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Owling Howl posted:So it appears 50-70k IT specialists have left Russia so far and they're predicting another 70-100k will leave in April. Among other things the Russian Duma is discussing exemption from conscription to keep them around... So much effort spend to build up a domestic IT industry. People working their rear end off. And then these delusional ghouls in power just piss people's life accomplishments away to play out some cheap power fantasies.
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Mar 22, 2022 21:53
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Michael Weiss interviewed former Russian Foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev and it provides an interesting perspective on the war and on Russia. Kozyrev is on twitter, by the way https://twitter.com/MoniqueCamarra/status/1506363415924817921?s=20&t=O1pfV5dLlHUDWzgfcDLfwQ Article: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/russias-ex-foreign-minister-on-his-totalitarian-country/ Excerpts: quote:“I think what prompted Putin and his inner circle,” Kozyrev tells me, “is that they see this is really a crucial moment, a tipping point for Europe and the world. Despite certain deviations in, say, Hungary and Turkey, there has been a general movement toward more democracy and openness. This terrifies Putin.” quote:“One thing among many I admire about the American character is your ability to look into what you did and to be very, very critical of your mistakes,” Kozyrev says, in what I’m right to assume is a slightly philosophical preliminary to an incoming polemic. “Like when Congress unanimously passed a ban on any kind of lynching. It’s a little late, but it’s important because it’s a form of national repentance. That’s what Russia doesn’t do. Russia doesn’t repent. It hasn’t really for Stalinism or for cutting a deal with Hitler. Instead, it blames Ukraine for Nazism, which is ridiculous.” quote:“The very idea that NATO was the source of trouble is based on the old Soviet enemy image of it, an image which never changed and is now exploited by all the old customers from the KGB.” The whole thing is definitely worth a read. Though with awareness of Kozyrev's history and biases.
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Mar 22, 2022 21:57
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Chalks posted:But then the sanctions just continue forever. I think your prediction is accurate, but I don't think it will end there because at some point Russia is going to need to make some big concessions to make the sanctions go away. I'm not sure that A: Russia can pay amounts sufficient to really recover Ukraine's war devastation without B: Breaking the Russian bank which even if the sanctions were lifted immediately has been thrown for a hell of a loop with recent events and which won't recover immediately, nor that C: The Ukrainians will have much faith that Russia will actually pay the reparations on time and in full, especially if Putin is still in charge. That being said I'll admit I'm going by gut feeling, though - if somebody has any kind of read of how expensive it really would be to rebuild, say, Mariupol from what we've seen, and whether the Russians could afford to pay that and still have a functioning economy, that would be grand.
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Mar 22, 2022 21:58
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Owling Howl posted:So it appears 50-70k IT specialists have left Russia so far and they're predicting another 70-100k will leave in April. Among other things the Russian Duma is discussing exemption from conscription to keep them around... Trouble is that while IT workers have fair english language skills, every decent english firm will consider Russian workers to be a security risk regardless of political orientation. It's a bad deal really. SlowBloke fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 21:59
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Chalks posted:Does that affect Russia's ability to estimate how many have left? If you lie about your degree do you even appear in their stats? Maybe? Hard to tell. Regardless, Kamil recommends that if the west wants to go all-out on economic warfare, it should be convincing countries ("somewhere warm" I think is what he said), to advertise fast-track visas for Russian STEM workers to convince ones with cold feet to make the jump.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:02
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SlowBloke posted:Trouble is that while IT workers have fair english language skills, every decent firm will consider Russian workers to be a security risk regardless of political orientation. It's a bad deal really. Speaking as someone who worked with Russian & Russian-educated tech coworkers in multiple european tech companies, including multinationals: nah. Well maybe a little bit, but it won't be that much. Probably won't be able to get security clearance though.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:03
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KitConstantine posted:Michael Weiss interviewed former Russian Foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev and it provides an interesting perspective on the war and on Russia. Kozyrev is on twitter, by the way Yeah, I find myself saying, "Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?" Kozyrev is one of the big names inextricably tied to the dark days of the 90s for Russia, and this reads like he's desperately covering his rear end here. There are some really piping hot takes in this: quote:“One thing among many I admire about the American character is your ability to look into what you did and to be very, very critical of your mistakes,” Kozyrev says, in what I’m right to assume is a slightly philosophical preliminary to an incoming polemic. “Like when Congress unanimously passed a ban on any kind of lynching. It’s a little late, but it’s important because it’s a form of national repentance...” Really? Is our government actually known for looking into its own mistakes and learning from them? I'm not so sure of that. quote:"This argument about NATO is just propaganda fed to Americans who then regurgitate it in their opinion and journal essays. The only real analysts who come here from Russia are dissidents. The rest are front people, just like in the Soviet Union, and they manufacture Western champions of the Putin regime, chumps and useful idiots.” That's a hell of a claim, IMO. Was George Kennan a Russian frontman? Was William Burns, the current CIA Director, spouting Kremlin propaganda when he advised against NATO expansion?
