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Budzilla posted:It was brought up before that the Polish Mig29s might have NATO electronics and they might have to be removed before being handed over. But there are probably other reasons too. Isn't there also a transportation issue? Flying an airplane into a war zone immediately targets it as NATO's but a tank can kinda just roll over or come on a train and Russia would be MORE reluctant to hit a Polish train? Or am I making no sense?
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Apr 2, 2022 16:16
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Chalks posted:This seems to be an unrelated (failed?) missile strike. The implication is that it was actually a Russian missile that fell way short of its target and hit Russian territory. Yeah, IIRC, it's a ballistic missile that crashed.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:18
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Chalks posted:This seems to be an unrelated (failed?) missile strike. The implication is that it was actually a Russian missile that fell way short of its target and hit Russian territory. Yeah especially cause there's plenty of video evidence that the attack on the Belgorod fuel depot was conducted by helicopters shooting at a "point blank" range and not with a long range missile strike.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:19
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Chalks posted:This seems to be an unrelated (failed?) missile strike. The implication is that it was actually a Russian missile that fell way short of its target and hit Russian territory. quote:Missile hit road near Nikolske village in Belgorod region this morning Missile hit road near Nikolske village in Belgorod region this morning
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Apr 2, 2022 16:20
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gay picnic defence posted:It's probably safer to ramp it up slowly over time. If they jump straight to giving Ukraine NATO aircraft that is a pretty big and sudden escalation and Russia might do something drastic (not that the nation invading it's neighbor has any right to complain about escalation). There are four issues I see. The first, and primary issue is that the Ukrainian Army and Air Force has little to no experience operating this type of NATO equipment. Flying an F-16 or driving an Abrahams is not the same thing as firing a MANPAD or a portable anti-tank missile system. While Ukrainian pilots might have some hours on F-15s or F-16s, training pilots to be combat capable on new air frames like this takes 4 to 6 months, not three weeks. As far as I know Ukrainian forces have zero experience driving M1A2’s, and in the case of both tanks and air frames it is more than the people flying/driving the vehicles needing training. You also have to keep in mind that the people who would maintain these weapon systems would need training as well. The second issue is I am not so sure the US has a bunch of F-16s and F-15s to essentially throw away by giving them to the Ukrainian Air Force. From a costs perspective it makes more sense to give these American air frames to NATO countries with former Soviet air craft (like the Mig-29), who can in turn hand over the Soviet air craft the Ukrainian pilots already know how to fly. Relatedly, in order to hand over Abrahams the US would have to have a ready stockpile of export variant M1A2s—the United States does not supply American M1A2s with the incredibly secret depleted uranium armor scheme to any country, let alone a country fighting a war against a primary potential US adversary with the potential ability to duplicate spent uranium armor. The third issue, which is related to the NATO air frames is that, in addition to these air craft, the US would have to send over the missile systems these air craft use or those air craft would be useless to Ukraine. Finally there is the geopolitical aspect of this where the US does not want to be seen to be handing over offensive weapon systems to Ukraine, lest they accidentally find themselves in the category of active belligerent.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:32
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Didn't see this posted yet - the Ukrainian military earlier today claimed that Russian troops are building up in the Transnistria region in preparation for a possible move towards Odesa. Moldova doesn't confirm https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510255842389639177?t=JJ9fswLqBCwo8ro5fLBngw&s=19 Something to keep an eye on - and that's probably why the Ukrainians mentioned it, because it appears someone is now https://twitter.com/mm0ndx/status/1510166820816367616?t=2sfa3KLugrEjLsP2bgXVLQ&s=19
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Apr 2, 2022 16:34
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How is Russia supplying their forces in transniestra given that any route in would have to go through either Ukraine or the EU+ Moldova?
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Apr 2, 2022 16:46
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i find troops coming from transnistria even less likely than belarus intervening. my understanding is most of them are not even russians, they are locals with russian passports. there's less than 2k of them supposedly.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:48
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Deteriorata posted:I don't see how this connects to the fuel depot attack. It could certainly be a failed cruise missile, but doesn't have to be related. That’s why I was so confused about the post, since I’ve seen those helicopters shoot their missions and flying away, and I figured it had to be referring to something else, but I wanted to make sure.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:51
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Vorenus posted:Re: nukes, from a technical standpoint, aren't there safeties to prevent whomever from just hijacking them? My understanding is that at least with US systems, you mostly have a list of pre-programmed options loaded into a computer, and without a series of proper authentications, the systems will just tell you to gently caress off. People who know a lot about how this works in an exact manner today cannot actually post about it for I think fairly obvious reasons. The classic, entertaining, slightly horrifying work on the evolution of control of nuclear weapons is Command and Control, by Erich Schlosser, which discusses a few US nuclear weapons safety incidents.
