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Tomn posted:One thing I'm curious about (if you're still in a position to ask questions and the guy can actually answer them) is - I can get that the invasion of Iraq might have freaked the Russians out (now THAT is a legitimate security concern, if you please), but what did they think or conclude about its aftermath? What did they make of the US's continuing insurgency problems and the messy eventual pullout? And perhaps the million dollar question: How did they look at what the US got out of Iraq and concluded "Yes, this is a good idea, this is a thing we too would like to do"? Purely a matter of internal propaganda convincing Putin that they could power through problems with sheer Russian resolve or something as per point 3? I think it's useful to remember that in 2002 the US was talking lots about the 'axis of evil', a list that kept changing and getting longer depending on who was talking. I think it was reasonable to believe that had Iraq not turned into a quagmire then US foreign policy would have been to continue to work down the list of undemocratic malign actors and squeeze them until they crack one by one. Russia was never mentioned on that list, but the Kremlin would have had to have known they hit all the critera to be the target of a bit of regime change one day.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:49
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Tomn posted:One thing I'm curious about (if you're still in a position to ask questions and the guy can actually answer them) is - I can get that the invasion of Iraq might have freaked the Russians out (now THAT is a legitimate security concern, if you please), but what did they think or conclude about its aftermath? What did they make of the US's continuing insurgency problems and the messy eventual pullout? And perhaps the million dollar question: How did they look at what the US got out of Iraq and concluded "Yes, this is a good idea, this is a thing we too would like to do"? Purely a matter of internal propaganda convincing Putin that they could power through problems with sheer Russian resolve or something as per point 3? I will make sure to ask him next time I run into him, because those are excellent questions. Personally, though, I would point out that the goal the Russians seem to have in Ukraine is rather different from the one the US had in Iraq ( which, as far as I can tell was to just go in, get Saddam and then, uhhhhhmmmmm.... pro...fit? Freedom? Somethingsomething. ): They most definitely wanted to knock out Kyiv and get a puppet government in place, bringing Ukraine back under their thumb. So I'll hazard the guess that they absolutely didn't expect it to be a concern, because unlike the stupid Americans, Russia actually sets a clear, achievable goal. So again, I personally think that point 3 is in full effect here: They had a plan that looked reasonable ( and in principle it isn't a bad plan, not really ), but they deluded themselves into thinking the Ukrainians would give up, Zelenskyy would flee like a spineless coward, and they'd be greeted as liberators... Because that's what they'd told everyone else would happen. Still, that's me. I'll ask his former ambassadorness when I see him next.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:51
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Saladman posted:Plus also what, do you change the spelling of a word every few decades when pronunciations gradually shift? I guess "yes" (re: Bombay/Mumbai)? It also seems bizarre to insist that people call New Zealand "Aotearoa", like maybe check what the people living in a place like their home to be called, rather than forcing some name change on them? The name of New Zealand per all recent official/government communication is now Aotearoa New Zealand and over the last 10-20 years there's been a huge push to decolonize and indigenize government communications about the country. So yes, I do think there's reason to support and accelerate that transition. I am also sad that the effort, however quixotic, to indigenize the flag failed. Also laser kiwi was good. I think if the problem is "pronunciations slowly drifting" that's much smaller than "calling something by something that's not its name". I also don't call Indigenous Americans "indians" or a Jamaican a "West Indian" for the same reason. quote:Lots of places have multiple names and I don't see why everyone should be forced to use the same approximate pronunciation and spelling in every language, and then places with multiple local names like Matterhorn/Cervinia can... start fights over what to call it in English, and Chinese, and Japanese, etc? I guess maybe some people care for English since it's the international language, but does anyone give a poo poo about how Spanish people spell the capital of Ukraine? No one is being forced to do anything. It's pretty weird that me saying "I think we should generally, gradually, and especially in response