|
Cimber posted:Yeah, I would go with a 'courageously not losing right now' rather than 'winning'. I think it's important to differentiate between winning and won, the latter being a definitive outcome (hence the past/perfect tense), and the former implying a current state. Has Ukraine won? No, but they have tipped the scales militarily (for the moment) and are definitely winning the political game.
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 14:34
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 11:36 |
|
|
psydude posted:He's kind of vague, but he's likely referring to pre-positioned stockpiles from the Western and Southern Military Districts. Theater doesn't necessarily mean a specific country, but rather a broad geographic area which represents the operational demarcation point for combat operations and support. In that case, it would include Western Russia and Belarus. Ah, OK, so there might still be supplies flowing over the Russian/Ukrainian border. But still, the lines about “no new supplies coming in” suggest that they’re operating entirely from said pre-positioned stockpiles, right? If those stockpiles run out, how complex an operation would it be to establish new stocks? How much time would it take, and how much of a constant flow of supplies to the front would there be while things are being gathered? Would it be possible and would it make sense to, for instance, just crack open a warehouse full of MREs in Siberia and ship them straight to the Ukrainian frontline as fast as you can load them on a train?
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 14:53
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Ah, OK, so there might still be supplies flowing over the Russian/Ukrainian border. But still, the lines about “no new supplies coming in” suggest that they’re operating entirely from said pre-positioned stockpiles, right? If those stockpiles run out, how complex an operation would it be to establish new stocks? How much time would it take, and how much of a constant flow of supplies to the front would there be while things are being gathered? Would it be possible and would it make sense to, for instance, just crack open a warehouse full of MREs in Siberia and ship them straight to the Ukrainian frontline as fast as you can load them on a train? Well, to give you an idea, Russia had been moving equipment into position for this invasion for about a year. The pace picked up rapidly last fall, and some was no-doubt already forward staged since 2014, but it should give some indication of the timescales required. They'll have an easier time shipping stuff like food, which has a less complex supply chain than spare parts, for example. Other stuff, like medical supplies, may have a very short shelf life and become difficult to sustain over a protracted period of time. Even the US military had to deal with this: in Afghanistan, the blood supply for the Combat Support Hospital on our FOB was us.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:01
|
|
|
Torrannor posted:That would explain a lot. Especially the competing for resources part. Dang, trying to think of another war where armies lacked central planning and would steal resources from each other. I’d guess WWII Japan, where their army and navy feuded and would often refuse to support each other? Wonder if post-war we’ll learn Russian armies mostly fighting in cities were hoarding bridging equipment and armies in rural areas with lots of river crossings took all the door breaching supplies.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:05
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1506623757447749640?s=21 So... I can give them.worthless paper and they give me oil? I fail to see a downside
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:06
|
|
|
M_Gargantua posted:So... I can give them.worthless paper and they give me oil? The only thing I can think of is that to pay them in rubles, Western clients will have to buy said rubles using actual currency that has value, from Russia. Then again I assume you could buy rubles from other banks to that aren’t actually connected to Russia, right?
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:08
|
|
|
M_Gargantua posted:So... I can give them.worthless paper and they give me oil? My understanding is you'd have to buy the Rubles from someone, and the only place likely to have enough for the scale of the payments involved would be the Russian banking system. Which means you'd have to connect an account to their system, accept their exchange rate, and give them real money for their Monopoly money. Not ideal. So it's a bit of a brinksmanship moment - demanding payment in rubles doesn't match the contract terms so the buyers could say 'take my dollars/euros or you get nothing' and see who blinks
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:09
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:My understanding is you'd have to buy the Rubles from someone, and the only place likely to have enough for the scale of the payments involved would be the Russian banking system. Which means you'd have to connect an account to their system, accept their exchange rate, and give them real money for their Monopoly money. Not ideal. Yeah, it seems like a half assed method to get access to foreign currency…hopefully it has the effect of allowing for the total energy bans in Europe.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:11
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Contrary to what you've just seen, war is neither glamorous nor fun. There are no winners, only losers. There are no good wars, with the following exceptions: the American Revolution, World War II, and the Star Wars Trilogy. Civil War I'd argue was a good war, at least for the Union and for Ending Slavery. (yeah yeah I know it didn't really end it entirely, but certainly killed the majority portion that was slavery) M_Gargantua posted:So... I can give them.worthless paper and they give me oil? It does prop up the value of the Ruble, which is what Putin is trying to do: Offset the economic hit of sanctions by turning the Ruble into a petrodollar. Honestly, I suspect if push came to shove, the EU would tell Putin: "Either you take the euro or we stop buying" and Russia would likely shutup and take the Euro. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Mar 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:12
|
|
|
I'm all for not getting Russian gas but the unfortunate fact is that Europe does not have the capability to quickly wean itself off of that supply; it was a foreseen problem that politicians didn't want to admit because it was cheap. That said at least this isn't happening in the middle of winter when people would freeze to death as a result of insufficient natural gas so maybe there is a way through.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:14
|
|
|
I agree with the sentiment that Ukraine appears to be winning at the moment, but only extremely tentatively. It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks if they can effect meaningful reversals on the invaders that would undeniably confirm the magnitude of Russia's command and logistic failures.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:19
|
|
|
psydude posted:Well, to give you an idea, Russia had been moving equipment into position for this invasion for about a year. The pace picked up rapidly last fall, and some was no-doubt already forward staged since 2014, but it should give some indication of the timescales required. Ah, OK. So if the stockpiles run out, food, ammo and fuel can probably make it to the front in some quantity, but spare parts for maintenance and medical supplies for casualties will be more limited? Which I guess would imply that the Russians could keep fighting at reduced efficiency, but will likely suffer higher rates of attrition from mechanical breakdowns and preventable deaths? And also that if any supply shortages are in sight, the Russians really should be dealing with that way in advance of any crunch otherwise things get interesting?
