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The projection continues https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1511332829254148102?s=20&t=RwaOxXiv0htINuWwunEkYQ
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Apr 5, 2022 14:32
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Edit: Beaten by literal seconds! Tennessee is about to pass a separate "straights only" version of marriage in the state with no age limits. It's unclear what the point of this actually is, since priests aren't mandated to perform gay marriage ceremonies. It seems to mostly be a ploy to form a "real marriage" club for straights only and leave gays with the "old and broken" form of traditional marriage. But, it doesn't actually remove any rights from gay couples or give any new rights to straight couples (except for the right to marry minors younger than 17 with parental consent). It's being voted out of committee this week where a majority of the committee members have already announced they support it. A majority of the Tennessee House supports it in principle, but some have issues with the lack of age limits. If they amend the bill to include age restrictions, it will likely pass the Tennessee House. It is unclear what the Tennessee Senate will do. https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1511333319648198658 quote:NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) – A proposal making its way through the state legislature would establish a common-law marriage between “one man” and “one woman.”
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Apr 5, 2022 14:32
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Once Putin turns himself in to the ICC I think the war's gonna have to be over before a hypothetical successor would then put him before that.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:35
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thechosenone posted:I think the war's gonna have to be over before a hypothetical successor would then put him before that. (It was a joke because Putin is not going to turn himself in to the ICC and he will die in office.) The ICC has no enforcement mechanism, so all it can do is issue judgements or wait for the person they convict to be out of power and have their own government decide to turn them in.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:39
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:(It was a joke because Putin is not going to turn himself in to the ICC and he will die in office.) Looking forward to the Hitler-style jokes about Putin being the only one to end the war by killing Putin.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:41
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Lib and let die posted:Looking forward to the Hitler-style jokes about Putin being the only one to end the war by killing Putin. It will be heart disease or cancer in 20 years. There isn't going to be a revolution, a democratic victory by an opponent, or World War III before Putin leaves office. And even if that somehow happened, Putin would never off himself. He'd just take his billions and go to exile in Belarus.
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Apr 5, 2022 14:48
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It will be heart disease or cancer in 20 years. Let me have this, dammit, Leon!
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Apr 5, 2022 15:02
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Congress is hitting their 4/20 celebration a little early. Three weed bills are getting voted on this week and next week. 1) Bill lifting restrictions on using marijuana for medical research. It overwhelmingly passed the House today 343-75, with every Democrat and 123 Republicans voting in favor. All 75 against were Republicans. It is expected to be filibustered in the Senate, but pass with Republican support. The Senate passed a slightly modified version by voice vote last week. Biden says he would sign. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1511338128774152197 quote:The House passed bipartisan legislation on Monday that would facilitate scientific research into the use of marijuana for medical purposes. 2) Full Decriminalization (MORE Act) Passed the House with all but two Democrats in favor and 3 Republicans in favor. The two Dems opposed were Henry Cueller (TX) and Chris Pappas (NH). Pappas says he doesn't oppose decriminalization, but that the bill won't pass the Senate and he wants the House to pass his version. The three Republicans in favor were Matt Gaetz (FL), Brian Mast (FL), and Tom McClintock (CA). It is expected to die in the Senate. 3 Senate Democrats are undecided, only 2 Republicans have said they will support, and multiple Republican Senators said they would filibuster. quote:The Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which removes cannabis from the list of scheduled substances and eliminates federal criminal penalties for marijuana possession, distribution, and production, ultimately passed by a 220-204 margin. 3) Marijuana Banking Reform (SAFE Banking Act) It passed the House earlier this year as part of the budget, but was stripped out in the Senate when Republicans objected. This is the bill that is most unclear what is going on with it. They are going to vote in the House and likely pass it again, but it is not clear how many Republicans would support it in the Senate. Some have expressed support of the idea in general, but not this specific bill. quote:This bill generally prohibits a federal banking regulator from penalizing a depository institution for providing banking services to a legitimate cannabis-related business. Prohibited penalties include terminating or limiting the deposit insurance or share insurance of a depository institution solely because the institution provides financial services to a legitimate cannabis-related business and prohibiting or otherwise discouraging a depository institution from offering financial services to such a business. https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1996 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 15:06
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Not too surprising given the previous statements and reporting, but they are extending the student loan moratorium again. Official announcement likely coming tomorrow. No set date confirmed, but it will be at least through August and they will probably extend it again through the election into next year. There's still nebulous plans to keep extending it until they "do something" about student loan debt. No comment on what qualifies as "doing something" or when it would happen, so it will likely just end up with them kicking the can down the road until next year. Not the worst thing in the world, but don't plan on knowing if there are going to be any actions on student debt or when payments might start back up until at least the end of the year. quote:Biden administration expected to extend student loan pause this week https://thehill.com/news/administration/3259485-biden-administration-expected-to-extend-student-loan-pause-this-week/ Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 18:50
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Not too surprising given the previous statements and reporting, but they are extending the student loan moratorium again. Official announcement likely coming tomorrow. So they are going to be delaying having to make any permanent decision on it until after they've lost control of congress?