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Mar 22, 2022 22:04
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SlowBloke posted:Trouble is that while IT workers have fair english language skills, every decent english firm will consider Russian workers to be a security risk regardless of political orientation. It's a bad deal really. I think corporate America will gladly hire anybody they can without caring that much and then just act surprised if something goes wrong. Majorian posted:Really? Is our government actually known for looking into its own mistakes and learning from them? I'm not so sure of that. When I read this piece, I think it was more of a comparative point than saying the US was objectively good at it.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:05
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Private Speech posted:Speaking as someone who worked with Russian & Russian-educated tech coworkers in multiple european tech companies, including multinationals: nah. I feel like standards for employment are going to change, buying huawei kit wasn't an issue years ago and now it will make you fail audits for any government related work.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:06
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Private Speech posted:Speaking as someone who worked with Russian & Russian-educated tech coworkers in multiple european tech companies, including multinationals: nah. same. russians are well known in the anglo-speaking software world as being good contractors. all the big software multinationals have experience working with russian firms or directly employing russian nationals, and are not under any current illusions about why exactly a bunch of russian coders may be leaving the country in Q1 2022
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Mar 22, 2022 22:07
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Owling Howl posted:So it appears 50-70k IT specialists have left Russia so far and they're predicting another 70-100k will leave in April. Among other things the Russian Duma is discussing exemption from conscription to keep them around... A lot of people taking the train from St.Petersburg to Helsinki, then a commuter train to the Vantaa airport and then flying to who-knowns-where. Not really surprised, a lot of the IT people I know know someone in the Russian IT sector who has run already or is trying to.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:07
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Majorian posted:
Compared to Russia every country save for maybe China is a shining example of self-introspection. You wouldn't get even the timid "we tortured some folks" from the current crop of Russian leadership.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:08
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Tomn posted:I'm not sure that A: Russia can pay amounts sufficient to really recover Ukraine's war devastation without B: Breaking the Russian bank which even if the sanctions were lifted immediately has been thrown for a hell of a loop with recent events and which won't recover immediately, nor that C: The Ukrainians will have much faith that Russia will actually pay the reparations on time and in full, especially if Putin is still in charge. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if you see the reparations added into Russian imports and exports when/if this ends and Russia attempts to normalize. It would be hard for them to get around if they were trading with the West and be guaranteed money going straight to Ukraine. Granted I am not a economist so I have no idea how difficult that would be to actually enact in real life.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:09
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Just Another Lurker posted:Convert everything to Kilojoules to avoid confusion. European labels also have kJ listed next to kcal.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:09
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SlowBloke posted:Trouble is that while IT workers have fair english language skills, every decent english firm will consider Russian workers to be a security risk regardless of political orientation. It's a bad deal really. Tons of companies in the EU will happily hire them. Everything from finance to major development houses has tons of Russian and Chinese citizens employed. Which makes sense - a spy (industrial or otherwise) could be of any nationality, including the local one. There's no point in trying to keep out spies by having berufsverbot based on nationality - there are a few thing which require citizenship, clean criminal record and/or other such things, but in general you can get hired, if you can code. Even if you look like a mujahedeen or came straight out of some PLA university. It's one sector where the labor shortage is so dire that discrimination is almost non-existent.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I understood the joke, don’t worry about that - it was decent enough, if anything. I think NEXTA in principle should be discouraged from being brought up, since it’s like Russian the Independent at this point - yes, news, but with very bad signal-to-noise ratio, and some cheap headline sniping. Yeah i'm absolutely not saying people shouldn't post them, just a big tweet dump of them absolutely should be paired with a 'extremely speculative until verified elsewhere' as all 3 of those are quite explicitly doing primarily PR as opposed to journalism. Or at least nexta's journalism is very often uncritical reporting of, like, any old telegram or twitter rumor. Ilia is a journalist, but his twitter output is unambiguously 90% stuff given to him directly by Ukrainian MoD. additionally a bunch of those accounts will report on what the other says and repeatedly amplify poo poo like that until it becomes legitimized as 'many reports' when the origin was just some entirely undependable account making an unsourced tweet or reposting some telegram rumor. For a lot of the stuff they post it's useful to try to figure out if anyone else at all (outside of twitter) are saying or reporting the same things
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Mar 22, 2022 22:13
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Here's a Chernihiv update from a public figure Ludimila Denisova: Ukrainian: quote:⚡Місто Чернігів на межі можливостей для виживання. English quote:The city of Chernihiv is on the verge of survival. I can't tell if it was translated either by her, her team, or machine. Grim.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:16
