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If Poland unilaterally bans Russian oil & gas, does it mean they are going to ban flows across the country to other consumers as well?
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Mar 30, 2022 15:52
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^^ Extremely doubtfully.Fray posted:That seems like an incredibly low casualty count for the intensity of the fighting there over the past week. We don’t have good information on the size of force that retook Izyum. If it’s a brigade, 150 KWIA is 3% casualties, which may or may not be much. If it’s a battalion, that could be 12%, which is probably safe to describe as heavy casualties. 200-300 dead civilians, on the other hand, is 200-300 dead civilians too much.
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Mar 30, 2022 15:54
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steinrokkan posted:If Poland unilaterally bans Russian oil & gas, does it mean they are going to ban flows across the country to other consumers as well? No, AFAIK this is regarding purchasing of said commodities within Poland and the regulation doesn’t touch on transit issues, which are governed by international agreements.
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Mar 30, 2022 15:56
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KitConstantine posted:Warning for anyone following this on Twitter- there's been substantial reporting on rapes committed by Russian forces in Ukriane that's come out in the last few days. I haven't read the articles because I know I'm not in a good headspace for it, but the tweets about them frequently include graphic details. So be safe scrolling. sadly not shocked. i have heard really awful poo poo from stories from the soviet afghan war and the Chechen wars. its what happens when your train your army with Imperial Japanese army level hazing mixed with loving prison culture.
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Mar 30, 2022 15:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That’s what Kofman’s of this world are speculating, that the losses are heavily weighted towards the most capable, forward assault units. Speaking of Kofman and elite units getting messed up, I saw this a couple days back. Somebody noticed that the 4th Guards Tank Division around Kharkiv has racked up a pretty high attrition rate from documented OSINT alone. The 4th GTD is supposed to be one of the very best large formations in the Russian Army - In fact the Kharkiv area in general is stacked with creme Russian units. The number has increased since that tweet too, as there's been a wave of new documentation as the Ukrainians reclaim abandoned Russian territory around Sumy, and one of the 4th's tank regiments was there. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1508564580301164549 There's also this from the east side of Kharkiv. The mention of a "combined BTG" is interesting since it suggests the Russians have started consolidating battered units. https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1509166883102154757
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Mar 30, 2022 16:00
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alex314 posted:He lived in different world, like old time monarchs. I guess it's a thing for the last 10 years at least. There's some story about US sportmen/coach that had a commerative signet ring, that Putin asked about. So dude took it off to show the engraving etc. And Putin just pocketed it and went away, like that's how it's supposed to work. I'm pretty sure Trump has some stories just like that, although the only thing I can think of is when he took the hat off some kid, autographed it, and then threw it into the crowd lol. They really are brain-broke in an interestingly similar way
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Mar 30, 2022 16:02
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Dapper_Swindler posted:sadly not shocked. i have heard really awful poo poo from stories from the soviet afghan war and the Chechen wars. its what happens when your train your army with Imperial Japanese army level hazing mixed with loving prison culture. The Soviets also raped possibly as many as 2 million Germans in their victory lap at the end of WW2 if you choose to draw the throughline back that far
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Mar 30, 2022 16:04
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cinci zoo sniper posted:A week ago Russian infantry begun contesting city outskirts, more or less. Not even LDNR hacks claimed to have it back then, or do so now for that matter - they merely assert that they’re on the cusp of taking it, which is true. Which does unfortunately mean that they're closer to their strategic goal of securing the original borders of Donetsk Oblast for the pseudo-republic.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:04
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm pretty sure Trump has some stories just like that, although the only thing I can think of is when he took the hat off some kid, autographed it, and then threw it into the crowd lol. They really are brain-broke in an interestingly similar way Sociopaths gonna path
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Mar 30, 2022 16:09
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Looks like there were at least 4,794 postumus orders of courage issued on March 3rd. So, there were at least that many KIA by that date. https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/
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Mar 30, 2022 16:12
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Getting some hard numbers now on the cost to the airline industry - unsurprisingly it's a whole lot https://twitter.com/zakavkaza/status/1509181109661274118?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA Source on the Fitch claim: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2022/03/22/659163.htm quote:Industry experts estimate the total insured residual value of the grounded aircraft at US$13 billion, said Fitch. “Hull insurance will typically have aggregate loss limits in place, which means that potential hull insurance claims should be significantly below US$13 billion: we estimate US$5 billion–$6 billion in a realistic scenario,” Fitch added.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:15
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This thread is p good: https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1508924340821282818?s=20&t=0wiQYHOwzpGdaket2Yb8jA
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Mar 30, 2022 16:19
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And I don't know that I trust the sourcing (if you dig down you'll find wild claims of BTGs killed almost to the last man) but this is another high-end formation previously known to be in the Kharkiv area. The 200th is one of the Russian army's specialist arctic warfare units. https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1508909973585149959 Fray fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Mar 30, 2022 |
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Mar 30, 2022 16:19