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Apr 2, 2022 16:52
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Yesterday Orban in his campaign closing speech announced that the "opposition is in league with Ukraine". Today we had Ukrainians protest against Putin and Orban in Budapest. So our state media reported on it as a "pro-war protest". 
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Apr 2, 2022 16:54
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1509968889794416642 Doesn't China simply not get it? Or they trying their best to remain neutral even if it's the lamest excuse?
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Apr 2, 2022 16:56
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Doesn't China simply not get it? Or they trying their best to remain neutral even if it's the lamest excuse? They want to protect their ability to gently caress with their own neighbors.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:05
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lol at China being unable to process people in the neighborhood independently not liking the raving maniac with the shotgun robbing and murdering people
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Apr 2, 2022 17:05
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a pipe smoking dog posted:How is Russia supplying their forces in transniestra given that any route in would have to go through either Ukraine or the EU+ Moldova? I think the theory is some of the Russians withdrawing may have fled south to Transniestra rather than Belarus https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1510173898679197697?t=CsfdI2Taj99MeyZdmdgutg&s=19 Brutal article btw. Edit: edited to remove the location reference. Wrong Trostyanets, there are quite a few in Ukraine turns out. Article is still good tho KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 17:08
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Doesn't China simply not get it? Or they trying their best to remain neutral even if it's the lamest excuse? This is one of the first direct interactions between XJP and European leaders on the topic; until now it has been relatively consequence-free to maintain that position It's true that Chinese pundit commentary both doesn't get it and genuinely feels that China's neutrality, if anything, not sufficiently considerate of Russia's legitimate concerns. Nonetheless, diplomatic messaging should not be ruled by pundit wisdom. One read is that anyone who may advise a wording that may be less noxious to Europeans has been sidelined in favour of those who, as in the Chinese press, argue for various scenarios that are 1) argued to be self-evidently rational and objectively good for humanity, and 2) by pure coincidence, convenient for China.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:08
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Doesn't China simply not get it? Or they trying their best to remain neutral even if it's the lamest excuse? It's pretty clear that the CCP agrees with the idea that "great nations" should have sphere's of influence within which they can bully their neighbors and client states to their heart's content. You ever wonder why every single one of China's neighbors hate them? They're not trying to stay neutral at all. They're trying to appear as though they're 'just neutral' but all of their actions so far have been in support of Putin and his imperial war. The really funny part is that the CCP seems to buy into the same goobeldygook worldview as the tankies in that they consider the USA to be the only nation on Earth exercising agency. The Europeans are leading this defensive movement, not dancing on Washington's puppet strings. Somehow the CCP can't grok that.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:09
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Doesn't China simply not get it? Or they trying their best to remain neutral even if it's the lamest excuse? If they stay neutral through the entirety of the hostilities, China winds up with the world's largest collection of natural resources as a client state entirely dependent on them for the basics of modern life. (Also they'll get to buy all of Russia's natural gas exports at bargain rates. Did you know Chinese power plants have trouble keeping the country powered? I wonder if cheap fuel would help with that.)
