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the popes toes posted:It's not a "feeling" that is being expressed by sanctions. But rather a way to inhibit military production, and dissuade it. That the Russian people must also pay that price is unavoidable. Sanctions have never worked Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, not once did they result in anything other than indiscriminate suffering. Hardening Russian ultra nationalism won’t achieve any meaningful security goals, and a North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably worse than the status quo.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:54
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Kraftwerk posted:This seems like such a gimmick. What extra value do these provide besides yet another weapons system the Ukranians have to learn out of like 5. Don't get me wrong, having them is a lot better than not having them but it seems most of the problems now are coming from shelling, cruise missiles and high altitude bombings - all of which are out of reach of stingers and other AA equipment. Russia is still using a large amount of helicopters
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Mar 16, 2022 16:54
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MikeC posted:Unless you think this is just a stalling tactic but we don't see any sign of full mobilization of the Russian military to the region that would be required to restart an attack.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:55
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deathbysnusnu posted:Sanctions have never worked Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, not once did they result in anything other than indiscriminate suffering. Hardening Russian ultra nationalism won’t achieve any meaningful security goals, and a North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably worse than the status quo. That was going to happen anyways, since Putin was always building up a Nationalist profile. He's an alt-right figurehead. But in this case: The Sanctions DO appear to be having significant impact, and Russia is struggling to downplay the impact its having on them. Here's my shocked face:
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Mar 16, 2022 16:56
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Putin: "Dare you to continue sanctions!" Blinken recently outlined US conditions for a rollback, which weirdly hasn't gotten much media traction. The TLDR seems to be that the state department wants a settlement with ironclad guarantees that Russia just won't be back for another bite at the apple in a few years: "He insisted that U.S. sanctions against Russia are "not designed to be permanent," and that they could "go away" if Russia should change its behavior. But he said any Russian pullback would have to be, "in effect, irreversible," so that "this can't happen again, that Russia won't pick up and do exactly what it's doing in a year or two years or three years." Blinken held out no prospect that Moscow is ready to consider any such terms. (...) A more likely scenario is continued war, and the top U.S. diplomat warned of further devastation of Ukrainian cities. "We've seen the brutality that Vladimir Putin has brought to this. We know his his track record in Chechnya. We know the track record of what he's aided and abetted in Syria. I think we have to expect the same."" https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1086835380/blinken-sets-a-standard-for-lifting-sanctions-an-irreversible-russian-withdrawal
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Mar 16, 2022 16:56
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deathbysnusnu posted:Sanctions have never worked Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, not once did they result in anything other than indiscriminate suffering. Hardening Russian ultra nationalism won’t achieve any meaningful security goals, and a North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably worse than the status quo. A North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably better than the status quo from Ukraine's perspective.
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Mar 16, 2022 16:57
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deathbysnusnu posted:Sanctions have never worked Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, not once did they result in anything other than indiscriminate suffering. Hardening Russian ultra nationalism won’t achieve any meaningful security goals, and a North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably worse than the status quo. Which countries did any of these invade after getting sanctioned?
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Mar 16, 2022 16:57
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A formality, but an important box to check I think if sanctions are going to increase https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1504120775749550081?t=ji8H69ZoFvIKM1kgD1cR8A&s=19 Though that really depends on the Germans ar this point, they've been resisting any sanctions on current energy supply
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Mar 16, 2022 16:59
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The ICJ decision: https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf
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Mar 16, 2022 17:02
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I get that sanctions might not solve anything on their own and hurt a lot of ordinary people with no power, but you have to make it at least more difficult than usual to make the money necessary to wage war or engage in other objectionable conduct. The other options to fight that conduct are either violent (i.e., military) or completely laughable (i.e., public scolding? concerts?). They're basically the best of a bunch of bad choices.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:03
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deathbysnusnu posted:Sanctions have never worked Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, not once did they result in anything other than indiscriminate suffering. Hardening Russian ultra nationalism won’t achieve any meaningful security goals, and a North Korea type state with the Russian nuclear arsenal is demonstrably worse than the status quo. Worked for South Africa
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Mar 16, 2022 17:04
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KitConstantine posted:The cruise missles coming from Russia have been shown to have decoys on them, so this platform would help with that immediately. Also these have a range of up to 4 miles, which is much further than the existing anti-air personal systems Ukraine has.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:06
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It's also probably crippling their armed forces.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:06
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From EU Commissioner for Energy https://twitter.com/KadriSimson/status/1504086281520877571?cxt=HHwWhsC4maGgy98pAAAA
