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Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Kraftwerk posted:

Why are they always making these announcements before they actually happen. Every time Ukraine is supposed to get some sort of decisive heavy weapons aid it always gets walked back as a "escalation" as if decimating the Russian tank corps with Javelins and NLAWs wasn't enough of an escalation? They've already inflicted severe casualties on the Russians as a result of western aid, what difference does it make?

If they're gonna make these announcements they should do them after the weapons are securely in the hands of the Ukrainian military, any time before that and we will be seeing Kalibr missiles and airstrikes flying into LVIV to blow it all up before it can be used.

At least in this case, it'll be because the Tories got a big polls boost for their assistance to Ukraine after being in a doom spiral of bad news before that. They're going to keep doing as much of this as possible and making as much noise as they can to distract from their failures in every other direction.

At least they're doing a good thing very loudly to cover for being poo poo rather than doing something stupid!

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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

It's wild watching the reversal of the trend of putin having used fun new tools in social manipulation and division to turn huge portions of the far right and far left alike into ideologically convenient authoritarianists or authoritarian apologetics designed around maximum uselessness against russia

And because of this all falling apart (among other factors of course) we see things like that Finland is probably a future NATO member

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

How do you pronounce Lviv? I've been saying "Liv" in my head but I highly doubt that's right.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Chalks posted:

At least in this case, it'll be because the Tories got a big polls boost for their assistance to Ukraine after being in a doom spiral of bad news before that. They're going to keep doing as much of this as possible and making as much noise as they can to distract from their failures in every other direction.

At least they're doing a good thing very loudly to cover for being poo poo rather than doing something stupid!

Especially since a lot of Tories are probably sweating right now about their Russia connections - there's been a lot of reporting on some of the shadier financial ties a lot of them have to the Putin regime. One example :https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-tories-russian-money-oligarch/

mutata
Mar 1, 2003

Moon Slayer posted:

How do you pronounce Lviv? I've been saying "Liv" in my head but I highly doubt that's right.

It's pronounced as written, so you smush a "v" into the back of the "L" and then add an "eev" to the end. "L'veev"

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Staluigi posted:

It's wild watching the reversal of the trend of putin having used fun new tools in social manipulation and division to turn huge portions of the far right and far left alike into ideologically convenient authoritarianists or authoritarian apologetics designed around maximum uselessness against russia

And because of this all falling apart (among other factors of course) we see things like that Finland is probably a future NATO member

It's worth reemphasizing the post from like a hundred pages back: it's not clear that the european or american targeted propaganda apparatuses have stopped being effective. Other than RT itself, a lot of those influence systems haven't been stopped, and folks are no more savvy against them (Rall's still writing and people are still falling for it on here, for instance). Rather it's that right now there's a full court press targeting other audiences, including china and india, and that's apparently diverting a lot of their less public systems, like the troll farms and comment botnets.

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

KitConstantine posted:

Seems like it ends up a wash then, depending on the situation. Factors like how long the sustained fighting is and how reliable the autoloader is would probably tilt things one direction or the other.

In other news Finland continues it's slide towards NATO
https://twitter.com/charlyjsp/status/1509507180512350214?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
Quoted guy is a Finnish parliament member

Edit:
Old but got brought up again today
https://twitter.com/WoodfordinDK/status/1508882180273025028?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA

Amazing that one of the original stated goals for invading Ukraine was to prevent Russia from having NATO on its borders...... and now it looks like a possibility that NATO may be on its border anyway.

Feliday Melody
May 8, 2021

Russia has been so incredibly bad at bullying countries into obeying them. Every single country has been doing the exact opposite of what Russia demands. And they keep making more threats and demands.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Moon Slayer posted:

How do you pronounce Lviv? I've been saying "Liv" in my head but I highly doubt that's right.

Lemberg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%9B%D1%8C%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B2_%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0.ogg

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Amazing that one of the original stated goals for invading Ukraine was to prevent Russia from having NATO on its borders...... and now it looks like a possibility that NATO may be on its border anyway.

NATO was always already on its borders. There's just gonna be more of it.

Seth Pecksniff
May 27, 2004

can't believe shrek is fucking dead. rip to a real one.

CommieGIR posted:

NATO was always already on its borders. There's just gonna be more of it.

Fair point :)

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

mutata posted:

It's pronounced as written, so you smush a "v" into the back of the "L" and then add an "eev" to the end. "L'veev"

It sounds more like L'viu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%9B%D1%8C%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%B2_%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0.ogg

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Seth Pecksniff posted:

Amazing that one of the original stated goals for invading Ukraine was to prevent Russia from having NATO on its borders...... and now it looks like a possibility that NATO may be on its border anyway.