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Apr 2, 2022 17:12
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KitConstantine posted:There were Russian troops as far west as Trostyanets. I think the theory is some of the Russians withdrawing may have fled south to Transniestra rather than Belarus i do not think this is possible. maybe i am misunderstanding you but trostyanets is nowhere near transnistria and russian troops fleeing there would have to cross a massive amount of ukrainian-held territory and then sneak through the currently closed border. the answer to how russians supply their troops in ukraine is pretty simple - they are mostly locals with russian passports who work there like any other job. they have a massive cache of soviet-era ammunition that they can use, but largely don't. they don't need supplies from russia, they just buy stuff from the locals.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:14
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Mooseontheloose posted:Isn't there also a transportation issue? Flying an airplane into a war zone immediately targets it as NATO's but a tank can kinda just roll over or come on a train and Russia would be MORE reluctant to hit a Polish train? Perfect sense (to me). If you allow Ukrainian Pilots to fly the planes in from outside the airbase they take off from could be targeted, if you fly them in for the Ukrainians your pilots could get targeted. Handing the keys to truck/tank over at the border has less potential for escalation.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:15
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Vorenus posted:Re: nukes, from a technical standpoint, aren't there safeties to prevent whomever from just hijacking them? My understanding is that at least with US systems, you mostly have a list of pre-programmed options loaded into a computer, and without a series of proper authentications, the systems will just tell you to gently caress off. I mean, you are pretty spot on here... Without actually effort posting, I can give you a rough answer; basically, the use of strategic nuclear weapons requires two sets of codes. One set in possession of the US Air Force's Strategic Air Command (SAC) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the other follows POTUS (and the Vice President) around in the 'nuclear football.' If NORAD detects a strategic missile launch against the United States, North America, or NATO European allies, they contact POTUS and present him or her with a list of pre-planned potential responses. POTUS then would quickly selects one of these response options (he or she may have as little as 5 minutes depending on potential SSBN launches against Washington DC), breaks open the football and pulls the card the corresponds with that option. After POTUS breaks that card open, the code get read back to the SAC officer who would transmit both sets of codes to the missile silos. Once the missile silos are notified, the missile command officers have to verify the codes as authentic, then enter them into the launch computers. It then takes both missile command officers (there are always two on shift) simultaneously turning a key on opposite sides of the room--this is done so that it literally impossible for one officer alone to turn both launch keys--and the silo's ICBMs will launch at the pre-arranged targets associated with the launch code. The process for submarine launched missiles is very similar, requiring the captain and the first officer to verify a code as authentic, load it into a computer, and turn two keys for the launch to happen. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 17:21 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 17:15
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a pipe smoking dog posted:How is Russia supplying their forces in transniestra given that any route in would have to go through either Ukraine or the EU+ Moldova? It was brought up here a few times and the consensus is that they’re not resupplying those units in any way and they’re stuck with whatever they got a few months ago. Personally, seeing zero activity from those forces either in the news or on social media, I’d wager a guess that aside from a garrison, there’s currently no viable or notable Russian force in Transnistria.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:16
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KitConstantine posted:I think the theory is some of the Russians withdrawing may have fled south to Transniestra rather than Belarus From where? The group that tried to get round the back of Odessa before Ukraine recaptured Mykolaiv? They would have had to retreat across hundreds of miles of hostile territory to get to Transniestra and a bunch of exhausted retreating soldiers would make the supply situation even worse.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:16
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Concerned Citizen posted:i do not think this is possible. maybe i am misunderstanding you but trostyanets is nowhere near transnistria and russian troops fleeing there would have to cross a massive amount of ukrainian-held territory and then sneak through the currently closed border. I edited my post - theres a bunch of cities named Trostyanets in ukraine including one right by moldova - but I still think it's theoretically possible. Not sure if the Moldovan government manages the border at Transnistria since they're nominally independent. Either way it seems that it's likely a Ukrainian play for more intelligence coverage at that border. Also updated maps for those interested, including change of control https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1510283018912821253?t=Sfng9uQtKDxGlxkb8QyJ7g&s=19 Edit: thinking about it, it could also be the Ukrainians pushing the Moldovian government to do something about the Transnistria issue, or at least trying to get them to say they'll make sure Ukraine won't have to worry about that part of the border. Here's the UAF update where they mention it https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1510165030297292804?t=6lh5Tn3eDlVHUQ2X7eomxg&s=19 KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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Apr 2, 2022 17:18
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Morningwoodpecker posted:Perfect sense (to me). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL41oesVh9o
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Apr 2, 2022 17:20
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ZombieLenin posted:There are four issues I see. The first, and primary issue is that the Ukrainian Army and Air Force has little to no experience operating this type of NATO equipment. Modern tanks are super easy to operate in crew level. If NATO would outsource all past-crew level maintenance and logistics to “totally not NATO troops” I have a very firm belief that any Ukrainian tank crew that’s been stacking BMPs in action would pretty much require a PowerPoint lesson and about 3 hour block of hands-on instructions to start tearing up BGTs with an m1a2. They would take a while to get to the habit of having a loader aboard of course.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:30
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1509968889794416642 The most generous view of the Chinese statements from this are that they are playing dumb, otherwise they just seem stupid beyond belief.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:30
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Moldova should just straight crack transnistria ASAP. Have Ukraine help in the matter as Moldova and Ukraine futures are tired together regardless.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:31