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Speaking of airports: they're still a bad spot for Russia to be storing things right now! Different airport at least. https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1509180786871783436?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA There's more pictures of destruction in the replies But what's really interesting is that Ukraine got a missile there in the first place. That's an area that's been occupied since 2014 where Russia should theoretically have anti-air coverage. Given that this is supposed to be the primary Russian attack axis moving forward it doesn't bode well.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:19
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I think the leasing companies will be happy to take the money from the frozen assets and not have to deal with maintaining 20+ year old airframes
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Mar 30, 2022 16:20
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Oh my loving god how does he say this poo poo with a straight face https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1509179506359255053?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA Edit: And immediately after that tweet was this one https://twitter.com/AndrKolesnikov/status/1509179274326069255?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA Translation of original tweet: quote:Well, everything has been revealed: the Zelensky regime, with the support of world Jewry, is supplying the Nazis with weapons through the synagogue in Uman! KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Mar 30, 2022 |
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Mar 30, 2022 16:22
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Cimber posted:High, but the Russians can keep throwing guys into the meat grinder and not giving two shits. Burning up 35-40K soldiers in a month is unsustainable for nearly any offensive army anywhere. Defensive force losses can be different but that isn't the sort of war Russia is fighting here. They've also lost or had blown up a whole lot of their good equipment too. Some of it fairly cutting edge. As far as anyone can tell they've already sent their best soldiers and best equipped. What they have left is varying degrees of mediocre to flat out bad troops.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:25
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Charlz Guybon posted:Looks like there were at least 4,794 postumus orders of courage issued on March 3rd. So, there were at least that many KIA by that date. That's insane, it makes the 10k KIA figure look extremely realistic.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:26
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KitConstantine posted:Edit: And immediately after that tweet was this one Ah yes, the world jewry.  Its amazing how these Right Wing talking points are constantly projections.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:27
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KitConstantine posted:Oh my loving god how does he say this poo poo with a straight face Wait, “world Jewery” is arming “the Nazis?” In what loving universe does essentializing Jews and othering them (something Nazis do) and suggesting the “Jews” are funding an arming organizations whose predecessors murdered almost the entire population of Jewish people in Europe not seem absolutely absurd to everyone who hears it? Edit And I thought Trump was Orwellian.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:29
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What is the supposedly ironic term
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Mar 30, 2022 16:29
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Fray posted:And I don't know that I trust the sourcing (if you dig down you'll find wild claims of BTGs killed almost to the last man) but this is another high-end formation previously known to be in the Kharkiv area. The 200th is one of the Russian army's specialist arctic warfare units. You can't fool me that's former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker 
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Mar 30, 2022 16:31
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ZombieLenin posted:Wait, “world Jewery” is arming “the Nazis?” In what loving universe does essentializing Jews and othering them (something Nazis do) and suggesting the “Jews” are funding an arming organizations whose predecessors murdered almost the entire population of Jewish people in Europe not seem absolutely absurd to everyone who hears it? It's just too hard for fascists to ad-lib justifications for killing civilians without ranting about the Jews. They've been trying so hard! Nobody expected this war to go on this long, no wonder they're running out of stamina.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:31
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ZombieLenin posted:Wait, “world Jewery” is arming “the Nazis?” In what loving universe does essentializing Jews and othering them (something Nazis do) and suggesting the “Jews” are funding an arming organizations whose predecessors murdered almost the entire population of Jewish people in Europe not seem absolutely absurd to everyone who hears it?
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Mar 30, 2022 16:33
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CommieGIR posted:Ah yes, the world jewry. The nazi world jewry no less
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Mar 30, 2022 16:33
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Denazifying? No, policies based on Mein Kampf! 
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Mar 30, 2022 16:34
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From what I'm reading, "nazi" in Putinspeak means more "enemy of Russia, the grest nation who defeated the Nazis in ww2" and less "fascist".
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Mar 30, 2022 16:34
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That video posted earlier in the thread is absolute must watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq7bAYFi-jE I'm halfway through, and it fills some voids in my understanding pretty well. Interesting tidbit: every dead soldier's family gets 12.421.000 RUB, which is 147.000 USD by today's exchange rate (I know it's fake exchange rate). Still more money than I've expected. Median salary for Russia I could find was 110.000 RUB per month. Also regarding violent sex crimes - to this day my wife's grandma claims Germans* were better than Russians* during WW2. She was probably around 10 in 1944, but you can easily guess why someone living in the right bank of Vistula could have a lifelong burning hatred for Russians* after having Red Army front stay there for about 6 months. *she doesn't see any distinction between Soviets and Russians, same with Germans and Axis
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Mar 30, 2022 16:35
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:Burning up 35-40K soldiers in a month is unsustainable for nearly any offensive army anywhere. You are right, it is not sustainable to anyone thinking logically. But the Russians are not thinking logically right now. They are thinking that if they tell Putin he needs end the war now they are going to all be shot or sent to count trees in Siberia. So whats another 10,000 dead soldiers when your Dacha is at risk! Off to the front you go, Ivan!