Well, besides the Baltics and Poland if you count Kaliningrad. But the ones they probably *really* didn't want to join, Finland and Sweden, it seems that they are now both abandoning their policy of neutrality, and Putin even managed to make the Swiss take a side on this one. Well done indeed. :)

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Der Kyhe posted:

Well, besides the Baltics and Poland if you count Kaliningrad. But the ones they probably *really* didn't want to join, Finland and Sweden, it seems that they are now both abandoning their policy of neutrality, and Putin even managed to make the Swiss take a side on this one. Well done indeed. :)

It turns out that straddling the fence is a bad idea when one side of it is lava.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Russia is continuing to talk poo poo about Poland, increasing frequency of talk.
https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1509569864243073024?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
Just interesting to note. Especially since Poland is leading the charge on continuing to strengthen sanctions, including planning to end purchases of Russian coal in the next few months.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509566604027338755?s=20&t=g59VDzr1Kx0h0ZUrB7TDkQ
Speaking of Russia shaping western propaganda - check out this QAnon-looking poo poo
https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1509539894502334465?s=20&t=g59VDzr1Kx0h0ZUrB7TDkQ

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

KitConstantine posted:

Speaking of Russia shaping western propaganda - check out this QAnon-looking poo poo
https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1509539894502334465?s=20&t=g59VDzr1Kx0h0ZUrB7TDkQ

That reads and looks like someone having a mental breakdown. Only thing really missing is the strings between the images and texts.

D34THROW
Jan 29, 2012

RETAIL RETAIL LISTEN TO ME BITCH ABOUT RETAIL
:rant:

KitConstantine posted:

Russia is continuing to talk poo poo about Poland, increasing frequency of talk.
https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1509569864243073024?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
Just interesting to note. Especially since Poland is leading the charge on continuing to strengthen sanctions, including planning to end purchases of Russian coal in the next few months.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509566604027338755?s=20&t=g59VDzr1Kx0h0ZUrB7TDkQ
Speaking of Russia shaping western propaganda - check out this QAnon-looking poo poo
https://twitter.com/joeabodnar/status/1509539894502334465?s=20&t=g59VDzr1Kx0h0ZUrB7TDkQ

Of course Hunter Biden is involved again. :tinfoil:

Crow Buddy
Oct 30, 2019

Guillotines?!? We don't need no stinking guillotines!

Poor Hunter, he just wanted to do blow and rail hookers and he ends up being the 21st century's Dr. Moriarty.

Coquito Ergo Sum
Feb 9, 2021

Watching Russia play with Poland is scary. The only way that Poland wouldn't completely wipe the floor with Russia in a conflict is if nukes come into play.

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost

D34THROW posted:

Of course Hunter Biden is involved again. :tinfoil:

Again? Like is he next in line after Soros and Hillary?

Doccers
Aug 15, 2000


Patron Saint of Chickencheese

Coquito Ergo Sum posted:

Watching Russia play with Poland is scary. The only way that Poland wouldn't completely wipe the floor with Russia in a conflict is if nukes come into play.

Nukes are the murder-suicide option. If Russia nukes Poland, their government will cease to exist. And I suspect the West will be able to handle that with conventional guided munitions

Koos Group
Mar 6, 2013

What's the basis for your certainty that they're lying?

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

KitConstantine posted:

Russia is continuing to talk poo poo about Poland, increasing frequency of talk.

Ah, interestingly that tracks with a lot of recent "bad twitter" takes that have just sprung up about how historically barbaric the Ukrainians have been to the Poles, and how "blind" to history the Poles must be to support Ukraine.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
So about that large weapon delivery from Germany

https://twitter.com/louiswesten/status/1509260171494793220

https://twitter.com/robinalexander_/status/1509573346232524809


It was mostly a politician giving a (false) story to a very supportive paper that turned out to be more fake than news.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Crow Buddy posted:

Poor Hunter, he just wanted to do blow and rail hookers and he ends up being the 21st century's Dr. Moriarty.

I mean, if you look at it from the other way he's pretty lucky. All he does is hookers and blow and yet he keeps getting a reputation as a Machiavellian mastermind. No work required yet everyone thinks he's a genius!

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005




Pepe Silvia!