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Megasabin posted:You should probably ask yourself if you are feelings are based completely on emotion or if you've done any actual research about the topic in previous wars. A claim that the Russian army is "uniquely evil" certainly sound naïve to me and is probably putting you on the path towards labeling Russians as subhumans like the person who got probated further down the page. Feeling disgusted about warcrimes is normal and good; using them to make generalizations and fuel a cycle of hate is bad. I agree that there is a risk of racism in these matters, and that is always something to be mindful of during and after a war. This does not preclude that specific armies can have a varying levels of endemic rape culture and other problems. It is very well documented that the Russian army has a horrific culture towards recruits. We know from the past that there is a direct link from the humiliation and mistreatment of army recruits to the severity and frequency of war crimes. Hence, they are not "uniquely evil" - rather they are depressingly falling into a known pattern. While it is of course absurd to disconnect the culture of an army with the culture of a nation - there are structural and historical factors explaining very well how the current conditions were allowed to remain. So it is perfectly valid to point out that the Russian army has a monstrous capacity and tolerance for war crimes (which is probably tempered in this war due to the cultural bonds with Ukraine - a war in the Baltics, Poland or Scandinavia would likely have resulted in worse behavior) - without in any way making a statement about this being endemic to the Russian culture or ethnicity. In addition to the unsanctioned (and tolerated to varying degrees by different officers) behavior, there is sadly also a strategic use of war crimes to further the political goals of Kremlin. This creates a dangerous synergy between the impulsive war crimes at the micro level and the highly orchestrated infliction of civilian suffering and death. The grunts will feel vindicated and encouraged by the overall strategy - and military command hierarchies will increasingly tolerate criminal behavior as it fits directly into the strategic plan. This is not something which is normal in modern peer warfare. The vast majority of conflicts involve an information war where both sides want to gain the moral high ground in the eyes of the international community. Many armies, if not most, have problems with war crimes - but outside of civil war, we generally don't see terror tactics and strategic-level scorched earth. Russia has for decades increasingly done this in one conflict after another. This is an exceptional problem. By all means we must avoid stereotypes, racism and cycles of hate. But the current behavior of the Russian military, at all levels, and sadly with fewer exceptions than one would wish, is increasingly showing us a doctrine of terror and cruelty. Even if there are explanations for this at the micro-level and rational goals at the macro-level, it is still what we consider 'evil'. Allowing such doctrines to remain unopposed is how cycles of hate are created. Ukraine and Russia had at the population-level, exceptionally good relations before this war. Regardless of how this war ends, that has been shattered. Which in itself is a crime against humanity. Putin's regime has proven itself abhorrent from an intellectual and emotional standpoint both. Resorting to threat of nuclear retribution against non-existential threats, complete disregard for the Geneva convention, using deception against civilians, abducting civilians, attacking hospitals and shelters, deceiving their own troops, enacting totalitarian laws of oppression, wildly jingoist propaganda on state-sponsored media, the list goes on and on. Russia went from an authoritarian and extremely flawed kleptocracy to a brutal ethno-nationalist dictatorship. Europe and the US are not without blame - not because of NATO expansionism - but by making much of Europe economic hostages to Russia through an unhealthy dependency on Russian natural gas. Most of the world is to blame by over and over giving trying to appease the pride of Kremlin and not making it clear they are no longer a superpower, or even a great power - even if they are a nuclear power. Intelligence agencies, scholars and civil administrations across the world have warned about the rise of Russian ethno-nationalism and belligerence. This war is not just any yet another conflict to be analyzed, contextualized and relativized. This war is the culmination of a terrible trajectory - and the event that caused the Kremlin mask to drop, revealing the monster beneath. We must be allowed to abhor the rise of fascism and ethno-nationalist totalitarianism. I have great regard and love for Russian culture and the Russian people, on a historic, collective and personal level - but I do still claim the right to also greatly oppose their regime and many of the institutions of the Russian state. Hate is not a healthy emotion. But anger, frustration and disgust are perfectly valid reactions to what is happening now - and has been building for a long time. I am shameful to not been a stronger voice for action when it was Aleppo being targeted and not Mariupol. I consider myself a well-informed individual, but in hindsight I failed at recognizing the scale and impact of what was happening back then. I hope I am not the only one - not just on a personal level, but on a collective level. The world failed Syria. Not that it is unique among wars and conflicts in warranting a stronger and better reaction from the world - but I do think it is an exceptional case of negligence and almost willful refusal to see clearly. TL;DR - strong opposition and reaction - emotional as well as intellectual - are perfectly valid responses to the crimes committed by the Russian Army. It is possible to have such reactions, and not be a racist and/or myopic jingoist.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:35
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Moldova should just straight crack transnistria ASAP. Have Ukraine help in the matter as Moldova and Ukraine futures are tired together regardless. moldova has practically no military to speak of and is probably not capable of doing this, and anyway it would cause a huge humanitarian disaster to restart that war. the situation is also complicated by the fact that transnistria actually has had a decent relationship with ukraine lately and there are a lot of cultural/family connections across the border.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:36
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GSV gently caress Your God posted:The most generous view of the Chinese statements from this are that they are playing dumb, otherwise they just seem stupid beyond belief. The explanation that the Chinese ambassador in the UK gave to BBC news a couple weeks back was essentially that China see's itself as the sensible adult that isn't getting involved in a childish squabble. Basically saying that by not picking sides, the world will look at China when this is over as the pragmatic and wise nation that didn't demean itself by getting embroiled in petty feuds. That was the outward message at lease and likely not the summation of what China thinks internally, I'm sure they don't want to lose Russias trade and are looking at how they can come out ahead globally but it was an interesting take.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:38
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btw, whats with the thread title of 'elder scrolls sized crowd'? What is the reference here I am missing, and the context?
