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mobby_6kl posted:I agree, but something will have to give. It's defacto russsian and short of Ukrainain tanks rolling through red square, it's not going back. The population is brainwashed / cleansed enough to not be in favor of that eihter. Russia absolutely should not be rewarded with such recognition of illegal anexation but Ukraine would have to have a decisive vicotry on the ground to maintain the status quo on this front. I agree that Ukraine will have to make concessions in any scenario short of (unrealistic) internal collapse in Russia. I simply would like to note that at the moment the popular opinion is not there yet for Ukraine to concede Crimea. I could only _vaguely_ imagine them “selling” Crimea in exchange for Russia dropping “neutrality” demands, which I doesn’t feel like an offer Russia would ever entertain. FishBulbia posted:Ru prop channels showing fighting in central Mariupol now My impression over yesterday was that Russia is successfully expanding its foothold in the city, establishing strongholds like that hospital. I can only hope that the word about them taking 500 people essentially hostage in that hospital is false, but the evidence on the ground, wrt Russian treatment of Ukrainian civilians, does lend some serious credence to the allegation.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:00
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Ynglaur posted:Starstreak isn't likely to help against ballistic missiles. The operator needs to maintain a sight picture on the target. Ballistic missiles likely travel too fast. Even a fast moving jet will be difficult, though probably slightly easier at longer ranges. 4.35 mile/ 7km range.  I'm sure Ukraine will welcome as many usable missiles as possible. edit: numbers
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Mar 16, 2022 18:00
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Youth Decay posted:gently caress gently caress gently caress. Russia bombed a theater in Mariupol full of people sheltering. loving direct impact, destroyed. Reports of up to 1000 people inside. Russians have good aim when they want to. I feel sick.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Without, surely. (referring to 'ending with/without razed Ukraine or Russian occupation) No, I was just being clumsy with my words as usual. I actually do think that the idea that Russia can just stay and level the country is absurd. An occupation is impossible for practical reasons (not enough troops, population is too angry). If Russia really just starts systematically levelling cities and massacring civilians week after week - they will run out of ammunition and fuel. Ok, China might supply them, but I doubt that. I can't see this ending any other way than a Russian retreat or defeat (either possibly claimed as a victory). Hopefully without foreign intervention. But Russia won't win this now. I was skeptical in the beginning that they could win, and have only become more so over time. At this point, I think it is inevitable that they must withdraw from Ukraine. Ukraine is devastated, but not razed to the ground. I hope this will end sooner rather than later, as this means less devastation and loss of life in the end. Like the nihilists and egoists who want Ukraine to surrender or fall asap, so this can end - I want Russia to retreat or collapse militarily asap, so this can end. Because the longer it goes on, the more suffering, and the higher risk of intervention - which even though my heart cries out for it, I realize it carries too much risk of escalation. So this must end with a Russian defeat. And yes, that does create some future problems regarding Crimea and internal Russian stability. Still, I believe it is inevitable, and China should be consulted on how to handle such an eventuality. PederP fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 18:02
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Holy loving hell, that video that Zelensky showed Congress is absolutely heart-breaking. It suddenly got very dusty in my house.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:02
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Russia apparently moving in Armenians, Ossetians and Abkahzians now. In addition to the Wagner nazis, Syrian mercs and Kadyrovites. Russia is suffering casualties but the reason for those losses seems to be logistics, training and morale. Not obvious how more people will resolve it. The question is if Russia is straight up out of non-conscript forces or Putin wants to minimize casualties in the regular forces for the sake of public opinion.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:06
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KitConstantine posted:Reports of up to 1000 people inside. Every such atrocity is an escalation, in addition to a crime against humanity. It is time the world starts warning Russia that they will be responsible if this escalates. China also needs to be asked to please use their power to end this by not siding with those who commit such evil. I believe there is a limit to what they will accept. It may seem absurd, but scale and appearance does matter in that regard. The Chinese government does not want to be seen as siding with evil.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:07
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Biden is being very general in what exactly they are sending. But if it's 9000 Javelin missiles, whoa nelly 
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Mar 16, 2022 18:08
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https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607 Previous cease fire position was just Russia's side of it. Ukraine is not having any.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:08
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Randarkman posted:https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1280257955787661315?cxt=HHwWhoC7ufz0scQjAAAA Last time I checked these "rugged individuals" had violated a lot of people's rights, stolen their land and taken their freedom. The land of the free is soaked with the blood of slavery and genocide.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:09
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Deteriorata posted:https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1504136862277017607 Which is encouraging, because it means we're unlikely to see a deal worse than that. Now it's a matter of further negotiations and battlefield defeats to wear down that position.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:09
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KitConstantine posted:Reports of up to 1000 people inside. Of course Russian media and its troll army are claiming an Azov battalion was inside. It's Mariupol, the city has been loving blockaded for three weeks, why the gently caress would Azov be there? The people were sheltering in the theater because their homes were destroyed, where do the survivors go now?
