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KitConstantine posted:Pics that make you go hmmm  Interesting, this is on the east side of the city so presumably they'd be blowing it up after they'd abandoned Kherson and would be using it to stop the Ukrainians chasing them further back towards Crimea rather than using it for defence of Kherson.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:55
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Doccers posted:I'm reading the Kyiv withdrawal as more "Pull offensive units back to refit/rearm/reassemble" (most likely combine several 70% strength BTG's into fewer BTG's at full strength) and then renew the assault soon, under the "Well if we're this beat up, the other guy must be close to breaking too" train of thought. They haven't been able to replace logistics, so resupply/rearm is still a longshot. Worth remembering despite the lovely planning, the Ukrainians were taken by surprise by the invasion because of how badly it was communicated. Now they know the Russias are there and can react accordingly.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:55
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:I wanna know what happened to the vaunted Russian cyber espionage capabilities? Are Russian hackers really only good at installing ransomware in underfunded hospital networks or tricking grandmas into buying Amazon gift cards? They have (maybe had, with tons of young IT folks bailing for the EU) good capabilities, but most of their strength was in giving groups free reign to do whatever with the backing of the State. They also bought a lot of zero day exploits as well. A lot of their hacks are stuff that most Cybersecurity grads in the states could do fairly trivially but don't because they would be caught and arrested and lose out on an actual profitable career.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:58
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Doccers posted:I'm reading the Kyiv withdrawal as more "Pull offensive units back to refit/rearm/reassemble" (most likely combine several 70% strength BTG's into fewer BTG's at full strength) and then renew the assault soon, under the "Well if we're this beat up, the other guy must be close to breaking too" train of thought. yeah. i can see them reforming units as new units and just sending them back into the grinder. i think if they do wait, it will also give UA a ton of time to arm up and poo poo even more. russians can only replace their poo poo with conscripts and old tanks. CommieGIR posted:They haven't been able to replace logistics, so resupply/rearm is still a longshot.
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Mar 29, 2022 18:58
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KitConstantine posted:Pics that make you go hmmm It is goons assigning importance to Kherson, not the Russians. Setting up the bridge to blow and pulling back to the eastern bank is the logical thing to do. We went over this yesterday (or maybe that was with someone else)
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Mar 29, 2022 18:59
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CommieGIR posted:They haven't been able to replace logistics, so resupply/rearm is still a longshot. I think that's why they're pulling the units back to within their logistics "reach". And yes, that's a good point... however, the Ukrainians *have* lost quite a bit of manpower and equipment as well. They're doing better at concealing it than Russia is, but my bet is it's significantly more than what Oryx has been able to document. Aaaand on the other hand, Ukraine has what, 400k reserve troops currently in the training pipeline now? On the other other OTHER hand, those are likely light infantry only and Ukraine still needs more mechanized equi- I'm dizzying myself here.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:01
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kemikalkadet posted:
No, you dum dum! You blow the bridge up so that your troops on the west bank cannot retreat but must fight! You bring reinforcement on boat just like in Stalingrad! 
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Mar 29, 2022 19:02
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MikeC posted:It is goons assigning importance to Kherson, not the Russians. Setting up the bridge to blow and pulling back to the eastern bank is the logical thing to do. We went over this yesterday (or maybe that was with someone else) Kherson is of propaganda value, it's the only major city Russia's been able to take and hold (Mariopol is not, technically, taken yet). After seeing the sheer rage the far-nationalist Russians have responded with re: the Kyiv withdrawal, "Just giving up" Kherson does not seem like a good call if they can reasonably hold it...