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

It was suspected, and maybe there was prior evidence I hadn't seen but I thought this was interesting - the Russians are using super out dated maps
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1509581490585227265?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
what's crazy to me is the 're-printed in 2007' part - it doesn't appear to have been updated at all if the conditions shown are the same as in 1990...

Also this is another story from Mariupol - Russian artillerymen were calling in their firing positions on open comms and osint people figured out the coordinate system that Russia is still using is from the Soviet era, and used 1980's Soviet maps to determine the location of the strikes.
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1509545576593084427?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
I saw the twitter thread, but the article is a better read.

D34THROW
Jan 29, 2012

RETAIL RETAIL LISTEN TO ME BITCH ABOUT RETAIL
:rant:

Gatts posted:

Again? Like is he next in line after Soros and Hillary?

I meant more with this conspiracy д-скоро (assuming Q has an equivalent in Russia) bullshit dribbling from the mouths of whackos :v:

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Things are accellerating in the north west.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509581356669763588?s=20&t=eBK3dO1vQe45DmDcamM8uA
By "things" I mean "the Ukrainian military getting their territory back"

And they're doing the correct logistics stuff to make it easier to keep
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509395817844514825?s=20&t=eBK3dO1vQe45DmDcamM8uA
Logistics :heysexy:

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

He also mentioned having a loader had some other advantages people don't really think about when purely comparing tanks based on theoretical statistics. Mainly, just having an extra guy around can be a huge help when it comes to things like maintenance, standing watch, other workload related things, etc... With an autoloader you have to do all that with three dudes instead of four and the workload can increase proportionally.

Yeah I think there's a lot of support for having four crew members in a 65+ t main battle tank. It goes beyond simply loading the cannon, there's a bunch of good reasons to do it. Even in a future design with an autoloader to better deal with larger ammo* (for example if they adopt the larger 130 mm smoothbore that Rheinmetall is working on), I think they'll keep the fourth crew member around and convert them into a systems operator to command drones, coordinate with data networks, and perform other tasks that can help reduce the workload on the commander. Though the argument that instead a tank company should have three-man crews with an organic field maintenance team is probably a reasonable one.

* As weight and size increases, human loaders start to reach limits of how quickly and repeatedly they can physically move the ammunition. When the M1 Abrams first came out, it used 18.6 kg rounds that were 627 mm long. Now it's up past 22.3 kg rounds that are 892 mm in length (in fact the newest ones are probably even larger). The Rheinmetall 130 mm prototype uses 30 kg rounds that are 1300 mm in length. Lethality requirements might soon end up necessitating an autoloader, even if doctrine doesn't change.

https://youtu.be/J8Sa_q-Lz6g

Kaal fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Mar 31, 2022

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

GaussianCopula posted:

It was mostly a politician giving a (false) story to a very supportive paper that turned out to be more fake than news.

You gotta spell this out for me, I can't access the article.

RottenK
Feb 17, 2011

Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE
every time there's news about ukraine getting more weapons you get replies from russia supporters jerking off about how it's just going to get destroyed by kalibr missiles

do these people think that's it's some wonder weapon that can be used in any situation for any target forever at no cost and will always win russia all wars

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Things keep happening - apparently due to the failure of negotiations between Japan and Russia on a peace treaty Japan is potentially going to declare the Kuril Islands as 'illegally occupied' again.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1509566387110522882?s=20&t=eBK3dO1vQe45DmDcamM8uA
EMPR source but I found the original Kyodo News article: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...ds=Kurils,Kuril

quote:

Japan will once again describe Russia's decades-long hold over a string of disputed northern islands as an "illegal occupation" in an annual foreign policy report, a draft showed Thursday, as bilateral ties sour following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The classification will appear for the first time since 2003, reflecting Tokyo's shift away from a conciliatory policy stance towards Moscow, taken in the hope that progress in negotiations over the islands off Hokkaido could lead to their return in the future, to a more hostile position.

The draft of the Diplomatic Bluebook for 2022 was obtained by Kyodo News.
...
The 2019 bluebook dropped the sentence "the four northern islands belong to Japan" that had been used until 2018, in an apparent effort to appease the Kremlin. Starting in 2020, the report has said Japan has "sovereignty" over the islands.

In 1956, Japan and the Soviet Union signed a joint declaration that ended the state of war between the two countries and restored diplomatic ties.

The Soviet Union agreed then to return Shikotan and Habomai after a peace treaty is concluded. Japan has maintained its position that it aims to sign a peace treaty after the territorial issue is solved.