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Mar 16, 2022 18:09
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Slight bright note - Russians reportedly released kidnapped mayor Ivan Federov https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1504142600604987393?t=W6yyD0-y7UYcTpdrFVDJmQ&s=19
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Mar 16, 2022 18:10
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Hammerstein posted:Last time I checked these "rugged individuals" had violated a lot of people's rights, stolen their land and taken their freedom. The land of the free is soaked with the blood of slavery and genocide. Yeah but they weren't white so it doesn't count to him.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:10
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Hammerstein posted:Last time I checked these "rugged individuals" had violated a lot of people's rights, stolen their land and taken their freedom. The land of the free is soaked with the blood of slavery and genocide. Look, we dont talk about Bruno no no no. Especially in TX.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:10
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Gotcha, thank you for clarifying. I don’t necessarily agree on the military perspective quite yet, but it’s a fair take to have. I am, ultimately, sceptical that the Russian Federation as we’ve known it can survive the consequences of their actions without a generational transformation. Trump posted:Biden is being very general in what exactly they are sending. But if it's 9000 Javelin missiles, whoa nelly That would be over $1bn in Javelins.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:14
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Gotcha, thank you for clarifying. I don’t necessarily agree on the military perspective quite yet, but it’s a fair take to have. I am, ultimately, sceptical that the Russian Federation as we’ve known it can survive the consequences of their actions without a generational transformation. American MIC needs business. Also this means US military get fresh new stuff. What we are sending to Ukr is our older stocks, many nearing end of shelf life anyway.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:16
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AP news article from the only journalists that have been allowed into Mariupol. The death toll in this city is going to be far more than the 25,000 that has been previously quoted. If not from bombs, than from starvation.  for photos of dead/dying children https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-descends-into-despair-708cb8f4a171ce3f1c1b0b8d090e38e3
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Mar 16, 2022 18:17
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PederP posted:Someone must be weeping at whatever Russian intelligence service was responsible for manipulating Germany energy policy and American politics to a degree that is almost an absurd claim on par with the discourse of the conspiracy subculture, also engineered by Russian psy-ops. Years of masterful work has been poured down the drain by not having a dictator and military to match the skill of these master manipulators.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:17
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The question is if it can get there. That strike by Lviv was meant to send a message that western aid is not going to be viewed as benign.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:17
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FishBulbia posted:The question is if it can get there. That strike by Lviv was meant to send a message that western aid is not going to be viewed as benign. Its going to get there at this point. The strike on Lviv didn't change anything, and nobody was under the impression that Russia couldn't strike at supplies before.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:19
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Morrow posted:Which is encouraging, because it means we're unlikely to see a deal worse than that. Now it's a matter of further negotiations and battlefield defeats to wear down that position. also https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504135065571368966 even that would be very bad for putin. putin doesnt have any good endings right now.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:20
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Youth Decay posted:AP news article from the only journalists that have been allowed into Mariupol. The death toll in this city is going to be far more than the 25,000 that has been previously quoted. If not from bombs, than from starvation. do you mean 2,500? also, I cant imagine going INTO Mariupol right now.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:20
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Zhanism posted:American MIC needs business. Also this means US military get fresh new stuff. What we are sending to Ukr is our older stocks, many nearing end of shelf life anyway. CommieGIR posted:Its going to get there at this point. The strike on Lviv didn't change anything, and nobody was under the impression that Russia couldn't strike at supplies before. Plus it looks like we're getting more SAMs in finally
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Mar 16, 2022 18:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504135065571368966 even that would be very bad for putin. putin doesnt have any good endings right now. Cool and good if real can't see no recognition of Crimea though
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Mar 16, 2022 18:22
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A women who used to be a friend of my wife, has gone totally nutso. Wife stopped talking to her well before Trump got elected, when this idiot told her that Sandy Hook was staged with actors. So saw this tweet today. A real WTF? https://twitter.com/sarabellag/status/1503959314255339521?s=21 Insane.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:22
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FishBulbia posted:Cool and good if real They keep saying this, and this appears to be entirely from the Russian perspective. So I'd continue to take it with a grain of salt.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:23
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504135065571368966 even that would be very bad for putin. putin doesnt have any good endings right now. This is the same package as before that includes recognition of Russia's claims to Crimea and the separatist republics, which are sticking points for Ukraine (and something resembling a win for Putin.)
