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VitalSigns posted:Well most Millennials are no longer in school (how old do you think Millennials are), but yes if a student's tuition goes up that is inflation. No, that is a price increase for an individual. Inflation is a baseline increase in the cost of a good relative to the dollar. If I go to a cheaper school, then I didn't cause deflation. If housing in San Francisco rises 50%, but everywhere else in the country they rise 2%, then there was not a 50% inflation rate in housing. Inflation and price increases are not the same thing. VitalSigns posted:Well most Millennials are no longer in school (how old do you think Millennials are), but yes if a student's tuition goes up that is inflation. If you aren't including tuition in your inflation calculation, that doesn't mean they didn't experience inflation, it means your calculated rate isn't accurate for that person. The CPI is controversial and has a lot of issues (a big one is the effect of Moore's law: you can get terabytes of hard drive storage for a couple hundred bucks, which would have cost millions in 1980, does this mean that every family has millions of dollars more effective purchasing power now? No, because probably zero families were spending millions of dollars on massive home hard drives in the 80s) You keep mixing up terms. Purchasing power and inflation adjusted income are two different things. Two people can have the same inflation adjusted income, but if one of them lives in San Francisco and another lives in Huntsville, Alabama, then they will have very different purchasing power despite having the same inflation adjusted income. Nobody claimed that purchasing power was the same between Millennials and Boomers. You are correct that there are concerns different weighting mechanics of CPI, but there isn't a concern about it trying to measure something else entirely.
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Apr 4, 2022 20:36
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:You keep mixing up terms. Purchasing power is a function of inflation. If you have poor purchasing power despite rising wages, but you consider inflation "low", then you have miscalculated inflation.
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Apr 4, 2022 20:43
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Jaxyon posted:Purchasing power is a function of inflation. Inflation is typically calculated on a country-wide basis, not on a neighborhood (or an individual person) basis. Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Apr 4, 2022 |
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Apr 4, 2022 20:44
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plogo posted:Purchasing power and inflation adjusted wages are the same thing, however constructing the proper inflation basket is a never ending matter of dispute. Yes this a perfectly succinct way of putting it, thank you Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:No, that is a price increase for an individual. Inflation is a baseline increase in the cost of a good relative to the dollar. If I go to a cheaper school, then I didn't cause deflation. Nobody said anything about going to different schools Although the CPI does attempt to take substitution into account so actually yes according to the CPI formula if consumers are substituting a cheaper good when prices rise it does cause deflation, although it's debated whether they should be doing this or not (coincidentally it seems like the people pushing for more of this kind of thing are also the ones who want lower cost of living increases for people on social security etc)
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Apr 4, 2022 20:47
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plogo posted:Purchasing power and inflation adjusted wages are the same thing, however constructing the proper inflation basket is a never ending matter of dispute. They aren't. You can do the literal dictionary examples to make it as simple as possible. Inflation is highly related to purchasing power, but they aren't the same thing. quote:Purchasing power loss/gain is an increase or decrease in how much consumers can buy with a given amount of money. Consumers lose purchasing power when prices increase and gain purchasing power when prices decrease. Causes of purchasing power loss include government regulations, inflation, and natural and manmade disasters. quote:Inflation is tightly bound up with purchasing power, but they are two distinct concepts. quote:In reality, prices change at different paces. Some, such as the prices of traded commodities, change every day; others, such as wages established by contracts, take longer to adjust (or are “sticky,” in economic parlance). In an inflationary environment, unevenly rising prices inevitably reduce the purchasing power of some consumers. quote:Inflation measures how prices for goods and services increase over time. But purchasing power looks at the flip side — how much can a single unit of currency buy? Purchase power is a measure of how many goods or services you can buy with a unit of currency. quote:Relative purchasing power between two individuals is impacted by inflation, regional costs of living, government subsidies and policies, and credit or debt servicing ability.
