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Yeah probably pilot suicide (or something else) because there is no gliding you'd get with an engine out, it is just an instantaneous nosedive. https://mobile.twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1505841208656023555
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Mar 21, 2022 13:57
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Could be a failure of flight controls, then they're diving under power without authority to recover.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:02
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NightGyr posted:Could be a failure of flight controls, then they're diving under power without authority to recover. Unless it both severed all hydraulic lines and the controls got stuck in an unfavorable position the throttle should still let you pitch up by increasing throttle while you radio. 2.5 minutes to death is very sus.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:05
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Going to guess busted jackscrew.
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Mar 21, 2022 14:11
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Going to guess busted jackscrew. https://twitter.com/jobottomley/status/1505855821430853632?s=21 Getting that Alaska airlines md-80 vibes… https://twitter.com/derekzappia/status/1505870950725693444?s=21 If accurate data they regained control briefly, though the g forces from dive to climb might’ve been what did the tail in. hobbesmaster fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 14:33
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I believe there were two previous Boeing 737 in 2018 and 2019 that had separate issues that resulted in a nosedive crashes. One mechanical and one software. Those occurred fairly early into the flights. Seems strange to be at cruising altitude for so long and suddenly have unrecoverable catastrophic failure suddenly occur. What a terrible tragedy.hobbesmaster posted:https://twitter.com/jobottomley/status/1505855821430853632?s=21 Wouldn't plummeting to the Earth also cause plane deterioration? e: You edited before I edited. Great. CmdrRiker fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Mar 21, 2022 |
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Mar 21, 2022 14:36
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Will we get a good investigation out of China, or are they going to bulldoze the wreckage into a convenient hole and claim that rainbows or perfidious Americans caused it?
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Mar 21, 2022 14:55
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MrYenko posted:Will we get a good investigation out of China, or are they going to bulldoze the wreckage into a convenient hole and claim that rainbows or perfidious Americans caused it? probably depends on some external factors like who owns the airline, who was on the plane, who the pilots were, etc.
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Mar 21, 2022 15:05
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They confirmed that it occurred so we're on the right track so far!
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Mar 21, 2022 15:16
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:probably depends on some external factors like who owns the airline, who was on the plane, who the pilots were, etc. This. I would rate it as unlikely that we get a full NTSB-style read out on what happened. It will also be interesting if they ask Boeing to send folks to help.
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Mar 21, 2022 15:23
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Something interesting re: the An-225. A former Mriya pilot (and this is a little confusing, their last name is Antonov) is claiming that NATO advised Antonov to get all of its airframes out of Ukraine, inviting them to stay at Leipzig, Germany. This makes sense as Antonov has a facility there where they act as a reserve heavy lift for NATO. https://simpleflying.com/an-225-destruction-blame/ There's no answer as to why they didn't.
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Mar 21, 2022 15:50
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Beef Of Ages posted:This. I would rate it as unlikely that we get a full NTSB-style read out on what happened. It will also be interesting if they ask Boeing to send folks to help. For what it’s worth since the airplane is American-built, the NTSB can participate in the investigation. Whether China lets them, we’ll see.
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Mar 21, 2022 16:03
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CmdrRiker posted:I believe there were two previous Boeing 737 in 2018 and 2019 that had separate issues that resulted in a nosedive crashes. One mechanical and one software. Those occurred fairly early into the flights. Seems strange to be at cruising altitude for so long and suddenly have unrecoverable catastrophic failure suddenly occur. What a terrible tragedy. those were MAXes not NGs like this plane
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Mar 21, 2022 17:27
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MrYenko posted:Will we get a good investigation out of China, or are they going to bulldoze the wreckage into a convenient hole and claim that rainbows or perfidious Americans caused it? Is there any precedent for this, or are you just being xenophobic for no reason?