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Mar 16, 2022 17:07
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the popes toes posted:From EU Commissioner for Energy drat. Those linepeople work fast. Also wondering how fast Germany can re-activate those nuke plants--if they get them online soonish, could make cutting Russia's oil off a lot more palatable.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:08
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OAquinas posted:Also wondering how fast Germany can re-activate those nuke plants--if they get them online soonish, could make cutting Russia's oil off a lot more palatable. In any case Germany doesn't get all that much electricity from gas. Most of it goes on home heating, industrial-process heat and as a chemical feedstock. So you can't easily replace it with electricity in the short term.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:13
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Telsa Cola posted:It's also probably crippling their armed forces. Yeah I don't think some people realize just how much of Russia's modern poo poo has been getting smashed up here and that stuff is going to be a nightmare to replace with sanctions. Hell I question how much of their most modern stuff is in running condition in the first place given all the pictures of destroyed equipment that's positively ancient (T-72As, BMP-1s, etc...). Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 17:13
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https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1504098983895080965 https://twitter.com/annmarie/status/1502359113287835660?cxt=HHwWmIC9ievpudkpAAAA
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Mar 16, 2022 17:14
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PerilPastry posted:Blinken recently outlined US conditions for a rollback, which weirdly hasn't gotten much media traction. The TLDR seems to be that the state department wants a settlement with ironclad guarantees that Russia just won't be back for another bite at the apple in a few years: This seems like the right approach. Punitive sanctions would just harden Russian nationalism. Russia has to know exactly what it can do to get relief. Will sanctions on the Russian defense industry continue if these demands are met? Supplying components for Russian weapons doesn't seem likely for most countries for the foreseeable future.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:14
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That Italian Guy posted:This is hardly thread relevant, but since it has come up and I guess someone else could use a good laugh looking at I've spent the last hour laughing my rear end off at scrunts, thank you.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:14
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fatherboxx posted:Worked for South Africa Japan during WWII also might be an example
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Mar 16, 2022 17:15
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Zephro posted:They've said they aren't going to reactivate them: https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-rules-out-prolonging-its-nuclear-power-plants/ They get 15% at minimum, that's not an insignificant amount of gas based electricity. And they just bailed out their coal industry due to the sanctions. So yeah, they really are doubling down on fossil fuels.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:16
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Zephro posted:They've said they aren't going to reactivate them: https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-rules-out-prolonging-its-nuclear-power-plants/ Germany has an important chemical industry which is a part of global industrial supply chains that often gets ignored. Basically natural gas is used to create stuff like methanol, ethylene and propylene which all feed into a wide variety of chemical solvents used in everything from plastics production to food packaging and printing. Losing access to these feedstocks causes insane disruptions in global supply chains and prices and as things stand the US Gulf Coast chemical producers are already on tight sales allocations with the usual supply disruptions like hurricanes and consequences of the Texas deep freeze from last year. Basically chemical inventories are barely able to keep up with demand as things are and with imports its just causing price increases across the board.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:17
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the popes toes posted:From EU Commissioner for Energy Ukraine (without Russia breathing down their necks, after reconstructing their infrastructure) will be able to supply a majority of their own power, between their nuclear, natural gas, coal, oil, and hydropower plants. Hopefully money flowing in after the war will help with expansion and modernization of these plants, so this should be a win-win for all sides except Russia.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:18
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Kraftwerk posted:This seems like such a gimmick. What extra value do these provide besides yet another weapons system the Ukranians have to learn out of like 5. Don't get me wrong, having them is a lot better than not having them but it seems most of the problems now are coming from shelling, cruise missiles and high altitude bombings - all of which are out of reach of stingers and other AA equipment. I'm shocked at how dumb this take is. MANPADs are relatively simple platforms, designed to be used by the common infantry soldier. They aren't hard to learn and it doesn't take a long time either. Since it's a new system, they are most likely being delivered with together with a crew of Ukrainian instructors who has been taught the use of them in Poland already, ready to filter out to frontline units when they cross the border. Also UA is shooting down aircraft and helicopters daily, more pewpews means more boombooms. Ok?
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Mar 16, 2022 17:18
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Firing on Odesa again. https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1504126898514837511?t=d91dkjJg99vWcstPq2SXGg&s=19 Have to see if this goes anywhere today
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Mar 16, 2022 17:18
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Will will fight for the right to invade our neighbors? https://twitter.com/GazetaRu/status/1504094251734425607
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Mar 16, 2022 17:18
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When I see Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq and North Korea brought up as proof of sanctions against Russia being pointless, I wonder who is looking at those countries and going "Yeah, they got the military and economic power to roll over their neighbors."