to requests aim to use more neutral naming practices, especially around politically sensitive stuff" reads to some as "Everyone should be forced to use names they don't want to". Again this feels like an extremely conservative response, just affectively conservative in the sense of being deeply skeptical to little symbolic changes. I have no idea if anyone gives a poo poo how Spanish people spell the capital of Ukraine, but if I was Spanish I would support homogenizing the Spanish spelling of the capital to that which was requested by Ukrainians. Obviously there exist border cases like Matterhorn, it's reasonable to say not every change is as easy, but when talking about mountains we just finished a decade where we force Mt. McKinley to be Denali and Ayer's Rock to be Uluru and in both cases life moves on. I'm not calling for the public flogging of someone who says McKinley, I'm calling for people to be generally aware and on the lookout and ready to update. All my new GitHub branches are main instead of master and it's not because I think people are bad if they use master, it's because it's a minor easy to do thing. One thing I would say about border cases is that if it is a politically or militarily contested border, the choice to prefer one name over the other in English likely reflects historical structures of power and we should at least consider that. quote:The renaming of Swaziland to eSwatini also bothered me, although I see it is now seemingly universally written Eswatini. Dutch names like "IJseelmeer" written in English are also bizarre, like if someone was insisting on Chinese publications writing literally "New York City" instead of 纽约. idk, I agree diacritics and unusual capitalization or punctuation seem outwardly less native English, but that still seems like a pretty minor beef compared to just using the actual name in at least rough approximation. I an E/F fluent and I would typically say "Cote d'Ivoire" in English but not add the circumflex; not strictly correct, but also closer. Turning a bigger problem into a smaller one strikes me as an improvement. quote:Anyway it's a kind of universal issue, like how people will forever "dead name" "Ye" (previously Kanye West) and [Love Symbol] as "Prince" instead of their 'preferred name', but everyone uses "Charlie Sheen" instead of "Carlos Estevez". Like you can only have your renaming irritating to a certain degree before people push back. Adding in characters or diacritics that are not used in the alphabet/language that you're trying to get renamed into kind of pushes the boundaries there - I'm looking at you too "Côte d'Ivoire". I think Kanye and Prince (and whatever the current incarnation of Diddy and/or John Mellencamp are) got called by their previous names because their requests to update were portrayed in public at the time as being symptomatic of a mental break or weird foppy artist behaviour. Since Prince's death I think it's basically been universally revised to recognize that he was fighting for some pretty agreeable stuff in the face of poor treatment and as odd as the symbol was, we reacted poorly when it was played for laughs. In Kanye's case I think we also shouldn't laugh at him, but I also think we shouldn't platform him at all because he's an extremely odious person who behaves abusively in public and the correct response to that is to deny him a megaphone. The comparatively more agreeable Kelly "Clarkson" and Mackenzie "Bezos" are surely going to continue struggling getting people to use their actual names. To the extent irritation is a criterion, the irritation should at least be based on the actual difficulty of making the change and not merely a tendency to dismiss people asking for one. I should say all of this is incredibly minor -- the conversation started with Chicken Kiev versus Chicken Kyiv -- but it's possible to deal with minor things without avoiding major things. I'm able to use "Irish Traveler" and also worry about the existentially difficult policy issues around Irish Travelers in Irish society. And if Ireland was called Hibernia in English instead of Ireland, I'd prefer people change to Ireland/Eire. Man Plan Canal fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Mar 18, 2022 |
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Mar 18, 2022 17:52
