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Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

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Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Nice new thread OP!

Sorry in advance for the lengthy post. I've been summarizing PASC research studies for my own understanding and previously posted my notes in the old thread but thought worth posting here too in case it's of interest. Please let me know if you're aware of any large scale PASC study not included here, I'd be interested in learning more.

TLDR: long-term COVID impacts ie "long COVID" or "Post-Acute Sequelae of SARs-COV-2 infection" (PASC) affects ~10-30% of people with symptomatic infections. >1%-10% of COVID infections result in “significant” long term impacts, with large uncertainties in actual rates but these are likely lower bounds. Vaccines did not protect against all PASC conditions (estimates vary between 50% reduction to no protection).

PASC overview
-PASC encompasses a range of conditions that might occur after a COVID infection
-conditions include cardiovascular, neurological and immune disorders
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2021.698169/full
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/19/science/long-covid-causes.html
-PASC rate post-infection highly uncertain, estimates vary between 10%-30% at ~6 months
-the impact of potentially relevant factors like vaccination also have large uncertainties
-several large scale studies and labor force analyses attempt to evaluate PASC rate, severity
-PASC isn’t COVID mortality, mortality is better understood and effectively reduced with vaccines

PASC rate estimates from major studies
-focus here on PASC rates for mild cases in <65 year olds where possible
-ideally account for vaccination impact, most large completed studies done pre-vaccine

Post-acute symptoms, new onset diagnoses and health problems 6 to 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a nationwide questionnaire study in the adult Danish population
-large scale study, 152880 participants, evaluated at 6-12 months, pre-vaccine availability
-long-term symptoms maximal for 30-60 year old
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-~40% risk of physical exhaustion, 35% risk of mental exhaustion
-~28% chance of memory and concentration issues
-~8% fatigue

Long COVID in a prospective cohort of home-isolated patients
-followed 312 home-isolated (non-hospitalized) Norwegian patients from the early pandemic
-52% (32/61) of home-isolated young adults, aged 16–30 years, had symptoms at 6 months
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-impaired concentration (13%, 8/61)
-memory problems (11%, 7/61)
-fatigue (21%, 13/61)

Physical, psychological and cognitive profile of post-COVID condition in healthcare workers, Quebec, Canada
-~6000 COVID positive HCWs in Quebec between July 2020 and May 2021 pre-vaccines
-had controls, claims less bias than similar studies because participants recruited pre-COVID
~40% reported at least one post-infection symptom at 12 weeks
-10-20% described at least one “severe” post-infection symptom, did not decrease with time
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-cognitive dysfunction ~15% at 25 weeks
-fatigue ~25% at 25 weeks

Incidence, co-occurrence, and evolution of long-COVID features: A 6-month retrospective cohort study of 273,618 survivors of COVID-19
-analyzed health records of 81 million US patients, idenitified 273000 COVID cases
-cases would have been for people that sought treatment, so worse than overall population
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-fatigue/malaise (12.82%; 5.87%
-cognitive symptoms (7.88%; 3.95%),

Prevalence, determinants, and impact on general health and working capacity of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 six to 12 months after infection: a population-based retrospective cohort study from southern Germany
-persons aged 18-65 years with PCR confirmed infection between Oct 2020 and March 2021
-11,710 subjects, reported symptom rates before, during infection and at later time
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-neurocognitive impairment (PD 31.3%)
-fatigue (PD 37.2%)

Persistence, prevalence, and polymorphism of sequelae after COVID-19 in young adults
-501 participants, median age of 21 years (range 19-29)
-compared 177 COVID cases after 6 months with controls, recent infection, asmptomatics
-found a significant trend towards metabolic disorders, higher Body Mass Index (BMI) (p=0.03), lower aerobic threshold (p=0.007), higher blood cholesterol (p<0.001) and low-density lipoprotein LDL levels
-there were no significant differences in psychosocial questionnaire scores