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Apr 2, 2022 17:47
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Valtonen posted:Modern tanks are super easy to operate in crew level. If NATO would outsource all past-crew level maintenance and logistics to “totally not NATO troops” I have a very firm belief that any Ukrainian tank crew that’s been stacking BMPs in action would pretty much require a PowerPoint lesson and about 3 hour block of hands-on instructions to start tearing up BGTs with an m1a2. They would take a while to get to the habit of having a loader aboard of course. It takes more than a couple of hours to master a complex vehicle in a computer game. I do not think real life has infinite respawns
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Apr 2, 2022 17:48
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Cimber posted:btw, whats with the thread title of 'elder scrolls sized crowd'? What is the reference here I am missing, and the context? Russians put out a propaganda video of a "liberated village," the local attendance was described as such.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:51
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Cimber posted:btw, whats with the thread title of 'elder scrolls sized crowd'? What is the reference here I am missing, and the context? There was a pro-russia protest organized in.... Mariupol?... where four locals showed up and waved Russian flags in front of a bombed apartment block, shouting thank you for freeing us to the soldiers. A humorous comparison was drawn between the size of this protest, and the number of NPCs who form a crowd in popular video game Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:53
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Cimber posted:btw, whats with the thread title of 'elder scrolls sized crowd'? What is the reference here I am missing, and the context? When the Russians started taking suburbs of Mariupol, they did some quick on-site propaganda of a couple soldiers planting the Russian flag, being cheered on by four pensioners. Russia was treating the whole thing as the fall of Berlin with it's waving of the Soviet flag from the Reichstag.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:53
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kemikalkadet posted:The explanation that the Chinese ambassador in the UK gave to BBC news a couple weeks back was essentially that China see's itself as the sensible adult that isn't getting involved in a childish squabble. Basically saying that by not picking sides, the world will look at China when this is over as the pragmatic and wise nation that didn't demean itself by getting embroiled in petty feuds. It would be an interesting take if it was genuine. But then, it's impressive that they consider this a childish squabble they should remain neutral about, when they strongly (and rightfully imho) condemned GWB's adventures in Iraq in 2003. I mean... quote:Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao held talks with his visiting Pakistani counterpart Mil' Zafarullah Khan Jamali in Beijing on March 24, 2003. The two leaders exchanged views on bilateral relations and the international situation. (source: https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/ceun/eng/chinaandun/securitycouncil/regionalhotspots/mideast/ylk/t537117.htm) Back then, they were all about sovereignty and territorial integrity.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:53
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Cimber posted:btw, whats with the thread title of 'elder scrolls sized crowd'? What is the reference here I am missing, and the context? There was a video a while back of a handful of mooks in Mariupol raising the Russian flag over some building and essentially declaring it liberated from Nazis. The “crowd” watching was like maybe a dozen people, tops - so like “large crowds” in Elder Scrolls games. SirTagz posted:It takes more than a couple of hours to master a complex vehicle in a computer game. I do not think real life has infinite respawns It may be worth noting that Valtonen is an actual tanker and has hands-on experience with the tanks in question.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:54
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If nothing else, China won't say anything that denies their given right to invade Taiwan at some point in the future.
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Apr 2, 2022 17:54
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Mystic Mongol posted:If they stay neutral through the entirety of the hostilities, China winds up with the world's largest collection of natural resources as a client state entirely dependent on them for the basics of modern life. The whole situation is astoundingly beneficial to China. Along with the dirt cheap resources, they can sell manufactured good to Russia at an inflated price, and gets to watch Russia burn those goods sending them into a meat grinder which also eats European and American assets (although not as much). As long as they play "neutral", they won't suffer any particular blowback either while their most pressing geopolitical rivals are weakened. I can't imagine China will ever feel threatened by Russia again after this debacle. Bug Squash fucked around with this message at 17:59 on Apr 2, 2022 |
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