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Odesa's official telegram channel, in case anyone wants a peak at what that looks like. Одеса. Офіційно Новини та офіційні коментарі співробітників структурних підрозділів Одеської міської ради. https://t.me/odesacityofficial There's no machine translation feature on tele that I'm aware of, so you'll have to copy/paste into Google translate if you can't read it.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:17
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Tomn posted:That being said I'll admit I'm going by gut feeling, though - if somebody has any kind of read of how expensive it really would be to rebuild, say, Mariupol from what we've seen, and whether the Russians could afford to pay that and still have a functioning economy, that would be grand. A functioning Russian state could afford a hell of a lot. However, I suspect their immediate problem, in the event they lose so bad reparations are even considered, will be trying to avoid balkanising into a bunch of new states desperate to wash themselves of the Russian Federation stink and join NATO before Moscow can get it's act together again. So whilst they COULD afford a massive reconstruction, reparation, truth and reconciliation effort, they never would. It'll all go immediately into the trash as they pour all available resources into the state security apparatus, continuing to arrest, suicide, and disappear anyone who has a moderately good idea until we're back here again in 20 or 30 years. Often Abbreviated fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 22:17
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Pavlov posted:If @kamilkazani is to be believed this is the same account that published a godawful explainer thread about how russian airmobile troops were doctrinally interior security or whatever, which credulous goons kept posting for days
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Mar 22, 2022 22:19
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Boris Galerkin posted:European labels also have kJ listed next to kcal. I'm young enough to have just avoided having to use pounds, shillings and pence for coinage but everything else has been a confused mess of multiple measurements throughout my entire life. 
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Mar 22, 2022 22:19
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Reiterpallasch posted:this is the same account that published a godawful explainer thread about how russian airmobile troops were doctrinally interior security or whatever, which credulous goons kept posting for days Was their a problem with their take? I don't know much about the VDV otherwise.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:22
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spacetoaster posted:I believe the Ukrainian military has too much going on to think about going on the offensive in Russia. Is this meant to say Crimea is in Russia? It’s part of Ukraine, actually.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:22
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Boris Galerkin posted:European labels also have kJ listed next to kcal. It's because calories are actually not SI/metric units and the packaging has to be metric. We like to poo poo on Americans for clinging to their weird, arcane and confusing units but we have our own skeletons in the closet too 
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Mar 22, 2022 22:27
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Pavlov posted:Was their a problem with their take? I don't know much about the VDV otherwise. tons? like there's factual bloopers that people were explaining every time the thread got reposted but the eye-popping thing was the assertion that since they haven't jumped out of an airplane in decades they're somehow not combat infantry, drawing an "unbroken" line from their use controlling unrest in soviet satellites in the 50s and 60s to today while totally ignoring the 800-pound gorilla in the room that was the occupation of afghanistan. i have no idea if the guy is an expert in the demographics of russian technical colleges because i'm sure not one either, but he 100% was not an expert on the soviet military or airmobile troops in general and was setting up a big twitter thread like he was.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:28
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Glimm posted:Is this meant to say Crimea is in Russia? It’s part of Ukraine, actually. I think the point they're making is that Ukraine probably isn't going to be able to exert any meaningful control over the region anytime soon.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:29
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Pavlov posted:Was their a problem with their take? I don't know much about the VDV otherwise. They wrote a really dumb take how airborne assault infantry is akshualli riot police. They’ve also written a fair amount of other stupid poo poo, like a thread about Moscow that used a photo of Paris. It’s not an account that I recommend reading carelessly. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 22:33
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Owling Howl posted:So it appears 50-70k IT specialists have left Russia so far and they're predicting another 70-100k will leave in April. Among other things the Russian Duma is discussing exemption from conscription to keep them around... My company has offered relocation to the EU to all of our 500+ developers in St. Petersburg. I really wondered if they're even able to leave Russia, I mean a few people from the same company leaving probably won't be noticed, but a few dozen or a couple of hundreds might raise a few eyebrows. And I wonder if they ever will be able to go back. 😞
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Mar 22, 2022 22:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They wrote a really dumb take how airborne assault infantry is akshualli riot police. They’ve also written a fair amount of other stupid poo poo, like an thread about Moscow that used a photo of Paris. It’s not an account that I recommend reading carelessly. Ok, I will take with a grain of salt then.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:35