Long-term cardiovascular outcomes of COVID-19
-157000 VA patients, predominantly older white males
-also includes contemporary and historical control groups
-study period 2020-2021, pre-vaccine
-4.5% elevated risk of any cardiovascular outcome in entire cohort
-roughly 2.5% elevated risk of any cardiovascular outcome for mild cases

Risks and burdens of incident diabetes in long COVID: a cohort study
-181280 participants with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Sept 30, 2021
-note average participant age of ~61 years old
-had contemporary and historical control
-people with COVID-19 had increased risk (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.36–1.44) of diabetes
-excess burden (13.46, 95% CI 12.11–14.84, per 1000 people at 12 months) of diabetes ie roughly ~1% of cases
-Risks and burdens increased according to the severity of the acute phase of COVID-19

Six-month sequelae of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection: a retrospective cohort study of 10,024 breakthrough infections
-10024 vaccinated individuals, 9479 matched against unvaccinated controls
-no uninfected control group
-evaluated pre-Omicron
-this study is focused on evaluating difference in long-term outcomes between vaccinated vs unvaccinated and not so much the absolute rates
-two doses of vaccine had no impact on “long-COVID” features, several other disorders

Presence of Symptoms 6 Weeks After COVID-19 Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated U.S. Healthcare Personnel
-participants had COVID-19 with either verified mRNA vaccination or no vaccination
-among 681 eligible participants, 419 (61%) completed survey ~6 weeks after illness onset
-~71% reported one or more COVID-like symptoms 6 weeks after illness onset
-lower prevalence of long-term symptoms among vaccinated participants
-”significant” post-infection symptoms:
-fatigue ~30%
-cognitive symptoms: 25%

Indirect PASC impacts from labor statistics

Is ‘long Covid’ worsening the labor shortage?
-assumes ~100 million workers infected by Oct 2021
-roughly estimates ~1.1 million people out of work due to long COVID at any given time

COVID-19 Likely Resulted in 1.2 Million More Disabled People by the End of 2021
-additional 1.2 million people in the US civilian institutional population with a registered disability in 2021 compared to 2020
-total labor force without disability is down ~2 million since the start of the pandemic
-large increase in workers with disability likely due to PASC, ~1% of infected workers

Summary
-PASC research suggests >10% chance of “significant” long-term impact from COVID infection, esp fatigue and cognitive symptoms (estimates vary around 10-20%)
-additional risk of cardiovascular disease after mild infection is ~2.5%
-vaccines did not protect against all PASC conditions (estimates vary between 50% reduction to no protection)
-vaccine protection has likely not improved with Omicron dominant given relatively worse protection against symptomatic infection
-labor statistics suggest >1% of infected workers either disabled or too sick to continue working at least temporarily
-current overall picture is >1%-10% of COVID infections result in “significant” long term impacts, with large uncertainties in actual rates but these are likely lower bounds

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

places the positive wife and presumed positive i have been in the past week:

1. dentist (no masks, but masks for staff w/portable hepa filters running on full)
2. grocery store (just her, but in an aura in a still mask-dominant area of the country)
3. a home nannyshare, where everyone tests routinely and is pretty careful. all have tested negative recently.

welp. two years of locking down in every way we could without quitting our jobs down the drain. right after the moderna news, too. awesome.

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008


Probably a top-5 COVID meme

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Hey I didn't read this thread yet but it is only going to get longer and I wanted y'all to know that my therapist said it is ok to be concerned about covid and that therapists probably shouldn't be counseling people to take stupid risks with poor tradeoffs.

Working hard thank you!!!!

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.
Brunch is BACK

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice
Should add this to the OP IMHO

The old metrics for transmission:


The new metrics for transmission:

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

it feels like forever ago, but this was right as Delta was growing in the US. telling people to wear masks when this video was made could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives

then omicron hit, and aside from a couple weeks where the biden admin offered a few n95s (if you found an approved location and went to pick them up yourself), their policy on masks essentially hasn’t changed. biden himself still doesn’t wear a mask much of the time

a third of the kids that have died from covid have died in the last two months. that’s before BA.2, which is much deadlier for unvaccinated kids under 5. but don’t worry: 99% of schools are currently doing in person learning! :nutshot:

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Covid is in the water. I do not drink this. Covid is in the earth. I do not eat this.