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TLM3101 posted:I'm not sure I buy that. We'll never actually know, but pre-2014 there was an actual, internal debate in Ukrainian politics and you could be a vocally pro-Russia politician and get elected to high office ( Yanukovych, for instance ). Now? Not a chance. 2014 and the events following the annexation of Krym, pretty thoroughly poisoned the well for any pro-Russian politician going forward. They might have made a comeback if Krym/Donbas/Luhansk was the end of it, but with the current invasion Putin has absolutely assured a strong element of "Ukraine-as-part-of-Europe" in their national identity, whereas before it was a lot more up for debate whether or not they should look to Russia or Europe, or try to be a bridge between them. My memory could be hazy, but I was already following Russo-Ukrainian relations well before Euromaidan (and clearly didn't understand all that much, because I had all but dismissed the chance of something like Euromaidan happening, Ukraine was going to firmly become a part of the Russian sphere in my mind) and I don't think Yanukovych was that pro-Russian before his final weeks in office. I distinctly seem to remember him trying to do a very delicate dance between appeasing the pro-European and pro-Russian parts of the country. My memory tells me that Yanukovych spoke of Ukraine's "European path" and often tried to present a "European future" as the only one possible for Ukraine. Now this could have been and probably was all talk, but I assume we're talking about getting elected on a pro-Russian platform to begin with.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:54
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fwiw its fine to call Ye Kanye/Kanye West in the context of his music/artist persona, he changed his legal name but still operates under the name 'Kanye West' on releases as recently as Donda 2 from like 2 weeks ago. If you are talking about the man, personally, it's Ye.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:55
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Fabulous Knight posted:My memory could be hazy, but I was already following Russo-Ukrainian relations well before Euromaidan (and clearly didn't understand all that much, because I had all but dismissed the chance of something like Euromaidan happening, Ukraine was going to firmly become a part of the Russian sphere in my mind) and I don't think Yanukovych was that pro-Russian before his final weeks in office. I distinctly seem to remember him trying to do a very delicate dance between appeasing the pro-European and pro-Russian parts of the country. My memory tells me that Yanukovych spoke of Ukraine's "European path" and often tried to present a "European future" as the only one possible for Ukraine. Now this could have been and probably was all talk, but I assume we're talking about getting elected on a pro-Russian platform to begin with. Yanukovych was a puppet candidate in 2004, the beneficiary of the rigged election, and never clearly opposed or even acknowledged the Russian-led dioxin poisoning of Yushchenko. That his actual presidency was not wildly compromised from day one is more of a surprise than the eventual heel turn.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:56
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Pissed Ape Sexist posted:The "Cool Zone" is a somewhat recent American online term for a period or event that is cool/fascinating/important to study and understand as a student of history (revolutions, conflicts, genocides, you get the picture) but is conversely far less cool to actually live through. Okay yeah, that would be hella Cool Zone then. ummel posted:The Z is starting to resemble a frequently misunderstood Hindu symbol for peace . May I offer you the word “zwastika”? Aertuun posted:In a thread where people spent two pages explaining that you can still get wet even if you're on a boat , posts like this are the occasional gem. Fascinating post, thank you! Well actually, we had 2 derails on whether if Europeans use comma or full stop as the decimal separator… In all seriousness, that was a gem of a post, that you quote.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:57
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Feel good post: flower sellers carry on their trade, even in Kyiv bunkers  https://twitter.com/berdynskykh_k/status/1504796439725199360?t=Zye01POJd-jB9Ive_QgDKw&s=19 Also a good sign for Kyiv's supply lines if they can include relative non-essential perishables like flowers
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Mar 18, 2022 17:58
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CommieGIR posted:That's kind of the funny part: Zelenskyy was not a great peace president. His approval ratings were tanking. But he's risen to the challenge in war. The ''Churchill Effect'', a right pain in the arse before & after WW2 but in those few years he was the correct man for the job.  I say that as someone who knows what he authorised in Ireland and India.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:58
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Man Plan Canal posted:Yanukovych was a puppet candidate in 2004, the beneficiary of the rigged election, and never clearly opposed or even acknowledged the Russian-led dioxin poisoning of Yushchenko. That his actual presidency was not wildly compromised from day one is more of a surprise than the eventual heel turn. Oh man, I didn't even realize he was Yuschenko's opponent in the 2004 election. Yeah, around 2010 was when I started following Ukraine and I guess he had had the time to try to present a more moderate image by then.
