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Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

CapnAndy posted:

I don't think Stormlight 5 comes out in 2023? I thought he wanted all of 2023 to write it. If Secret Book 4 comes out concurrent or after Stormlight 5 it'll bug me way less.

He's shooting for autumn 2023 and is something like 3% done with it, and at his current pace he may get it out by then. Secret Book 4 is slated for October 2023 (per his Kickstarter page), so it's on track to release concurrently or close to Stormlight 5.

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RC Cola
Aug 1, 2011

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain
He also will be releasing the rock novella probably too

Sab669
Sep 24, 2009

CapnAndy posted:

I don't think Stormlight 5 comes out in 2023? I thought he wanted all of 2023 to write it. If Secret Book 4 comes out concurrent or after Stormlight 5 it'll bug me way less.

State of the Sanderson 2021 originally hoped for Fall 2023, but yea I think some things got in the way and he had a slightly later start on it or something

Skuzal
Oct 21, 2008

Sab669 posted:

State of the Sanderson 2021 originally hoped for Fall 2023, but yea I think some things got in the way and he had a slightly later start on it or something

My understanding is that the editing on Wax and Wayne 4 took a bit longer due to him writing a bunch more on it, but he still thinks he can hit his original timeline especially due to not having any conventions to go to. My guess is that Secret Book 4 would come out a month or two before Stormlight 5.

Mordiceius
Nov 10, 2007

If you think calling me names is gonna get a rise out me, think again. I like my life as an idiot!
Secret Book 4 should be start of October with Stormlight 5 at mid-late November.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Mordiceius posted:

Secret Book 4 should be start of October with Stormlight 5 at mid-late November.

Which would be similar to how Edgedancer and Dawnshard came out closely before Oathbringer and RoW, respectively. And both books "spoiled" a bit of those later books, too. In a way. If there's just that one plot beat that was revealed so far that's going to be spoilt for SA5, it would be fine with me. I can absolutely see Secret Book 4's storyline developing in a way that won't have any further Stormlight Archive spoilers.

As for Secret Book 4 itself, especially in light of that excerpt of the Sixth of the Dusk sequel scene released some time ago , it's interesting that Sig reacted quite surprised to see the Scadrian rune. He makes comparisons/mentions of Taldain and Threnody rather casually, and isn't that shocked about the idea that those refugees are Threnodyte offshoots. But that presumably Steel Alphabet letter really surprised him. I wonder why.

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Skuzal posted:

My understanding is that the editing on Wax and Wayne 4 took a bit longer due to him writing a bunch more on it, but he still thinks he can hit his original timeline especially due to not having any conventions to go to. My guess is that Secret Book 4 would come out a month or two before Stormlight 5.

He'll be fine as long as he doesn't accidentally write a bunch of secret books along the way

Mordiceius
Nov 10, 2007

If you think calling me names is gonna get a rise out me, think again. I like my life as an idiot!
https://youtu.be/8Y_zlMLh70k

eke out
Feb 24, 2013




betting it'll be some kind of mistborn adaptation -- since making a billion dollars on kickstarter probably helps attract funding for games/movies -- but who knows

Mordiceius
Nov 10, 2007

If you think calling me names is gonna get a rise out me, think again. I like my life as an idiot!

eke out posted:

betting it'll be some kind of mistborn adaptation -- since making a billion dollars on kickstarter probably helps attract funding for games/movies -- but who knows

Some great comments on this


Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Was about to post this, I'm a little afraid. He's unpredictable. I'm not just talking about just writing 5 new books (that's actually not that shocking), but I don't think it's hyperbole to say that nobody expected Kelsier to appear in Fortnite, yet that happened. So...

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.
"Varys is Hoid" probably wouldn't even make the top 10 list of ASOIAF's most insane theories.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Torrannor posted:

Was about to post this, I'm a little afraid. He's unpredictable. I'm not just talking about just writing 5 new books (that's actually not that shocking), but I don't think it's hyperbole to say that nobody expected Kelsier to appear in Fortnite, yet that happened. So...

well he's pals with a guy high up in epic

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.
A completely random thought: has anyone ever asked Brandon if gunpowder is even inventable on Roshar? Maybe there's just no sulfur on the entire planet, who knows. It'd explain why they're still stuck at swords and bows despite having 4500 years to figure out something better.