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
^^^:wrong: dirt is delicious


lol remember madjackal holding that up as proof that he was right about unmasking

gently caress

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019


right hand side is a good look for vp 👍

Nocturtle
Mar 17, 2007

Insanite posted:

places the positive wife and presumed positive i have been in the past week:

1. dentist (no masks, but masks for staff w/portable hepa filters running on full)
2. grocery store (just her, but in an aura in a still mask-dominant area of the country)
3. a home nannyshare, where everyone tests routinely and is pretty careful. all have tested negative recently.

welp. two years of locking down in every way we could without quitting our jobs down the drain. right after the moderna news, too. awesome.

I'm sorry to hear this! Hope you can take it very easy for a while.

Also if you haven't already maybe consider isolating/masking at home. There's so much uncertainty and nothing definitive but there has been consistent speculation that reducing early viral load might help minimize the chance of longer term impacts.

edit: it's really important to emphasize parents haven been put into an impossible position recently and someone doing their best to avoid infection in that context isn't to blame.

Nocturtle has issued a correction as of 21:04 on Mar 24, 2022

Animal-Mother
Feb 14, 2012

RABBIT RABBIT
RABBIT RABBIT

I reminded several people about this and they had no recollection of it. Google returns almost nothing but local news stations. YouTube isn't in a hurry to find it.

lobotomy molo
May 7, 2007

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Animal-Mother posted:

I reminded several people about this and they had no recollection of it. Google returns almost nothing but local news stations. YouTube isn't in a hurry to find it.

google’s brain fog has been getting pretty bad these last few years

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Fly Molo posted:

google’s brain fog has been getting pretty bad these last few years

it’s pretty alarming but idk what can be done. oh well

Insanite
Aug 30, 2005

Nocturtle posted:

I'm sorry to hear this! Hope you can take it very easy for a while.

Also if you haven't already maybe consider isolating/masking at home. There's so much uncertainty and nothing definitive but there has been consistent speculation that reducing early viral load might help minimize the chance of longer term impacts.

edit: it's really important to emphasize parents haven been put into an impossible position recently and someone doing their best to avoid infection in that context isn't to blame.

yeah, we're in auras right now. air filters are running. isolating from the toddler is hard to impossible. rules.

most recent nasal vs. throat + nasal swab comparison:



throat's nice and dark.

Insanite has issued a correction as of 21:08 on Mar 24, 2022

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

mawarannahr posted:

it’s pretty alarming but idk what can be done. oh well

Yeah it isn't like anyone knows how these things work or can be held accountable...

Wait what's that you say? There's a whole field of research on explainability in ai systems??? Ah, well, nevertheless

The Saucer Hovers
May 16, 2005

U-DO Burger posted:

this last month has been such a shitshow. just off the top of my head

1. Impact Research releases a memo saying the dems can win the midterms by declaring victory over covid (https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/IMPACT-COVID-positioning-strategy-memo.pdf)

2. CDC gets the memo and rewrites the community transmission guidelines so that high transmission is actually low transmission now. Masks are now only recommended when cases have already reached critical mass. All states drop mask mandates almost immediately.

3. Ezekial Emmanuel, a man who once wrote on op-ed about why it's good for society when old people die earlier, releases a roadmap for living with covid. (https://www.covidroadmap.org/) The roadmap claims that we are approaching endemicity, and we will have achieved it when we reach fewer than 60,000 deaths per year from covid, RSV, and flu combined. (we are already over 20,000 dead from COVID this month) The roadmap calls for a ton of vaccine research and for free covid treatment.

