade. Their military has been shown up as rotten to the core and is incapable of complex operations. It's not clear their doctrine is effective against a peer opponent either. The bulk of their equipment seems to be no match for modern western weapons and their most modern stuff is only available in small numbers. It takes a very long time to turn around a bad culture and also modernising the army and getting troops proficient with new equipment takes a while too. If they were to build up for an invasion it would be taken extremely seriously and any potential targets would almost certainly mobilise as soon as it was detected. yeah Russia is hosed for the next decade or so at least. this is 40s level devastation and Uncle sam isnt here to help them out again. i also wouldn't be shocked if you start to see the federation break apart and belarus try to get away from being under putins thumb. Payndz posted:Pretty sure Ukraine would jump at the chance to come out of this with an agreement with Russia that they could end up like "Austria with its own army", since 'neutral' Austria is an EU member that has solid cooperation with NATO, and its chancellor said literally this week that NATO would help protect the EU as a whole from Russia, whether its individual members were in NATO or not. https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1504052737230708736 yeeaahhh no. not yet at least, i suspect their was alot of other words and terms attached to that as well.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:35
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GABA ghoul posted:Does anyone know how much trouble it would be to actually disband and disarm groups like Azov in context of a peace agreement? They only seems to count a few thousand people and only a minority of them seem to be genuine neo-nazis, while the Ukrainian standing army is hundreds of thousands of people now and could easily disarm them. On the other hand, they probably do have some sympathizers in the population and regular army that could get very vocal. These groups unfortunately have a position were just enough of the population is sympathetic to them that they're hard to deal with. Ukraine tried to crack down on foreign neo-Nazis coming to fight in 2016. But its always a balancing act. Rebuilding peace time Ukraine after this will be a political nightmare for sure
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Mar 16, 2022 12:35
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https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504045102196572165?cxt=HHwWioC-qafDuN8pAAAA
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Mar 16, 2022 12:35
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Rectal Death Adept posted:Russian air force Is it possible that they just don't have enough pilots?
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Mar 16, 2022 12:36
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GABA ghoul posted:Does anyone know how much trouble it would be to actually disband and disarm groups like Azov in context of a peace agreement? They only seems to count a few thousand people and only a minority of them seem to be genuine neo-nazis, while the Ukrainian standing army is hundreds of thousands of people now and could easily disarm them. On the other hand, they probably do have some sympathizers in the population and regular army that could get very vocal. i am pretty sure something would be worked out eventually. their big figure head just died last night so i can see them making some deal.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:36
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Payndz posted:Putin's entire motivation for this seems barely comprehensible from a western point of view. He's the undisputed biggest fish of a nuclear-armed power, who could do pretty much anything he wanted without consequences within Russia and even beyond (see Salisbury), he's gained his country an enormous amount of soft power and money-hosed his assets and useful idiots into positions of importance in the west (Trump, Carlson, Nigel Farage and lots of Tories and right-Labour figures in the UK), acquired enormous personal wealth through running Russia like a mafia boss and taking a direct or indirect cut from any companies that want to operate in an expanding market, had the countries of Europe terrified of upsetting the bear for fear of economic retribution or having their gas cut off... and has just pissed all of that away, likely for decades to come, because he apparently still sees the world from a Cold War mindset of "everything Soviet is still Russia's, and NATO must be kept from our borders!" This is why authoritarianism is so toxic to the entire world. Authoritarian leaders amass power by betting and winning over and over again without major consequences from weakened democratic institutions until they finally have enough power to get 5-7 figures of people killed on one last bad bet.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:37
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Captain Kosmos posted:I wish Finland would name them like that. We used to have at least Pasi(PAssari SIsu (Armored Sisu)), Masi(MAasto SIsu (Off-road Sisu)) and Rasi(RAskas SIsu(Heavy Sisu))(Sisu is a Finnish company that builds heavy vehicles). The first two are Finnish male names and the third one is a last name, but mostly just goes well with the first two. I remember a long time ago on a peace mission in Syria and Lebanon you’d take a Sisu somewhere, as in it was a blanket term for all Finnish armored vehicles. Never realized it was the name of the manufact.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:38