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Mar 29, 2022 19:03
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Doccers posted:I think that's why they're pulling the units back to within their logistics "reach". These were supposedly good units. Even resupplied and re-armed, they'd likely still struggle against Ukrainian units. Because they'd still be lacking: Coordination, Training, and in-field supply. Doccers posted:Kherson is of propaganda value, it's the only major city Russia's been able to take and hold (Mariopol is not, technically, taken yet). Its more than that: Kherson is a good crossroads to forcing Russian supplies to use Mauripol or even landing supplies on the coast. If Ukraine can retake Kherson, they can hit targets in Crimea and deny resupply to the East.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:04
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DOOMocrat posted:More than anything it just seems occupying a technologically advanced enough populace with mechanized anti-air and anti-vehicle weaponry with modern communications in place just might be impossible. Well, impossible apart from full scale subjugation/extermination. That's probably a good thing for the world in the long run. It's essentially impossible even when the opposing force doesn't have extremely good weapons: look at Afghanistan. You can't occupy and/or govern a place successfully when a large portion of the population just says, "actually, I'd rather just take my chances with killing you instead." Sometimes it will take longer than other times, but either you arrive at some form of the consent of the governed (even if it's only because you've threatened them sufficiently) or you eventually get kicked the gently caress out.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:04
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Shogeton posted:I imagine that the EU has to buy their roubles form you, and you can gently caress them on the exchange rate? Captain Fargle posted:Yeah. It would be a way to force other countries to acknowledge that the rouble is worth what you say it is. Couldn't the EU just buy rubles at market price from anyone who has rubles?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:04
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I think Russia needs Ukraine back because they were the only ones in the military who knew what the gently caress they were doing. Letting Chechnyian Borat run things is not going great Bear has been defanged
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Mar 29, 2022 19:06
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MikeC posted:It is goons assigning importance to Kherson, not the Russians. Setting up the bridge to blow and pulling back to the eastern bank is the logical thing to do. We went over this yesterday (or maybe that was with someone else) It was with someone else lol I barely posted yesterday. And I don't disagree that it makes sense for Russia to bail on Kherson - the push to Odesa is all but dead, for all that Russia took a shot at Mykolaiv earlier today. They don't need Kherson for the landbridge to Crimea. But it was the only major oblast capital that Russia 'took' in the initial push so it's pretty embarrassing politically to have to leave, even as part of a relatively ordered retreat.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:07
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CommieGIR posted:These were supposedly good units. Even resupplied and re-armed, they'd likely still struggle against Ukrainian units. Because they'd still be lacking: Coordination, Training, and in-field supply. Good question to ask: Has "The west" also been supplying Ukraine with communications equipment/Infrastructure? It's not as sexy as an NLAW or Javelin, I know.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:09
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Doccers posted:Good question to ask: Has "The west" also been supplying Ukraine with communications equipment/Infrastructure? It's not as sexy as an NLAW or Javelin, I know. There's a whole lot of OSINT groups monitoring radios in Ukraine, and Ukraine at least seems to have secure comms, whether the west is supplying any of that I do not know. But if Russia is resupplying the units with the same comms equipment they've been units....hilarity will continue to ensue.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:13
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Doccers posted:I'm reading the Kyiv withdrawal as more "Pull offensive units back to refit/rearm/reassemble" (most likely combine several 70% strength BTG's into fewer BTG's at full strength) and then renew the assault soon, under the "Well if we're this beat up, the other guy must be close to breaking too" train of thought. Ukraine has been extremely good at playing defense in depth and trading space while maximizing Russian attrition. Pulling back and giving them all that space back might be their best option, but it's definitely not a good one.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:15
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Doccers posted:Good question to ask: Has "The west" also been supplying Ukraine with communications equipment/Infrastructure? It's not as sexy as an NLAW or Javelin, I know. Yes, they have been. The White House mentioned secure comms in their security assistance fact sheet that they published in mid-March, and there's been a variety of chatter about Ukrainian forces using Starlink devices for military uses. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
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Mar 29, 2022 19:16
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Doccers posted:I'm reading the Kyiv withdrawal as more "Pull offensive units back to refit/rearm/reassemble" (most likely combine several 70% strength BTG's into fewer BTG's at full strength) and then renew the assault soon, under the "Well if we're this beat up, the other guy must be close to breaking too" train of thought. I'd honestly like to see them try. The ukrainians have defeated entire full strength BTGs before, and they'll just steamroll them harder this time.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:17