4. biden announces a test to treat program where people can get free covid testing, and free covid treatment if they test positive

5. congress drops all federal funding for covid, completely killing the goals outlined in the roadmap, and the test to treat program, while making our already useless CDC community transmission map even worse

sorry for your mental illness op

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Animal-Mother posted:

I reminded several people about this and they had no recollection of it. Google returns almost nothing but local news stations. YouTube isn't in a hurry to find it.

I wonder if the tweet is still up. The screenshot has the account and date/time

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

reading through one of the older threads, march 10 2021
these were some simpler times

Why Am I So Tired
Sep 28, 2021
Does anyone have the go to source for needing to swab the throat? My parents refuse to listen to me and my dad is actively sick right now.

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.

Tzen posted:

reading through one of the older threads,
these were some simpler times

i remember, sir

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Animal-Mother posted:

I reminded several people about this and they had no recollection of it. Google returns almost nothing but local news stations. YouTube isn't in a hurry to find it.
lol yeah this poo poo got completely scrubbed

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Insanite posted:

yeah, we're in auras right now. air filters are running. isolating from the toddler is hard to impossible. rules.

most recent nasal vs. throat + nasal swab comparison:



throat's nice and dark.

That sucks rear end and I fully expect to make the same post within the next month, two if I’m lucky.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

TehSaurus posted:

Yeah it isn't like anyone knows how these things work or can be held accountable...

Wait what's that you say? There's a whole field of research on explainability in ai systems??? Ah, well, nevertheless

are you going to hold Google accountable ? to what???

what can the ai explain about all this?

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Do the genetically COVID-immune have a responsibility to birth and rear a new and superior race? And should the rest of humanity step aside? Just some Wednesday thoughts

Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Insanite posted:

places the positive wife and presumed positive i have been in the past week:

1. dentist (no masks, but masks for staff w/portable hepa filters running on full)
2. grocery store (just her, but in an aura in a still mask-dominant area of the country)
3. a home nannyshare, where everyone tests routinely and is pretty careful. all have tested negative recently.

welp. two years of locking down in every way we could without quitting our jobs down the drain. right after the moderna news, too. awesome.

Insanite posted:

yeah, we're in auras right now. air filters are running. isolating from the toddler is hard to impossible. rules.

most recent nasal vs. throat + nasal swab comparison:



throat's nice and dark.
loving hell, hopefully it actually is mild and you dodge long covid
also

Thoguh posted:

That sucks rear end and I fully expect to make the same post within the next month, two if I’m lucky.
:same:

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003

not_superiority posted:

got my honeywell full face in last night. felt invincible when i tried it on.

I pretend I'm in TENET and moving inverted back to 2019 for that sweet Classic Blackened Shrimp Alfredo from Applebees(tm).

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010




if joe biden's state of the union kills clarence thomas then I'll have to begrudgingly say biden did a good thing as president

wolfs
Jul 17, 2001

posted by squid gang

I feel like it took a while for the government to acknowledge 1 milly dead…..

Wrex Ruckus
Aug 24, 2015

https://twitter.com/gorskon/status/1507056402044538884

Toph Bei Fong
Feb 29, 2008



Martin Luther, Whether One May Flee From a Deadly Plague, 1527 posted:

They are much too rash and reckless, tempting God and disregarding everything which might counteract death and the plague. They distain the use of medicines; they do not avoid places and persons infected by the plague, but lightheartedly make sport of it and wish to prove how independent they are. They say that it is God’s punishment; if he wants to protect them he can do so without medicines or our carefulness. This is not trusting God but tempting him. God has created medicines and provided us with intelligence to guard and take good care of the body so that we can live in good health.

If one makes no use of intelligence or medicine when he could do so without detriment to his neighbor, such a person injures his body and must beware lest he become a suicide in God’s eyes. By the same reasoning a person might forego eating and drinking, clothing and shelter, and boldly proclaim his faith that if God wanted to preserve him from starvation and cold, he could do so without food and clothing. Actually that would be suicide.