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"We'll have our army stop attempting to occupy your country once you dismantle your military" is kind of a hard sell after you've been shelling civilians for a week and a half
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Mar 16, 2022 12:40
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MadJackal posted:Authoritarian leaders amass power by betting and winning over and over again without major consequences from weakened democratic institutions until they finally have enough power to get 5-7 figures of people killed on one last bad bet. You should see what democracies can accomplish! The general security interests of a state are not majorly shaped by gov. type, exceptions are of course messianic cults. how they attempt to fulfill those objectives is. and I'd also say the performance of their military is too.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:41
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Rectal Death Adept posted:There are a lot of questions everyone can argue about constantly but all we know is that they are doing 1-2 jet strikes with dumb munitions to try and support a ground force that is losing thousands of vehicles and troops and are getting a bunch of them shot down. Ukraine's air force that is supposed to be 5%-10% as big is more visible and active than the one that is supposedly 10x-20x the size for whatever reason. It's quite possible that this is all they are capable of, unless they want to go into full mobilization mode. Which would ruin the Kremlin's narrative that this is just a "special military operation" and not an invasion or war. Russia's military budget is something around 62 billion USD, which is only 10 billions more than Germany and there are reports about the sad state the German army is in. So 62 billions to maintain a huge navy, including a fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, thousands of military planes, ten thousands of armored vehicles and one of the largest strategic nuclear arsenals in the world. And all of that in a country with a GDP comparable to Canada or South Korea. On top of that there is massive corruption, meaning that whatever money is budgeted for training, spare parts, wages, etc...has a good chance to disappear in the pockets of oligarchs, local strongmen, corrupt officers or the mob. The average Russian conscript likely considers himself lucky if he's not victim of the Dedovshchina and gets a bowl of potatoe and onion soup a day.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:42
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Dapper_Swindler posted:
I mean if the words, no outside help to build your military comes up, then I imagine its a non-starter. Also, Russia is in a bind too if it has to commit more military to Ukraine right? Cause, wouldn't some of the places they are occupying/keep troops near start getting side eye about whether the Russian military can handle it?
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Mar 16, 2022 12:42
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Mooseontheloose posted:I mean if the words, no outside help to build your military comes up, then I imagine its a non-starter. I think russia is looking for some sort of decisive military victory before they have to come to the table or poo poo implodes on a bunch of levels, obviously that can happen but its much much harder now.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:46
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Speaking of redeployment: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1504056512955752451?cxt=HHwWhoC5jcDbvd8pAAAA
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Mar 16, 2022 12:47
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Rectal Death Adept posted:This is actually a complicated question. The single answer is that nobody knows for sure other than Russia. You can easily see how getting munitions to ground forces might be a challenge but those challenges aren’t really a factor with rearming aircraft. You’d just take them out of storage, load them on a plane and fly them straight to the forward operating bases the combat aircraft are flying out of. So I don’t think logistical difficulties explain it. Poor training might explain it, maybe sophisticated guided munitions require a high level of training to use and their aircrews simply don’t have that so they aren’t being used. It’s possible that the way Ukraine is deploying their AA is making anti radar missiles ineffective. Those mobile AA units would be quite good for giving a few quick scans of the radar before loving off someplace else before someone locks on to the signal. It’s been mentioned before that maybe Russia’s stocks of weapons are much lower than estimated and they’re actually running out. Maybe they simply can’t identify targets of military value to justify the use of precision weapons and instead decided the best use for their most modern fighter/bombers is bomb trucks to dump unguided munitions on random apartment blocks. It’s an interesting question and I suppose there’s going to be a leak or something before too long that sheds some light on it.
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Mar 16, 2022 12:47
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