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Apr 4, 2022 20:47
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This is hilarious: Someone at DecisionDeskHQ created a downloadable & searchable database of political fundraising emails. PYF title; mine is "My son, the social justice advocate" eta: Jesus, Crist even sounds like a lose in his email titles: "The only way we can compete with Gov. DeSantis’s massive war chest" Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Apr 4, 2022 |
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Apr 4, 2022 20:48
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Willa Rogers posted:This is hilarious: Someone at DecisionDeskHQ created a downloadable & searchable database of political fundraising emails. This is the most important email we've ever sent you
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Apr 4, 2022 20:52
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They aren't. You can do the literal dictionary examples to make it as simple as possible. Now you're trying to talk about purchasing power parity, how far a dollar goes in Ohio vs New York today, totally different subject
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Apr 4, 2022 20:57
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Crossover with the police thread, but here's long twitter thread about how when crime shoots up under a "tough on crime" DA, everybody reacts very differently than when it shoots up under a reformer: https://twitter.com/kalven/status/1500957650124611584 basically, https://twitter.com/kalven/status/1500957664850833409
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Apr 4, 2022 21:03
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They aren't. You can do the literal dictionary examples to make it as simple as possible. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Inflation measures how prices for goods and services increase over time. But purchasing power looks at the flip side — how much can a single unit of currency buy? Purchase power is a measure of how many goods or services you can buy with a unit of currency. Ok, so sure, purchasing power is the index and inflation is the rate of change of the index. The point is, the disagreement you have with VitalSigns is entirely based on differing ideas what matters for price indexes and how changes to the price index should be calculated, not a fundamental misunderstanding about the difference between real and nominal prices.
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Apr 4, 2022 21:07
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Sharkie posted:Are they aware of how strong our economy is? That's what I keep hearing, even from a lot of people in this thread. Who are we to believe? The charts and graphs or our drat lying eyes that look at our bank accounts? Let's cede for a second that by all traditional measures "the economy" is on loving fire. What does any of that mean or amount to when the only thing burning for 3/4 of the population is their loving money? When people are noticeably going broke and losing economic ground every month, what the gently caress good does it do to point to a bunch of numbers telling them that "well, no, actually you're doing loving fantastic!" and that our dumb minds just can't see it. Maybe they're right. Maybe this nebulous idea of what we call the economy has never been better. If that's the case, we are in deep DEEP poo poo as a nation. Lib and let die posted:This is the most important email we've ever sent you "Please send us some money" BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Apr 4, 2022 |
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Apr 4, 2022 21:10
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Jaxyon posted:Crossover with the police thread, but here's long twitter thread about how when crime shoots up under a "tough on crime" DA, everybody reacts very differently than when it shoots up under a reformer: https://mobile.twitter.com/kalven/status/1500957656768339968 Lol it's like he's lurking USPOL
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Apr 4, 2022 21:12
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plogo posted:Ok, so sure, purchasing power is the index and inflation is the rate of change of the index. The original dispute was because he said, "they are the same thing" and "if a student's tuition goes up that is inflation." They are not. I specifically acknowledged that there are different ideas to how the price index should be calculated, but they are different concepts. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:You are correct that there are concerns different weighting mechanics of CPI, but there isn't a concern about it trying to measure something else entirely. Another very basic example is inflation does not impact purchasing power when nominal interest rates are involved. If the dollar loses 2% of its value against everything, except for housing, where it increases 50%, then if you have a fixed rate mortgage your purchasing power is impacted by 2%. If you are a renter, then your purchasing power is impacted by 51.8% Even though, as long as they were using the same currency, they would be subject to the same inflation rate.
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Apr 4, 2022 21:16
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No the original disagreement was that you said something that makes no sensequote:Millennials actually have higher inflation adjusted earnings than Boomers did when they were the same age, but the cost of housing, school, and healthcare outpace the increased earnings. So, a portion of them will have even more disposable income than Boomers. If prices of necessary goods are outpacing "increased" earnings adjusted for inflation then the basket of goods you're using to estimate inflation isn't chosen or weighted properly because it isn't reflecting the actual cost of living of the average person You're avoiding the point and getting into the weeds of pedantic edge cases which have nothing to do with the point (cost of borrowing is not the reason Millennials are having a harder time affording housing or healthcare).
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Apr 4, 2022 21:27
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The original dispute was because he said, "they are the same thing" and "if a student's tuition goes up that is inflation." This is demonstrating that 2% inflation and 50% increase in housing cost will have different effects on the purchasing power of someone renting vs. someone with a mortgage, which is different from the effect on a broad index of purchasing power. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Yes, they do. You're mixing up inflation adjusted earnings with real income. Look, this is the thing that got me going. Philosophically, I think that most of the inflation indexes is are fine, you just need to know when to use them, so in that sense I'm probably closer to you than vital signs. plogo fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 4, 2022 21:41
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RIP Ambassador Garcetti.quote:Chuck Schumer’s team is privately acknowledging to Senate Democrats that Eric Garcetti doesn’t currently have 50 votes within their caucus to be confirmed as ambassador to India, congressional aides tell Axios.