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Mar 16, 2022 18:23
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FishBulbia posted:Cool and good if real Ukraine is not going to cede Crimea. They will at best leave it as contested.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:24
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FishBulbia posted:The question is if it can get there. That strike by Lviv was meant to send a message that western aid is not going to be viewed as benign. I believe it was more of terror tactic against foreign volunteers. Ukraine could use the less hardened and experienced volunteers for labor, rear territory patrol/sentry duty, etc. Not to mention the propaganda effect of foreign volunteers. The russian strikes in the west had the effect of killing, maiming and scaring off many of the currently barracked volunteers - and likely also had an effect in deterring some who might be on the fence about returning. If there is a resurgence of international news of volunteers arriving, I believe Russia will try to repeat the strike. It was less against foreign supply of material and more a strike against the (supposedly) thousands of volunteers.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:24
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504135065571368966 even that would be very bad for putin. putin doesnt have any good endings right now. What does legal status mean? Deteriorata posted:Ukraine is not going to cede Crimea. They will at best leave it as contested. Having occupied lands is a complete block to any possible EU or NATO membership - it could be argued there's a realpolitik benefit to ceding those lands (short of NATO attacking Russia, I don't see how else Ukraine gets de facto control back one day).
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Mar 16, 2022 18:25
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FishBulbia posted:do you mean 2,500? No, 25,000 was the last number I heard. Mariupol is a city of over 400,000. Was. It's being shelled constantly, bombed daily, all civilian targets. The dead aren't even being counted as they are thrown into the mass graves.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:25
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1504135065571368966 even that would be very bad for putin. putin doesnt have any good endings right now. all he needs is an ending that he can spin as a victory and it seems the above would fit the bill
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Mar 16, 2022 18:25
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Randarkman posted:https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1280257955787661315?cxt=HHwWhoC7ufz0scQjAAAA Comically bad take it was done by the planter and merchant classes to seize economic and political power from an empire that didn't know how to deal with a early industrial satellite state because they were mercantilists and their economic model worked on centralizing industry.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:25
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Deteriorata posted:Ukraine is not going to cede Crimea. They will at best leave it as contested. Okay, and Russia is not going to stop any time soon unless it gets that, even with its losses.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:26
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FishBulbia posted:I am keeping a running tally of baffling takes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yITfyHYQTlw
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Mar 16, 2022 18:26
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Zlodo posted:all he needs is an ending that he can spin as a victory and it seems the above would fit the bill Guys: This is what Russia is saying it wants: Right now, Ukraine is not going to be neutral, unless Russia is just drumming this up for internal consumption, nearly none of these would be acceptable for Ukraine.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:26
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Youth Decay posted:No, 25,000 was the last number I heard. Mariupol is a city of over 400,000. Was. It's being shelled constantly, bombed daily, all civilian targets. The dead aren't even being counted as they are thrown into the mass graves. I know about Mariupol. Never got the chance to go there tho. 25k though, my brain just doesnt register that I cant believe it
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Mar 16, 2022 18:27
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Zlodo posted:all he needs is an ending that he can spin as a victory and it seems the above would fit the bill the holy poopacy posted:This is the same package as before that includes recognition of Russia's claims to Crimea and the separatist republics, which are sticking points for Ukraine (and something resembling a win for Putin.) all of this is russias outline of things still i was more posting Grozev point where russia is deeply hosed if this is what their demands are. and they probably won't fly.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:27
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FishBulbia posted:Okay, and Russia is not going to stop any time soon unless it gets that, even with its losses. Ukraine still thinks it can win this war. They're not going to concede anything as long as they believe that.
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Mar 16, 2022 18:28
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