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Apr 5, 2022 19:05
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Koos Group posted:So they are going to be delaying having to make any permanent decision on it until after they've lost control of congress? Isn't this being done via executive order? Congress should absolutely do something, but I believe Biden can do this without Congress.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:10
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Koos Group posted:So they are going to be delaying having to make any permanent decision on it until after they've lost control of congress? Probably! But, the permanent decision is what they can/will do executively. They already accepted that it is dead legislatively. So, whatever they are both legally able to do and actually want to do will be on the DOE/White House and congress won't really matter anyway. Extending the moratorium for another year isn't the worst thing in the world, but they are just kicking the can down the road over and over despite surely having some idea about what they actually want to do and can legally do at this point.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:10
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Koos Group posted:So they are going to be delaying having to make any permanent decision on it until after they've lost control of congress? That's a very doomeristic take, Koos. Presuming the Democrats plan to lose is far less optimistic than recognizing the absolute genius of the party and its consultant arm in using student debt relief extension as a fulcrum with which to apply pressure to voters in November of this year, The Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes (Redux Pt. II The Third). "We'd love to keep extending it indefinitely, or even better, to make it permanent, but you gotta vote for Officer Val Demmings!. Oh, you don't like her because she's a Retired Bae in Blue and you think cops are violent enforcers of the criminality of poverty and believe they should be forever kept far away from the levers of power? Gee, guess you don't really care about helping debt slaves!" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 5, 2022 19:11
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I wouldn't be shocked if it gets kicked until 2024. Biden obviously doesn't want to do this but the issue is important to the party. Either you use it to help win in 2024 or you hand the problem to a Republican who they assume would never support forgiving debt so then the Republicans get saddled with being the ones to actually restart things. Funny/Sad option of course is doing that and then having Republicans forgive the debt because they will get more from forgiving than not.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:14
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:i mean, it's a TREMENDOUS dick move by senatorial standards to come out and say "yeah you're wholly qualified, but gently caress you I'm voting against you anyway because we disagree ideologically" Oh I don't care about that part, the supreme court is a superlegislature, of course you shouldn't put people who are going to legislate wrong up there that's just common sense. You wouldn't ignore ideology when voting for a member of congress would you. It's just how twisted his ideology is. A milquetoast public defender is objectionable, another racist rear end in a top hat who's going to rubberstamp South Carolina's voter suppression is aok Yeah I know black Republicans exist, yeah I know race is imaginary and having dark skin doesn't automatically give him solidarity with African American communities etc etc but still jeezy pete
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Apr 5, 2022 19:19
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Gumball Gumption posted:I wouldn't be shocked if it gets kicked until 2024. Biden obviously doesn't want to do this but the issue is important to the party. Either you use it to help win in 2024 or you hand the problem to a Republican who they assume would never support forgiving debt so then the Republicans get saddled with being the ones to actually restart things. Funny/Sad option of course is doing that and then having Republicans forgive the debt because they will get more from forgiving than not. The finance sector donated about 2.5x as much money to the Biden campaign during the 2020 election cycle, so I imagine he is about 2.5x more likely to stand against forgiveness than whatever republican we get in 2024
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Apr 5, 2022 19:23
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:But, the permanent decision is what they can/will do executively. They already accepted that it is dead legislatively. Ah, wasn't aware that there was that it didn't have a legislative chance. While looking into that, I found two instances of relevant legislation. One is part of the stimulus, which removes taxation from loan forgiveness, so that someone doesn't have to pay several thousand dollars for having their loan forgiven. That already passed. The other is a bill that directs the Secretary of Education to forgive certain debts in a means-tested way. I don't understand why that one is necessary. Couldn't that be an executive order? Edit: referring to this: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/2034/text
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Apr 5, 2022 19:30
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Manager Hoyden posted:The finance sector donated about 2.5x as much money to the Biden campaign during the 2020 election cycle, so I imagine he is about 2.5x more likely to stand against forgiveness than whatever republican we get in 2024 Forgiveness wouldn't apply to private loans and finance companies aren't directly involved in federal student loans since Obamacare. Ironically, some private student loan companies have been calling on Biden to forgive federal student debt and make the moratorium apply only to middle and low income households because high income people with expensive degrees, like doctors and lawyers, have a lot of supplemental private loans because federally subsidized loans have a cap on the total amount you can take, and they aren't looking for as many supplemental private student loans while their federal ones are paused. Republicans have also been trying to get the moratorium ended since the end of last year over costs: quote:Republicans have been urging the Biden administration to restart student loan payments over concerns about the growing cost to taxpayers. The various extensions of the payment pause have cost more than $100 billion, according to Education Department estimates. The galaxy brain play would be for Republicans to forgive all student debt, not issue any more federal student loans, and then have Medicaid expansion collapse after the funding source runs out.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:32