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Apr 4, 2022 21:42
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BiggerBoat posted:That's what I keep hearing, even from a lot of people in this thread. Who are we to believe? The charts and graphs or our drat lying eyes that look at our bank accounts? Let's cede for a second that by all traditional measures "the economy" is on loving fire. What does any of that mean or amount to when the only thing burning for 3/4 of the population is their loving money? The funny thing is that in the last decade I've heard exactly the same thing from people who are continuing to struggle despite "an improving economy" and from people who are genuinely becoming more comfortable and secure year by year. It's really reminiscent of how even when the 1980s crime wave gave way to 25 years of steadily dropping crime rates (coupled with some decaying areas and lots sensationalist media about crime that still occurred and still hurt people) did absolutely nothing to make people feel more comfortable or safe, whether their neighborhoods were becoming safer or not. Crime rates and perception of crime were decoupled. I mean, I'm not saying this is all an illusion at all. The problems are real. Just that even people who aren't really less fiscally secure than they were ten years ago have become more acutely aware of how easily it can all go away than they used to be. Even if tomorrow wages climbed and inflation plummeted, that wouldn't change any time soon, and that's likely to cause problems in the same way that it causes problems when people are convinced the streets are ruled by criminals like never before.
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Apr 4, 2022 21:51
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Lib and let die posted:This is the most important email we've ever sent you forgive me
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Apr 4, 2022 22:11
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Committee deadlocked, although Jackson wouldn't be the first judge to be rejected by the judiciary committee but confirmed anyway https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1511077402675396623
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Apr 4, 2022 23:05
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She’s getting confirmed. Collins and Manchin are on board so even if Sinema decides to be a jerk (maybe over the title 42 thing) she still can’t stop her appointment.
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Apr 4, 2022 23:11
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I wouldn't count on Collins' vote if Sinema isn't on board. Collins is obviously taking a hall pass, she's not going to be the deciding vote to confirm. That said Collins saying she'd vote to confirm is a good sign that they know Sinema is voting yes, because the hall pass is only available if confirmation is inevitable anyway.
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Apr 4, 2022 23:21
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BiggerBoat posted:That's what I keep hearing, even from a lot of people in this thread. Who are we to believe? The charts and graphs or our drat lying eyes that look at our bank accounts? Let's cede for a second that by all traditional measures "the economy" is on loving fire. What does any of that mean or amount to when the only thing burning for 3/4 of the population is their loving money? There's charts and graphs for the actual economic issues people are facing right now too, y'know. The reason politicians keep saying the economy is good is because, as politicians in power during an election year, they're emphasizing the numbers that look good and avoiding the numbers that look bad. Instead of dismissively assuming the data is lying, try getting takes from sources who don't have a clear stake in the interpretation of the data.
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Apr 4, 2022 23:48
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VitalSigns posted:I wouldn't count on Collins' vote if Sinema isn't on board. Collins is obviously taking a hall pass, she's not going to be the deciding vote to confirm. Imagine needing a hall pass to vote for someone obviously qualified you already voted for when the court won't even shift.
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Apr 5, 2022 00:09
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Well it’s a done deal now. Looks like she will get 53 votes. https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1511117679263899652
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Apr 5, 2022 00:11
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https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1511110887079387141 Wow what an rear end in a top hat holy poo poo
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Apr 5, 2022 00:20
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VitalSigns posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1511110887079387141 it is weird to see a senator being even vaguely honest about what supreme court nominations are, given the amount of weight they're planning on putting on the pretense it's more than that going forward
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Apr 5, 2022 00:29
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Willa Rogers posted:This is hilarious: Someone at DecisionDeskHQ created a downloadable & searchable database of political fundraising emails. Did you catch Kim's message from earlier today, Poster? With just a few hours left until our first FEC end-of-quarter fundraising deadline of the election year, we still haven't reached our fundraising goal. We need the support of this grassroots team to help push us over the finish line and ensure we have the resources to defend Kim's seat and our Democratic House majority. Will you rush a donation before midnight to help us reach our goal and end the first quarter of the election year strong?
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Apr 5, 2022 01:26
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Willa Rogers posted:This is hilarious: Someone at DecisionDeskHQ created a downloadable & searchable database of political fundraising emails. Sounds like decision desk just put together a database to train an AI that's about to put every lanyard out of business.
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Apr 5, 2022 01:33
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Neat, I just started learning pytorch and need something to feed my chatbot with.
