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D-Pad posted:Is this too long for a new thread title? Honestly the thread title should have been "invade poland" for a while now Ukraine: Invade Poland, bitch Evilreaver fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Mar 18, 2022 |
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Mar 18, 2022 05:17
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I wonder if the russians have got any nukes pointed at Finland? I'd figure at least Helsinki.
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Mar 18, 2022 08:23
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His Divine Shadow posted:I wonder if the russians have got any nukes pointed at Finland? I'd figure at least Helsinki. During the Cold War, both NATO (the US, factually) and the Soviets had designated nuking targets in Finland, mostly places like airports, harbours and things like that*. And the adjacent cities, of course. One big concern of the West was stopping the Red Army from marching through Lapland into Norway, so a preemptive nuke or a few there might slow the Soviets down. And the Soviets planned on attempting to stop Western nuclear missiles in Finnish air space, which would probably also be a bad thing for Finland. Obviously it's impossible to know what the current, non-Soviet Russia has planned, but presumably their immediate interests in case of WW3 would be denying NATO the use of Finnish air space and the like. *See e.g. Rislakki, Paha Sektori
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Mar 18, 2022 08:39
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What are the chances Russia's nukes are in as good condition as the rest of their gear? How many colonels have quietly diverted their share of the silo maintenence fund into their own strategic booze aquisition program?
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Mar 18, 2022 10:34
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Tree Bucket posted:What are the chances Russia's nukes are in as good condition as the rest of their gear? How many colonels have quietly diverted their share of the silo maintenence fund into their own strategic booze aquisition program? There is definitely no way of knowing. And even if they're in absolutely terrible shape, that probably just means some of them won't work, which is better than the alternative only in very relative terms.
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Mar 18, 2022 16:56
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVK39HyjjdY
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Mar 18, 2022 17:10
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Tree Bucket posted:What are the chances Russia's nukes are in as good condition as the rest of their gear? How many colonels have quietly diverted their share of the silo maintenence fund into their own strategic booze aquisition program? Better question: What are the chances that they've already tried to launch a tactical nuke, and they looked into why nothing fired, it turned out that the silo was just full of old pinball machine parts.
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Mar 18, 2022 21:02
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:Better question:
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Mar 18, 2022 21:24
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Please forgive my Kramering, I promise it's on topic. Have y'all read Clancy's The Sum of All Fears or seen the movie? Well... https://twitter.com/davidlgutman/status/1504133554447392780
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Mar 18, 2022 23:19
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staticman posted:Please forgive my Kramering, I promise it's on topic. he might be looking for child "recruits" or some poo poo or something worse. he isnt smart and now that his face/name are out, he will get pinched at some point in poland and jailed there and probably here.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:44
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Dapper_Swindler posted:he might be looking for child "recruits" or some poo poo or something worse. he isnt smart and now that his face/name are out, he will get pinched at some point in poland and jailed there and probably here. He drat well for sure is, no doubt about it. Just a refresher on this guy: He was a Washington State senator who was driven out by the state House of Representatives, after they found him plotting and engaging in terrorism, from the Malheur occupation, and plotting a Putin-style invasion of Western Washington. Shea in his writings described "Proper Christian Warfare" as killing all the men and making all women into sex slaves. Yes, his plan involved the use of child soldiers.
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Mar 18, 2022 23:59
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staticman posted:He drat well for sure is. Just a refresher on this guy: He was a Washington State senator who was driven out by the state House of Representatives, after they found him plotting and engaging in terrorism, from the Malheur occupation, and plotting a Putin-style invasion of Western Washington. Shea in his writings described "Proper Christian Warfare" as killing all the men and making all women into sex slaves. Yes, his plan involved the use of child soldiers. What would a Putin-style invasion of western Washington even look like?
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Mar 19, 2022 00:00
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mawarannahr posted:What would a Putin-style invasion of western Washington even look like? As a resident of Western Washington I'd rather not find out first hand, however from what we're seeing I'd have to guess the attempt to take Olympia would be an even bigger failfest quagmire than what we're seeing right now. Edit: I'm not sure if there's even a casus belli that's even half as strong as Putin's "denazification" poo poo. It'd just be naked chest-thumping of "we're rolling in and conquering these filthy heathens and no one in their right mind will stop us!" staticman fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Mar 19, 2022 |
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Mar 19, 2022 00:04
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staticman posted:As a resident of Western Washington I'd rather not find out first hand, however from what we're seeing I'd have to guess the attempt to take Olympia would be an even bigger failfest quagmire than what we're seeing right now. I’m trying to picture the scenario you named. Would Shea be Putin in this case or some type of Donbas warlord? Is the plan to manufacture a casus belli to draw in a Russian invasion of Washington? If not the Russians, then whom? Fictional Nazi Canada?