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:Couldn't the EU just buy rubles at market price from anyone who has rubles? Currency trading is a bit weird in that prices go up there more you want to buy. It is also important to note that when you have currency (not physical cash) you have an account inside the relevant country. If you have a Ruble-denominated account in another country, it's really just your bank holding the corresponding amount of Rubles in Russia (or promising to deliver such Rubles - in which they'll have to buy them if you transfer them out of the bank). If I want to buy a billion Rubles from a hypothetical bank in China, they might not have a billion Ruble on hand - due to inflation, they very likely don't have a bunch of Rubles laying around. But they can go buy them from a bank in Russia. When I then want to transfer that billion to Gazprom, I tell my Chinese bank to do that, and they'll ask their Russian bank to make the transfer. And the accounts all cancel out. It's a simplified version but that's basically how it works. Since noone is actually holding Rubles right now in large amounts - because of inflation and not being able to use them for anything - you eventually end up having to buy them from a Russian bank. Even if it's through a chain of intermediaries. So there is no market to determine the price. And the mechanism where wanting to buy large amounts of currency is already making it more expensive (as it create exposure risk for the bank) just gets worse. Noone wants to buy Rubles right now, and noone but Russia has any to sell - and they really want to sell them. It will raise the value of Rubles and it will incentivize non-sanction affected countries to start holding Rubles again.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:18
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Kaal posted:Yes, they have been. The White House mentioned secure comms in their security assistance fact sheet that they published in mid-March, and there's been a variety of chatter about Ukrainian forces using Starlink devices for military uses. Thanks, I missed the secure comms assistance. I'm aware of Starlink, but the old-me keeps thinking "Yes but Russia can jam those" - however.... current-me isn't so sure Russia actually has that capability.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:18
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Ynglaur posted:Would anyone be willing to loan money to Russia right now? I mean, I guess there's always a sucker out there... China would be ecstatic to loan Russia some yuan. Really, any amount yuan Russia could want even. Esplanade posted:"Putin, I've come to bargain." Out loud, thanks  mobby_6kl posted:Other than straight up carpet bombing cities? We’ll need a lawyer to disprove this own from happening tbh, with all the Grad rains and cluster munitions photos. Doccers posted:I'm reading the Kyiv withdrawal as more "Pull offensive units back to refit/rearm/reassemble" (most likely combine several 70% strength BTG's into fewer BTG's at full strength) and then renew the assault soon, under the "Well if we're this beat up, the other guy must be close to breaking too" train of thought. Yeah, if sanctions don’t escalate, and likely even in that case, Russia could very well still make for a bloody summer in Donbas, or elsewhere for that matter. I personally see this as 2 million-dollar questions - can they encircle JFO, and will we see gas taps turned shut over the rouble payments demand? TulliusCicero posted:Deployed right into the very High Military value Target of a Farmer's barn I think it’s reasonably well agree that hypersonic missile strike 1) did happen, 2) the missiles was not exotic, and the strike thus was uninteresting, and 3) the barn shot was random footage served for the announcement, because it’s unlikely they has assets in their to make a video like that in the depths of Western Ukraine, where local air defence probably can use NATO radar guidance. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Mar 29, 2022 |
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Mar 29, 2022 19:18
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GaussianCopula posted:https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1508853571554525186 France, like the UK and Russia, really wants everyone to remember that they are a real Power, and someone to constantly pay attention to in international news. France doesn't do attention seeking antics because they are lead by Macron. Macron does attention seeking antics because he is very French.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:22
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Jarmak posted:Ukraine has been extremely good at playing defense in depth and trading space while maximizing Russian attrition. No, you see, the trick is to withdraw and then invade again from the same direction! Nobody expects VDV to land at that same airfield or riot police to drive to Kyiv again!
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Mar 29, 2022 19:23
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KitConstantine posted:Poland putting their money where their mouth is It's HUGE! It might be 20% overall, but at least half of coal used to heat houses comes from Russia. Polish coal mines are set up to serve powerplants. So either people switch really fast, or spend even more on coal. And switching will hurt, since CNG burners are hard to get and expensive. Guess electric heaters will be used instead, so I'm mentally prepared to occasional fire in the poorest houses..
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Mar 29, 2022 19:24
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Ynglaur posted:Would anyone be willing to loan money to Russia right now? I mean, I guess there's always a sucker out there... China and india have provided means to keep bank transactions going even without swift so i think they are willing to provide hard foreign currency in exchange for exportable(oil/gas/etc) goods. China has been a very mean loan provider so there is a good chance Russia will provide heavily discounted goods before going for loans.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:24
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:Couldn't the EU just buy rubles at market price from anyone who has rubles? “Anyone who has roubles” is basically Belarus and Bulgaria, in some comedy amounts. Their only way would be to buy them from Russia - and buying them from someone else, if there were an independent supply (not realistic due to how settlement works), would still benefit Russia. Doccers posted:Good question to ask: Has "The west" also been supplying Ukraine with communications equipment/Infrastructure? It's not as sexy as an NLAW or Javelin, I know. Zelenskyy has said that he’s running his office on American secure comms equipment, so I assume the answer is yes.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, if sanctions don’t escalate, and likely even in that case, Russia could very well still make for a bloody summer in Donbas, or elsewhere for that matter. I personally see this as 2 million-dollar questions - can they encircle JFO, and will we gas taps turned shut over the rouble payments demand? Part of me is still very much "how long does it take to train Mechanics, Logistics, Support, and Crew on western equipment" and then provide them with a few tank brigades, but undoubtedly Putin would go absolutely ballistic... and that may be a literal reference rather than figurative one.  Nenonen posted:No, you see, the trick is to withdraw and then invade again from the same direction! Nobody expects VDV to land at that same airfield or riot police to drive to Kyiv again! ITS JUST SO CRAZY IT MIGHT WORK!