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Mar 30, 2022 16:36
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FishMcCool posted:I don't think too many Russians paid for their videogames in the first place, but with Parallel imports aren't piracy, it's just first-sale doctrine. Parallel imports happen all the time when goods are sold for cheaper in another country even in the West.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:36
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Posting this because it looks like some here bought into the BS. This is a great video for debunking the myth that the Russians are just playing some sort've long con here and are purposely sandbagging things: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0 Its about a half hour long but its surprisingly good and the guy explains things well even if you don't know crap about military stuffs. Cimber posted:You are right, it is not sustainable to anyone thinking logically. Doesn't matter if they're flat out nuts. Its still incredibly unsustainable. Most military units start to fall apart and become useless with around 50% losses. Which means even if Putin gives no fucks how many die his military in the Ukraine will still start to become useless in the field within a couple of months with loss rates like that. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Mar 30, 2022 |
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Mar 30, 2022 16:37
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steinrokkan posted:Denazifying? Well, there is that far right/neo-nazi Azov brigade that is nominally part of the Ukrainian forces, so they have lumped that small minority in with the larger UA.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:37
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What is the supposedly ironic term  The thing that (very evil, but also kinda funny) Oligarch Kolomoyskiy is wearing here. The first part is an anti-Semitic slur I am not comfortable repeating (Kolomoyskiy is Jewish), the second is, well, Bandera. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Mar 30, 2022 |
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Mar 30, 2022 16:39
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What is the supposedly ironic term It auto-translates to "Jew-Banderite" as in a Jewish follower of Bandera's nazi-sympathising nationalism.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:39
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Cimber posted:Well, there is that far right/neo-nazi Azov brigade that is nominally part of the Ukrainian forces, so they have lumped that small minority in with the larger UA. Nah, they were always implying that Ukraine's Government, as a whole, was made up of Nazis. It wasn't some lumped in mistake. That's why its funny to see them straight up parroting Nazi talking points about world jewry.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:39
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Cast your mind back to March 2nd, when Russian planes violated Swedish airspace. "oh, they just hosed up navigating, or it was one of their standard provocations" was the consensus. Swedish media today: https://twitter.com/balticjam/status/1509186441263423493?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA Translation of the article: quote:Two of the Russian planes that violated Swedish airspace near Gotland on March 2 were equipped with nuclear weapons, TV4 Nyheterna experiences. According to information taken by the channel, the violation was a deliberate act with the aim of intimidating Sweden. Sooooo a little more serious than usual, perhaps 
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Mar 30, 2022 16:41
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:From what I'm reading, "nazi" in Putinspeak means more "enemy of Russia, the grest nation who defeated the Nazis in ww2" and less "fascist". One thing I've noticed is that there seems to be little audible difference between "nazi" and "nationalist" when I'm listening to e.g. Lavrov in that recently posted tweet. The terms are basically being used interchangeably and explains why you sometimes hear them talk about Ukrainian Nazis and other times Ukrainian Nationalists in English-translated reports on what Russia has claimed.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:42
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Putin’s Russia is such a cancer on the world. Literally a malign influence. It’s all killing and bullying the weak, poisoning, assassinations, kidnapping people to put in camps, ransom ware, lovely memes, disinformation, lies upon ludicrous lies, broken agreements and agreements in bad faith, corruption, destruction of property and people. I really hope his interests and those of the rest of the country diverge enough to put his reign to an end and put him in The Hague.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:44
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Charlz Guybon posted:Looks like there were at least 4,794 postumus orders of courage issued on March 3rd. So, there were at least that many KIA by that date. Oh hey, it's basically the German Tank Problem again.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I simply wouldn’t describe a premeditated transition period like that, since it’s, well, a transition period. Not sure what my familiarity with the technical details of EU accession protocol has to do with it. Okay, so now in you own words, a premeditated transition period is not a transition period. It was a transition period because it was a state between a beginning (not being an EU member with full rights) ended after a while when the end (being an EU member with full rights) was reached. What would you describe as a transition period? The whole point, which for some reason you seem to expend every effort in the world of misunderstanding or denying is: Any pretense that EU membership is a binary choice between "100% not a member" and "100% full membership from day 1" is proven wrong by the historical existence of transition periods, such as the one for Eastern European countries in the early 2000s. This does not mean that I'm endorsing those or implying that they should be permanent. A similar case can be made for NATO and the exceptions that are allowed for some countries. The bottom line is that Ukraine is neither in the EU nor NATO because those organizations don't want to have it instead of it being the only possible logical consequence of their respective rules.
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Mar 30, 2022 16:49
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