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Mar 19, 2022 00:30
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mawarannahr posted:I’m trying to picture the scenario you named. Would Shea be Putin in this case or some type of Donbas warlord? Is the plan to manufacture a casus belli to draw in a Russian invasion of Washington? If not the Russians, then whom? Fictional Nazi Canada? With all the redoubt poo poo going on out here, he'd would've been a Donbass & Luhansk, with Lincoln, Jefferson & Greater Idaho. Far as who the big invaders are realistically there's not many foreign options without the risk of NATO rushing in to back the US/WA State, and all the escalations that entails. It'd be more likely for a Trump or a loyalist GOP president to launch a mission to "restore order in the Anarchist Jurisdiction", with full hard artillery and airstrikes. I'm not confident they wouldn't. Comedy answer: Canada.
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Mar 19, 2022 01:50
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staticman posted:With all the redoubt poo poo going on out here, he'd would've been a Donbass & Luhansk, with Lincoln, Jefferson & Greater Idaho. Far as who the big invaders are realistically there's not many foreign options without the risk of NATO rushing in to back the US/WA State, and all the escalations that entails. It'd be more likely for a Trump or a loyalist GOP president to launch a mission to "restore order in the Anarchist Jurisdiction", with full hard artillery and airstrikes. I'm not confident they wouldn't. I lived a few blocks from the CHAZ/CHOP, when it was around in Seattle. On Juny 4th weekend, we had Proud Boys, III%ers, and other assorted Fash come up to "rescue Seattle from ANTIFA" or some ridiculousness. It didn't take long for us ANTIFA to absolutely run them out of town. They haven't been back since.
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Mar 19, 2022 06:27
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Putin Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Saysquote:President Vladimir Putin can be expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion continues, draining conventional manpower and equipment, according to a new assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency. Putin nukes Kyiv, What does NATO do? I suspect immediately send the 82nd airborne and NATO aircraft in to help Ukraine, with direct message to Putin that he needs to get out of Ukraine. NATO clears the skies within 12 hours and starts bombing of AAA and SAM sites. 'Corse Putin's plan is exactly what the 5th FSB letter said he would do, but it also said he would NOT use nukes, only threaten them. But that was the same FSB analyst who assumed Putin wouldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine in the first place.
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Mar 19, 2022 13:43
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Comstar posted:Putin Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Says This sort of response just leads into global nuclear war though, doesn't it. Attacking AAA and SAM sites limits Russia's ability to defend itself against a nuclear strike from the west, so it's what you'd potentially do as a prelude to sending in the B2s, and NATO intervening like this on the side of Ukraine means that they've entered a war where the nuclear gloves just came off, Russia would have every reason to expect a nuclear retaliation in this case. Which, I think, means that such a response would not come. The sanctions would get worse, but I don't think it escalates further to war with Russia. That said, if it happened I'd be immediately grabbing my bag and leaving for the highlands, just in case there's time to escape.
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Mar 19, 2022 14:21
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Comstar posted:Putin Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Says If Putin actually starts using nukes against civilian targets in Ukraine I think that makes NATO military intervention less likely, because it portrays him as being in a mindset where he'd nuke them too. Instead it would isolate Russia from the world much more than it already is, with Europe cutting off all gas and oil purchases and China and India joining the sanctions. It would also swing public support in those regions around - it's one thing to try to claim it's really the US and NATO's fault Russia is invading, it's another (and pretty much impossible to hide) if Russia starts nuking a non-nuclear country.
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Mar 19, 2022 15:55
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If he starts using nukes, I think the time for sitting at the sideline and just letting Russia do its thing has passed.
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Mar 19, 2022 16:42
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Using a nuke is something where it becomes the moral duty and genuine self-interest of every single nation to make an extremely public example of you.
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Mar 19, 2022 17:09
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If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, I think de-colonization of Russia would suddenly seriously be on the table. Sovereignty for Siberia would become an overnight necessity, along with recognizing all historical land claims by neighboring states; China, Japan, Finland, Georgia, etc
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Mar 19, 2022 17:31
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Using a nuke is something where it becomes the moral duty and genuine self-interest of every single nation to make an extremely public example of you. And if there wasn't a genuine concern that doing so could end civilization I think that would be sufficient deterrence.
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Mar 19, 2022 17:33
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Volmarias posted:And if there wasn't a genuine concern that doing so could end civilization I think that would be sufficient deterrence. at the point where its reality instead of theory not doing so could also end civilization and people are going to pick the option where using nukes doesn't become a normal thing nuclear powers do,
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Mar 19, 2022 17:37
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mawarannahr posted:What would a Putin-style invasion of western Washington even look like? Based on current events probably lots of dead invaders and a bunch of Rednecks terrorising the countryside with Soviet tanks?