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Mar 21, 2022 17:34
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Nebakenezzer posted:Something interesting re: the An-225. A former Mriya pilot (and this is a little confusing, their last name is Antonov) is claiming that NATO advised Antonov to get all of its airframes out of Ukraine, inviting them to stay at Leipzig, Germany. This makes sense as Antonov has a facility there where they act as a reserve heavy lift for NATO. The An-225 that was destroyed was in the middle of some heavy maintenance and had at least one engine disassembled. It wasn't ready to move. The other airframe was never finished, and how are you gonna move that?
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Mar 21, 2022 17:44
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NightGyr posted:The An-225 that was destroyed was in the middle of some heavy maintenance and had at least one engine disassembled. It wasn't ready to move. The other airframe was never finished, and how are you gonna move that? You put it in an An-225 and then move it. Oh wait, poo poo.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:50
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The smoking gun would be to know if there were mayday calls prior to the end of the flight. I don't know if ATC radio is a thing you're allowed to listen to in China.
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Mar 21, 2022 17:58
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Warbird posted:Christ. What are odds of a catastrophic stall when you’re already at cruising altitude? I assume this may have been a deliberate act? Maybe but planes have been put into crazy nose dives by mistakes, especially when in clouds like that. Thinking of Atlas Air 3591 as a strong example, but there are others too I think
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Mar 21, 2022 18:15
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Nebakenezzer posted:Something interesting re: the An-225. A former Mriya pilot (and this is a little confusing, their last name is Antonov) is claiming that NATO advised Antonov to get all of its airframes out of Ukraine, inviting them to stay at Leipzig, Germany. This makes sense as Antonov has a facility there where they act as a reserve heavy lift for NATO. It was undergoing a heavy maintenance check and a couple of engines were off the airframe, by the time they could've restored it to flight status it was too late.
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Mar 21, 2022 18:30
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https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1505957365971144709?s=20&t=3ZjlPUIh7zv2TAQLbJ88rA
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Mar 21, 2022 18:36
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The cock and balls are what really makes it A++.
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Mar 21, 2022 19:48
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FrozenVent posted:For what it’s worth since the airplane is American-built, the NTSB can participate in the investigation. Whether China lets them, we’ll see. NTSB announced they assigned an investigator, but yeah, we'll see what China permits them to do. Folks who enjoy head fashions maid of tin foil tend to use that as a barometer of whether or not foul play was involved so I'm sure the A.Nutters will be all spun up for a while.
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Mar 21, 2022 20:25
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`Nemesis posted:https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1505957365971144709?s=20&t=3ZjlPUIh7zv2TAQLbJ88rA should have done it closer to that town that looks like its name could be pronounced "Chode-sies"
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Mar 21, 2022 20:37
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NightGyr posted:The other airframe was never finished, and how are you gonna move that? Strap on a Buran and use its engines for power.
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Mar 22, 2022 04:12
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Flight of the Phoenix it and combine the two airframes into one flyable aircraft
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Mar 22, 2022 05:44
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I realize I'm commenting on something I probably don't understand, but...the Kinzhal missile doesn't make sense to me. Ok, so it's an Iskander, but airlaunched. So what's the benefit? Is it added range? Obviously the MiG-31 has that, it was designed for the PVO as an interceptor. But then you're reducing your interceptor inventory to use them as single shot cruise missile launchers.
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Mar 22, 2022 15:12
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The Iskander can shoot things if they're 500kms from a point where you can drive a truck and set up a TEL. The Kinzal can shoot things if they're 2000 km from where you can fly a plane. That's a big capability difference.
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Mar 22, 2022 15:28
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Also, interceptors are designed to shoot down bombers. If you don't have enemy bombers to shoot down, your interceptors are just sitting on the ground doing nothing. Might as well try to use them as interdictors by strapping on a couple of cruise missiles.
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Mar 22, 2022 17:45
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:I realize I'm commenting on something I probably don't understand, but...the Kinzhal missile doesn't make sense to me. Think of how much fuel the rocket needs to burn to get to optimal altitude/speed and then cruise to its target. If air lunched from its optimal altitude and at mach speed, that fuel can now be used solely for cruise.