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Mar 29, 2022 19:25
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mobby_6kl posted:Is there even anything they haven't tried yet? Other than straight up carpet bombing cities? Supposedly they even deployed their fancy hydrosonic missiles! Let’s not forget deploying stuff with Penetration Aides too!
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Mar 29, 2022 19:34
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GaussianCopula posted:https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1508853571554525186 
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Mar 29, 2022 19:43
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Large explosion in Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1508874225393754114
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Mar 29, 2022 19:47
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EscapeHere posted:Large explosion in Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border Self propelled ammo resupplying
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Mar 29, 2022 19:48
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TulliusCicero posted:I think Russia needs Ukraine back because they were the only ones in the military who knew what the gently caress they were doing. Letting Chechnyian Borat run things is not going great 
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Mar 29, 2022 19:49
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Let’s not forget deploying stuff with Penetration Aides too! They can't even get enough gas to their vehicles, what makes you think they're gonna be able to get truckloads of economy size KY Jelly to their soldiers?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:51
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EscapeHere posted:Large explosion in Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border Never let your logistics/ maintenance corps rot away kids
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Mar 29, 2022 19:52
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PederP posted:Currency trading is a bit weird in that prices go up there more you want to buy. It is also important to note that when you have currency (not physical cash) you have an account inside the relevant country. If you have a Ruble-denominated account in another country, it's really just your bank holding the corresponding amount of Rubles in Russia (or promising to deliver such Rubles - in which they'll have to buy them if you transfer them out of the bank). If I want to buy a billion Rubles from a hypothetical bank in China, they might not have a billion Ruble on hand - due to inflation, they very likely don't have a bunch of Rubles laying around. But they can go buy them from a bank in Russia. When I then want to transfer that billion to Gazprom, I tell my Chinese bank to do that, and they'll ask their Russian bank to make the transfer. And the accounts all cancel out. It's a simplified version but that's basically how it works. This is most likely very stupid question, but why is this so important? Can't they just sell the gas for Euro/Dollar and then use the foreign currency to buy the Rubles? Is the end result not the same? A) Germany buys Rubles from Russia and pays Euros to do it. Then buy gas with the Rubles. Russia has Euros and Rubles, Germany has gas. B) Germany buys Gas with Euros. Russia buys Rubles from itself with the Euros. Russia has Euros and Rubles, Germany has gas. How are these scenarios so fundamentally different?
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Mar 29, 2022 19:56
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Watching that Russian arsenal explode made me realize something: The beauty of supplying Ukraine all those Stingers and Javelins is that most of that equipment was reaching its expiry date in about a year or two and would have had to have been disposed of and replaced with newly manufactured product regardless of geopolitical developments. By shipping it to Ukraine for what is near immediate use, these missiles get to be used for their intended purpose rather than rotting away AND the arsenal gets refreshed in the US regardless.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:56
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EscapeHere posted:Large explosion in Russia, not far from the Ukrainian border There's (brief) video in the comments. Sound on for that. Also, Ukraine hit an ammo depot in the south. https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1508789788593340422
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Mar 29, 2022 19:56
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This is amazing work. As a student of political cartoons I can say that I’ve seen hundreds of pictures of the Russian bear, and have shown little to no emotion. But this picture made me stop and evaluate. Putting a Lego brick in made me actually look at what is really happening. Putting something that everyone is familiar with in a situation that no one knows, and to make people feel those emotions well, that takes amazing talent. Thank you.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:56
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D34THROW posted:They can't even get enough gas to their vehicles, what makes you think they're gonna be able to get truckloads of economy size KY Jelly to their soldiers? Well as always the first step is to form a 40 mile convoy.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:57
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Doccers posted:Kherson is of propaganda value, it's the only major city Russia's been able to take and hold (Mariopol is not, technically, taken yet). It's also around 7 Russian BTGs that risk getting trapped on the west bank if Ukraine try to take out the bridge.
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Mar 29, 2022 19:58
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