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Mar 18, 2022 17:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:May I offer you the word “zwastika”? As someone pointed out, they are practically ripping off the bad guys from The Grand Budapest: 
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Mar 18, 2022 18:00
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https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1504860409970495496 It's pretty obvious Russia is just taking out all industry in Ukraine at this point. quote:Metallurgical Combine Azovstal (Ukrainian: Mеталургійний Kомбінат Азовсталь) (PFTS: AZST) is one of the biggest steel rolling companies in Ukraine.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:02
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Fabulous Knight posted:My memory could be hazy, but I was already following Russo-Ukrainian relations well before Euromaidan (and clearly didn't understand all that much, because I had all but dismissed the chance of something like Euromaidan happening, Ukraine was going to firmly become a part of the Russian sphere in my mind) and I don't think Yanukovych was that pro-Russian before his final weeks in office. I distinctly seem to remember him trying to do a very delicate dance between appeasing the pro-European and pro-Russian parts of the country. My memory tells me that Yanukovych spoke of Ukraine's "European path" and often tried to present a "European future" as the only one possible for Ukraine. Now this could have been and probably was all talk, but I assume we're talking about getting elected on a pro-Russian platform to begin with. I mean, my memory is hazy too, so I might very well mis-remember how pro-Russia Yanukovych was, but I seem to recall him pretty immediately upon election in 2010 pivoting to a stance of "we must be a neutral country... and while we want to be part of the EU as a long-term goal, we're eager to cooperate with our good friends in Russia". Of course, it's entirely possibly that I'm remembering him as more outspokenly pro-Russia than he was at the time, so... Man Plan Canal posted:Yanukovych was a puppet candidate in 2004, the beneficiary of the rigged election, and never clearly opposed or even acknowledged the Russian-led dioxin poisoning of Yushchenko. That his actual presidency was not wildly compromised from day one is more of a surprise than the eventual heel turn. Holy poo poo, never mind. I'd completely forgotten about that loving thing. But yeah, that actually goddamned happened.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:05
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It was a number of pages back, but since no one has posted the correct info about Oryx I will. It's two dudes in the Netherlands, Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans. They appear to be paid to promote both Turkish and Israeli arms.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:06
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CommieGIR posted:As someone pointed out, they are practically ripping off the bad guys from The Grand Budapest: There's a Soviet movie from 1938 called If There Is a War Tomorrow. It's about a then-hypothetical war with an axis of some sort consisting of three unspecified fascist nations. One of the made-up nations had Z as its stand-in for swastika. 
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Mar 18, 2022 18:09
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TLM3101 posted:Holy poo poo, never mind. I'd completely forgotten about that loving thing. But yeah, that actually goddamned happened. Yeah that was the big thing, the 2014 Maidan revolution was not happening in a vacuum. It was pretty obvious which way the wind was blowing in Kyiv and people in the west of Ukraine were pissed.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:09
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Hey remember that airport that Ukraine has already attacked at least twice, resulting in a bunch of helicopters getting damaged? Guess who decided to try putting a bunch of stuff there again!!! https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1504862786421207045?s=20&t=N0CBThRG_rftNK_71HcYMw Needs independent confirmation, but if this is accurate Russia is dumber than they've seemed so far, and that's a low bar to snake under.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:10
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:It was a number of pages back, but since no one has posted the correct info about Oryx I will. I knew there was something really loving unsavory with that account. They really really got happy about the Artsakh war.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:11