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Apr 5, 2022 02:13
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Gumball Gumption posted:Sounds like decision desk just put together a database to train an AI that's about to put every lanyard out of business. Will my chatbot just finished das Kapital so I'm going to go ahead and feed it all these political emails so that it can become more Soviet
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Apr 5, 2022 02:19
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:it is weird to see a senator being even vaguely honest about what supreme court nominations are, given the amount of weight they're planning on putting on the pretense it's more than that going forward Yeah. Reading that I’m like…confused about the controversy.
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Apr 5, 2022 02:45
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VitalSigns posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1511110887079387141 What it is with South Carolina and sending the absolute most hateable people to the United States Senate?
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Apr 5, 2022 05:41
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*gestures wildly at Kentucky*
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Apr 5, 2022 06:07
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punk rebel ecks posted:Yeah. Reading that I’m like…confused about the controversy. i mean, it's a TREMENDOUS dick move by senatorial standards to come out and say "yeah you're wholly qualified, but gently caress you I'm voting against you anyway because we disagree ideologically" both the senate and the supreme court as institutions were designed with the understanding nobody in either would ever think that, let alone say it aloud as the justification for their actions
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Apr 5, 2022 06:47
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Abner Assington posted:*gestures wildly at Kentucky* I dunno, there's something just slightly more evil about Tim Scott and Lindsay Graham being a black man and a barely closeted gay man respectively who are both actively working to make the lives of other black and LGBT+ people worse and/or non-existent, compared to Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul who are just two general purpose anti-existences who aren't betraying anything reflected in themselves while they work to rid the world of all light and warmth and joy. nine-gear crow fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 06:54
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:i mean, it's a TREMENDOUS dick move by senatorial standards to come out and say "yeah you're wholly qualified, but gently caress you I'm voting against you anyway because we disagree ideologically" It's only surprising to modern standards. Historically parties have had no problem with being open about the political nature of controlling the court.
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Apr 5, 2022 07:15
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BiggerBoat posted:That's what I keep hearing, even from a lot of people in this thread. Who are we to believe? The charts and graphs or our drat lying eyes that look at our bank accounts? Let's cede for a second that by all traditional measures "the economy" is on loving fire. What does any of that mean or amount to when the only thing burning for 3/4 of the population is their loving money? It shows that the ruling classes are literally living in a different world from the rest of us. And that's the charitable explanation. The alternative is that they know they're lying and think we're all incredibly stupid.
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Apr 5, 2022 07:22
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:i mean, it's a TREMENDOUS dick move by senatorial standards to come out and say "yeah you're wholly qualified, but gently caress you I'm voting against you anyway because we disagree ideologically" I understand but that’s not how politics work.
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Apr 5, 2022 07:55
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Main Paineframe posted:There's charts and graphs for the actual economic issues people are facing right now too, y'know. I wasn't trying to imply that the charts, graphs and info were lying so much as meaningless to most people. It's like your team getting its rear end kicked 21-3 at halftime and the coach says you're actually winning because you gained a few more yards than than the other team. Or losing a baseball 6-1 but celebrating because you got more hits. Stumbled upon this today where asitting US congress member credits Trump with finding and killing Bin Laden https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/03/opinions/lisa-mcclain-trump-bin-laden-obeidallah/index.html quote:GOP Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan was apparently so desperate to suck up to Donald Trump at his rally this weekend in her state that she falsely boasted to the crowd of adoring Trump fans that the former President had “caught Osama bin Laden.” In reality, bin Laden was killed on May 2, 2011, when President Barack Obama was in the White House and Trump was hosting the season of “The Celebrity Apprentice” featuring Gary Busey and Meat Loaf.
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Apr 5, 2022 12:01
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The First Step Act reduced the crack and cocaine sentencing disparity from 100:1 to 18:1 in 2018. The EQUAL act would eliminate it entirely. 11 Senate Republicans said they would support it, which is enough to overcome a filibuster. https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1511329051914481664 The demographics of each party have change pretty significantly in the last 12 years according to NBC's new poll. Democrats gained 28 points with women with college degrees. But, they also lost 21 points with men without college degrees. https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1511321280548675590 Also, the U.N. is opening a war crimes investigation into Russia after they killed hundreds of civilians, including many who were bound and shot at close range, during a retreat from Bucha. France, the U.S., Ukraine, the E.U. as an organization, Poland, Canada, Japan, Korea, Germany, the U.K., and 31 other countries all have either opened their own investigations as well or say they are supporting the U.N. decision. Once Putin turns himself in to the ICC, the war will probably be over. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/ru...a8zfop?mod=e2tw
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Apr 5, 2022 14:10
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