External Organs
Mar 3, 2006

One time i prank called a bear buildin workshop and said I wanted my mamaws ashes put in a teddy from where she loved them things so well... The woman on the phone did not skip a beat. She just said, "Brang her on down here. We've did it before."

CapnAndy posted:

A completely random thought: has anyone ever asked Brandon if gunpowder is even inventable on Roshar? Maybe there's just no sulfur on the entire planet, who knows. It'd explain why they're still stuck at swords and bows despite having 4500 years to figure out something better.

I remember something about there being a higher atmospheric oxygen content on Roshar so explosives are somewhat unpredictable / very dangerous. Dunno about gunpowder itself.

ConfusedUs
Feb 24, 2004

Bees?
You want fucking bees?
Here you go!
ROLL INITIATIVE!!





CapnAndy posted:

A completely random thought: has anyone ever asked Brandon if gunpowder is even inventable on Roshar? Maybe there's just no sulfur on the entire planet, who knows. It'd explain why they're still stuck at swords and bows despite having 4500 years to figure out something better.

I'd say it's probably a combo of the higher-than-average oxygen content of the air making explosives very risky, the recurring apocalypses resetting technology levels to subsistence levels, and the general availability of magic as an alternative.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

ConfusedUs posted:

I'd say it's probably a combo of the higher-than-average oxygen content of the air making explosives very risky, the recurring apocalypses resetting technology levels to subsistence levels, and the general availability of magic as an alternative.
I'm taking the latter two into account; with only 4500 years since they last got reset to the Stone Age and sources of magic power I'm not, for instance, too down on them for not figuring out steam power yet (though they should be right on the cusp of that, especially now that they've invented vehicles that could really use it). But gunpowder is much earlier and "kill those fuckers wearing armor and using swords" is a problem that their magic can't solve.

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

me whenever I see another Sanderson tease.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon
I mean they do get guns by the time of Sixth of the Dusk, just shardguns are much better than gunpowder.

I haven't read any of the secret book excerpts but I saw that one spoiler about Aux calling himself a knight and I'm just going to blindly guess that he's a Seon who swore the oaths. because why not?

Sab669
Sep 24, 2009

Unless I'm missing something...... Sixth of Dusk != Roshar though?

Like yea they also have gunns in MB Era 2 too but CapnAndy asked about gunpowder on Roshar specifically

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

CapnAndy posted:

I'm taking the latter two into account; with only 4500 years since they last got reset to the Stone Age and sources of magic power I'm not, for instance, too down on them for not figuring out steam power yet (though they should be right on the cusp of that, especially now that they've invented vehicles that could really use it). But gunpowder is much earlier and "kill those fuckers wearing armor and using swords" is a problem that their magic can't solve.

There's probably an assumption that magical research always somewhat competes with "real" research in fantasy works. It should be noted that fabrial science can be done by anybody, no need to have inborn or acquired magical abilities. Which removes one of the main arguments against magical technology replacing "normal" technology (the underclass searching for ways to gain advantages over the magical elite). Also, Roshar is inherently more inhospitable than Earth. Earth's Stone Age ended (depending on your definition) between 4000 to 2000 BCE. Which means it took between about 5600 to 3600 years from the end of the Stone Age to the invention of the steam engine on Earth. Which fits with the 4500 years sine the end of the Final Desolation on Roshar, even apart from the Rosharans being thrown back deep into the stone age that they had to climb out first, on a harsher planet than Earth. And with magic science probably partly crowding out non-magical science to a degree.

As for gunpowder, that may be a case of the base materials being harder to come by in Roshar's strange geology and ecology.

Edit: And since somebody mentions guns, their invention on Scadrial (and Taldain!) shows that Brandon isn't afraid of more modern technology in the Cosmere, so it's probably deliberate for Roshar. Which means he likely also came up with a reason for why gunpowder hasn't been invented there, yet.

Torrannor fucked around with this message at 19:34 on May 31, 2022

Brutor Fartknocker
Jun 18, 2013


Sixth isn't on roshar, it's on some random planet without a shard directly influencing it, if memory serves.