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Koos Group posted:Ah, wasn't aware that there was that it didn't have a legislative chance. That's what the whole legal question is about. The 1965 Higher Education Act says the Department of Education can unilaterally forgive debts, but the law also uses "all debts" and the three different types of student loans that existed then, but don't exist now, interchangeably. So, there is confusion about whether it "really" allows them to forgive all debts if they specifically mentioned only three kinds of debt. Plus, congress has passed laws like this one allowing and directing the Secretary of Education to forgive some loans, so if congress has passed multiple laws directing the secretary to forgive loans, then Congress couldn't have intended for the 1965 Higher Education Act to allow the Secretary full discretion on forgiving any loans or why would they have passed all the following laws? But, the plain reading of the law says "all debts," even if they also use it to mean those three specific types of loans in other passages. So, a literal reading would imply that he could.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:37
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Also, here is the official announcement. Moratorium extended until September. https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1511399646568103938
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Apr 5, 2022 19:42
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Also, here is the official announcement. Starting repayment even closer to the midterm is certainly a choice
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Apr 5, 2022 19:44
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Manager Hoyden posted:Starting repayment even closer to the midterm is certainly a choice They’ll get paused again
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Apr 5, 2022 19:47
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Manager Hoyden posted:Starting repayment even closer to the midterm is certainly a choice According to Klain, they are going to extend the pause until they "do something" about student loan debt. They will almost surely kick the can down the road again by September. So, expect frequent 4-month extensions and uncertainty for a while. A lack of clarity for multiple years is not the best way to handle it, but at least the federal government's inability to do anything is benefiting people for once.
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Apr 5, 2022 19:49
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Yeah, it's fairly obvious that Biden's going to extend it past the mid-terms, mainly so that young people will say "boy, that Joe Biden sure is great!" and vote for the Democrats. I'll have MY student loans paid off in July, as the interest rate for those who do pay is at 0%, and I've been making inroads. 
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Apr 5, 2022 19:58
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Macron beat Le Pen by 33% in 2017. He's polling 6% above her in the upcoming election. A lot of people say they are casting protest votes for Le Pen over inflation, high energy prices, and Covid restrictions. It is possible that a lot of that chunk doesn't actually follow through with voting for Le Pen as a protest if they don't like either, but 6% is within the realm of a Brexit-style upset, margin of error in polling, or slight surge/decline in turnout impacting the winner. The French socialist party has completely collapsed, despite having the Presidency prior to Macron. They are polling in the single digits and the even more left-wing candidate from the "France Unbowed" party is in the low double digits. Even if they combined their vote total, they wouldn't make it to the runoff. The center right French parties have all split and Le Pen is likely to make it to the runoff with only 21% of the vote. https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1511419192750317573 Edit: Wrong thread, but a French exit from the E.U. and ending free trade with the U.S. would be a big deal for the U.S. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 20:10
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Edward Mass posted:Yeah, it's fairly obvious that Biden's going to extend it past the mid-terms, mainly so that young people will say "boy, that Joe Biden sure is great!" and vote for the Democrats. And if that doesn't work and they lose the midterms the failure to forgive student loans is on voters and Republicans.
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Apr 5, 2022 20:34
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Politico has a briefing on HIT Strategies' focus groups of two of the Dems' strongest bases: Black voters & young voters. Lots of "lying eyes" results: quote:Democrats are desperately trying to understand what’s roiling the electorate heading into a brutal midterm environment. I'd love to hear what the group said about America's Darkest Day, 1/6, Never Forget. 
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Apr 5, 2022 21:03
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I'm sure if the Democrats went around talking about how terrible everything is it would be a real electoral boon for them.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:06
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Well, whistling Happy Days Are Here Again & pointing to bridge repairs ain't doing the trick, either. On the bright side, voters have internalized the Rotating Villains strategy rather than the party's M.O. for the last decade-plus. Just a couple bad apples, nothing that Voting Harder can't fix!