The article has a lot of background on the history/changing status of the dispute in recent years.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

the popes toes posted:

Ah, interestingly that tracks with a lot of recent "bad twitter" takes that have just sprung up about how historically barbaric the Ukrainians have been to the Poles, and how "blind" to history the Poles must be to support Ukraine.
It's not exactly incorrect but the trolls probably don't realize that everyone but the russians moved on and looks towards the future, nobody in Europe relives WW2 or older history, because we all interact with each other all the time

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

KitConstantine posted:

It was suspected, and maybe there was prior evidence I hadn't seen but I thought this was interesting - the Russians are using super out dated maps
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1509581490585227265?s=20&t=NMd-9Sb_KolukLwYgWPBRA
what's crazy to me is the 're-printed in 2007' part - it doesn't appear to have been updated at all if the conditions shown are the same as in 1990...

Ah, the updating in 2007 would actually make sense - in 2007 the GLONASS PZ-90 datum (that is, where their GNSS reckons the center of the Earth to be) was updated to more closely match global WGS 84 standards. If they'd been using an older datum before then then their GNSS coordinates wouldn't have matched what they were seeing on the map, so even if nothing else changed adjusting the coordinates to match the new 2007 datum would have made sense. That being said, a further update to the PZ-90 datum came out in 2013 but perhaps that was a smaller change that wouldn't have made as much of a navigational difference. And of course, updating the coordinates alone without checking conditions on the ground isn't really ideal for map accuracy in general but I guess the Ukrainians weren't super interested in helping them update their military maps.

Either way, this certainly helps explain why those Russian troops from way back when were spotted bumbling around in circles getting lost in a Ukrainian city.

Edit:

mobby_6kl posted:

It's not exactly incorrect but the trolls probably don't realize that everyone but the russians moved on and looks towards the future, nobody in Europe relives WW2 or older history, because we all interact with each other all the time

I for one am extremely confused why Macron doesn't spend more time speaking of the perfidy of the vile Austrians after all their long history together. Also aren't we about due for a new Danish-Swedish War?

Tomn fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Mar 31, 2022

MrYenko
Jun 18, 2012

#2 isn't ALWAYS bad...

Doccers posted:

Nukes are the murder-suicide option. If Russia nukes Poland, their government will cease to exist. And I suspect the West will be able to handle that with conventional guided munitions

Russia spasming nuclear weapons while NATO takes them apart with conventional weapons instead of ending the world is a pretty grimdark reality that I had never previously considered. Thanks for that.

PerilPastry
Oct 10, 2012

KitConstantine posted:

Russia is continuing to talk poo poo about Poland, increasing frequency of talk.

Reading the actual articles, it's mostly about economics and how "Russophobia" is driving sanctions and policies that are completely unsustainable (to the Poles) as food and energy prices climb and more and more refugees flee into the EU. Essentially they're saying that Poland and any other countries inspired by similar policies are putting geopolitical biases ahead of the needs of their own people and risk committing economic suicide

Basically it seems to amount to a bunch of projection and :ironicat:

d64
Jan 15, 2003
Many news sites have reported that 130000+ conscripts have been called into service, noting Russia is saying it is not an action related to the war but routine biannual intake of conscripts. All the articles I checked left it vague if this matches previous years, i.e. if these are usual numbers for conscripts taken in in the spring. Anyone have an idea?

Not looking for speculation on how they surely will be pushed into the fire after two weeks of drills. Just if there's a source confirming that this is something that would be happening on every year.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

d64 posted:

Many news sites have reported that 130000+ conscripts have been called into service, noting Russia is saying it is not an action related to the war but routine biannual intake of conscripts. All the articles I checked left it vague if this matches previous years, i.e. if these are usual numbers for conscripts taken in in the spring. Anyone have an idea?

Not looking for speculation on how they surely will be pushed into the fire after two weeks of drills. Just if there's a source confirming that this is something that would be happening on every year.

They have mandatory conscription so the only exceptional thing in this is that it happens during an active land war in Ukraine. And they might be less inclined to allow "medical exception" classifications because of bribing off the officers doing the paperwork.

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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

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PerilPastry posted:

Reading the actual articles, it's mostly about economics and how "Russophobia" is driving sanctions and policies that are completely unsustainable (to the Poles) as food and energy prices climb and more and more refugees flee into the EU. Essentially they're saying that Poland and any other countries inspired by similar policies are putting geopolitical biases ahead of the needs of their own people and risk committing economic suicide


This literally describes Russia for the past 10 years.

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