Also scadrial had canning long before guns, and Harmony says something about being surprised they haven't developed radio or planes so sando has shown various places have their own nonearth relative technological timelines.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Scadrial had gunpowder but TLR didn't like it and deliberately suppressed the tech.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

Torrannor posted:

There's probably an assumption that magical research always somewhat competes with "real" research in fantasy works. It should be noted that fabrial science can be done by anybody, no need to have inborn or acquired magical abilities. Which removes one of the main arguments against magical technology replacing "normal" technology (the underclass searching for ways to gain advantages over the magical elite). Also, Roshar is inherently more inhospitable than Earth. Earth's Stone Age ended (depending on your definition) between 4000 to 2000 BCE. Which means it took between about 5600 to 3600 years from the end of the Stone Age to the invention of the steam engine on Earth. Which fits with the 4500 years sine the end of the Final Desolation on Roshar, even apart from the Rosharans being thrown back deep into the stone age that they had to climb out first, on a harsher planet than Earth. And with magic science probably partly crowding out non-magical science to a degree.

As for gunpowder, that may be a case of the base materials being harder to come by in Roshar's strange geology and ecology.
Yeah, I agree with you on literally every point. I'm specifically not knocking them for not having steam yet, I just note that they should be right on the cusp of it, both on a general time-to-develop sense and in the more specific sense that they have all the technological prerequisites, and with the invention of vehicles powered by force-isolated cojoined rubies, they now have a need for engines that they didn't have before. They can brew tea and they're using highstorm winds to turn windmills to lift the weights they're currently using to store kinetic energy; I expect someone shortly to make the mental step to cutting out the middleman and just sticking forward-force-only rubies on a pinwheel.

As for gunpowder, my point is that it comes much sooner than steam, and "we need to kill dudes wearing armor and using swords and bows" is a problem they have no solution for, magical or otherwise. So I specifically weondered if the base materials just aren't present on Roshar or something, and if anyone's ever thought to ask Brandon about that.

Tunicate posted:

Scadrial had gunpowder but TLR didn't like it and deliberately suppressed the tech.
Combination of wanting to freeze technology more-or-less at a medieval level so he didn't get overthrown and being so strongly of Preservation that he just didn't like change in general, I think.

Also "You people really should be on radio by now, I think I made it too easy on you" is one of my favorite Harmony lines.

HidaO-Win
Jun 5, 2013

"And I did it, because I was a man who had exhausted reason and thus turned to magicks"
Hmm does Roshar have trees that are mostly made of cellulose? That could be a stumbling block on making certain things. Also the higher oxygen count makes any exothermic reaction a bit harder to manage.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

CapnAndy posted:


Also "You people really should be on radio by now, I think I made it too easy on you" is one of my favorite Harmony lines.

It's great because it shows what a doofus he is

Oh no, your progression is slower than two other groups on this planet that have been fed tech advancements by Kelsier and Trell.

Is it my expectations that are the problem?
No, it is the children that are wrong.

Fezz
Aug 31, 2001

You should feel ashamed.
How useful is guns against magical armor and people who can heal themselves instantly?

Yngwie Mangosteen
Aug 23, 2007
Shardblades also negate armor, and it may be that the only nitrogen fixing species are ones brought with humans. Plus the higher O2 content. Also, of course, it's a fictional fantasy world with wizards and magic knights.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

Fezz posted:

How useful is guns against magical armor and people who can heal themselves instantly?
Not very, but they had some 2000 years where that was not the problem, other random-rear end humans with Shardbearers being an extreme rarity was.

It's definitely possible that there are no nitrogen-fixing plants outside of Shinovar, though.

seaborgium
Aug 1, 2002

"Nothing a shitload of bleach won't fix"




CapnAndy posted:

Not very, but they had some 2000 years where that was not the problem, other random-rear end humans with Shardbearers being an extreme rarity was.

It's definitely possible that there are no nitrogen-fixing plants outside of Shinovar, though.

Even now, it's not like the whole army is made of Shardbearers. They'd still be useful. They've also shown that even big rear end arrows from a ballista can pierce shardplate, it's not totally invulnerable.

And what is his next secret? Everyone who backed it gets an additional book as well?

Brutor Fartknocker
Jun 18, 2013


Might be something with how he originally wanted fantasy knights in power armor, which became shardplate. Also guns seem like a pretty poo poo tool against the fused.

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Brutor Fartknocker posted:

Might be something with how he originally wanted fantasy knights in power armor, which became shardplate. Also guns seem like a pretty poo poo tool against the fused.