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Mar 16, 2022 17:18
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Randarkman posted:Japan during WWII also might be an example both of these are also much more similar to russia as countries integrated into the world economy vs north korea or cuba which were pretty isolated.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:19
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PerilPastry posted:A more likely scenario is continued war, and the top U.S. diplomat warned of further devastation of Ukrainian cities. "We've seen the brutality that Vladimir Putin has brought to this. We know his his track record in Chechnya. We know the track record of what he's aided and abetted in Syria. I think we have to expect the same."" It's hard to say much without treading into clacychat territory, but if this is the case, then I believe this will result in only one of two possible outcomes: 1) Ukraine manage to break and defeat the Russian invasion, either routing the invaders completely or pushing them back to where they cannot siege Ukrainian cities, 2) Some constellation of European countries intervene, with or without US involvement. I believe 1) is the most likely. A Russian military collapse of varying magnitude. But this is not going to end with a razed Ukraine or Russian occupation (partial or full). Which is why those people cheering (openly or not) for a Russian victory, be they Putinist conservatives, left-wing nihilist or naivist 'surrender is best', are very bit as misguided as those cheering for an NFZ or a full-scale NATO intervention. Because the outcome will be the same. It sucks that the Ukrainian people have to die and suffer because of the nuclear threat. And that suffering makes the effect of sanctions pale. I have great sympathy for Russians who suffer under their regime. I do not wish them suffer. But any discussions of how the sanctions affect Russia are to my mind completely out of proportion when looking at what Ukraine is suffering right now. Once the war is over, talk about the justifications and proportionality of sanctions is a meaningful topic. Right now? The only relevant point is how much aid Ukraine can be given without risking escalation on a wider scale.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:19
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CommieGIR posted:They get 15% at minimum, that's not an insignificant amount of gas based electricity. Germany has plans for 30+ NEW natural gas powerplants to be build until 2030 to phase out coal AND nuclear. Keeping on the nuclear power plants would be a good idea, but it's ideologically impossible with the Greens in government.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:20
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1504098983895080965 I suspect a lot of this is Russia spinning lies to to create expectations across the West that peace may just around the corner, so that when it isn't (because Russia is lying through its teeth and shelling hospitals), the West loses patience with Ukraine and pushes them to agree to a deal that they otherwise wouldn't. I mean, even before the invasion, I got the impression that Russia's strategy was to try to get the West (most likely Germany and France, but possibly the US) to pressure Ukraine into accepting unacceptable terms. To basically do a Chamberlain and pull the rug out from under Zelensky.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:20
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spacetoaster posted:I don't know what Crimea going back to Ukraine would even look like. It'd be pretty bloody though. You're still misinterpreting. Any deal at this point would likely require Ukraine acknowledging Crimea as part of Russia. Something the Poroshenko crowd would see as a "stab in the back" even if its essentially a victory considering Putin's original aims.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:21
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GaussianCopula posted:Germany has plans for 30+ NEW natural gas powerplants to be build until 2030 to phase out coal AND nuclear. Yes this too, but its unlikely they'll have the gas to fuel these plants now, even if they can satisfy demand for this year. They need those nuclear plants, its outright cognitive dissonance they continue to work on closing them down.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:21
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Youth Decay posted:Ukraine (without Russia breathing down their necks, after reconstructing their infrastructure) will be able to supply a majority of their own power, between their nuclear, natural gas, coal, oil, and hydropower plants. Hopefully money flowing in after the war will help with expansion and modernization of these plants, so this should be a win-win for all sides except Russia. Ukraine has the capability to expand generation and export it to Europe. It would be rich indeed if Ukraine becomes an energy supplier, even a small one, while Europe weans itself from Russia's.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:21
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Tigey posted:I suspect a lot of this is Russia spinning lies to to create expectations across the West that peace may just around the corner, so that when it isn't (because Russia is lying through its teeth and shelling hospitals), the West loses patience with Ukraine and pushes them to agree to a deal that they otherwise wouldn't. Which would make it a sweet irony if China ends up pressuring Russia into accepting whatever is necessary to end the war.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:22
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KitConstantine posted:A formality, but an important box to check I think if sanctions are going to increase Like several other European countries they have no choice, cause their power economy is extremely dependent on Russian natural gas. Also the Green Party is part of the current government and would make itself the laughing stock of the country if Germany now reopened nuclear powerplants (the whole party was founded out of a civil movement against nuclear power and the CASTOR transports), coal plants or started importing liquid gas per fuel-hungry tankers. It will take years until they are disentangled from that dependency. Hammerstein fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 17:22
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Slashrat posted:When I see Cuba, Venezuela, Iraq and North Korea brought up as proof of sanctions against Russia being pointless, I wonder who is looking at those countries and going "Yeah, they got the military and economic power to roll over their neighbors."
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Mar 16, 2022 17:23
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CommieGIR posted:Yes this too, but its unlikely they'll have the gas to fuel these plants now, even if they can satisfy demand for this year. It's really topsy-turvy that Germany has suffered somewhat of a diplomatic isolation, or rather loss of influence, from this event.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:24
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Tigey posted:I suspect a lot of this is Russia spinning lies to to create expectations across the West that peace may just around the corner, so that when it isn't (because Russia is lying through its teeth and shelling hospitals), the West loses patience with Ukraine and pushes them to agree to a deal that they otherwise wouldn't. It worked with Israel! Until it didn't (I think). What's the ukrainian term for "go pound sand"? ...I imagine it has more than a few "fucks" in it.
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Mar 16, 2022 17:26
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