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Grouchio posted:It would take a significant amount of stalemating over multiple months methinks to get Zelensky accepting that. Zelensky already sort of offered that in the first negotiations. No-one sane actually thinks Ukraine is keeping Crimea, without a total Russian domestic collapse. Putin needs to bring home a victory, and trading Crimea and a whole bunch of symbolic stuff is the most feasible way to offer him that. Tomn posted:I'm not sure that A: Russia can pay amounts sufficient to really recover Ukraine's war devastation without B: Breaking the Russian bank which even if the sanctions were lifted immediately has been thrown for a hell of a loop with recent events and which won't recover immediately, nor that C: The Ukrainians will have much faith that Russia will actually pay the reparations on time and in full, especially if Putin is still in charge. Luckily there's currently something like $300B worth of Russian state assets that have been frozen by the west but not technically seized. Any actual peace deal will not be bilateral. (Which is the first way you can tell that the current negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are not actually going anywhere yet.) There will be representatives for USA, NATO and EU sitting in the same table with those of Russia and Ukraine, simply because some of the things that both parties want (end of sanctions for Russia, some kind of independence guarantee by the west for Ukraine) depend on co-operation from the west. The closest way I see this coming to an end is a negotiated peace, where first there is an immediate cease-fire and withdrawal to pre-war boundaries, and then there is a referendum for a constitutional amendment in Ukraine, which packages the admission of loss of Crimea, language policy changes, and some kind of minority protection language into a single deal, and if that passes then Russia pays Ukraine a cool few hundred billion, which doesn't actually come from Russia but from the frozen central bank assets. What happens to LNDR depends mostly on how eager Russia and Ukraine are to end the war. If Ukraine wants out more, they might get absorbed into Russia at the oblast boundaries. If Russia wants out, they might be returned to Ukraine when Crimea is handed over. It's entirely possible for Putin to spin either outcome as a victory, so long as the language law is repealed and some minority protection provisions are added. Those are not an issue Zelensky would oppose, because frankly, they would likely be required for EU entry anyway. Tuna-Fish fucked around with this message at 22:38 on Mar 22, 2022 |
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Mar 22, 2022 22:36
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I was wondering about NATO weapons stockpiles the other day: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/22/uk-anti-tank-weapons-defence-secretary-russian-hoax-call quote:The UK is running out of anti-tank weapons to send to Ukraine, the defence secretary appeared to tell Russian impostors posing as the Ukrainian prime minister, according to the latest video released by the pair.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:37
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EscapeHere posted:As far as I know they're still regularly calling Putin to try and discuss ceasefires when it's pretty clear Russia have no real interest in negotiating in good faith at this point. I'm not sure what this is achieving other than publicly reinforcing that they have absolutely no sway or influence over Putin (which for Macron I don't see how is beneficial in an election year). Speaking of ineffectual calls https://twitter.com/EuropeanPravda/status/1506375700558843904?t=IwxNHtSeeeBJGqtdxnaNxA&s=19 Tweet text: Macron spoke with Putin for an hour, unable to agree on a ceasefire quote:This is Macron's eighth telephone conversation with the Russian leader since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:37
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KitConstantine posted:Michael Weiss interviewed former Russian Foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev and it provides an interesting perspective on the war and on Russia. Kozyrev is on twitter, by the way Some of that's true but let's not pretend that NATO is anything else to the russian public than "the terrorists" were to americans post 9/11. Even people like Gorbachev who protested nato expansion in the 90's did not view it as a security threat but more of a bad faith attempt to encircle russia in a moment of weakness and excarbate cold war tensions. Putin is a Pan-Slavinist, he does not really care much about NATO and is more interested in some sort of Russian lead coalition of slavic states. This whole Ukraine issue is mainly about preventing a pivot to the EU, less so about NATO.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:38
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of ineffectual calls He just sets down the receiver and does something else till the noise stops.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:40
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Majorian posted:I think the point they're making is that Ukraine probably isn't going to be able to exert any meaningful control over the region anytime soon. That makes sense and is, unfortunately, true.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:43
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Pavlov posted:I don't know much about the VDV otherwise. https://i.imgur.com/SAOYfcH.mp4
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Mar 22, 2022 22:44
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Why do you need ground support when your dead before you are within 50 ft of the ground
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Mar 22, 2022 22:47
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Zephro posted:I was wondering about NATO weapons stockpiles the other day: I suspect at this point Ukraine is going to run out of targets before it runs out of missiles.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:48
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of ineffectual calls Yeah. I don't know whether Macron actually, genuinely believes he can negotiate something (he can't), or whether he does it purely for domestic audiences to make it look like he's trying diplomacy.
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Mar 22, 2022 22:51
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ummel posted:Odesa's official telegram channel, in case anyone wants a peak at what that looks like. In chrome you can just right click anywhere on any page and hit "Translate" and it'll translate the whole thing. No copy/paste needed.
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