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:20
|
|
|
Mozi posted:I'm all for not getting Russian gas but the unfortunate fact is that Europe does not have the capability to quickly wean itself off of that supply; it was a foreseen problem that politicians didn't want to admit because it was cheap. That said at least this isn't happening in the middle of winter when people would freeze to death as a result of insufficient natural gas so maybe there is a way through. I'm wondering if Germany could restart the 3 nuclear plants it just shut. The Greens would rather just burn more coal, but most of the coal here comes from Russia, and Germans hate admitting they were wrong, so I'm pretty sure my electric bill is just going to increase 600% instead. Tomn posted:Ah, OK. So if the stockpiles run out, food, ammo and fuel can probably make it to the front in some quantity, but spare parts for maintenance and medical supplies for casualties will be more limited? Which I guess would imply that the Russians could keep fighting at reduced efficiency, but will likely suffer higher rates of attrition from mechanical breakdowns and preventable deaths? The scenario you outlined has largely already come to pass, to be honest. They planned to fight a 3 day war, so they're already out of a lot of this stuff and having to scramble to make up for it. There's tons of equipment abandoned with mechanical issues, and some people suspect the decrease in Russian air activity is due to maintenance problems as much as them being cautious due to sustained losses. psydude fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Mar 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:23
|
|
|
Mozi posted:I'm all for not getting Russian gas but the unfortunate fact is that Europe does not have the capability to quickly wean itself off of that supply; it was a foreseen problem that politicians didn't want to admit because it was cheap. That said at least this isn't happening in the middle of winter when people would freeze to death as a result of insufficient natural gas so maybe there is a way through. Honestly this problem dates to Schroeder, being a paid agent, and more so Merkel destroying their energy independence, by doubling down against nuclear power, with all the science and logic behind her as an Anti-Vaxxer on Twitter does.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
Farking Bastage posted:Are you guys aware of/have an opinion of Beau of the fifth column? I'm not American but Beau is a very stable and articulate person, he's a good lad. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:25
|
|
|
psydude posted:I'm wondering if Germany could restart the 3 nuclear plants it just shut. The Greens would rather just burn more coal, but most of the coal here comes from Russia, and Germans hate admitting they were wrong, so I'm pretty sure my electric bill is just going to increase 600% instead. The 3 most recent ones, maybe, but others have had their cores poisoned with Boronic Acid, sadly.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:29
|
|
|
Just Another Lurker posted:I'm not American but Beau is a very stable and articulate person, he's a good lad. Is he? I’ve never watched his videos, but I recall something weird about him or his past I mean it’s pretty rich from someone posting on something awful to complain about a person possibly being weird, but I just wanted to know. I see him posted here and TFR a lot, so I figure they can’t be awful. https://youtu.be/4E-XwBe9mRM I’m always interested how Zelensky tailors his message to different countries.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:29
|
|
|
Farking Bastage posted:Are you guys aware of/have an opinion of Beau of the fifth column? he's a convicted human trafficker which is why he doesn't have any guns in his videos but yeah other than that cool dude!