It is even more shameful for a person to Pay No Heed to his own body and to fail to protect it against the plague the best he is able, and then to infect and poison others who might have remained alive if he had taken care of his body as he should have. He is thus responsible before God for his neighbor’s death and is a murderer many times over.

Engels, Condition of the Working Class in England, 1845 posted:

When one individual inflicts bodily injury upon another such that death results, we call the deed manslaughter; when the assailant knew in advance that the injury would be fatal, we call his deed murder. But when society places hundreds of proletarians in such a position that they inevitably meet a too early and an unnatural death, one which is quite as much a death by violence as that by the sword or bullet; when it deprives thousands of the necessaries of life, places them under conditions in which they cannot live – forces them, through the strong arm of the law, to remain in such conditions until that death ensues which is the inevitable consequence – knows that these thousands of victims must perish, and yet permits these conditions to remain, its deed is murder just as surely as the deed of the single individual; disguised, malicious murder, murder against which none can defend himself, which does not seem what it is, because no man sees the murderer, because the death of the victim seems a natural one, since the offence is more one of omission than of commission. But murder it remains.

A.D. Condo, The Outbursts of Everett True, 1918


Something Awful, COVID Thread, 2022 posted:

Something that scares me about covid that we don’t talk about as often: covid as an object lesson about the capability and role of the government. Everybody old enough to pay attention to the news spent the last couple years watching the government say we needed to take action, try to do that for a minute, quickly give up, and switch all the messaging to either “I hate this and you do too so it’s over” or “I hate this and you do too so we’ll make it go away just as soon as we can.” There’s no burly protector with a sure hand on the wheel up there making the tough choices, it’s a bunch of rich idiots who are not only tired of masks themselves, but also financially dependent on placating the dumbest people in the country.

This is terrifying, because this is the army we’re going to war with. Everyone in charge of anything needs to pander to their base, both sides of the base have learned from covid that they can end any governmental attempt to do anything by whining hard enough, and we’re about to march this ridiculous assembly into an existential fight against the weather. What happens then? The governor of Florida sues a hurricane for breach of anti-hurricane statutes? Texas declares a three week blackout over on day two because blackouts are legally defined as being no more than two days long? Californians can’t work from home because the owners of all the burning cafes and parking structures rely on an in-person commute?

I think liberal democracies had a chance to learn how stuff’s going to work going forward, they decided to learn that you can be very popular if you pretend nothing is happening, the voters learned you can make the government say that rain falls from the ground into the sky if you want them to, and now we’re screwed. You could absolutely not introduce legislation mandating seatbelts in cars these days, we’re currently in the middle of agreeing that self driving cars that don’t work should be beta tested on public streets, and the only pressure on the government is from people saying to just let ‘em do it.

The way I see it, the lifting of covid restrictions has been like a gymnasium full of bad, divorced dads competing to see who can offer the latest bedtime, all saying that they’re doing it in defiance of the mean mom who doesn’t want you to stay up late. This one says he’ll ban toothbrushes! This one says he’ll make it illegal for teachers to make you read books! The mean mom doesn’t exist, though. There’s nobody with any power telling us to take care of ourselves and each other, there’s just a bunch of terrible morons telling us we don’t have to do things, and a nation of people cheering for that message. The only thing we’ve gained herd immunity against is the idea of being told to do something useful.

The Saucer Hovers
May 16, 2005

the, ugly people, the

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Shear Modulus posted:

if joe biden's state of the union kills clarence thomas then I'll have to begrudgingly say biden did a good thing as president

hell I’ll even say I’ll vote for him

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003



It's incredible how much these guys hate their fans

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Tzen
Sep 11, 2001

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

It is insanely mentally unwell to be concerned about the disease that is the #1 leading non-natural cause of death in the United States going on three years now, which our government has told us that they no longer will fund any sort of efforts to mitigate.

350-400K deaths every year is the baseline norm going forward and if this worries you, you are mentally unwell.

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