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Mar 19, 2022 20:03
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Wouldnt even need to bother with the army to defend CONUS, just throw a handful of sovcit militia at them ans watch the invaders fold 
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Mar 19, 2022 20:23
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mawarannahr posted:What would a Putin-style invasion of western Washington even look like? One day people start noticing frozen corpses in VDV uniforms washing up along the coastline.
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Mar 19, 2022 20:28
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Mass paradrop intended to seize I-90 at the pass lands off target four miles to the north
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Mar 19, 2022 21:03
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:at the point where its reality instead of theory not doing so could also end civilization and people are going to pick the option where using nukes doesn't become a normal thing nuclear powers do, And what would you suggest to make sure Russia doesn't use nukes again that doesn't end civilization? I don't see how NATO can respond that won't result in WW3, which is what they're trying to avoid Willo567 fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 19, 2022 |
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Mar 19, 2022 21:48
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Willo567 posted:And what would you suggest to make sure Russia doesn't use nukes again that doesn't end civilization? And if NATO doesn't respond, what stops Russia from using nukes again anyway? A strong response that makes it clear you're pissed at least puts everybody in Russia who does not want to die in nuclear fire on notice they need to Do Something about Putin being a nut rather than wringing their hands; if you don't make a strong enough response you've just encouraged them to let him keep doing it. The headache is of course not pushing it to WW3 yourself by how you respond, but too weak a response is just as bad as too strong for the goal of no nuclear war. Unfortunately I'm afraid any response less than some level of military intervention is going to be too weak a response if we get an actual unprovoked WMD use here. I'm still hopeful enough people in Russia agree with that assessment to keep things from going that far; Putin being a sponge-brain increasingly ranting about nukes is bad, but at least the NATO pushback to that doesn't need to involve direct violence, unlike actually crossing that line which probably does need it.
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Mar 20, 2022 23:14
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This was great. How the hell do you write like this about the Soviet vets of Afghanistan then say "yee haw let's penetrate Afghanistan and Iraq" *sigh* I guess art and politics are two different things
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Mar 21, 2022 01:06
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Saying this in the main thread will get me probated: The 3 leaders who went to Ukraine last week, were there to tell Zelisksy that they are coming to his aid. Biden is going to Poland this week to try and ask to stop them, personally. The 3 countries will send in "Peacekeepers" into western Ukraine, but not beyond the Diniper. They will stop Russian air strikes in the western half and free up Ukrainian forces to relieve Kiev. They will also stop Belrus from doing anything dumb like invading western Ukraine and trying to take Liev. Your move Putin.
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Mar 21, 2022 09:16
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:The collective response of every country besides China to COVID-19 has been at best to do nothing, and at worst to actively collaborate with it. Maybe smallpox 2: electric boogaloo would be different - I don't know if there are effective treatments the wealthy could use to insulate themselves - but I mean, we already have proof positive that the reaction of the modern world to a deadly disease that maims and murders millions is 'lol' There is a wildly huge difference between a virus that kills 2% of the people who get it (almost all of them old people) and a virus that kills 30% of the people who get it.
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Mar 21, 2022 11:46
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Comstar posted:Saying this in the main thread will get me probated: The 3 leaders who went to Ukraine last week, were there to tell Zelisksy that they are coming to his aid. Are you shooting piss or is there something to back that up?
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Mar 22, 2022 07:11
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Charlz Guybon posted:There is a wildly huge difference between a virus that kills 2% of the people who get it (almost all of them old people) and a virus that kills 30% of the people who get it. 30% is still a dismal fail grade so what hope does a high-school dropout virus have against my Adonis-like immune system?
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Mar 22, 2022 07:13
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Outrail posted:Are you shooting piss or is there something to back that up? Err. it's more just clancychat. But the Poles are talking more about the "threat from Russia" and if it was the back cover of a Tom Clancy/Clive Cussler/Craig Thomas novel, it would be act 1. And there's a lot more random people discussing "can Poland go in alone without NATO" and the conses seems to be - "Yes. Yes they can". If they WILL not remains to be seen. What's Poland mobilization status.
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Mar 22, 2022 12:09
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The Russian embassy in Poland is burning documents. Traditionally that’s when you’re about to be declared persona no grata. Or it’s war.
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Mar 23, 2022 02:21
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Comstar posted:The Russian embassy in Poland is burning documents. https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C1127289%2Cpoland-may-expel-russian-diplomats-spying-unofficial.html They are in process of being expelled.
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Mar 23, 2022 12:31
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The closer the Russians get to the Polish border the greater the odds of an unfortunate accidental incident and that would be just a slight bit of an escalation of the crisis.
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Mar 23, 2022 16:47
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Comstar posted:Err. it's more just clancychat. Given how spectacularly well the Russians are doing I suspect the Lichtenstein-Monaco military alliance could make a surprising go of it.
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Mar 23, 2022 17:06
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