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:I agree with the sentiment that Ukraine appears to be winning at the moment, but only extremely tentatively. It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks if they can effect meaningful reversals on the invaders that would undeniably confirm the magnitude of Russia's command and logistic failures. I think realistically in that Ukraine has "lost" because of the refugee situation and infrastructure damage, even if they'll have western funding to rebuild that's going to sting for a history book. On the other hand each day they prolong it Russia is "losing" extensively and eating poo poo and ruining their domestic economy in a way that will change global markets for the next generation
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
PookBear posted:he's a convicted human trafficker which is why he doesn't have any guns in his videos  I'm suddenly very curious about what on Earth the story is as I'd not heard about this.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:39
|
|
|
PookBear posted:he's a convicted human trafficker which is why he doesn't have any guns in his videos Ah I thought I had heard something about that, but it was domestic violence. Also in cue Fred Thompson clip news. So that’s not good. https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1506637258635501573?s=21
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:39
|
|
|
psydude posted:The scenario you outlined has largely already come to pass, to be honest. They planned to fight a 3 day war, so they're already out of a lot of this stuff and having to scramble to make up for it. There's tons of equipment abandoned with mechanical issues, and some people suspect the decrease in Russian air activity is due to maintenance problems as much as them being cautious due to sustained losses. If that’s the case, given that the DoD has been reporting for nearly a week that the Russians have been “considering” supply from outside the theater but haven’t actually started moving anything yet suggests a pretty strong degree of administrative chaos in the Kremlin, I’d guess. Which, duh, but interesting to see the other ways this might manifest.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:42
|
|
|
CRUSTY MINGE posted:There's been some discussion of his video, yes. Maybe within the last 10 pages. Farking Bastage posted:Are you guys aware of/have an opinion of Beau of the fifth column? Beau is weird. I like his outlook, seems aligned with my ideals. In 2015 he was arrested and convicted for human trafficking some workers to Palm Beach hotels. With 3 Russians. And got out early. And has been right about everything. There's also coded messages in his clothing and background items.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:45
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:Ah I thought I had heard something about that, but it was domestic violence. Is this because Poland kicked out a lot of russian diplomats today? It's a good way for the Belarus leader to show Putin that ''he's helping'' while not actually entering into actual combat. Beau: Well... that sucks, i really have to stop putting youtubers on pedestals.  edit: typing is hard Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Mar 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:48
|
|
|
To supply from outside of theater means they have to find those supplies first. And I would by no means be surprised to find that any strategic reserves of those supplies were in fact sold off in 2008 by whichever supply LT was responsible for inventorying then. If it's local supplies those turn over monthly and you can skim off the top, but anything deep enough to pull reserve from to support a war either requires meticulous bookkeeping and monitoring to check it's quality, or it is being slowly replaced with boxes of sawdust for lunch money.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:48
|
|
|
PookBear posted:he's a convicted human trafficker which is why he doesn't have any guns in his videos Wait, what? edit: holy shiiiiiii
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:48
|
|
|
Was it human trafficking people without a visa? I don't remember hearing of him sex trafficking.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:50
|
|
|
Cugel the Clever posted:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...hTBjGTM2nfA5VtR This pdf pops up first when you Google Justin King Human Trafficking. Some other iffy stuff in there too. To be clear I'm all in on Palestine and hating police too. The human trafficking violation is a human trafficking violation. If you think young woman being smuggled in to work at American resorts doesn't have a lack of consent problem that could lead to sexual assault I want a pair of those blinders. Soul Dentist fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Mar 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:50
|
|
|
Soul Dentist posted:https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...hTBjGTM2nfA5VtR Oh my, that pdf opens up to a very different and unpleasant world.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 15:56
|
|
|
M_Gargantua posted:Was it human trafficking people without a visa? I don't remember hearing of him sex trafficking. He helped immigrants get work visas
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:01
|
|
|
He's a job creator!
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:03
|
|
|
Russia breaking out the anime missiles. https://twitter.com/josephhdempsey/status/1506644494027997184?s=21
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:07
|
|
|
Wasabi the J posted:He helped immigrants get work visas https://www.justice.gov/archive/opa/pr/2007/December/07_crm_967.html "Justin King, 27, of Chipley, Fla., was convicted following a six-day jury trial in the Northern District of Florida in Pensacola of one count of conspiracy to commit visa fraud, five counts of visa fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit alien smuggling." PookBear fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Mar 23, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:11
|
|
|
Just Another Lurker posted:Oh my, that pdf opens up to a very different and unpleasant world. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:16
|
|
|
Also literally never trust anyone that can be referred to as an influencer
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:18
|
|
|
PookBear posted:https://www.justice.gov/archive/opa/pr/2007/December/07_crm_967.html
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 16:19
|
|
|
Cimber posted:When was the last time in modern history that an aggressor actually won their war of aggression? I assume you mean post WWI by "Modern".
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 17:09
|
|
|
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_history#Modern_history_(1500_to_the_present)
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 17:17
|
|
|
Yeah, pretty much. Aside from small border war style conflicts I can only think of the American Revolution, the franco-prussian war and maybe the us invasion of Iraq where the aggressor actually won the war.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 17:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 11:36 |
|
|
Maxim-um Overdrive.
|
|
#
?
Mar 23, 2022 17:20
|
|