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Tomn posted:One thing I'm curious about (if you're still in a position to ask questions and the guy can actually answer them) is - I can get that the invasion of Iraq might have freaked the Russians out (now THAT is a legitimate security concern, if you please), but what did they think or conclude about its aftermath? What did they make of the US's continuing insurgency problems and the messy eventual pullout? And perhaps the million dollar question: How did they look at what the US got out of Iraq and concluded "Yes, this is a good idea, this is a thing we too would like to do"? Purely a matter of internal propaganda convincing Putin that they could power through problems with sheer Russian resolve or something as per point 3? It's probably worth keeping in mind that the actual invasion of Iraq went flawlessly — Baghdad was captured within 3 weeks, major combat operations were declared over in just over a week and a month, and out of an invasion force of 177K troops only 172 were killed. The actual insurgency didn't really ramp up until later in 2003, and this was after the US occupation authority made several massive blunders, such as disbanding the Iraqi army and banning anyone who had been a Ba'ath party member from working in the government (Which, unsurprisingly in a dictatorship, made up a huge portion of the government workforce). So it's quite possible that Russia looked at the US occupation, and took away lessons like "Don't disband the army," "Don't ban government workers from doing their jobs and carrying out basic services," and "don't overstay your welcome." Of course, the problem Russia has now has nothing to do with their occupation policies, but in actually winning the invasion in the first place.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:11
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:It was a number of pages back, but since no one has posted the correct info about Oryx I will. I did post the correct info. Kind of, didn’t identify the second Dutch guy involved.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:12
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What's the difference between lightning and artillery? Artillery can hit the same position twice.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:12
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FishBulbia posted:I knew there was something really loving unsavory with that account. They really really got happy about the Artsakh war. When I lived in Los Angeles I followed a bunch of police car chase blotter feeds, mostly because I lived next to the 405 and helicopters buzzed my apartment all the time. But the bummer thing is that everyone who's interested in police chases are like hardcore Blue Lives Matter Thin Blue Line Punisher assholes. This to say that I'm not surprised that military weapons hobbyists also have pretty ugly views about war haha.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:13
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Man Plan Canal posted:The name of New Zealand per all recent official/government communication is now Aotearoa New Zealand and over the last 10-20 years there's been a huge push to decolonize and indigenize government communications about the country. So yes, I do think there's reason to support and accelerate that transition. I am also sad that the effort, however quixotic, to indigenize the flag failed. Also laser kiwi was good. I think if the problem is "pronunciations slowly drifting" that's much smaller than "calling something by something that's not its name". I also don't call Indigenous Americans "indians" or a Jamaican a "West Indian" for the same reason. Yeah, I thought this was a bit of an odd example because even as a random American I'm familiar with Aotearoa because podcasters and television presenters and other bits of NZ culture we get here all use the word a lot, it's hardly some obscure thing.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:14
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TLM3101 posted:I mean, my memory is hazy too, so I might very well mis-remember how pro-Russia Yanukovych was, but I seem to recall him pretty immediately upon election in 2010 pivoting to a stance of "we must be a neutral country... and while we want to be part of the EU as a long-term goal, we're eager to cooperate with our good friends in Russia". That was my very distant interpretation - Yanukovych tried to walk the tightrope of chasing EU economic integration (and that sweet sweet development cash) while remaining politically aligned to Russia and it turned out that tightrope was too narrow to walk. When Moscow signalled that EU partnership was unacceptable it was too late to walk back the promises that had been made to the people. And that's the real root cause of this crisis; Moscow was lazy and didn't pay attention to what its client state was doing.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:14
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KitConstantine posted:Hey remember that airport that Ukraine has already attacked at least twice, resulting in a bunch of helicopters getting damaged? Look the Russian army is all about upward mobility these days
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Mar 18, 2022 18:14
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Acebuckeye13 posted:So it's quite possible that Russia looked at the US occupation, and took away lessons like "Don't disband the army," "Don't ban government workers from doing their jobs and carrying out basic services," and "don't overstay your welcome." Of course, the problem Russia has now has nothing to do with their occupation policies, but in actually winning the invasion in the first place. The problem being they intended to do exactly that. They apparently didn't learn from it.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:15
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IBroughttheFunk posted:Before I read the actual tweet, I genuinely thought I was looking at a photo of a Trump rally for a moment. Where are the Blacks for Putin people they had bussed in?