Yeah wasn't his whole schtick that Sanderson though huge swords were badass and wanted to write a whole story around it? You have guns in MB4, which makes sense there as the technology has progressed to align with the equivalent of the early 20th century, whereas Roshar is more, I don't know, middle ages? It doesn't really fit given the technology they're utilizing, which is fabrial specific anyway. If anything they'd invent fabrial specific guns utilizing stormlight.

e: added spoiler tags just in case.

M_Gargantua
Oct 16, 2006

STOMP'N ON INTO THE POWERLINES

Exciting Lemon

Sab669 posted:

Unless I'm missing something...... Sixth of Dusk != Roshar though?

Like yea they also have gunns in MB Era 2 too but CapnAndy asked about gunpowder on Roshar specifically

Sixth is on the planet First of the Sun, which is somewhat touched by Autonomy but not necessarily his shardworld, as it was invested before Adonalsium's shattering. But at the time of the book is very late in both Scadrial's and Roshar's history. To the point where the both of their societies are competing over First, and at which point in the timeline they have guns and shardguns and real heavy magic nonsense. Which comes from one of the short stories floating around.

M_Gargantua fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Mar 29, 2022

Anshu
Jan 9, 2019


Tunicate posted:

It's great because it shows what a doofus he is

Oh no, your progression is slower than two other groups on this planet that have been fed tech advancements by Kelsier and Trell.

Is it my expectations that are the problem?
No, it is the children that are wrong.


I don't read the line that way at all. I guess comparison to the Set and the Southern Scadrians might be part of it, but he all but explicitly puts the blame on himself for making things too easy after the Catacendre.

seaborgium
Aug 1, 2002

"Nothing a shitload of bleach won't fix"




Louisgod posted:

Yeah wasn't his whole schtick that Sanderson though huge swords were badass and wanted to write a whole story around it? You have guns in MB4, which makes sense there as the technology has progressed to align with the equivalent of the early 20th century, whereas Roshar is more, I don't know, middle ages? It doesn't really fit given the technology they're utilizing, which is fabrial specific anyway. If anything they'd invent fabrial specific guns utilizing stormlight.

e: added spoiler tags just in case.

Wanting huge swords was a lot of it I think. Just wanted to say that while guns might not be super effective against Shardplate, it's not like humanity hasn't had to deal with armor before. If the rock you're throwing doesn't do anything, just throw a bigger rock.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Anshu posted:

I don't read the line that way at all. I guess comparison to the Set and the Southern Scadrians might be part of it, but he all but explicitly puts the blame on himself for making things too easy after the Catacendre.

It's a combination of factors but the whole conversation adds up to Harmony constantly has things go not-as-planned, and demonstrably isn't omniscient, but still acts as if he IS.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

Anshu posted:

I don't read the line that way at all. I guess comparison to the Set and the Southern Scadrians might be part of it, but he all but explicitly puts the blame on himself for making things too easy after the Catacendre.
Yeah, that was my reading of the line too. He has a broad strokes timeline in his head for how he expected Scadrial to advance after he recreated it (he presumably seeded oil deposits and such) and he's starting to realize he might've hosed up a bit, because they're lagging behind it.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Tunicate posted:

It's a combination of factors but the whole conversation adds up to Harmony constantly has things go not-as-planned, and demonstrably isn't omniscient, but still acts as if he IS.

How so? I don't understand that charge, how is he acting as if he were omniscient? What should he be doing differently?

Also, he very clearly isn't omniscient, but he's still a shardholder. That means he does have limited future sight. This fact shouldn't be overlooked.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

Torrannor posted:

How so? I don't understand that charge, how is he acting as if he were omniscient? What should he be doing differently?

Also, he very clearly isn't omniscient, but he's still a shardholder. That means he does have limited future sight. This fact shouldn't be overlooked.


Among other things, how he tells Wax that everything was part of his plan, and that Wax can't be upset with him because Harmony knows that this was the best possible timeline thanks to his ability to see the future.

This is after the entire problem with Lessie was caused by Harmony eschewing even the most basic empathy when making his plans, in favor of just trying to see the future. Which lead him to the conclusion that making her fake her own gruesome death at the hands of the person she loves most in the world couldn't possibly backfire.


To extend to Stormlight I don't think Honor's prohibition on future sight is necessarily just an ideology or odium thing, I think reliance upon future sight consistently works out poorly because it gives you false certainty

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Skuzal
Oct 21, 2008
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FoUcDD7t8g A reveal from his video yesterday

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