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Mar 22, 2022 17:51
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Animal posted:Think of how much fuel the rocket needs to burn to get to optimal altitude/speed and then cruise to its target. If air lunched from its optimal altitude and at mach speed, that fuel can now be used solely for cruise. This is a much bigger relative boost for missiles than spacecraft, which is why air launch for space launches usually isn't worth the limitations on booster size. In the extreme case on the other end, you've got glide bombs like the GBU-15 that get all of their energy from the launching vehicle and can still hit targets from tens of miles away.
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Mar 22, 2022 17:58
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In the DCS F/A-18 (and presumably in the real one too!), when you have a JDAM or JSOW equipped, there is a little graphic on the HSI that shows you your bomb's effective range in real time with a circle that gets bigger and smaller. When you gain some altitude, the bomb's range increases and the circle gets a little bit larger. If you keep the same altitude but accelerate to higher speed, the bomb's range goes up much more dramatically, because its available energy increases with the square of velocity. If you accelerate to like Mach 1 and then pull up into a 3G climb, the bomb's range instantly doubles as you prepare to lob it upwards like a softball. P cool
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Mar 22, 2022 18:06
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https://i.imgur.com/OAcmte1.mp4
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Mar 22, 2022 19:20
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If you thought lofted bombing was crazy, check out over the shoulder. 
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Mar 22, 2022 19:28
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Sagebrush posted:In the DCS F/A-18 (and presumably in the real one too!), when you have a JDAM or JSOW equipped, there is a little graphic on the HSI that shows you your bomb's effective range in real time with a circle that gets bigger and smaller. No one seems to talk about how awesome toss bombing must be IRL with modern GPS and laser guided PGMs.
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Mar 22, 2022 19:53
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NightGyr posted:If you thought lofted bombing was crazy, check out over the shoulder. And that's in a jet-powered aircraft. As a placeholder capability to prove the Navy could bomb poo poo too, they tried selling an AD-4B with a Mk7 slung underneath as a viable delivery asset, using the same maneuver: http://www.joebaugher.com/usattack/newa1_16.html Later models of the bomb incorporated a rocket motor.
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Mar 22, 2022 20:06
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NightGyr posted:If you thought lofted bombing was crazy, check out over the shoulder. They practiced this maneuver with B-47s until it started cracking the wing spars
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Mar 22, 2022 20:31
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BIG HEADLINE posted:And that's in a jet-powered aircraft. As a placeholder capability to prove the Navy could bomb poo poo too, they tried selling an AD-4B with a Mk7 slung underneath as a viable delivery asset, using the same maneuver: http://www.joebaugher.com/usattack/newa1_16.html Always nice to see the branches behaving like kids who can't share their toys.
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Mar 22, 2022 20:56
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It's interesting that in the second video of the Chinese 737 crash, you still can't see the wings (or tail). It's obviously likely a coincidence, perhaps both cameras just caught it edge on, however the angle is different, with the first video having the plane almost vertical and the second with quite a bit more angle. Wouldn't you expect to see some wing in one or the other? Could also be distance not catching enough information too. https://twitter.com/ChinaAvReview/status/1505856305495351296?s=20&t=8Oo-gGorRMMl_M6CReXIPQ
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Mar 22, 2022 21:38
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...and the crash site looks about like what you'd expect. The drone footage has the best look. Jesus. https://twitter.com/ChinaAvReview/status/1505880143616954376?s=20&t=8Oo-gGorRMMl_M6CReXIPQ
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Mar 22, 2022 21:41
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MrYenko posted:No one seems to talk about how awesome toss bombing must be IRL with modern GPS and laser guided PGMs. In DCS at least it is pretty awesome. You program the coordinates on the ground, and the plane gives you a steerpoint to head towards. When you're heading the right direction it pops up a circle around the target on the HSI. The circle's size changes as described above depending on the energy the bomb will have on release. You get near the edge of the circle, yank up into a climb, and as soon as the circle expands around your plane, let the bomb go and it does all the rest itself. (At least until DCS's terrible physics engine catches up and makes the thing fall short even though you were totally in range). I haven't played DCS since Ukraine was invaded, though. It somehow doesn't feel as fun anymore.
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Mar 22, 2022 21:56
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