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Mar 18, 2022 18:17
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KitConstantine posted:Hey remember that airport that Ukraine has already attacked at least twice, resulting in a bunch of helicopters getting damaged? Not to be a jerk, but could the Russians be secretly working out of another place and using this airport as a diversion to suck up more missiles? This situation otherwise seems too good to be true.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:18
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Eric Cantonese posted:Not to be a jerk, but could the Russians be secretly working out of another place and using this airport as a diversion to suck up more missiles? This situation otherwise seems too good to be true. If they are, they have a lot of extra helicopters to waste...
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Mar 18, 2022 18:19
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CommieGIR posted:If they are, they have a lot of extra helicopters to waste... Lotta extra generals too
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Mar 18, 2022 18:20
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KitConstantine posted:Russian-controlled airfield. At what point do we just start calling it a honeypot airport?
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Mar 18, 2022 18:22
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Theory I'm leaning towards is someone blew up an ammo dump and it went BIG KABOOM halifax style and different places heard it at different times. It's either this, donairs, or Barrett's Privateers! We have other things there, cripes!
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Mar 18, 2022 18:24
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That airport might just be their only option in the area from a logistics perspective and they consider the recurring losses acceptable, perhaps also working from an assumption that Mikolayev would fall soon, and the problem go away. Sunk cost always looks really dumb when the expected outcome fails to materialize, and is hard to notice if it materializes quickly.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:24
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nimby posted:At what point do we just start calling it a honeypot airport? That explains it They just set out a great big jar labeled HUNNY Bears love that poo poo
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Mar 18, 2022 18:26
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That explains it President Xi, nooooooooo
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Mar 18, 2022 18:27
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Boat Update! Russia moved a number of ships into the Mediterranean, likely because of the NATO exercises being conducted there now. It's not a useful place to support Ukraine operations https://twitter.com/KaptainLOMA/status/1504870610052255801?s=20&t=Ihzz46Ra2MlhEyb8G3D2-A Notes on firing missiles from the Med to Ukraine - they would have to fly through Turkish airspace which Turkey likely would not appreciate, so call it a no go. https://twitter.com/VXerikos/status/1504869416877576192?s=20&t=Ihzz46Ra2MlhEyb8G3D2-A Also Russians captured the port at Berdyansk a few days ago and are using it to ship in supplies. They control the sea so Ukraine can't disrupt this resupply method. https://twitter.com/KaptainLOMA/status/1504705493310357531?s=20&t=Ihzz46Ra2MlhEyb8G3D2-A The sea blockade is in full effect, with up to 300l ships prevented from leaving the sea of Azov by Russia. Many are commerical and some are carrying grain exports. https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1504802910357671936?s=20&t=Ihzz46Ra2MlhEyb8G3D2-A Article: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-russia-blocks-ships-carrying-grain-exports/a-61165985
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Mar 18, 2022 18:32
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KitConstantine posted:Hey remember that airport that Ukraine has already attacked at least twice, resulting in a bunch of helicopters getting damaged? There was a quote by a Ukranian soldier in combat talking to a reporter: "We are very lucky that they are so loving stupid".
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Mar 18, 2022 18:32
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nimby posted:At what point do we just start calling it a honeypot airport? That would be a honeyport.
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Mar 18, 2022 18:34
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Aertuun posted:In a thread where people spent two pages explaining that you can still get wet even if you're on a boat , posts like this are the occasional gem. Fascinating post, thank you! Look I still don’t understand how you get wet on a boat unless it was raining or something. I feel like if you’re getting wet on a boat then your boat isn’t doing it’s job. Unless you’re talking about like kayaks or something but that’s a different story compared to an actual modern day boat that a military would use. Like when I’m on an airplane I’m not exposed to the outside environment at 30k feet up, I don’t understand why I would be exposed to the sea when I’m on a boat at sea level. Despite what my avatar says I’ve never been on a boat. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 18, 2022 18:39
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Look the Russian army is all about upward mobility these days Someone's going to make it from private to general in record time.
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