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Apr 5, 2022 21:12
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Mellow Seas posted:I'm sure if the Democrats went around talking about how terrible everything is it would be a real electoral boon for them. Who are you even arguing with? This crime stuff is interesting. It and that article posted about Sacramento show how there's really no winning. Our national myth of law and order runs too deep.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:12
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Mellow Seas posted:I'm sure if the Democrats went around talking about how terrible everything is it would be a real electoral boon for them. Highlighting the good things and not emphasizing the bad things is an obvious thing that everyone does. The problem, as it relates to the economy, is that wages did outpace inflation for almost everyone for the first 9 months of the Biden administration. People really were better off in almost every scenario in June. But, for the last 5 months, inflation has outpaced wage growth by about 2%. So, people are actually losing ground. They haven't actually lost a ton of ground on net, but nobody cares about the net difference when it has been 5 months in a row of reduced real income and people don't know when it is going to stop. The economy is obviously not worse than it was in 2009, but the uncertainty and no end in sight makes people feel way worse than a single large instance of economic collapse.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:13
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Willa Rogers posted:On the bright side, voters have internalized the Rotating Villains strategy rather than the party's M.O. for the last decade-plus. Just a couple bad apples, nothing that Voting Harder can't fix! Actually voters never believed in "rotating villains" because it's a stupid contrarian conspiracy theory, which is only held dear by terminally online weirdos and supported by no actual evidence, hth Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Highlighting the good things and not emphasizing the bad things is an obvious thing that everyone does. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 21:13
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I love how "actually fixing the problems making things suck" is off the table We have to say everything is fine, because obviously just admitting this sucks is going to make us look bad
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Apr 5, 2022 21:14
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Mellow Seas posted:Actually voters never believed in "rotating villains" because it's a stupid contrarian conspiracy theory, which is only held dear by terminally online weirdos and supported by no actual evidence, hth Way to pretend we haven't been over this repeatedly, make no arguments much less new ones, and just call a bunch of posters stupid. Real persuasive.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:16
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Mellow Seas posted:Actually voters never believed in "rotating villains" because it's a stupid contrarian conspiracy theory, which is only held dear by terminally online weirdos and supported by no actual evidence, hth Nah, it's real, as the Dems showed during the crafting of the ACA when the Senate voted to pass reforms like drug-price controls with GOP ayes but Reid stripped the reforms from the bill anyway, because Obama had already promised PhRMA they wouldn't be in the final bill. Also how Menendez & a bunch of House Dems killed meaningful drug-price controls from BBB. The party's rot goes way beyond Sinema & Manchin.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:19
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Willa Rogers posted:Nah, it's real, as the Dems showed during the crafting of the ACA when the Senate voted to pass reforms like drug-price controls with GOP ayes but Reid stripped the reforms from the bill anyway, because Obama had already promised PhRMA they wouldn't be in the final bill. But "rotating villains" brings that idea to absurd and unsupportable levels. Where it gets silly is when you claim that anything that can't pass with 50 votes also wouldn't pass with 52 or 55 or even more (so might as well just let Republicans win all the elections, to "send a message"). Or when you say that the President spent months lobbying for a policy he secretly wanted to fail the entire time. I don't need a conspiracy theory to tell me that Bob Menendez and Henry Cuellar are pieces of poo poo. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Apr 5, 2022 |
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Apr 5, 2022 21:24
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The average rental price of a one-bedroom apartment is now a whopping $1684/month, requiring an annual salary of $60,000 by the common 3x metric used by landlords & property managers.Mellow Seas posted:Or when you say that the President spent months lobbying for a policy he secretly wanted to fail the entire time. Can you be a little more explicit in what you're referring to here? I don't recall Obama spending months lobbying for drug-price reforms after he made his secret deals with PhRMA to preclude him.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:35
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Willa Rogers posted:Can you be a little more explicit in what you're referring to here? I don't recall Obama spending months lobbying for drug-price reforms after he made his secret deals with PhRMA to preclude him. If the only citations of "rotating villains" that came up here were about Obamacare negotiations from 13 years ago then you wouldn't have brought it up in the thread today in response to voters (correctly) blaming Manchin and Sinema for Biden's legislative problems.
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Apr 5, 2022 21:43
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Sinema also came right out and said there are more democrats hiding behind her skirts so we know rotating villain theory is true. Hall passes are also a well-attested strategy. But it doesn't actually matter now whether rotating villain theory is true or false (it's true). Anti-gerrymandering and other voter rights laws can't pass, whatever the reason, and since Democrats are cruising for a midterm shellacking and Republicans have gerrymandered themselves into control of enough states to overturn every electoral college vote if they want, we're looking at the last Democrat controlled federal government for our lifetimes. There's no need to primary bad dems anymore
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Apr 5, 2022 21:46
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Calling the theory "politicians talk to each other and make plans about how they vote to protect their image" a conspiracy theory is really stretching the term conspiracy theory. Great way to just attack any possibility you don't want to consider though.
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